Sunday 2 January 2011

3/1

Real Madrid always have to be taken seriously in yet another must win . Of the horses, I would default to 340 Ayr and Close House - it is an ideal place only race with 8 runners and 3 places but with 6 debutants and my inability to advise re the market moves nearer the off means this will be another no bet day for me.
I have been guilty of forcing bets in the past that have cost me so I will not give a bet today.




Yesterday was one of those bets where you could not really trade, as 2-0 was arrived at late in the match with no goals scored in the first half. So great thanks to Levante for getting a goal to bring over 2.5 goals in.

3pm - Mansfield v Altrincham - 1.41 home - 2009 and 2010 head to heads 3 wins for Mansfield and a draw. Most recent match in 2010 was 4-0 - I am not too confident about betting english conference.


BETTING FORECAST: Evs Close House, 6/1 Koultas King, 10/1 Porridge, 10/1 Samstown, 12/1 Jilly Anne, 16/1 Miss Fernietickles, 16/1 Playing Truant.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Tobetall could prove best of the unraced brigade but CLOSE HOUSE, just touched off at Huntingdon on his debut, looks the safest option.[Andrew Mount]

6 of the 8 have no form and Close Home is 1/2 now in the live betting with next best at 6/1 - this is an imperssive price gap were it not for the fact that this is a bumper and the proverbial dark horses may make themselves known in the betting nearer the off.

From a place only perspective, it is a great race ( like yesterday) with 8 runners and 3 places, but I must reiterate that bumpers ideally require market consultation throughout the day.


105 CORK

BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Sublimity, 9/4 On The Way Out, 6/1 Newmill, 25/1 Kilflora, 33/1 Run For Sol.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The race-conditions are overwhelmingly in favour of SUBLIMITY who is accustomed to plying his trade at the highest level. The ground is a bit of a worry but he should have the resources to cope with On The Way Out who would get a stone from him in a handicap. [Alan Sweetman]

Very interesting race this one which should be a 3 horse race for 2 places.Kilflora is a non runner but the market has reacted strangley by cutting the outsiders to 7/1 and 10/1 - still this should be a 2 horse race but Spotlight recounts "the ground is a bit of a worry"


315 CORK

BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Morning Supreme, 4/1 Killultagh Queen, 7/1 Boragh Princess, 14/1 Booley Bay, 14/1 Six Of Us, 16/1 Clever Creation, 16/1 Uncommited, 20/1 Bleudawn, 20/1 Tarrawarra, 25/1 Florida Pet, 33/1 Mill Hill Suzi, 33/1 Rudi Rudirudi, 50/1 Deise Island, 50/1 Miss Taggle.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Willie Mullins has a strong hand here, and it would not be a surprise to see his pair complete a one-two.MORNING SUPREME looks superior to Killultagh Queen. Best of the remainder is probably Boragh Princess. [Alan Sweetman]


Only 4 under 20/1 here and Willie Mullins should get something out of this race - this is a mares beginners chase so really not an ideal betting medium but if we were to hope on a lot of deadwood then this looks a good race for Morning Supreme with a clear round.

A fall at the 3rd last saw Morning supreme unfinished last time out on chase debut - the analysis of that race points to the horse running very well and jumping well up to that point.

315 SOUTHWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Exopuntia, 5/2 Always Dazzling, 3/1 Positivity, 14/1 Amary, 14/1 Montego Breeze, 25/1 Noble Attitude.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Positivity and Always Dazzling both make some appeal, but EXOPUNTIA (nap) has taken to this surface and did well given how much use she had made of her over 1m here last time.[Paul Smith]


The front 3 cannot be split pretty much and Amary has moved into 8/1 so a messy race but a probability race all the same






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