18 December

Lost out by a short head. Frustrating that Novikov placed as well yesterday

Dist.	Horse	Wt	Jockey	Trainer	Age	SP
	Lily Lily	9-0 b	J Fanning	K McAuliffe	2	8/1
hd	Ambrogina	9-0	T Eaves (3)	M Botti	2	4/1
opened 11/2
2¼	Privy Speech (IRE)	9-0	R Winston	Rae Guest	2	8/1
opened 17/2 touched 9/1
s.h	Puteri (IRE)	9-0	A Culhane	M A Jarvis	2	8/11 f
£500-£550 (x5) £500-£600 (x4) £800-£1000 £400-£500 (x13)
Still no payout for short heads. Incredibly frustrating.Such a distance the difference between profit and loss. Goes down as a loser and yet again for me another wrong final decision -different decision = different result which is why I want to show you the analysis - Camburr won 4-0 for instance - Novikov won - Ernst Blofeld won- I just have to improve on my final decision because we are facing catch up! FOOTBALL Bayern Munich v H Berlin - 1.22 - won last 3 -scoring 10 goals after 3 draws - unbeaten in 9 games and 4 draws amongst those. Playing bottom side at home who have lost all bar one away from home and only won one game ALL SEASON. 3pm Aston Villa v Stoke - 1.47 - a reasonable price for a team on form - unbeaten in their last 6 - Stoke seem to be draw experts away from home which ties in with the near 1/2 on Betfair 3pm - Rangers v Motherwell - 1.29 - unbeaten at home -only 2 draws - have scores 3 times in each of their last 3 games - 0-0 Away to Motherwell away is a slight concern and that was part of a 4 time draw sequence so has to be taken in that context - recent results ( 12 goals in 5 games) augur well Motherwell are draw specialists away from home ( drawn 5, and have drawn 0-0 away to Celtic and home to Rangers) Likely to be a tight enough game but a Rangers breakthrough should indicate a win, IF they make the breakthrough 5pm - Panathanaikos v Giannina - 1.25 - 2nd v 14th here - won all but one at home ( and that was a 1-1 draw) - Giannina have lost all but 2 of their away games - the 2 games were against bottom 5 sides - away side have lost 2-0 and 3-1 away from home to 3rd and 4th sides ( Pana are 2nd in the league) - 3 2-1's and one 1-0 mean that games are generally tight 530pm - Arsenal v Hull - 1.23 - emphatic home winners apart from Chelsea defeat. Hull away drew 1-1 with Man City and Wolves. Expectation is NOT for a repeat of Hull's exploits at the Emirates 645 - Feyenoord v Willem 11 - 1.31 home side - emphatic winners against those 10th and lower in Dutch league - have beaten Willem 11 away 3-2 - prompt towards goals perhaps given the tightness of the away tie 1.21 over 1.5 goals 9pm - Real Madrid v Zaragoza - 1.23 - 2nd v 18th of 20 - exemplary home record for Real - Zaragoza no wins away from home - lost 4 out of 5 against top 5 sides ( Real tonight) - never conceding less than 3 - looks good for Real at home this evening . Niggle regarding Ronaldo who may still be banned after his sending off - the guy is worth a goal or 2 he is that good. RUGBY UNION - Treviso v Northampton - 1.19 - realistic odds for the away side HORSERACING On such small margins yesterday - a short head between 3rd place and a winning bet. 1240 HAYDOCK BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 My Moment, 5/2 Quwetwo, 3/1 Bedlam Boy, 12/1 Al Co, 20/1 Tartan Snow, DIOMED VERDICT: Bedlam Boy and Quwetwo are respected but MY MOMENT has already made a good transition to chasing and can win again. First race of interest today and this should involve the 3 market leaders fighting for 2 places My Moment 1.61 to place, Quwetwo 1.71 to place 1250 LINGFIELD BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Stargaze, 5/2 Robust Wish, 15/2 Kai Mook, 12/1 American Agent, 14/1 Exceedthewildman, Minortransgression, 100/1 One Cool Slash. DIOMED VERDICT: Unless he has gone backwards since moving yards, STARGAZE ought to be hard to beat for all he is trying a new trip. The 2nd favourite is a non runner which should make life easier for Stargaze today. Now 1/2 and a "hard to beat " selection - only 2 places though - 2 debutants a slight concern as we do not know how good or otherwise 1.2 to place 225 NAVAN BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Medical Card, 3/1 West Cork Flyer, 5/1 Our Aodh, 6/1 Not Before Eight, 8/1 West Of The Border, 10/1 Rather Curious, 12/1 Seeability, 14/1 Forty Foot Tom, 20/1 Swift Accordian, Venture Wild, 25/1 Dead End. Medical card may be of interest here in this bumper for Nina Carberry and Noel Meade - 1.28 to place 230 LINGFIELD BETTING FORECAST: Evs Tranquil Tiger, 3/1 Saphira´s Fire, 7/1 Suits Me, 9/1 Plum Pudding, 10/1 Sky Crusader, 14/1 Settigano, 33/1 Rock Ascot, 50/1 Baylini. DIOMED VERDICT: Not a strong race as is the par for most Listed contests on AW and a good opportunity for TRANQUIL TIGER to follow up his recent C&D victory and post another win in this grade to his CV. The straight 8 runners herer for 3 places and 2 clear outsiders choulod reduce the competitive field 1.1.17 to place 6 runners now and still 3 places SHORTLIST All of the football matches today look strong. Bayern face the bottom side at home and have returned to some semblance of form. Arsenal have scored freely at home - do not expect a repeat of Hull's shock win Feyernoord and Willem 11's game should have goals. 1.21 over 1.5 goals means both teams are working for you. 1250 LINGFIELD - Stargaze is a " hard to beat " selection - 2nd favourite is a non runner which should make it far easier for Stargaze to place. 230 LINGFIELD - 6 runners and 3 places and Tranquil Tiger has a great chance here of placing in the first 3. This is a class 1 listed race so all horses are good.

