I am going to chance Kerada today , as 1/3 strong favourite in a race which is 4 horses and 2 places. It could all go wrong on 2nd only chase run over a longer distance, but faith in the market - he is 1/3 for a reason
*****ONE A DAY - 300 FFOS LAS - Kerada to place - try to get around 1.14/1.15. May have to take Betfair SP*****
Faith in the market yesterday as Barca spanked Almeria again. Kaolak the choice for the day placed with ease and all of the football went as expected.
LDDW at home in the league and lost last match ( away to Utrecht 3-0) convincingly.
Breda are on a 5 match league unbeaten run, score drawing the last 2.
LLLLWD in last 5 aways.
Over 1.5 goals will cover any potential shocks I would suspect. Historically, Ajax have the edge but this is the Cup.
150 FFOS LAS
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Rangitoto, 3/1 Lucky Landing, 11/2 Doctor Foxtrot, 6/1 Charming Lad, 10/1 Fiddlededee, 12/1 Mr Moss, 33/1 Fair Rome, 33/1 Jump Up, 33/1 The Humbel Monk, 50/1 Jan Jandura, 80/1 Thomas Bell, 100/1 Ostaadi.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: RANGITOTO was impressive when winning an Irish point in this month last year and should take some beating on his hurdling debut for Paul Nicholls if ready to fire. Lucky Landing is next best. [Dave Orton]
This should concern the 6 under 33/1 and we have a Nicholls fav without a run in nearly a year. Hmmm! Rangitoto is now 2/1 and drifting which is a slight concern given the absence and Lucky Landing may be worth the place only gamble? But again, as this is a maiden hurdle, all of these horses are pretty much in the same boat - i.e. inexperienced over hurdles under race conditions.
McCain/Maguire's Lucky Landing instead? - a 75 day absence , 2 point to points the only jumps experience. 1.5 and 1.7 to place tells you all you need to know about the ifs and buts of this race.
300 FFOS LAS
BETTING FORECAST: 1/3 Kerada, 15/2 Cobbler´s Queen, 15/2 Identity Parade, 10/1 Moorlands Teri.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There is not much between all the runners on adjusted hurdles ratings but KERADA, who is the only one in obviously good form, sets a good standard and will be very hard to beat if she copes with the step up in distance. Identity Parade may give her most to do.[Frank Carter]
4 horses and 2 places here and an obvious favourite. We will get a better payout looking for the 2nd horse to place in this 50/50 race - 4 horses and 2 places. 1.15 to place for Kerada is a welcome surprise. I expected a lot lower for what is a 50/50 race - 4 horses and 2 places.
A winner on chase bow on 19th January and the only chase run Kerada has had so that has to be accounted for.
Up in trip today to 24 furlongs, and has raced to a maximum of 22 furlongs. Soft ground today aswell. Chase winner on soft last time out. Slight niggle that Barry Geraghty is not taking the ride ( top jock for Henderson)
130 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Ya Hafed, 9/4 Baileys Agincourt, 16/1 Northumberland, 20/1 Ay Tay Tate, 25/1 Tobayornottobay, 33/1 Jack´s Rocket.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Ya Hafed won't be found many better opportunities to get off the mark and has to go well, but taking very short prices about horses unproven on the surface is never the best policy. BAILEYS AGINCOURT didn't show much on his debut but his stable has an excellent record here and is 10-15 with its 3yos so far this month, so it will be surprising if there isn't a fair bit more to come.[Paul Smith]
Experience is very important here. Intriguing market with Jacks Rocket now quoted at 7/1 and Northumberland a lesser move into 7/1. Both market leaders have no experience of the surface.
