9/11

Mourinho does not lose at home - FACT , so when Roma went a goal ahead, I laid them as low as 2.74 a half time for a nice enhanced bet when Inter inevitably equalised
Celtic were a superb enhanced bet - 2-1 own and backable at 5.1

145 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Qulinton, 11/8 Lady Pilot, 15/2 Yeoman Spirit, 33/1 Musical Weld.

DIOMED VERDICT: QULINTON will take some catching if jumping fluently on his chasing debut but Lady Pilot, who has the benefit of previous public experience of fences, is a serious threat.ut

Should be a 3 horse race with 2 places but another chase debut . Front 2 both 11/10 1.21 and 1.23 to place the front 2
Musical weld is 11.5 to lay to place and may be an option?


And that's it. Although there seem to be some good candidates, they are either debuting over chase fences ,or, with Chapel Flowers, a chaser going over hurdles. Big fields, heavy ground in places make this a wholly unappetising racing day for me today.

FOOTBALL
Benfica v Naval - 1.21 to win
Rock solid at home and scoring a shed load at home - 20 in 4 matches
Suffered only defeat away to Braga
Naval were beaten at home 3-1 by Porto and this is a guide as to the likely scoreline this evening.
1.19 over 1.5 goals IF Benfica have them scoring boots on

Liverpool v Brum - 1.35 to win. It seems that when Betfair put up markets for one team to have 1.5 goals+ the games do, indeed, have goals in them
Liverpool either WIN or they lose- they haven't done draws this term.
Only the one defeat at home - one win only for Brum on their travels and have lost away to 4 of the top 5 ( yet to play Chelsea) and drew 0-0 with Man City.
Arsenal beat Brum 3-1 but Arsenal are in far better form than Liverpool.
1.25 over 1.5 goals should presume Liverpool score the 2 goals. There is certainly an expectation of goals from market makers with the correct score 2 market and over 6.5 goal market on Betfair.
ONE A DAY
No need for a shortlist really today. One horse race of interest and 2 footy matches and that's it. Benfica have scored 20 in 4 games at home and 1.19 for over 1.5 goals looks the play today.

8/11

Job done yesterday by the odd goal in 7. Enhanced bet with Man City 2-0 down ,winning 3-2 for a great trade ,then drawing 3-3
110 FFOS LAS
BETTING FORECAST: 8/15 Get Me Out Of Here, 5/1 Pure Faith, 13/2 Walamo, 12/1 Alesandro Mantegna, No More Whispers, 25/1 Monsieur Cadou.

DIOMED VERDICT: GET ME OUT OF HERE has every chance of defying a penalty earned when beating Pure Faith easily at Worcester.

Now 1/2 for Get me out with McCoy who loves Ffos Las 1.2 to place and only 2 places and a penalty to carry - not quite in Norwich City rock solid territory is it?

120 MR
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Mille Chief, 7/2 Warrior One, 9/2 Dark Oasis, 13/2 Lakeman, 8/1 Bocamix, 14/1 Comprimario, Heredias, 16/1 Sergeant Pink, 20/1 Whispering Spirit, 40/1 King´s Counsel, Nayessence, Richo, 66/1 Bahamian Ceilidh, Gold Maha, Reel Bluff.

DIOMED VERDICT: MILLE CHIEF is an intriguing recruit to hurdling. His connections had plenty of success with the very smart Walkon, who had been bought out of the same French yard, in juvenile hurdles last season.

Price gapper here and odds on but a complete unknown to hurdles. Yard/Jockey rep goes before any proven ability 1.27 to place - wins at a canter or underperforms - it's the chance you take - is the market an accurate reflection of this horse's chances or is the market influenced by King/Thornton combination


155 NAVAN
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Operation Houdini, 10/1 Rebel Chief, 12/1 Casey Supreme, The Flying Dustman, Theribtickler, West Ship Master, 14/1 Duroob, Halfback, Polar Call, Seefin Dancer, 16/1 Equation, Grey Area, Red Scally, Undergraduate, 20/1 Bold Fencer, Ifyoucouldseemenow, King Vic, Uncommited, 25/1 Cochise, El Tuco, Global Position, Iwilltellyouwhen, Kerzak, Killeaney, 33/1 Derrycrew, Roadmaker, 50/1 Bat Out Of Hell, Leonardo Corona, Thirsty Tommy.