11/12

The only Walsh /Nicholls horse not to win because he fell at the very last fence with the race at his mercy - that's why I've been avoiding the jumps racing. 5 or 6 of the losers last year were losers because they were fallers - it is a costly thing to weigh up whenever chosing a jumps horse to place.
Ajax v NEC - 1.19 - have been beating teams at NEC's part of the table comfortably

Kaiserslautern v Koblenz - 1.37 - Top v 16th out of 18 in German 2nd tier. - won their last 5, but 3 of those were 1-0's so just scraping the win on occasion.
Have only lost one at home to 4th in league. Concern is away from home Kaiserslautern against the bottom 4 have won 1-0 3 times and drawn 1-1. Yes this is their away form ( and they're playing home tonight), but this ties in with the 3 recent 1-0's in their last 5 wins which makes 1.37 a tad short.
Oppenents spanked 5-1 at home against 2nd in the league augurs well for top side Kaiserslautern - Koblenz, however, away from home have lost 1-0 and drawn 1-1 against 4th and 5th away from home.
Tricky to weigh up - a lot of 1-0's occuring between the sides and a prevalence of 2-1 away losses for away side make this a potential tight game unless Koblenz's recent 5-1 mauling at home is a sign that they may struggle against top sides - IN RUNNING
RED BULL v Austria Kartnen - 1.15 - 2nd in league against 10th (out of 10) - with the jumps playing havoc yesterday I do like to prefer the football at this time of month
Unbeaten at home and last time they played Austria Kartnen at home they won 7-1 - 2 recent 0-0's in last 2 matches for Red Bull came against 1st and 3rd and this is a sequence that could be broken tonight - NOT IN RUNNING
Excelsior v Emmen - 1.37 - solid at home only losing once 1-0. 2 goals or more by home team have been scored in all bar 2 gamesat home.Emmen 2nd bottom and previous head to head was 4-2 loss at Emmen which may lead towards a goals bet here - only 2.5 goal market on Betfair - NOT IN RUNNING
HEINEKEN CUP
Munster v Perpignan 1.25 - at home and should make that home advantage count but I am not an expert in rugby but live down the road from Limerick and have followed Munster by default

115 CHELT
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Garde Champetre, 6/1 Maljimar, 15/2 Royal County Star, 8/1 Heads Onthe Ground, 17/2 Sizing Australia, 10/1 Pak Jack, 12/1 Silver Birch, 14/1 King Harald, 16/1 A New Story, Double Dizzy, Freneys Well, Mr Big, 25/1 Cornish Sett, 33/1 Rimsky, 50/1 Osolomio, Soleil Fix.

DIOMED VERDICT: GARDE CHAMPETRE is extremely hard to beat here, as four course wins - including in this last year - show. He will need to step up on last month's non-handicap winning form here but, on the other hand, a reproduction of the form he showed when winningoff only 6lb lower at the festival in March may very well be good enough. At likely bigger odds, King Harald is an each-way alternative.

Again we face the spectre of a possible fall, but Garde Champetre, Heads on the ground and Enda Bolger should dominate.
1.44 anad 1.91 the 2 mentioned to place ( 4 places)
Jockeys have been swapped for some strange reason - would prefer Nina on Garde

325 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Shadows Lengthen, 9/2 Astrolibra, 10/1 Nyetimber, Stormy Summer, 16/1 Dado Mush, 50/1 Daltaban.

DIOMED VERDICT: SHADOWS LENGTHEN is thriving at present and can complete his five-timer at the main expense of Astrolibra.

Price gapper in a class 6 0-65 handicap but I'm painfully aware that horses on a 5 timer will eventually lose, and usually bomb out. BUT why is he priced at 2/5 with next best 7/1? - only 2 places 1.12 to place

330 GOWRAN
BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 Bold Banks, 9/2 Knight Realm, 6/1 Emily Pankhurst, 14/1 Reality Dose, 16/1 Michelle´s Express, 20/1 According To Them, 25/1 Waltzing Tornado, 33/1 Benefit Scheme, 50/1 Bobby´s Bird, Dandys Hill.

Based solely on the connections as not run yet.

335 CHELTENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Ghizao, 9/4 General Miller, 5/2 Lidar, 8/1 Cootehill, 25/1 Imperial Shabra, Miller´s Dawn, 50/1 Hideaway, 66/1 Nishnash, 200/1 Autumm Spirit.

DIOMED VERDICT: A race not to miss with three potentially top-drawer recruits to hurdling. GHIZAO is taken to confirm bumper superiority over Lidar and outgun General Miller.

4 against the field here anad faith in odds on fav Ghizao for Walsh/Nucholls ( please don't fecking fall at the last AGAIN!!) 1.13 to place

750 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Mister Angry, 7/4 Tukitinyasok, 8/1 Consequential, 20/1 Fine Lace, 66/1 Early Dart,

DIOMED VERDICT: MISTER ANGRY has a bit to find on adjusted official ratings but he has the most convincing profile and is taken to add to his earlier win here.

Best probability race of the day - 4 horses and one at 66/1 - 2 will place 1.18 the front 2

SHORTLIST
Red Bull Saltzburg v Austria KArtnen - 1.15 - 7-1 head to heads here and looks there for the taking. 2 0-0's in last 2 games were against 1st and 3rd in the league. A ready alternative to the spectre of a jumps selection falling ( as seen yesterday, it will happen but you always hope not to yours and especially not at the final fence!)
NOT IN RUNNING

115 Cheltenham - Garde CHampetre and Heads on the ground should dominate but why the potential jockey changes all of a sudden? The could break the winning partnership of Nina and GArde - 1.41 is a nice price as is the comfort of 4 places

325 STHL - Shaadows lengthen priced to win again but I a ever mindful of winning sequences ending and sometimes with a thump

335 CHelt - in what looks a race involving 4 only, will Ruby consent to stay onboard Ghizao ?

Ajax 1.19 to beat NEC - IS IN RUNNING

ONE A DAY
Horse racing wise, I will personally be getting involved with Garde Champetre to place but am aware that the spectre of falling can scupper another day, which is why the official one a day would be AJAX this evening for me at 1.19 - another game in running and Ajax have ususally scored 3 or 4 against teams in the lowere quarter of the table

10/12

No probs with Lyon yesterday, 20th minute first goal reduced the price to 1.08 to lay, and if you held out for halftime, the 2nd goal came.
Enhanced bet? Barca went 1-0 down and equalised again ( went on to win with a Messi masterclass) - Chelsea went a goal down too and, yes, equalised and went on to a 2-1 lead - trading again would have saved any Chelsea backers with a very late equaliser.

100 HUNTINGDON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Miss Sarenne, 7/4 Calusa Crystal, 4/1 Izita Star, 14/1 Maggie Mathias.

DIOMED VERDICT: Calusa Crystal has no Riverside Theatre or Crack Away Jack to worry about this time but in MISS SARENNE she may again find the one too good.

A 3 horse race this one and if we take the front 2 as dominating, we can take a chance with laying Izita star at around 6.6 , the sae as a 1.17 bet, but 3 horses means tactical affair

110 LUDLOW
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Acordeon, 9/2 Sambulando, 8/1 Beherayn, Petrosian, 9/1 Hide The Evidence, 10/1 West With The Wind, 11/1 Viable, 16/1 Alesandro Mantegna, 100/1 Vogarth.

DIOMED VERDICT: ACORDEON can add to his trainer's rich vein of form.

Price gapper here now odds on - another smart hurdler debuting as a chaser - no market moves amongst the others - Geraghty and Henderson a good combo 1.26 to place

120 TAUNTON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Valentine Vic, 3/1 Triggerman, 4/1 Jau, 11/2 Russian Song, 8/1 Little George, 20/1 Upham Atom, 33/1 Bell Hill Lad, 50/1 Insured, 100/1 Sweet Request.

