Clear round of jumping assumed and falls cannot be legislated for.
Kerada placed and a pleasing 1.2 at the off in the place only market was quite welcome given the task a 4/11 favourite had in a 4 horse race to beat 2 others to place.
A day of rather obscure football matches but there may be some standout stats that we can exploit ( along the lines of yesterday's Dutch Cup where 89% of Breda's away matches were over 2.5 goals.
12pm - HJK Helsinki v Haka - 1.36 home - a friendly between 2 teams in the Finnish top flight. - Helsinki have scored 3 goals in 3 of their last 4 matches against Haka, but the friendly status of this match brings motivation into the equation.
12pm - Hong Kong FC v Citizen - 1.29 away - it's a first for me, the Hong Kong top flight!! The head to heads between these 2 start with 2 matches in 2006 , then there is a big gap to the next in 2010. I suspect Hong Kong FC have been playing in lower leagues in the interim ( only because Citizen are 1.29 away)
October 2010 saw Citizen win 4-1 and they are priced to repeat the dose today. As you would suspect with such a league as this one, there is little liquidity. I would opt for goals here Hong Kong have lost 10, drawn 1 and won 1 ( and that was a league cup match)
In the league at home recently, Hong Kong have conceded 2,3,3,2,3,4,4 - they look shocking - remember this is HOME FORM!!!!
Citizen's only loss in their last 12 matches has come in a league cup match.Citizen's have won 4 in their last 5 in all competitions away from home.
I think we are missing a trick here as this looks a great game for goals, but is wholly illiquid meaning you will not get the true prices.
1pm - Maccabi Herzliya v Maccabi Ironi Jatt - 1.31 home - Israeli 2nd flight and I don't think I want to push my luck by looking at such obscure leagues as this one. - away side have only won 2 of their last 12. Home side have only lost 2 of their last 12 ( both 1-0 losses) so look to justify the short odds.
545pm - Waalwijk v Den Bosch - 1.59 home - 3rd against 10th and these Juliper league matches are investigating as I do every Friday - goals are the norm. Waalwijk have a +23 goal difference so we see their strengths immediately.
12 of Waalwijk's last 12 matches have been over 2.5 goals.
All of their last 10 matches have been over 2.5 goals.
Waalwijk have scored 5,1,3,2,5,1,4,2,4,3 in their last 10 matches.
89% of their home matches have finished over 2.5 goals .
78% of Den Bosch's away matches have been over 2.5 goals.
These are impressive goals stats. Pretty much 9 out of 10 of Waalwijk's home matches and 8 out of 10 of Den Bosch's away matches are ending with 3 goals or more.
DDDDW last 5 a slight concern for over 2.5 goal backers as 3 of the draws were 1-1, but for safer over 1.5 goals matches all bar 2 of Den Bosch's 19 league games this season have seen that bet come in, and 18/19 of Waalwijk's matches have finished over 1.5 goals. Waalwijk's dropped points home and away seem to come when playing sides 6th -10th home and away ( draw, draw, loss, draw, draw in home and away matches) - indeed it was 2-2 against Den Bosch last time.So perhaps a neutral goals bet here. 1.15 over 1.5 goals looks great for this in running match.
7pm - Fortuna Sittard v FC Eindhoven - the amazing over 2.5 goals 100% stat was broken last week for Fortuna because they played a team equally as bad, but will this goals stat return tonight? Back to normal it would seem! Head to heads between these 2 have all been over 2.5 goals in the last 5 most recent matches.3,3,6,5,4,3 scored in total in those matches. Not in running so we do not have over 1.5 goals option. the 1-0 v Almere last week was bottom 2 sides meeting so was never going to be a goal fest. 1.69 over 2.5 goals tonight is tempting albeit not in running, BUT Eindhoven's recent scorelines are anything but over 2.5 goals territory - 0-0, 1-1, 0-0, 4-1, 1-0, 1-0
But they are playing inferior opposition tonight. A less than clear cut match I think.
7pm - Go Ahead Eagles v Almere - 1.41 home - again not in running so not really appealing although Go ahead should find Almere easy meat at home today. 8,3,1,3 scored in the 4 home matches against bottom 8 sides.
Almere away have lost all bar 2 matches.
7pm - Sparta Rotterdam v Roosendaal - 1.58 home - 6 draws and 4 wins at home for Sparta so Roosendaal more likely a lay here.
Sparta lost to Roosendaal at Roosendaal 3-0.
Away to top 9 ( Sparta are 7th) Roos have lost the lot.
155 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Brunston, 5/2 Andhaar, 5/2 Milgen Bay, 6/1 Whispering Death, 16/1 Drop The Hammer, 25/1 Dennis Doyle, 66/1 Artic Night, 66/1 December, 100/1 Okalydokely, 100/1 Perjury.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Andhaar has more to do under his big penalty while Milgen Bay, just as he did in bumpers, failed to build on his hurdling debut effort at the second attempt. Both will have their work cut out against newcomer BRUNSTON if he proves as effective over hurdles as he was on the Flat.[Frank Carter]
There are only 4 horses under 25/1 in the betting here - rely on these 4 novice hurdlers for the 3 places?
305 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Empire Levant, 5/2 Palawi, 7/2 Franklino, 16/1 Cabal, 200/1 Farmers Glory, 200/1 Kai Broon.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks a good opportunty for the useful ex-French middle-distance performer EMPIRE LEVANT to build on his encouraging hurdling debut at Newbury last month. The penalised Palawi can follow him home.[Adrian Cook]
3 horses under 16/1 here and yet another probability bet here. Trust the Nicholls horse Empire Levant to finish in the top 2.