Now that's some price gap but this is a handicap hurdle in Ireland - at least we'll have 4 places 1.48 to place but illiquid market

200 HEREFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 1/3 Bureaucrat, 5/1 Little Firecracker, 8/1 Ballabrook, 20/1 Ruling Reef, 40/1 William Weazle, 66/1 Jetlag, Simplyirresistible.

DIOMED VERDICT: BUREAUCRAT should outclass his rivals.

Conditional jockeys selling hurdle. YIKES. But they say the fav is a class above. He needs to be having unseated and fallen in 2 of his last 3. 2 places too -1/2 in the live market and little is 3/1-should involve 3 horses so it's pretty much a probability race 1.18 to place - not quite the 1/3 in the betting forecast - just over 1/2 on Betfair, but if we can assume this will be a race of 3 horses then a horse taking a huge drop in class should be competitive? BUT in a selling hurdle for a reason!!

240 LIMERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Morning Supreme, 9/2 Kilflora, 8/1 Fly Home Cassy, Split Ear, 14/1 Dream Home, 16/1 Keep Movin, Our Symphony, Thesulkyoflanagan, 20/1 Brave Heart, Cordless, Leader Bobby, Lee´s Cross, Midnight Penny, Therangersdaughter, 25/1 Lady Laragh, The Flying Scholar, 33/1 Alittlealexandrite, Some Captain,

Walsh/Mullins - soft ground a slight concern 1.2 to place

305 HEREFORD
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Quideo De Touzaine, 7/1 Jau, 8/1 Timeshift, 10/1 Filippo Lippi, 12/1 Court Red Handed, Noble Aran, 14/1 Ballyoliver, The Disengager, 16/1 Viking Blond, 20/1 Saulty Max, 50/1 Deepwood Fox, Kelly´s Quest,

DIOMED VERDICT: Impressive bumper winner QUIDEO DE TOUZAINE is fancied to make a successful switch to hurdles here.

Another price gapper for Nicholls but no Walsh as he is in Ireland. Newcomer to hurdles so any bet based on hope the horse is well schooled 1.32 to place

335 HEREFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 The Jigsaw Man, 3/1 Ravethebrave, 14/1 Calusa Shadow, Peppertree Lane, 20/1 Waldenstroem, Zaif, 33/1 Azulada Bay, 66/1 Brookfieldshector, 100/1 Riverbank Ruby.

DIOMED VERDICT: THE JIGSAW MAN is a useful type and can win again.

4 over 33/1 can hopefully be discounted leaving 5 fighting for 3 places - peppertree lane the market mover 1.11 to place - they fancy this one in the market

FOOTY
1245 - Falkirk v Celtic 1/3 away - what is interesting is the 11/1 about Falkirk at Ladbrokes - all but dismissed
Only beaten by Rangers this season, despite seemingly poor form.FAlkirk beaten 4-1 by Rangers admittedly away to Rangers but this again should serve as a guide as to what Celtic should be capable of. Falkirk have not won this season, and have drawn 2 at home 0-0 and lost 2 at home 3-1.
130 - Den Haag v PSV- 1.43 away - psv unbeaten away from home, and Den Haag have lost 1-0 to 2 top 5 sides so possibility they will keep it tight against PSV
145 - Zenit St Petersburg v Terek Grozni
1.24 at home - Zenit scoring at least 2 at home with regularity and Terek are losing away so first goal for Zenit could be te call
6pm - Valencia v Zaragoza 1.51
3 draws at home and a hope this sequence will end today ( Man City nearly broke their draw sequence while 3-2 up) Zaragoza have scored in all away games and lost all bar one draw. Against top sides they have been well beaten. Valencia priced to end their draw sequence at home tonight - 1.21 over 1.5 goals involves both sides - we have seen Zaragoza can score away from home regularly so the hope is this continues
745 - Inter v Roma - you all know the drill by now. Do not back against Inter at home until the 123 run unbeaten record of Mourinho's ends.Laying ROMA at 8 is the same as backing a 1.13 shot and is worthy of support until the very very strong home stat for Mourinho is broken - 3 draws, one win and one loss away - a draw is ideal and is covered by the lay of Roma