DIOMED VERDICT: TRIGGERMAN showed plenty of determination to strike recently and can follow up.

Interesting race with 3 of the 9 at 40/1 or bigger ( can hopefully be dismissed) and one at 16/1, reducing the competitive field to 5, 3 to place. Nicholls/Walsh head the market - soft ground a concern 1.3 to place for Walsh/Nicholls Valentine Vic

135 FAIRYHOUSE
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Cadspeed, 7/2 Kilflora, 11/2 Mary´s Little Vic, 8/1 Mr Clyde, 12/1 Cheer Up, 14/1 Man Of Principles, 16/1 Aventinos, Leos Joy, 20/1 Killogan Lass, Mick The Tooth, 33/1 Lady Laragh.

PRice gapper for Mullins , previous 2nd in heavy in a big field under Ruby reads well for handling heavy today at Fairyhouse 1.13 to place

150 TAUNTON
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Recif De Thaix, 3/1 Chariot Charger, 7/2 Cracboumwiz, 5/1 Pocket Aces, 10/1 Warne´s Way, 33/1 Coup De Tabac, 50/1 Procas De Thaix, 100/1 Sally Army.

DIOMED VERDICT: RECIF DE THAIX was quite impressive on softer ground at Hereford last week and can go in again.

8 runners here, 3 at 66/1 or bigger , Recif is odds on and Chariot charger 9/4 the 2 who dominate.Warne's way is 16/1 and can hopefully be discounted, reducing the field to the top 4, 3 of whom will place 1.18 for Recif de Thaix and 1.27 Chariot charger to place

220 TAUNTON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 The Betchworth Kid, 13/8 Tito Bustillo, 7/1 Present To You, 14/1 Art Deco, Cappagh, 20/1 Dean´s Grange, I´m In The Pink, Regain Du Charbonneau, 66/1 Kaycee, 100/1 Colonna Lecca, Flying Squad, Mrs Overall, 200/1 Galloise, The Brimmer.

DIOMED VERDICT: This is likely to concern the two penalised runners, with preference for THE BETCHWORTH KID.

2 of the best jumps jockeys on the 2 market leaders who should dominate this big field if making no mistakes 1.22 and 1.25 the front 2 to place

340 LUDLOW
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Ceilidh Royal, 5/1 Deejan, Present Your Case, 13/2 Black Annie, 7/1 Ease And Grace, 10/1 Definitley Lovely, Welcome Wonder, 20/1 Aega, Jo Joe´s Lot, Mist Chances, 66/1 My Viking Bay, Roof Top Tango, Sun Up.

DIOMED VERDICT: All eyes on Barbers Shop's half-sister CEILIDH ROYAL, who is taken to make a winning debut.

Very much a talking horse this fav and favourite based on the reputation Diomed tells you about - Henderson/Geraghty again - as ever the market is key in all bumpers 1.29 to place

600 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Fathsta, 9/2 Bahamian Lad, 6/1 Ray Of Joy, 13/2 Little Pete, 8/1 Bertoliver, 10/1 Dvinsky, 16/1 Methaaly, Pearly Wey, 20/1 Fishforcompliments, Mogok Ruby.

DIOMED VERDICT: FATHSTA was unlucky here last week and is worth another chance.

Price gapper here after solid recent 2nd but class 4 handicap is competitive 1.19 to place

FOOTBALL
Lille v Toulouse - 1.61 - confidence boosting battling win against Lyon (4-3 scoreline) should help Lille here.Lille have scored 4 goals twice in a row at home, prior to that they scored 2 - strong form too beating Lyon and Bordeaux in recent weeks. Only lost one at home ( 1st gae of the season)
Toulouse are a tight outfit away from home, 3 1-0 losses, one 2-1 loss , anad 3 draws attest to this.
RUGBY
Newcastle v Montauban - 1.09 - egg chasing is not my strong point - just going by the odds
SHORTLIST
110 LUDLOW - Acordeon is certainly very much fancied in the live market - not run since 15th May and a debut to chasing are the obvious concerns. 1.26 to place - great jockey/trainer combination but we always take a chance with debutants over the bigger obstacles in softer ground
150 TAUNTON - I like this race because the straight 8 means 3 places , 3 are 40/1 or bigger reducing the competitive field to 5, 3 of whom will place.
Concern is a top heavy market , Recif de Thaix has Ruby onboard and is odds on fav, so the hope is he does not fall and does not get beaten by 5 others in an 8 runner race - 1.18 to place
340 LUDLOW - another bumper where the market nearer the off will reveal all, but at present an eyecatching price gap evens - - - - 7/1 for Ceilidh Royal - a chance because he's a debutant and this is based on reputation and pedigree rather than form in the book 1.29 to place

ONE A DAY
Looks like we are left with jumps races and we have the added obstacles of, erm, obstacles.This is why I would default to football but nothing strong today. The 110 Ludlow would look good were it not for the absence and chase fences which are the bigger obstacles
This leaves Recif de Thaix and Celidh Royal to chose from, and I would plump for Recif de Thaix I think ,simply because the 340 Ludlow's race revolves around the live market as it is a bumper
So it's the 150 Taunton for me, where we have the straight 8 runners, and 3 clear outsiders. Of the remainder Recif is odds on fav and would only seem to have 2 to beat to place , and ,as ever, he has a clear round of jumping ( remember Anak 2 days ago, 1/6 shot under the Champion Jockey and falls!!)

9/12

Key to success yesterday was heeding these words
"remember this is in running so you can manage your positions, especially if Leeds take the lead."
And leeds took the lead after 20 minutes and traded as low as 1.08 to lay because the market, like me, expected a Leeds win.
I always trade out as I put £200 stakes on these bets and that's a lot to lose! Kettering equalised - Leeds hit the bar twice, must have broken the world record for shots on target and had a goalline clearance with seconds to go, but this was a successful trade.With kick off at 8pm it is easier to manage positions than if the game was in the early afternoon.

I did the same with Arsenal v Stoke and learned from an earlier one a day choice where the team took the lead and ended drawing BUT that game was NOT in running.
This trading habit was also effective with enhanced betting Chelsea a shock goal down and available to back at 1.65. They equalised of course!!
AC Milan? 1-0 down and backable at a high of 5.1 but I was watching this game and they just did not convince me ,so I let it go despite the inevitable equaliser (again!!)
THe 1200 Lingfield saw a superb probability bet with the 3 market leaders taking up the first 3 places and with hindsight this should have been the one a day selection as it was such a good bet.

