2/1

For me it is a choice between Barcelona over 2.5 goals or Dubai Hills. The former would have to be traded, as a 2-0 scoreline should see a rapid decrease in the over 2.5 goals odds. No Messi today

Dubai Hills looks too good to be true and that is a concern on the fibresand. Look at the plusses

• consistently placed under today's jockey
• 12 day course and distance winner
• has run at Southwell last twice winning convincingly and near 3rd
• 8 runners and 3 places ( ideal place only race)

*****ONE A DAY - Barcelona v Levante - back over 2.5 goals at 1.29 - do consider trading if very early goal or 2-0*****





130pm - Chelsea v Aston Villa - 1.27 home - a win takes Chelsea temporarily 3rd today against a Villa, as you read a couple of days ago, who are shipping goals and in disarray under Houllier.

LLDDDL ended with an unconvincing 1-0 home win v Bolton for Chelsea so really they are not out of the woods just yet.

0-0 away at Villa already this season for Chelsea. This rather keeps in line with their recent ,ahem, goalscoring exploits scoring 0,1,0,0,1,1,1,1,1 in their last 9 matches.

WLDW at home in last 4 for Chelsea with 2 1-0 wins, a 3-0 loss and a 1-1 draw.

In Villa's 7 matches away to top 12 sides, they have lost the lot.

LLWLLDLLL away for Villa.

LLLWL in last 5 matches for Villa conceding 4,3,1,2,4

3pm - Betis v Gimnastic - 1.37 home LDDLDWDDDLLD - all those draws are the reason Gimnastic are 2nd from bottom so top team Betis's 1.37 may look a little less appealing with this information.
Betis have only lost 2 all season - WWWWWWDW at home for Betis is excellent.
100% of Betis's home matches have been over 2.5 goals.
88% in both home and away matches, so if we were a little worried about the draw, why not go neutral and look to goals bets?
4,2,3,2,4,3,2,3 scored at home by Betis should help the goals bet.
3-0 win against 20th and 3-0 away against 22nd ( Gimnastic are 21st) should be what Betis are capable of.
LLLDLWDL away for Gimnastic - one win and only 2 draws so perhaps we can change our initial concern re the draws?
Gimnastic have lost 1-0 at home to 2nd and 1-0 away to 3rd ( Betis are top)
I hope you can see this is a match that is conflicting in its form, making it not very "readable"

3pm - Falkirk v Stirling - 1.35 home - 3-0 and 5-0 wins for Falkirk in 2010 head to heads makes the 1.35 look relatively big. A number of recent postponements may leave both teams a little rusty. Slirling have lost last 5 matches, conceding at least 2.

4pm - Al Ahli (Dubai) v AC Milan - 1.43 away - no real point in comparing form with this match, suffice to say we know AC Milan and really, if they could be arsed, they should win with ease.

5pm - Barcelona v Levante - 1.08 home - the Messi - ah is not playing today and he usually weighs in with 1 or 2 goals. No recent head to heads mean that Levante look to be newcomers. Put to the sword by 5 and 4 in 2008 and 2007 head to heads.
Barca have won their last 5 at home on the trot and in their last 10 matches ( all wins) have scored 2,2,5,3,3,8,5,3,5,5
Levante in the Cup were beaten 8-0 by Real Madrid - was this a full Levante side? If so, then this should tie in with what Barca should be capable of today ( even without Messi)
WWWDWWWWW - these are the stats for Barcelona at half time in their last 9 matches - the draw was 1-1 v Villareal which Barca ended up winning 3-1.
I look to this market to enhance the match odds . 1.33 halftime/fulltime could be worth a bet with this in mind?
Barca have only conceded 5 in the first half and scored 22v , while in the 2nd half they have scored 21 and conceded 4, so the half time inclusion for a win bet looks reasonable.
With Messi out, I would need to see Villa and Pedro playing ( 2nd and 3rd top scorers)
LWDLLLLD away for Levante. Yet to meet any of the top 4 away from home so can only gauge from Real's Cup win.
Levante have conceded 6 in the first 15 minutes in their matches which is good news for Barca who will dominate possession
2-1, 4-1, 2-1, 3-1 the away defeats against top 12 for Levante - they have got all their points away to 15th and lower the league.
Surely Barca must replicate the 2-1 at least ( perhaps without conceding the 1 goal.)
1.3 over 2.5 goals might have to rely solely on Barca unless goals backers get lucky with a Levante opener.

6pm - Porto v Nacional - 1.31 home - league Cup - I would have been very interested were this a league match. 1-0, 1-0, 0-0 scorelines away for Nacional in 3 of their last 4 away matches mean they could play tight.

815pm - Benfica v Maritimo - 1.35 home - another league cup match.