SHORTLIST
200 HEREFORD - you don't need to be Sherlock Holmes to note this one - we can call it a probability bet if the 4 horses 20/1 or bigger can be discounted - leaving 3 fighting for 2 places
NEGATIVES
-conditional jockeys
-selling hurdle
-Bureaucrat's recent form -U5F - shocking stuff -whenever you see letters in the form column you know you're in trouble
POSITIVES - as a 1/2 shot, the other horses must be "shoite" as they say in IReland, so where is the opposition. Little Firecracker is ultra consistent placer
335 HEREFORD - interesting betting forecast with only 2 under 14/1 the ones to concentrate on.Looks a 5 runner affair in the live market with peppertree now 7/1 and Zaif 16/1
INTER V ROMA - Lay Roma at 8 for fixed liability of £100 pays 1.13 equivalent back odds and it's worth opposing away teams at Inter until Jose's immense home record ends

ONE A DAY
A day full of 2 the place races, and horses of "potential" and little proven form. My one a day is a lay of Roma at 8 in the hope the Mourinho home record remains - we have stats on our side so fingers crossed.

7/11

Plenty of opportunities yesterday but I couldn't write the rest of the blog

Selection		Odds	Stake(£)	Bid type	Placed	Profit/loss(£)
Sitting Tennant		1.07	200.00	Back	06-Nov-09 14:47	14.00
*Average odds: On Off					Back subtotal:	14.00
					Lay subtotal:	0.00
					Market subtotal:	14.00
					Commission @ 4.57%:	0.64
					Net Market Total:	13.36

I spotted this one on the way back home and place backed a 1/4 shot without any look at the Racing Post, and he came 2nd so job done

1240 WINCANTON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Pepe Simo, 5/1 Diamond Brook, Qaspal, 7/1 Eastern Paramour, Wade Farm Billy, 9/1 Doctor Foxtrot, 20/1 Miller´s Dawn, 40/1 Mrs Overall, 50/1 Kauto The Roc, 66/1 Normandy Landings, 100/1 Campfire Tales, I´m Henrietta.

DIOMED VERDICT: PEPE SIMO can put his previous jumping experience to good use.

Early race start today but this is the first race of interest. Pepe is another Walsh/Nicholls combo horse and they will place more than they don't 1.17 to place

105 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 1/4 Crack Away Jack, 9/2 Calusa Crystal, 12/1 Mister Matt.

DIOMED VERDICT: CRACK AWAY JACK looks different class to his two rivals.

Stop the search here? 3 horses and 2 places and an opportunity to win back Jack and trade out at a lower price in running. A beginners chase 1.11 to place

250 WINCANTON
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Gullible Gordon, 5/2 Kangaroo Court, 5/1 Bakbenscher, 6/1 Red Admiral.

DIOMED VERDICT: Gullible Gordon has a much harder task than at Chepstow and the promising KANGAROO COURT might just come out on top.

Surely kangaroo's absence sets this up for Gordon? 2 places and 3 horses 1.17 to place

300DOWNROYAL
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Forpadydeplasterer, 7/4 Herecomesthetruth, 11/4 Siegemaster, 12/1 Good Fella, 66/1 Saddler´s Native.

Cheltenham bound and a 3 horse race for 2 places - illiquid market

400 WIN
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Valentine Vic, 3/1 Pride In Battle, 9/2 Robain, 7/1 John´s Gift, 8/1 Plettenburg, 16/1 Treyarnon Bay, 33/1 Not Right Now, 50/1 Colonna Lecca, Johnny Mullen, 66/1 Bernie The Banker, 100/1 Nobbys Girl.

DIOMED VERDICT: VALENTINE VIC has racecourse experience from his points in Ireland, both of them wins.