Football choices first
Inter v Rubin Kazan - Inter don't lose at home under Mourinho - right? So lay their opponents until this unbelievable record ends. Rubin are 8.4 to lay which is the equivalent of a 1.12 back bet if using fixed liabilities . eg if I normally back with £200, in this case I will place a lay bet with a FIXED LIABILITY of £200 - In running - - draw 0-0 or 1-1 suits Inter - both are tied 2nd place. The Rubin coach mentions tiredness after the end of the Russian season. The lay of Rubin looks the way to go here, given Mourinho's confidence and exceptional home record

Lyon v Debrecen - 1.23 and correct score 2 market is up (signalling Betfair's thoughts that there will be goals) - whipping boys are out again - a good sign is when you see the +2.5 goal Debrecen handicap market on BEtfair - in running - Lyon ,with a win, will take first place against a side with nothing to play for - Lyon beat them 4-0 at their ground so more of that tonight please!!
Millwall v Staines town - 1.26 - BOOYAKASHA! Ali G's boys visit the Den in another Cup game
In running
Sevilla v Rangers - 1.41 - Rangers out now - +1.5 goal handicap market is up, as is over/under 6.5 goal market -signalling goals and where Sevilla are concerned, goals usually flow at home - in running - Sevilla need just one point to remain top of the group. I can't see Sevilla losing and laying Rangers is the same as a 1.09 shot. Sevilla have been backed down to sub 1.39 and this may be a game where we can chance a back of Sevilla to lay off after they score first ( like Leeds)

Heavy ground at Hexham today makes choices there difficult
1240 LEICESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Ranjobaie, 4/1 King Ozzy, 13/2 Dona, 12/1 Akiem, 14/1 Wembley Way, 16/1 Makhzoon, Sail And Return, 20/1 Babilu, 40/1 Ba Dreamflight, 66/1 Danzig Fox, Racing Stripes, Tribunel, 100/1 Fan Club.

DIOMED VERDICT: RANJOBAIE stands out, having won all three of his starts in French bumpers and made a highly promising start to his hurdling career at Warwick last month. Dona is preferred to King Ozzy as the next best.

A conundrum - do we take the price as confidence in the fav? - now 1/2 in places, because it's heavy ground at Leicester too and this fav has only ran on good ground thus far

100 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Zubova, 100/30 Kirsty´s Boy, 4/1 Inside Track, 6/1 Anjomarba, 10/1 Cuthbert, 12/1 Indigo Ink, 33/1 New York Lights.

DIOMED VERDICT: ZUBOVA is bred to stay this sort of trip and the switch to claiming company can see her break her duck. I like Hannon/Hughes in Claimers but only 2 places mean we must expect the win if backing this to place 1.36 to place 120 HEXHAM BETTING FORECAST: 1/3 Cunning Clarets, 7/1 Birch Hill Bedouin, 10/1 What A Steel, 16/1 Transact, 20/1 Mole Control, 25/1 Macdougal, 33/1 Super Ally, 50/1 Also Jo, Eco Story, 66/1 Uncle Michael. DIOMED VERDICT: It is hard to oppose CUNNING CLARETS. What A Steel may be the best each-way alternative. Maintains the 1/3 despite heavy ground conditions . Watch out for Macdougal - hint of a market mover Fav has run creditably in heavy and soft, but you saw with an apparent good thing in Anak at 1/6 - they still fall, more so with worse ground 1.1 to place and 1.45 to win 200 LINGFIELD BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Tiddliwinks, 100/30 Billberry, 5/1 Dig Deep, 6/1 King Of Defence, 8/1 Caprio, 10/1 Hustle, Totally Focussed, 25/1 Timeteam. DIOMED VERDICT: TIDDLIWINKS didn't quite see it out over 1m last time but this shorter trip should be right up his street. Very interesting as it's now a 6 runner race ( like the 1200 yesterday) and 3 places.Bilbery and Tiddlewinks both 7/4 here BUT there is only one real outsider meaning a tight race. I like Richard Hughes which leads me towards Tiddliwinks. Effectively a 50/50 race - 3 places and 6 horses fighting for them 1.32 Tiddliwinks , 1.29 Bilberry , 1.79 King of Defense to place. 240 LEIC BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Pause And Clause, 5/2 Theatrical Moment, 100/30 Prince Taime, 8/1 Tanks For That, 10/1 Rear Gunner, 16/1 Barnhill Brownie, 25/1 Bedizen, 33/1 Petito, 66/1 Peachey Moment. DIOMED VERDICT: Theatrical Moment sets quite a decent standard on chase form on his latest fourth in an Ascot handicap but has to prove he is as good at 2m4f now. He is up against a couple of useful hurdlers in PAUSE AND CLAUSE and Prince Taime in any case though, with preference for Pause And Clause. Prince Taime wasn't as fluent as he might have been on last month's chase debut at Ascot. Looks a race we can split into 2 - 4 horses over 20/1 and 4 horses under 20/1. Of course it is the latter to focus on from a placing perspective Beginners chase though! 1.23 to place the fav 250 HEXHAM BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Abbeybraney, Evs The Hollinwell, 16/1 Indy Mood, 50/1 Seeking Power, 200/1 Chief Lady Olwyn. DIOMED VERDICT: The Hollinwell is held in high regard by both trainer and jockey but he has a tough task conceding 6lb to ABBEYBRANEY. 5 runners, 2 are at 33/1 and 100/1 so barring falls, a 3 horse race with prices at 1/2 , 7/4 and 16/1 Any involvement here is on the basis that none of the front 2 fall , and only the front 2 dominate. They take up the book in this race 1.12 and 1.25 the ront 2 to place ( note the markets are illiquid so this 1.12 is some chancer trying to lay at as low a price as possible) 650 KEMP BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Ipswich Lad, 5/2 Red Courtier, 3/1 Cast Of Stars, 12/1 Kyoatee Kilt, 14/1 Creevy, 16/1 Sparkling Crown, 33/1 Sisters Warning, The Great Husk. DIOMED VERDICT: Quite a stamina test for 2yos and that should suit CAST OF STARS who has been shaping as though that is what is needed. Very intereresting - the straight 8 means 3 places and only 3 under 12/1 in the betting. Note - 2 year olds and middle distances don't always mix!! - very illiquid market at time of writing 850 KEMPTON BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Mr Plod, 6/1 Noah Jameel, 8/1 Very Distinguished, 10/1 Fantasy Ride, Kames Park, 14/1 Spring Fashion, 16/1 Corrib, 20/1 Jezza, Sovento, 25/1 Flying Gazebo, Michael Laskey, 33/1 Innactualfact, Time To Play. DIOMED VERDICT: MR PLOD (nap) has improved since joining his current yard and is taken to defy his penalty. Another price gapper in a class 6 0-55 handicap and we had 2 yesterday who both won ( Shadow lengthen and another in the last race which I missed in my initial analysis) "hard to beat" under a penalty - SJ Craine won on him last time so at least it's a familiar jockey - 1.29 to place SHORTLIST Inter v Rubin - lay Rubin at odds of 8.4 for a fixed liability which will be the same amount as you usually stake A draw 0-0 and 1-1 suits Inter Milan, so I want to cover the draw. Mourinho home record for Inter, Chelsea , Porto is imperious which is why I want to LAY Rubin rather than back Inter. Keep laying Inter's opponenets at hoe until Inter lose that home record Lyon v Debrecen - 1.21 - 4-0 head to head - a team needing to cement top spot v a team with NOWT to play for.1.56 Lyon half time is tradeable and may be worth a shout for them to make the breakthrough in the first 45 minutes at home , as is the 1.21 which should crumble after Lyon get the breakthrough Sevilla v Rangers 1.29 over 1.5 goals is very enticing, especially if Rangers score first! 120 HEXHAM - Cunning clarets - interesting that, despite the heavy ground, the 1/3 stands in the live market for " hard to oppose " fav . 1.1 to place is plenty short enough given ground 200 LINGFIELD - like the 1200 Southwell yesterday , a 6 runner race paying out on 3 places still . Dominated by Bilberry and Tiddliwinks , any involvement rests on a replication of the 1200 Southwell where the first 3 in the betting were the first 3 home. NEGATIVE - there is only one real outsider here with 2 other horses priced 8/1 and 10/1 ( hardly dismissive prices) A probability race this one where you hope Bilberry and Tiddliwinks dominate 850 KEMPTON Another price gapper in a 0-55 class 6 handicap in Mr Plod - 2 from 2 yesterday augurs well for this one. ONE A DAY Standout bets for me would be Lyon at 1.23 v Debrecen - why? scored 3 away at the weekend , beat Debrecen 4-0 already ,and NEED a win ( unlike Chelsea yesterday) 200 Lingfield just from a probability perspective Cunning clarets because ,despite the ground ,the 1/3 remains in the live market - 1.11 to place Mr Plod in the 850 Kempton - while this low class handicap price gapper system is working, why not exploit it. So what are the negatives? Complacency for Lyon, who to chose in the 200 Lingfield , ground for Cunning clarets, and some 9 hours to the off for Mr Plod ( where anything can happen) As you've seen, I do favour football because it means I don't have to chance backing horses over obstacles in heavy ground.So it will be Lyon for me AS MY ONE A DAY, and if they make the breakthrough early, then this can be traded and we can secure the one a day profits and move on. I did get involved with the 1200 Southwell probability race and may do so with the 200 Lingfield if one of the horses becomes a clear favourite (I'll report back toorrow if I have - and that will be my one a day wrapped up)