150 FOLKSTONE

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Ballybach, 11/4 Fiftyonefiftyone, 11/4 Four Strong Winds, 20/1 Raspbary, 40/1 Stealing Time.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Fiftyonefiftyone and Four Strong Winds both have potential to improve on their existing chase form but BALLYBACH proved quite useful over hurdles and is an interesting prospect for chases.[Chris Wilson]

3 horse race and another probability race and , naturally, the strike rate for place only betting in these types of races should be high given the probabilities. A maiden chase though is quite offputting. Note, too, that Jonjo O 'Neill has a fancy and an outsider ( these tactics are rife for stable gambles)

325 FOLKSTONE

BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Peveril, 11/4 Cannington Brook, 6/1 Galaxy Rock, 8/1 Lord Generous, 20/1 Laborec, 25/1 Or Sing About.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Cannington Brook will be a tough nut to crack if back to his best but PEVERIL is an exciting chasing prospect and is difficult to oppose.[Chris Wilson]

2 horses under 12/1 here in another beginners chase. Faith in the market here and Peveril to place in the first 2 with a clear round?

1255 NAAS

BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Cadspeed, 11/4 Prince Erik, 100/30 Uncle Tom Cobley, 12/1 Dundrum, 20/1 Groody Hill, 25/1 Puddencullinan, 33/1 Comaun Buck.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CABSPEED (nap) stands out here and can make all to land this nice pot. Prince Erik is readily opposable over 2m and ought to find Uncle Tom Cobley difficult to beat to reach the frame. [Johnny Ward]

Mullins/Townend on the fav in a race which should be 3 horses for 2 places.

100 SOUTHWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Dubai Hills, 15/2 The Lock Master, 8/1 This Ones For Eddy, 14/1 Fault, 14/1 Peter´s Gift, 16/1 Headache, 16/1 Sirjosh, 20/1 Elusive Warrior.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: DUBAI HILLS is worth the chance to confirm his last run doesn't flatter him given it was won in a very good time. This Ones For Eddy might be next best.[Graeme North]

big price gapper here and an 8 runner and 3 place race , so of great interest. Has won at Southwell on standard and standard to slow.A 12 day course and distance winner. All looks too good to be true!!

This Ones for Eddy is now 4/1 and a possible gamble on sirjosh, but is there any reason to opposeDubai Hills here , despite the 10 lbs rise?

130 SOUTHWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Bilko Pak, 7/2 Honkers Bonkers, 10/1 Miss Moneypenni, 14/1 Local Diktator, 16/1 Blade Pirate.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BILKO PAK hasn't got any previous experience here but his form is well in advance of his rivals and he ought to be able to bounce back to winning ways. Honkers Bonkers is the obvious danger.[Paul Smith]

Bilko Pak hardened in the live market but has no Southwell experience.

SHORTLIST

130pm - Chelsea v Aston Villa - 1.27 home - is Chelsea meeting Villa at the right time here? They have lost 4 of last 5 and Chelsea won last match at home 1-0 after a series of poor performances.
I am worried about Chelsea's goalscoring in their recent matches. Poor!

3pm - Betis v Gimnastic - 1.37 home - 100% of Betis home matches have been over 2.5 goals. Slight concern that Gimnastic have kept it tight away to top teams. 1.29 over 1.5 goals if Betis can continue the form of 4,2,3,2,4,3,2,3 scored at home

5pm - Barcelona v Levante - 1.08 home - Levante have been adept at keeping it tight at half time but they have not met the top 4 yet.To enhance the odds over 2.5 goals could be the option here but is reliant, I think, on a Messi less Barca. 1.3 over 2.5 goals.

150 FOLKSTONE - 3 horses for 2 places but a maiden chase -Ballybach is the favourite here in the place market at 1.36
1255 NAAS - Cadspeed represents the strong Mullins/Townend partnership -only 2 to be placed though - novice chase makes this difficult to enthuse about - simply decide to play the probabilities or not.
100 SOUTHWELL - 8 runners and 3 places makes this very interesting. 2 horses under 10/1 and Dubai Hills is odds on - a course and distance winner 12 days ago.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
3pm - Betis v Gimnastic - 1.37 home - over 1.5 goals is 1.29 but it testifies to Gimnastic's performances v the top 4 ( 2 1-0 defeats) - BUT faith in Betis's home scoring record-they have scored 2 or more at home all season.
Probably not one a day because of this apparent conflict.

5pm - Barcelona v Levante - 1.08 home - without Messi - how will this affect the goals scored?
Levante have lost 2-1 or more against top 13 sides - surely Barca can at least replicate this?
Over 2.5 goals therefore enters the equation at 1.30

2 probability bets today so you take your chance , particularly as they are chases.
This leaves the 100 SOUTHWELL and Dubai Hills. This looks just too good - 12 day course and distance winner, 8 runners, 3 places ( ideal place only race) - was Dubai Hill's superb performance last time out down to the surface ( standard to slow?) 1.18 to place. Adam Carter retains the ride.








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