Guess who on Valentine Vic - a bumper so caution about a look in the market 1.25 to place

1245 - Paulton v norwich - 1.19 A cup game and surely an away win or will the magic of the Cup leave backers reeling. FA CUP first round should be easy pickings

3pm Man City v Burnley
1.39 Man City - like Leverkusen yesterday, City are priced to break a sequence of 4 draws - Leverkusen managed it. City have scored 2 or more in 3 of their 4 home games
Home form outstanding for Burnley, but only managed 2 goals away (both against Blackburn). Look at scores against Chelsea, Liverpool, and Spurs for an idea of likely scoreline today. 2 or more goals to nil so 2-0, 3-0, 4-0 could be likely scorelines.
I would expect this 4 draw sequence to end today

3pm - Rangers v St Mirren
1.31 - look at Celtic's 2-0 win at St Mirren as a possible guideline . Too many draws for Rangers means that I would look to trade if they score first incase it's yet another draw. In really poor form at present but it shows the weakness of the SPL that they are 1.31

3pm Tottenham v Sunderland
Goals anyone? 80% of Spurs home games have been over 2.5 goals and 60% of Sunderlands away games have been over 2.5 goals, so ,safety in mind, back over 1.5 goals

7pm - Barcelona v Mallorca
1.19 Barca. Laboured against Rubin away but should have won with the Ibra chance which hit the post. A solid and disciplined Rubin was also a factor
Excellent home form from Mallorca sees them 5th in the table. Only played one team away in the top 5 losing 2-0
Zaragoza not withstanding, ( 6 goals there), Barca have managed a 1-1 , 0-0 and 1-0 in previous games. Normally at 1.19, expectation is for goals.


SHORTLIST
Paulton v Norwich - 1.19 looks very enticing
105 SANDOWN - Crackawayjack at 1.11 to not get beaten by 2 horses ( or fall of course) in a 3 horse race looks great for me
250 WINCANTON - Gullible is 1.17 to place again in a 3 horse race and 2 places - Red Admiral cannot be discounted here so it's simply probability here and a hope Gullible finishes 1st and 2nd
3pm - Man City - chance them today at 1.39 to break a sequence of 4 draws? I would back City in the match odds market and them trade out if they score first. A chance to bump up the odds today compared to the sub 1.20 odds elsewhere
3pm Spurs - 1.24 over 1.5 goals should give an excellent run for our money

ONE A DAY
I will go for Norwich to get one over Paulton Rovers with their plumbers and plasterers and carpenters who will empty out like a horse in heavy ground over 3 miles 4 at Towcester. One of those "shocks if they lose" bets and fits into my idea of a one a day bet. Not rock solid cos it's the cup but logic dictates Naaaarrrrrrrich -it's in running too.
All bets in the shortlist look good today - some great probability bets. So, make your own decision and good luck

6/11

I knew there were goals, but ,please, Werder Bremen, score them early in the first half next time,pretty please, with sugar on top!!.Goals in the 81st and 84th minute saved face for the over 1.5 goal market. It is a game of 90 minutes I suppose and that should be remembered, but for 80 minutes the swear jar was filling to overflow.
I don't know how I let Sahara Kingdom slip the net yesterday. I guess the non runner and the fact this Godolphin horse was 1/3 in a 4 horse race brought this to my attention in the live market

Horse Racing > Ling 5th Nov : To Be Placed

Showing 1 - 1 of 1 Selections

Selection		Odds	Stake(£)	Bid type	Placed	Profit/loss(£)
Sahara Kingdom		1.14	200.00	Back	05-Nov-09 13:45	28.00
*Average odds: On Off					Back subtotal:	28.00
					Lay subtotal:	0.00
					Market subtotal:	28.00
					Commission @ 4.61%:	1.29
					Net Market Total:	26.71

4 horse race and 2 horses over 20/1 made the 1.14 extremely enticing for the horse not to get beaten by 2 horses in a 4 horse race , and I hope you found it too. With Godolphin banging in the winners, this was a good bet and obliged with an obvious win at 1/4 final odds.
This also shows that, with one a day betting, we need to be flexible. I write the blog, but surely it is folly to think that my one a day selection is written in stone and I must not budge from it. If there's a rock solid one bet a day opportunity in the live market, take it!!