7/12

Absolutely spot on yesterday - made to sweat in a fog laden match and the prevalence of previous 1-0's returned as Cluj eventually made the breakthrough.
I was taken with the masochistic attitude of the Deal or No Deal woman who took a 50/50 chance over 1p or £250,000, and with that reckless attitude in mind I enhanced bet the total goal, 1 or more at 1.95
Yes I backed the total goals at 1.10 too

Football > Int. Curtea de Arges v CFR Cluj : Total Goals

Showing 1 - 2 of 2 Selections

Selection		Odds	Stake(£)	Bid type	Placed	Profit/loss(£)
1 goals or more		1.95	236.00	Back	07-Dec-09 18:42	224.20
1 goals or more		1.10	200.00	Back	07-Dec-09 11:58	20.01
*Average odds: On Off					Back subtotal:	244.21
					Lay subtotal:	0.00
					Market subtotal:	244.21
					Commission @ 4.4%:	10.75
					Net Market Total:	233.46

If a woman can lose £250,000, then I can take the risk with an extra £236!
God Bless Cluj!!
Flipping placed 2nd in the claimer beaten by a horse 20/1 in the betting forecast and SP 14/1 -typical 16/1 system bet.
the 150 Musselburgh is typical of the conundrum we face in jumps racing - Meridian City, odds on and fancied, fell - we simply cannot legislate for this.
Litex Lovech won 2-0, and the half time/fulltime bet came in. I think it will be a worthwhile exercise now in looking at the football markets at Bet365 for additional markets which can allow more opportunities that are not available at Betfair.

Before looking at horse racing, Leeds v Kettering looks stand out today in the Cup replay. I watched the first match and Leeds should have won comfortably, and I suspect they will do so tonight, so at 1.25 this could be a nice quick one a day selection. In running so tradeable as ever ( and if the scoreline remains 1-0 to Leeds, say, for a concerted period, then it would be good to get out. I cannot see Leeds failing this evening.

Chelsea are 1.37 v Apoel this evening in the only Champions League match that appeals - they don't need to win but a 20 strong unbeaten home record in the Champions League is something for Chelsea to work towards

A potential game of interest is the Marseilles game with Real Madrid. Marseilles need to win 3-0 to go through and with this frame of mind they simply cannot sit back. Real Madrid were back to their old tricks at the weekend allowing a poor Almeria to score 2 at the Bernabeau. BUT they scored 4. Logic dictates that goals should be an option surely?
Marseilles have home advantage too so the 12th man factor can help ensure the 1.31 over 1.5 goals gives us a run for our money

AC MILAN - here's what the UEFA site says
AC Milan coach Leonardo has called on his side "to keep moving forward" as they look to build on their fine recent run with the victory over FC Zürich that could secure them top spot in UEFA Champions League Group C. The in-form Rossoneri would miss out on a place in the knockout phase should they drop points and section leaders Real Madrid CF lose at Olympique de Marseille, but Leonardo believes his side are up to the challenge. "We are a mature team that has played important games before," he said. Zürich pulled off a shock win at San Siro on Matchday 2 and their coach Bernard Challandes expects another strong performance on Tuesday, even if their European campaign is certain of ending after this match.

It would seem that AC Milan need to win, and they have the small matter of revenge for home humiliation against FC Zurich. A 3-0 win against Sampdoria at the weekend is perfect for tonight.
As you know I love short odds footy teams WHO NEED TO WIN ( remember my last failure was a Shaktar team who did not need to win) - the motivation really does change the team's approach to the game. Recent solid goalscoring form against Sampdoria will add confidence in backing AC Milan
FC Zurich are way off the pace in their domestic league and have zero to play for bar home field pride

1200 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Lucky Mellor, 4/1 Orchid Wing, 9/2 Athwaab, Caramelita, 11/2 Italian Tom, 20/1 Baby Judge, 50/1 Redoubtable Grace, 100/1 Nidamar.

DIOMED VERDICT: The drop to 5f and switch in surface could yield some improvement from CARAMELITA who has been showing a lot of pace over 6f and who has Fibresand winners in her pedigree.

The fav is a non runner leaving what looks like a 4 horse race and 3 places.3 are 1.45 to place and Carmelita is 1.75 to place.
A good probability race at decent odds.. Athwaab is the market mover here

1240 FONTWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 1/3 Anak, 9/2 Stormy Morning, 10/1 Maskateer, 14/1 Comprimario, 33/1 Dalrymple.

DIOMED VERDICT: There's very little temptation to oppose ANAK, who won as he liked at Plumpton.