100 FONTWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 8/15 Definity, 9/4 Straw Bear, 9/1 Prince Du Beury, 20/1 L´homme De Nuit, 50/1 Paddy The Yank.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Former high-class hurdler Straw Bear will be no pushover judged on a fair enough effort back from a year off over C&D this month but DEFINITY showed comparable form on his chase debut at Exeter in December and has by far the greater capacity for improvement. [Mel Cullinan]
Yet another probability bet with the front 2 horses 4/9 and 9/4 with next best 12/1. Will they dominate? Definity has only had the one chase run but represents Nicholls. Straw Bear is very well known from his high class hurdling exploits. He has had the intermittent chase ventures but no standout form there.
Faith in the markets and a clear round assumed for these "L" platers over the bigger chase fences.
115 GOWRAN PARK
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Plan A, 6/1 Scottish Boogie, 8/1 Knight Eagle, 8/1 Luddenmore, 8/1 Rocky Wednesday, 12/1 Narima, 12/1 Rainforest Magic, 12/1 Silver Shuffle, 14/1 Fammi Sognare, 14/1 Horsewithnoname, 14/1 Total Reality, 14/1 Violinist, 16/1 Luck Pennie, 20/1 Bondage, 20/1 Opening Nite, 25/1 Priors Gold, 33/1 Green Energy, 66/1 Abialright, 66/1 Dromore Lass, 66/1 Ms Whatshername.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Gordon Elliott is responsible for a quarter of the field here, and the experience gained by PLAN A in Britain should help to give him an edge over Scottish Boogie and Knight Eagle, a useful Flat handicapper who was let down by his jumping at Limerick. [Brian Fleming]
If Gordon Elliot has 5 runners, then either his shortest price will be the main representative or this will be an engineered gamble on one of the bigger priced of the contingent.11/8 - - - 6/1 price gapper is Plan A for Gordon Elliott
Priors Gold and Green energy are the 2 bigger priced Elliott runners.
145 GOWRAN PARK
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Mourad, 7/2 Powerstation, 9/2 Jumbo Rio, 7/1 Oscar Dan Dan, 12/1 Footy Facts, 16/1 Moskova.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The evidence suggests that MOURAD is developing into a very capable staying hurdler, and he should be able to uphold recent Leopardstown form with \Powerstation. His Hatton's Grace run gives him the beating of his other key-rivals, Oscar Dan Dan and Jumbo Rio. [Alan Sweetman]
mourad is a previous one a dayer representing the Mullins stable. Some really good quality horses here in opposition will ensure a decent place only price, as will the fact this is a 2 place race.
4/7 - - - - 5/1 price gapper.
330 GOWRAN PARK
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Tharawaat, 9/4 The Hurl, 11/4 Quadrillon, 7/1 Kakagh, 33/1 Comicbookcharacter, 40/1 Quick De Maux.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This look a suitable opportunity for THARAWAAT to take another step up the novice ladder following an emphatic win at Down Royal. The main danger may come from The Hurl, providing that his jumping does not let him down. [Alan Sweetman]
4 horses under 33/1 here and again a probability race with 2 places and 4 likely contenders.
110 LINGFIELD
ETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Chevise, 11/2 Welsh Inlet, 6/1 Braehead, 8/1 Upark Flyer, 33/1 Fantale.SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CHEVISE has a clear chance at the weights and is hard to oppose. Welsh Inlet may be second best.[Graeme North]
Huge price gapper here given field size, but, Gawd Elp Us, this is a class 6 5 furlong all weather claimer!
SHORTLIST
12pm - Hong Kong FC v Citizen - 1.29 away - A more liquid market and this is a one a dayer as far as goals is concerned. No money in the markets on Betfair. Bwin seems the only bookie with odds alternatives to Betfair.
545pm - Waalwijk v Den Bosch - 1.59 home - 89% of home team's home matches and 78% of away side's away matches have been over 2.5 goals. This makes over 1.5 goals at 1.15 very enticing.7pm - Go Ahead Eagles v Almere - 1.41 home - laying Almere here could be the way to go. Or take a chance that Go ahead continue the dominance they have had over bottom 8 sides they have played at home.
305 DONCASTER - 3 horses under 20/1 for the 2 places - assumption of a clear round as ever.8/13 Empire Levant is currently 1.2 to place in what should be a 3 for 2 places race.
100 FONTWELL - I agree with Spotlight here that Straw Bear is not as good a chaser as he is a hurdler by any stretch. By default almost, Definity is the one who should take advantage. 1.17 to place as every relies on a clear round. Last race should be noted within the context of a return after 608 days so Definity should be all the better for that return run.
145 GOWRAN PARK - Mourant looks standout here for Mullins/Townend and was a one a day success last time I chose him. Lots of familiar names in opposition today will make for a tougher race, yet all the while Mourant is a clear price gapper.
8/13 - - - -6/1 price gapper. Yet again I repeat that we must see a clear round of jumping. I suspect Mourad might be Cheltenham Festival bound? At any rate, he looks standout in price and form here.
110 LINGFIELD - Chevise has already won it would seem, quoted at 1.11 to place - standout price gapper in a small field, but the race is poor - a class 6 5 furlong claimer.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
545pm - Waalwijk v Den Bosch - over 1.5 goals at 1.15 looks great and is in an in play market.
7pm - Go Ahead Eagles v Almere - 1.41 home - probably better to lay Almere here as this is not in running. I could see Go ahead leading at some stage. But I said that about them last week in the shock loss to poor Telstar.
305 DONCASTER -Empire Levant a default choice in what should be a 3 horse race for 2 places. 1.2 reasonable to place in this context - clear round assumed.
145 GOWRAN PARK - can Mourant do it again. Only 2 places so no 3rd place safety net. 1.23 to place in a currently illiquid market.
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