Enhanced bets? Well Sporting Lisbon went a goal down yesterday and equalised within 6 minutes - it really is amazing how teams score once a goal down and this is the basis of enhanced betting. Shaktar did it again with a 2 goal haul - these guys are serious about the Europa Cup and worth siding with as seen with 14 goals in 4 games

FOOTBALL
to start with today

19:00

MVV Maastricht vs Omniworld

1/3

Dutch league 2 and a home team unbeaten at home but have been royally spanked away from home which is a concern.Omniworld have lost to 7 of top 8 sides but Maastricht are 12th so this ,for me, is not reflective of how they may perform this evening. NOT IN RUNNING

I would expect goals though but the only option is over/under 2.5 goals

19:30

Bayer Leverkusen vs Eintracht Frankfurt

4/11

Bundesliga league leaders unbeaten this year but 5 draws is of some small concern
3 draws on the trot and priced this evening to break that sequence.Frankfurt have beaten 2nd placed Werder Bremen away from home and again I would be confident of goals
1.25 over 1.5 goals
IN RUNNING

19:45

Bray Wanderers vs Bohemians

6/1

10/3

4/11

Not in running and I think Bohs have sown up the title ( not sure though) so motivation?

Afraid I was accosted by someone who wanted me to look at their PC while I was waiting for my M.O.T to be done, then offered me lunch so there's no way I can look thru the cards in time now! Good luck with your one a day bet today. If I find one I will show it tomorrow (if I can get away! )

5/11

Arsenal do equal goals-good 1.5 goal bet yesterday. Yet again though, your faith in Godolphin would have been rewarded with 2 winners from the races I highlighted.
Mutafajer was 2nd at Kempton so placed for my strongest horse bet yesterday.

Please excuse the lateness-again the broadband has gone inexplicably slow these past few days and I am powerless to speed it up at present
1205 LEOP
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Karasiyra, 3/1 Remember When, 7/1 Endless Expanse, 10/1 Ice Empress, King´s Vintage, Takaliyda, 12/1 Frenka, 14/1 Bea Remembered, Siul Alainn, 16/1 Fortuna´s Blade, 20/1 Hen Night, Magical Memoir, New Atalanta, Reach The Stars, 25/1 Red Red Ruby, Restless Kala, 33/1 Great White Rover, Mazellie,

Heavy ground and v now odds on for Sea the stars jockey and trainer. As argued yesterday, does maret strength signify the horse can handle heavy? Is a 2 year old though and Ballydoyle and Weld/Smullen in opposition 1.24 to place

140 LEOP
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Rayeni, 9/2 Rock And Roll Kid, 5/1 Libano, 6/1 Luisant, 7/1 Pollen, 8/1 Girouette, 10/1 Le Cadre Noir, 12/1 Aahaykid, Six Of Hearts, 14/1 Alexander Youth, Scarlet O´Hara, 20/1 Good Time Sue, 33/1 Trinity Scholar, 50/1 King´s Bastion.

Rayeni returns, and typical of Irish horses, is well prepared for soft and heavy going. A listed race so very competitive but Mick Kinane rarely disappoints on fancies 1.26 to place

330 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Master Lightfoot, 2/1 Quasi Congaree, 100/30 Ajjaadd, 12/1 Rightcar Dominic, 20/1 Spinning Bailiwick, 25/1 Tightrope, 33/1 Dancing Again, 66/1 Across The Sands, Riggs.

DIOMED VERDICT: MASTER LIGHTFOOT is taken to beat Quasi Congaree in an uncompetitive maiden.

5 furlong maidens rarely reach my shortlist, but only 3 are under 12/1 here, 3 of the 9 runners are 66/1 or bigger reducing the competitive field to 6, 3 of whom will place - Master Lightfoot has experience on all weather which is good and the past 7's in the form were in handicap company. Looks like connections want a win here? 1.2 to place

A difficult day today for the horses. Will heavy ground in Ireland mean that the races become more of a level playing field, or do we rely on the market as having factored ground conditions into the price?

FOOTBALL
2 on the trot so far at better odds usually than we'd get for horses, so a good look at Europa league
530 - Spain U19 v Wales U19
1.17 for the Spaniards here. Their under 17 colleagues face the might of, erm, Burkino faso and are 1.36-surely this is a mismatch regardless of age?
NOT IN RUNNING
6pm - Nigeria U17 v New Zealand U17
1.35- if the youth are as bad as the senior squad, this should be easy for the nippers

6pm - Sp Lisbon v Ventspils
1.27 and home advantage should ensure a win? IN PLAY
805pm - Toulouse v Shakhtar
Always factor in Shaktar because we know immediately that they take this competition extremely seriously - scored 4 at home against Toulouse.
805pm - W Bremen v Austria Vienna
1.31 - goals the main course as per usual in a Werder game?
Must win for Ze Germans here as this should guarantee they enter the knockout phase
1.17 over 1.5 goals after a 2-2 draw in Vienna