McCoy on the jolly who won on heavy last time ( heavy again today) - only 2 places so no mistakes allowed 1.16 win, 1.08 place and a good sign that the live market shows 1/6.
Concern is, as already mentioned, heavy ground but did win on it.

110 FONTWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Ginolad, 3/1 Fassaroe, 7/1 Petito, 33/1 Miss Merenda.

DIOMED VERDICT: Venetia Williams has found a very soft opening for her Australian recruit GINOLAD.

From Australia to heavy ground in Fontwell. A 3 horse race here but no places - I don't know if Betfair have ceased with placings in 4 runner races -I am sure they used to put a place market up, maybe I a confusing it with 5 runner fields reduced to 4 runners

120 SEDG
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Ballybriggan, 9/2 Milans Man, 5/1 Cool Mission, 12/1 Zero Six Zoo, 16/1 Basford Lass, 20/1 Achiltibuie, Border Flora, Cosmetic, 25/1 Barron Watlass, 40/1 Macs Island, 100/1 Betty´s Run, 200/1 Yes Mate.

DIOMED VERDICT: BALLYBRIGGAN, whose form received a timely boost on Saturday, has plenty going for him and is preferred to interesting newcomer Cool Mission and Milans Man.

They're coming thick and fast. Ballybriggan a price gapper here and only 4 under 16/1 - 1.16 to place exudes confidence in the place market

130 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Shadows Lengthen, 7/1 Boundless Prospect, 8/1 General Tufto, 10/1 Eightdaysaweek, 12/1 Venir Rouge, 16/1 Moscow Oznick, 33/1 Bicksta, Rock Art, St Savarin, 66/1 April The Second, Black Falcon.

DIOMED VERDICT: Hard to oppose SHADOWS LENGTHEN following his C&D romp in a stronger handicap than this one on Saturday.

Price gapper in a 0-65 class 6 handicap and they generally place consistently. Concern that Shadows has already won 3 times and winning sequences always end eventually ( more so in handicaps with additional weight on each occasion - unless the trainer is smart!) Will this stop him placing though?
7lb claimer onboard would normally be a negative but he won with SHadows in a 5 runner affair last time - concern over middle distances, expecially with a bigger field, is a misjudgement of pace from an inexperienced claimer which might mess things up 1.17 to place

SHORTLIST
1200 SOUTHWELL is a race for those who like to take a chance (after all it is a 5 furlong nursery - YIKES!!). 1.45 on offer for 3 of the first 4 to place can be a persuasive enough price to gamble, and as I write, the probabilities increase with Athwaab an apparent non runner
Betfair's market has not reformed so I will carry on and hopefully it will have by the time I finish - the market has reformed on Betfair and the place market still pays out for 3 places - 1.22 Italian Tom , 1.22 Orchid Wing , and 1.4 Carmelita. This now becomes a very interesting probability race -the hope is these 3 dominate in what is a very messy 5 furlong nursery - remember we are effectively looking at a 2 year old handicap here and each of the 3 main contenders is either tackling a new surface or taking a drop back to the minimum trip. It would seem that Carmelita is the less fancied of the 3 .
1240 FONTWELL - Anak has been battered into 1/6 -1.16 for the win adn 1.08 for the place -has won on heavy ground and champion jockey onboard
130 STHL - my price gapper in a class 0-65 handicap system has been very consistent and Shadows LEngthen looks another great candidate. COncern is he is on a fourtimer today and these winning sequences in handicaps tend to end with a THUD! 1.17 to place
Leeds look standout this evening against Kettering and the price of 1.25 is better than the horses. I saw the game at Kettering which Leeds dominated and there should be no excuses at home. I suspect Kettering feel they have won already with a nice earner from the replay.
The NEED for 3 goals to no reply for Marseilles against a Real side who let in 2 to lowly Almeria at home at the weekend should surely mean 1.3 over 1.5 goals is going to give us a great run for our money. Marseilles are at home and just HAVE TO ATTACK from the off. Ronaldo plays today (no effect from the sending off at the weekend) and this is a recipe surely for a goal or 2?

ONE A DAY
The betting gods have served us up plentiful opportunities today. At the prices though, I must opt for Leeds United in the match odds market at 1.25. Apart from the 1.3 over 1.5 goals for Marseilles ,the Leeds game is the best price of the day.
From a horse racing perspective, well where do I begin?
Fancy speculating? 1200 Southwell is now a race of 6 runners and 3 places. It is difficult to split the front 3 but I would default on the live market favourite to place in this superb probability race.
1.08 for Anak to not get beaten by 2 horses in a 5 horse race looks a gift for a previous winner on heavy with the CHamp on board
Shadows Lengthen is another strong candidate today for my price gapper in a 0-65 class 6 handicap system. He should be very competitive today and is priced as such. Concern over the 7lb claiming jockey in a bigger field

SO, to conclude, it's Leeds United who will be seeing my ONE A DAY stake today, but from a personal perspective, I will be involving myself in the races mentioned above because on a different day, any of these 3 would be good one a day candidates.
Hope Leeds put it to bed tonight - remember this is in running so you can manage your positions, especially if Leeds take the lead.

With football this evening, and shorties like Leeds, Chelsea and AC Milan, do keep an eye out for enhanced football trading. Last week saw 100% record for me in those enhanced bets games I found out.

7/12

Arsenal won 2-0 on SAturday and there was plenty for the enhanced bettor to get stuck into. Wolfsburg (1.41 and playing at home) went an early goal down and equalised , Sevilla went a goal down and equalised , and the piece de resistance - Real MAdrid 2-1 down at home!! This was a 1/6 shot available to back at 5.1 - they equalised of course and went on to win. An early Xmas Present if ever there was one!! Please tell me you sniffed this one out!!

150 MUSS
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Meridian City, 15/8 Sunarri, 7/1 Kellystown Lad, 25/1 Qollioure, 33/1 Jack Apple, 100/1 Art Bank.

DIOMED VERDICT: Meridian City has something to prove on the ground and SUNARRI, who might have found conditions too testing last time but has sound prospects on his previous Aintree second, is preferred.

First race of interest, albeit not an ideal one. Looks a 3 horse race if the outsiders can be discounted , vying for 2 places.Of the principals, Meridian City maintains odds on status
1.19 to place, and Sunarri 1.49 to place -illiquid markets though at present

200 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Hidden Glory, 4/1 Lucky Breeze, 11/2 Thundering Home, 6/1 Magic Place, 7/1 Monyati, 25/1 That´s Show Biz, 33/1 Fever Tree, Spice Fair, 40/1 Fochabers, 50/1 Scarlet Ridge, 66/1 Kingston Folly, 100/1 Big Hands Lynch.

DIOMED VERDICT: HIDDEN GLORY is easily the pick on form and can make it third time lucky Lucky Breeze and Monyati look the newcomers to note.