315 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Joe Le Taxi, 5/1 Go Maggie Go, 8/1 Bobbyow, 12/1 Ridgeway Hawk, 20/1 These Dreams, 25/1 Ever Roses, 66/1 Likeable Lad.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Mark Johnston's 3yos are flying at the moment and JOE LE TAXI, who left his maiden form behind him on his handicap debut, can overcome his penalty in this field. He is due to race off 65 in the future and although the surface is an unknown, he is expected to prove too strong for these rivals. Go Maggie Go could prove best of the rest.[Paul Smith]
Big price gapper here despite no experience of the polytrack - does have all weather experience and a Johnston horse ( why no Fanning on this one - he is at Southwell today?) Class 6 0-60 handicapper who should be starting a winning run, but a penalty and new surface are the niggles. Southwell is such a specialist surface that it is conceivable a strong market leader may not take to the surface, especially in this grade.
420 THURLES
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 On The Fringe, 6/1 Top Twig, 8/1 Annacarton, 8/1 O Crotaigh, 10/1 Island Peak, 10/1 Viking Splash, 12/1 Bobbawn, 12/1 Boxer Georg, 12/1 Lord Multifix, 14/1 Whyso Mayo, 20/1 Dr Doocey, 20/1 Leaders Mate, 25/1 Kilmurry Kid, 25/1 Nanos Witness, 33/1 Classic Gallery, 33/1 Ithinkiwill.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Despite the fact that his fitness has to be taken on trust ON THE FRINGE is hard to oppose. He has the makings of a top-class performer in this category and should have too much firepower for rivals such as Top Twig, who has belatedly put his racecourse hoodoo behind him, and Annacarton. [Alan Sweetman]
Bolger/Macnamara are devastating in these kinds of races. Top Twig is next best as one of only 2 under 10/1 Interestingly On the fringe is a non runner which surely opens things up for Top Twig.
250 WARWICK
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 The Minack, 9/4 Balzaccio, 8/1 Lord Generous.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: THE MINACK has endless potential as a novice chaser and the signs were most encouraging at Wincanton, where his jumping impressed for a debutant. He should prove too good for Balzaccio, even with the weight concession.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]
3 horses and 2 places here, great probability race - clear round of jumping required - the Minack is 1.12 to place and has a reasonable chance of placing .
Balzaccio is clear 2nd favourite here and should be considered for value seekers as a place only alternative. 1.28 to place
SHORTLIST
745pm - Ajax v Breda - 1.28 home - 1.15 over 1.5 goals as this is a cup game and I would prefer a neutral bet, despite Ajax having clear head to head advantage at home.300 FFOS LAS - Kerada to place is a reasonable 1.15 ( as long as the market remains liquid) and could be worth the shout despite obvious lack of chase experience ( only 2nd run today)
420 THURLES - Top Twig could be a good placer here now with a significant non runner.Illiquid market but shoul be 1.37 to place.
250 WARWICK - 3 horses and 2 places and 1.12 for the Minack.Balzaccio is very tempting for King/Thornton as clear 2nd favourite at around 1.28 to place. Presumption of course that the market is accurate and these horses complete - novice chasers again.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
745pm - Ajax v Breda - 1.28 home - -it's 50/50 for Ajax at home for over 2.5 goals but 89% of Breda's league matches have been over 2.5 goals, which makes me think over 1.5 goals has a chance of success today. Cup match
This looks like a one legged match so all to play for today. Interestingly these 2 meet at the weekend in the League ( away at Breda) so this may be a psychologically important match as the winner today will take momentum into the weekend.
we have novice chases dominating today and you take your chance with novice chasers, although the 2 mentioned obvious ones have had that important chase win .
250 WARWICK - the Minack has the greater probability chance of placing, but those words " with a clear round" should be firmly mentioned. We always assume a clear round and it is not always the case .Balzaccio is a value alternative but again in a 3 horse race we need to rely on the horse completing and running as a strong 2nd favourite should.
300 FFOS LAS - soft ground ( Kerada has run on soft) and up in trip today, but at 1/3 you would expect a strong run and in a 4 horse race for 2 places the hope is -guess what - for another clear round.
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