SHORTLIST
140 LEOP - Kinane/Oxx's Rayeni is familiar wit the ground - course and distance winner - 4/5 - - - -6/1 in the live market 14 runner listed event in heavy ground.
330 LING - Mister Lightfoot should be competitive here if the market is accurate. 5 furlong maidens not top of my list though - tardy starts can be punished.
530pm - Spanish under 19's look to have the edge over their Weslh colleagues here BUT NOT IN RUNNING , and as we have seen before, Spain could score the first goal and still draw and in a tradeable game, this counts as a winning bet for me
805pm- faith in Werder here at 1.17 for over 1.5 goals? If you wanted a more speculative bet, the 12 goals in 3 games Shaktar's goal market is a little more competitive. Motivation ,though, is there for Werder and over 1.5 goals have a good chance given Austria Vienna scored twice against Werder.
ONE A DAY
Heavy ground is a concern despite the market showing it should not affect Rayeni. So for the 3rd day, I will personally chance Werder v Austria Vienna over 1.5 goals at 1.17 in a tradeable game

4/11

Went to plan! Real scored and AC Milan scored for over 1.5 goals. Royal Charm won as expected and I suppose if the noises from the markets is strong, DESPITE HEAVY GROUND, then the market can be relied upon
110 NOTTS
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Burj Nahar, 5/1 Gay Mirage, Salvation, 13/2 Molon Labe, 7/1 Lutine Charlie, 14/1 Ashbrittle, Welcome Bounty, 16/1 Ticket To Paradise, 20/1 Head Hunted, 25/1 Rock The Stars, 33/1 Ildiko, 40/1 Bollin Julie, 50/1 A P Ling, 66/1 Priestley, Straversjoy,

DIOMED VERDICT: Molon Labe, who had backend Group entries and is progressing along the right lines, could make his experience tell, but BURJ NAHAR is taken to maintain Godolphin's startling run of late-season form with juveniles

Deja vu (again!!) Godolphin fav well supported but debutant in a biggish field maiden 10/11 - - - 8/1 in the live market 1.33 to place- again the market is strong on this one but ,for me, relying on a 2 year old debutant to perform in soft ground on his first run is asking a lot, regardless of ability. It's the ability to handle the ground that is key


215 NOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Alexandros, 4/1 Young Pretender, 8/1 General Eliott, Plum Pudding, Smokey Oakey, 40/1 European Dream, 100/1 Pawan.

DIOMED VERDICT: If ALEXANDROS is back to the form of his Lockinge second he ought to be too strong for stablemate Young Pretender.

Godolphin 1 -2 in the betting - concern Alexandros was lame when last seen out . Soft ground proven though but only 2 places here 1.24 and 1.81 to place. Clear preference in the market for Alexandros here but only 2 places ( regardless of these being Godolphin runners)

230 WARWICK
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Straw Bear, 5/4 Somersby, 8/1 Kanad, 12/1 Slew Charm, 40/1 Olympian Boy.

0/

DIOMED VERDICT: This looks very close to being a match between last season's leading novice hurdler Somersby and former high-class hurdler STRAW BEAR, with narrow preference for the latter.

2 miles means less chance of surprising incidents. One clear outsider makes this a 50/50 race with 2 class hurdlers taking on chase fences and 2 places with 4 potential runners of interest 1.37 and 1.23 in an illiquid market for the front 2 here Both not run for some time, both debutants over chase fences. Market prefers Somersby. Any involvement here from a place only perspective should presume this race will be Somersby v Straw bear

620 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Mutafajer, 7/2 Lago Indiano, 5/1 Forest Crown, 8/1 Key Light, 12/1 Welsh Artist, 14/1 Rose Aurora, She´s My Rock, 16/1 Young Simon, 66/1 Farmers Dream.

DIOMED VERDICT: Lago Indiano and Forest Crown should both be winning soon but MUTAFAJER could be hard to beat.

Only 3 under 20/1 in the live betting and another Godolphin fancy heading the market. At least we have 3 places here and no ground concerns. 1.16 to place

530 -Rubin Kazan v Barca - Barca still favs here despite the brass monkeys weather. A must win for a club expected to win , preference for goals bet again in order to have both teams playing for us given the weather conditions 1.28 over 1.5 goals. It is the weather that is the concern with Barca this evening. Can they handle sub zero?