PRice gapper in this maiden, life made a little easier by the absence of the 4th fav.
Now 4/7 and this is a good sign when the betting forecast price is shorter in the live market.
Fochabers 18/1 in places and a newcomer so a likely market mover.
A race where there are 5 newcomers who could be anything.
4th in a class 4 and 2nd in a class 5 - this is a class 6 and the horse got 2nd in a big field maiden
-must always look at the negatives which include race type - these are 2 year olds and the fact the fav is tackling 8 furlongs for the first time

1.13 to place but again the market has not got going yet

220 MUSS
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Natural Action, 7/2 Mesbaah, 6/1 First Stream, 15/2 Simple Jim, 10/1 Almanyan, Locked Inthepocket, 12/1 Moonwalking, 16/1 Larnalee, 20/1 Planetarium, Portavadie, Soubriquet, 33/1 December Sun, Regent´s Secret.

DIOMED VERDICT: NATURAL ACTION, much improved and with conditions to suit, may be able to defy a significantly higher mark.

I missed the boat with Natural Action's superb win last time and the weight might catch him out this time, but his win was authoritative an he could yet be placed again rather than win. BIG move for Lockedinthepocket now 7/2 fav - someone fancies this one
1.59 and 1.91 for the 2 mentioned to place

310 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Inside Track, 9/4 Flipping, 4/1 Royal Box, 11/2 Underworld Dandy, 16/1 Ellmollell, 20/1 Empress Leizu, Hubble Space, 25/1 Clayton Flick, 40/1 Typical Female.

DIOMED VERDICT: Inside Track has strong claims but FLIPPING could be a handful if repeating the form of his fifth off a mark of 80 on his only previous try at this track.

9 runners in his claimer and Flipping is the fav now into 7/4. Only 4 under 16/1 here - claimers do come with wealth warnings but Flipping has the best form and rating 1.3 to place

320 MUSS
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Final Day, 7/2 Buraimi Oasis, 6/1 Rubipresent, 8/1 Chester Lad, 10/1 Hooked On Line, 14/1 Stormio n, 20/1 Five Jembs, Moraira Magic, 25/1 Glaced Over, 33/1 The Only Way, 50/1 Backtobackjack, Dusk To Dawn, Ouest Eclair.

DIOMED VERDICT: Irish raider FINAL DAY looked a useful propect when making a succssful debut at Perth in May and can defy his penalty.

You should know the drill by now with bumpers - the market is key, but as things stand, Final Day is now odds on here after impressing on sole bumper start but he faces 7 newcomers for whom there may be a move later on

1.2 to place

340 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Ghufa, 4/1 Dream In Blue, 9/2 Fantasy Ride, 9/1 Rising Force, 12/1 Tesserae, 14/1 Casablanca Minx, 16/1 Shandelight, York Cliff, 18/1 Markadam, 20/1 Davids City, 33/1 Desert Hawk, Misty Kit.

DIOMED VERDICT: GHUFA has a decent chance in his bid to make it 3-4 at this track. The main danger is Fantasy Ride.

Price gapper and the price gap better in live market - 11/10 - - - -5/1 but we must remember the race type -- a seller -2 3rd places in a class 6 seller and class 6 claimer when 4/1 and 9/2 should mean that ,if priced as clear solid price gapper fav this time, he should, at the very least, replicate that placed form?
Negatives - middle distance race and jockeys can lose these races with misjudgements of pace
1.26 to place

FOOTBALL
Int Curtea v Clu - 1.48 away side
Home team Curtea Arges have a home record of 1-0-7 (W-D-L) for their 8 home games this season
Away team CFR Cluj have an away record of 2-2-3 (W-D-L) for their 7 away games this season,
Nothing in the stats that would tell me to lump on Cluj, but what is interesting is 1.1 for one goal or more - only one goal scored and we win!! The markets, though, seem set up for a low scoring encounter with over 1.5 goals at 1.41

Litex Lovech 1.11 to win - not much money on Betfair for this match which was postponed from the weekend, but 1.11 at home should indicate goals and something like 3-0, 4-0 , 5-0 which would have been my correct score picks for the weekend for this match - bet 365 offer 1/10 about liteks and offer 1/3 about halftime/fulltime Liteks which is enticing.
More so could be Bet365's 1/2 about over 2.5 goals.
These are all markets unavailable at Betfair

I tink Bet365 is a site I will have to visit more often and use as they offer good markets in games where Betfair only offer match odds

Setabul v Sporting - bottom side v a side who should be contenders.
Sporting are on a run of 5 consecutive draws, and Man City showed with their win over Chelsea that sequences end.Setabul at home have been ultra tight since a 4-0 thrashing back in September. Sporting are priced at 1.63 which hints at a win but a tight match too

SHORTLIST
200 LINGFIELD - mentioned because of the shortening of betting forecast price - 1.13 about a 2 year old maiden fav though is not that appetising
310 WOLVES
Yes a claimer but FLipping is well fancied now 6/4 anad 1.3 looks a nice price. Only 4 under 16/1, the negative is the race type which can see outsiders get involved regularly
Int Curtea v Cluj - 1.1 total goals 1 or more.
Am I missing something here? A 1/2 shot away from home expected to win and a huge ( for the market) 1.1 for a single goal to be scored in this match by either side. Too good to miss surely?
In all of their matches since September there has been just one 0-0 when Cluj met and equally matched side at home
6 1-0 scorelines scattered amongst both teams recent matches should mean that we will be made to sweat for a goal but this surely falls into the category of "shock if it loses"
Litex Lovech - my focus would be with the market at bet365 here with halftime/full time at an appealing 1/3 ,which bumps the odds up for a 1.11 shot
The market on Betfair is illiquid ( but it does have 5 hours for some cash to come in)

ONE A DAY
Must be total goals, 1 or more at 1.1 for me in the Cluj match. This is in running too, and the odds are likely to go up very slowly so if you are in the position to follow, it's 0-0 at half time and you're getting the cold sweats, then you can manage your positions
From a horse racing perspective, it's the usual tough Monday fare but at the price I would be taken by Flipping in the 310 wolves, ever mindful of the race type of course

But as things stand, total goals one or more, at 1.1 is too good to miss and it will be a shock if a goal is not scored by one of the teams within the 90 minutes ( and this is the type of bet we want - shock -if-it-loses bet!!)

5/12

All mentioned horses placed bar the gamble Cricket Boy. Or Jaune was stone last, ideal for the lay, and Besiktas - I was pleased with the 0-0 cover as I did expect a tight game, and it ended 0-0 so I simply won my stake back - no losses

HEavy ground at Wetherby and Chepstow and Navan today makes betting difficult

1250 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Brigadoon, 6/4 Going French, 9/1 Adam De Beaulieu, 10/1 Maldon Prom, 14/1 Major Monty, 50/1 Dispol Fay, R Woody, 66/1 Safari Camp.

