The 450 Wolves looks a superb probability race with only 2 horses under 16/1 I would choose Crafty Roberto to place here as he has 2 all weather 2nd places in maidens to his name. 6 runners and 3 places means it looks like a great probability that the 2 market leaders, Crafty Roberto and Falmouth Bay for Johnston/Fanning, will both place.
7pm's Juliper league match between Den Bosch and Fortuna Sittard is in another illiquid market. Over 1.5 goals is 1.13 but only £400 available at this price. Over 2.5 goals is 1.36 with Bet365 so I would go no lower than this with Betfair. I would only use this market to trade incase it is 1-1 for a concerted period.
Faith, alternatively, in Den Bosch winning? They have beaten Fortuna 4-0 already, and 80% of Fortuna's away matches have seen them concede 3 goals minimum. They have won 2 in their last 5, but one was against bottom side,
*****ONE A DAY - 7pm - Den Bosch v Fortuna Sittard -back over 1.5 goals at 1.13******
You could back Den Bosch but they have drawn so many lately this over 1.5 goals should compensate. Place bets nearer to 7pm.
I think I will place back Crafty Roberto too today in a 6 horse race for 3 places and 2 only under 16/1 which should leave a 1.20 total bet for the day ( 450 Wolves)
Arsenal won eventually. Nice enhanced trade for City as Notts county took the lead. And Real Madrid cocked up yet again, scuppering a nicely engineered multiple . Ones to avoid until Higuan returns.. They really are missing him as noone else seems to be able to score a goal.
6pm - FC Copenhagen v Aalesunds - 1.39 home in an illiquid market.Another Norwegian friendly team in opposition didn't stop Copenhagen scoring 5 for the 2nd friendly on the trot. More today? That makes the 1.39 a very tasty price.
7pm - Den Bosch v Fortuna Sittard - 1.33 home - the over 2.5 boys returned to typical ways last week after an anomolous 1-0 win over Almere. Fortuna are back and are priced to get another battering.Den Bosch are 8th, Fortuna are 2nd from bottom.
Den Bosch have only won 1 of their last 8, and have drawn 4, won 3 and lost 3 at home.
60% of their matches have been overs.
LLDDDDLW - we see the problem. But all draws have been score draws. Over 1.5 goals therefore has a good chance.
LDDL at home last 4, but these matches have predominantly been against top 6. Outside the top 6, home scorelines have been 3-1 3 times, 3-3, and 1-1. This augurs well for the 1.33 coming in.
Fortuna we know all about, all bar one match has been over 2.5 goals.
The record remains 100% and look at the goals conceded away ( going from top of table matches played down) -Fortuna have conceded 4,2,3,5,3,3,3,3,3,2 - note that Den Bosch outside the top 6 tend to score........3!
1.13 over 1.5 goals is good, 1.42 over 2.5 goals is speculative but given Fortuna away and Den Bosch having already won 4-0 at Fortuna, this has a great chance of coming in.
145 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Ballabriggs, 5/1 Kings Grey, 5/1 Yes Tom, 10/1 Kingsmoss, 10/1 Murrell, 10/1 Vivona Hill, 14/1 Cheatingsideoftown, 20/1 Collyns Avenue, 20/1 Comeththehour, 20/1 Howizee, 20/1 Knockando, 25/1 Golfer´s Crossing, 33/1 Lewlaur Supreme, 33/1 Moufatango, 66/1 Darkan Road, 66/1 Forcefield, 100/1 Minnigaff, 100/1 Shoal Bay Dreamer.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not too many of these make much appeal. Yes Tom and Kings Grey are sure to win races over hurdles but this could go to recent hurdle winner and smart chaser BALLABRIGGS (nap), who travels well enough in his races to be effective over this shorter trip and who is fully effective on a sound surface. [Richard Young]
Interesting price gapper but a multiple winner and these winning sequences often end spectacularly. One of only 3 under 14/1
215 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Premier Sagas, 3/1 Benny Be Good, 3/1 Catch Bob, 14/1 Ballycolin, 14/1 Steady Tiger, 16/1 Bertie Milan, 20/1 Mister Marker, 33/1 Pericam.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There shouldn't be much between Benny Be Good and Catch Bob, who finished first and second respectively at Sedgefield in November but the pair are taken on with PREMIER SAGAS, who posted his best effort over C&D in a race that is working out well and he has fine claims at these weights. [Richard Young]
Only 3 under 16/1 here in this 8 runner and 3 places race. Clear round required over bigger fences.
450 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Crafty Roberto, 9/4 Falmouth Bay, 7/2 Sofias Number One, 12/1 Miss Firefox, 14/1 Unwrapit, 20/1 Rafaaf, 100/1 Broughtons Fawn, 100/1 Ivy And Gold.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CRAFTY ROBERTO was unlucky to catch a live one when clear second at Lingfield nine days ago and may make it third time lucky, though Falmouth Bay is an obvious potential obstacle.[Paul Johnson]
With Sofias Number One a significant non runner, this should open things up for Crafty and Falmouth - 3 places and 6 runners makes this all the more appealing.
SHORTLIST
6pm - FC Copenhagen v Aalesunds - 1.39 - in running but very illiquid market - Copenhagen have scored 10 in their last 2 friendlies. Over 4.5 goals therefore is one for speculative traders. This is a friendly and we know little of the merits of Aalesunds, nor the venue and much else.IN RUNNING THOUGH7pm - Den Bosch v Fortuna Sittard - 1.33 home -only 3 wins all season but Fortuna surprised 3rd placed Waalwijk and 9th placed Caambur at home . Playing 8th placed Den Bosch.
Trust Den Bosch to replicate recent 4-0 win at Fortuna? But Den have drawn too many recently.
In 8 out of 10 away, Fortuna have conceded at least 3 so a goals bet? 1.13 over 1.5 goals is unadventurous and should be safe.
Over 3.5 goals is the call for the speculative trader.
450 WOLVES - the most interesting race of the day sees an original 8 runner race reduced to 6 runners. Original 3rd fav and one of only 3 under 10/1 is a non runner
NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
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