745 - Arse v AZ - the goal kings of the Premier League return home and there must be, erm, goals in this one! 1.2 for over 1.5 goals is, again, very enticing given Arsenal's record. The fact there is a market for +2.5 goals to AZ suggests there's goals in them there hills! 1.19 for the straight back of Arsenal

745 - Fiorentina v Debrecen - look at Zurich outclassed last night for an idea of what may befall Debrecen this evening - exactly the same prices as the Arsenal game for the markets. I would suspect Debrecen will be easier to score against than AZ Alkmaar

SHORTLIST
Again, it is a question of yur faith in red hot Godolphin, more so with the soft ground.

230 WARWICK would be my first choice to consider with 2 top quality novice hurdlers tackling the chase fences after a lay off. Assumption is this will be fought out between these 2

620 KEMPTON - looks the best prospect for me today from the horse racing Mutafajer seems to only have a few rivals for the win market, making the likelihood of a place a lot easier. Note race is off in 6 hours time, so really it is better to consult the market nearer the off

Arsenal = goals ,all things being equal, and over 1.5 goals is very enticing indeed and includes both sides

Fiorentina straight back or over 1.5 goals - Debrecen should be out of their depth here

ONE A DAY
Ground concerns are most offputting, regardless of the type of form a red hot stable has been in.
The 620 Kempton would be my race of choice today for place only purposes, but I will put my one a day faith in there being goals at the Emirates this evening. Over 1.5 goals again the bet and the all important tradeable option too makes this more enticing.

3/11

Very late today - no electricity in my area and then no broadband -broadband ok now and doing this on laptop off a car battery!
Soft at Catterick and Heavy at Exeter makes a bad day even worse for punters!
You'll read lines like " major player if handling this ground" today which tells all
230 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Royal Charm, 4/1 Robo, 10/1 General Kutuzov, 11/1 Four Strong Winds, 12/1 Wine ´n Dine, 14/1 Shaking Hands, 25/1 Mysortofman, 28/1 Power Pack Jack, 50/1 Uig, 66/1 Canshebemine.

DIOMED VERDICT: Ready preference is for ROYAL CHARM, who sets a useful, clear standard on his good second in a better race than this at Sandown in February. He can make it a third win in this race in four years for Paul Nicholls.

Now 1/3 so the market thinks heavy ground will be no great burden here for another Nicholls horse

Football
Man Utd 1.45 to win - tend to get going in 2nd half and what impact will the absence of Shrek and Berba have? I'm not too taken with putting my faith in Owen up front
Milan v Real Madrid - 1.24 over 1.5 goals - Real on a revenge mission and goals going in despite Ronaldo's absence.MOTIVATION - the manager has been given 2 games to save his job - Getafe at the weekend and this one so I expect attacking football and ,of course ,poor defence to ensure over 1.5 goals. Tradeable as well
Marseilles v Zurich - 1.34 - like Debrecen , Zurich shoud be out of their depth, and again over 1.5 goals covers any shock Zurich goals
SWISS TENNIS - Djokovic 1.09 today should beat Beck
SHORTLIST
230 EXETER - Royal Charm 1.13 to place and 1.35 to win. The market expects no problems regarding heavy ground for this one - has run good to soft and soft but NOT heavy and coming off an absence -last ran Feb 09. Do we follow market confidence here blindly?
Football wise, Milan v Real Madrid over 1.5 goals at 1.25 is surprisingly big, but given motivation by Real to get some revenge, manager must win, and 3-2 last time, AND dodgy Real rearguard, we should get a great run for our money
Ditto Marseilles v Zurich - over 1.5 goals is 1.25 but may be reliant on Marseilles scoring 2 unless Zurich can shock again ( and to be fair they have found the onion bag)
ONE A DAY
I am loathe to take 1.13 about a horse coming back from an absence and running in heavy ground today so will steer towards to football and Madrid/Milan over 1.5 goals at 1.25. The motivation is there, the leaky defense and the ability for both sides to score is there too. An early goal will signify a trade for me in this to lock in profit.
Good luck,and here's hoping I get my electricity back some time soon!