DIOMED VERDICT: A toss-up between BRIGADOON and the more battle-hardened Going French, with the selection arguably having the more scope for improvement.

Class 6 2 year old 5 furlong event here and no ground concerns. Will this involve the front 2?

Going french has been placed 6 times, but Brigadoon has Fallon on board 1.23 and 1.28 the front 2 to place

100 NAVAN
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Osana, 5/2 Dancing Tornado, 7/2 Fisher Bridge, 16/1 Port La Chaine.

2/11 the fav now and looks a 3 horse race with 2 places. HEavy ground but Osana was a winner in heavy in a 14 runner event last time No place market for some reason.

110 WETHERBY
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Rory Boy, 11/10 Gansey, 8/1 Calin Royal, 200/1 Allegedly Red.

DIOMED VERDICT: Gansey and Calin Royal will relish underfoot conditions, but RORY BOY's form looks very strong in this context and he must be hard to beat if he adapts to the ground.

One clear outsider makes this an interesting probability race for place only betting. Gansey won in heavy last time, but Rory is a potential " hard to beat" with the proviso he handles ground as he has generally been running in good. Again where is the place only market on BEtfair?

135 CHePSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 The Begrudger, 5/1 Strategic Approach, 6/1 Bally Sands, 8/1 Inside Dealer, 16/1 Quintero, 33/1 Norwest, Sandofthecolosseum, 40/1 Holmwood Legend, 50/1 Tallyho Tara, 100/1 Classic Diamond, Joe Twist.

DIOMED VERDICT: The sky is the limit for THE BEGRUDGER and it will be disappointing if he is beaten here.

"from the family of Denman" - nice!! Price gapper here and I suppose as an Irish pointer he will be used to heavy cos all it does over here is rain, rain, rain! 1.18 to place and confidence in the market

5 of the 11 runners are 50/1 or bigger

200 NAVAN
BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 Quinola Des Obeaux, 7/2 Bostons Angel, 8/1 Glenstal Abbey, 14/1 Quito De La Roque, 20/1 Bideford Legend, 25/1 Thelobstercatcher, 33/1 Gaelic Grounds.

Obligatory Mullins odds on shots usually deliver, only 2 places though 1.19 to place

620 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 James Barrymore, 11/4 High Constable, 5/1 Fusaichi Flyer, 6/1 Barreq, 13/2 Saharia, 16/1 Ming Master, 50/1 A P Ling, Set In Ice.

DIOMED VERDICT: JAMES BARRYMORE has the form and experience to win an ordinary maiden like this.

Same connections as Toss off yesterday who placed with ease for Richard Hughes and Hannon.
The straight 8, and 2 very clear outsiders reduce the competitive field to 6, 3 to place.
Good recent placed form 1.13 to place

750 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Full Toss, 5/2 Bee Stinger, 9/2 Chocolate Caramel, 13/2 Red Expresso, 10/1 Acropolis, Anfield Road, 33/1 Midnight Bay, 150/1 Bond Cruz.

DIOMED VERDICT: BEEst try at 1m4f last time and he can go one better.

The aforementioned Full Toss a non runner, and the close proimity of BEe stinger in the betting forecast augurs well as Full toss won yesterday. Will this be 2 or 3 places? es , 3 places but prices not formed properly given 8 hours to the off.

FOOTBALL - Portsmouth v Burnley - generally overs in Burnley's away games -could look at over 1.5 goals. 1.32
Arsenal v Stoke - 1.26 - tricky to call as Van Persie still out? 4 draws away from Stoke, and a 1-0 win away to Spurs means that Stoke can be good spoilers. 1.21 over 1.5 goals. Stoke have played 3 of the top 4 and lost 2-1 and 2-0 away to Chelsea and Man Utd. Lost 4-0 away to Liverpool.Will Stoke do what they did to Spurs and get an away goal then shut em out.
West Ham V United - over 2.5 goals in all home games this season and over 2.5 goals in their last 10 games. HAve scored twice against Arse and Liverpool. 1-0 Man Utd win last time.
Under Zola, Hammers are set up to attack , but will they be set to frustrate? Looks good for over 1.5 goals today. Or a lay of West Ham. United have lost 3 already away from home, and this will not sit well with Fergie

Real v Almeria - Almeria held Barca to a 1-0 win at the Nou camp, and Real have been winning 1-0's recently in edgy affairs, thanks largely to Higuan despite a misfiring Kaka who has been Kaka this season
Looks another for my patented back home team and cover the stakes on the 0-0

Deportivo v Barca - poor against Xerez but respect to Xerez for shutting them out. Barca have tended to be held in away games - 3 draws and 3 2-0's are the main scorelines away for Barca. The team were was shuffled a bit against Xerez. 3 1-0 home wins for Depor so they can score and keep scorers ( like Sevilla) to zero goals .

SHORTLIST
Heavy ground at most jumps venues means good opportunities go amiss.
1250 STHL - Going french has placed in 6 of 7 starts, unplaced only in class 2 ( expected) - market mover Maldon Prom may be fly in the ointment.
Hope is this is between the front 2. Can Going French place again?

135 CHePSTOW - the begrudger has not run under rules and a degree of caution that he may be overbet given his relations to Denman .First run since 15th March though,first run over obstacles in a race environment, 3 miles and heavy
620 wOLVEs - James barrymore 1.13 to place is reasonable enough for the Hughes/Hannon combo in a race which should involve just 6
750 wolves - Bee stinger v interesting given this is still 3 places.
Arsenal v Stoke - shut em out or will the free scoring home side show themselves. Intriguing game .Expect a home win given Stoke's record v top 4 sides this season
West Ham v United - over 1.5 goals 1.28 could give us a good run for our money, just as long as the last head to head 1-0 isn't replicated. Hammers last 10 have been over 2.5 goals, and all home games been over 2.5 goals
Real Madrid - I would back Real and then cover stake with a 0-0.
ONE A DAY
HORSES - 620 Wolves - james barrymore looks worthy of a place today for the winning combo yesterday in a race where only 6 should be battling for 3 places
BUT with another non runner in the 750 Wolves, Bee stinger, under Fallon, only has 3 to beat to place with nearest rival, yesterday's winner Full Toss not running - one clear outsider leaves 5 fighting for 3 places. Low grade claimer but should be competitive to place and right man on board
FOOTBALL
Given Stoke's losing record against top 4 sides, Arsenal should win eventually at 1.25 and I am sure Wenger will have noted how good they were versus Spuds who usually score plentiful. Trade out after the Arsenal breakthrough. Potential to cover the 0-0 incase the Stoke bus is playing!!
Hammers games are over 2.5 goals heaven and the hope is this continues against United with 1.28 eminently tradeable. The ideal is a Hammers first goal as I cannot see United not making an eventual breakthrough.
SO, for me, the rock solid bet today would seem to be the straight Arsenal win, tradeable after they score first.
Good luck