back-lay-trade-horses-football: 13/1

Fenerbahce should continue the form of Trabonspor and Galatasary in the Cup but they were both at home. Still Fener face Division 3 side and should win with ease. 1.29 is very tempting.
Niggles? Betting blind. I know nothing of their opponents or their motivation towards cup game, or team news. Fener's away form in top flight has been poor.
All that apart, I like big gulfs in class and this is one.

First Rock has the unique distinction of being a maiden runner despite winning twice already. With this in mind, surely he has a great chance of placing in the first 2 in a race which involves 2 under 10/1 and 3 under 20/1

So is she surely cannot be another 1/9 shot at the same venue to lose in the space of around a week? Probability wise, it is just so slight. Still this is a seller and So is she is running in a seller for a reason.

It is a choice between trying for another bet around 1.3 ( Fenerbahce) or the relatively safer First Rock.

*****130 SOUTHWELL - First Rock to place only**** - should be a shock if a winner already cannot place in the first 2 in a maiden with current top all weather jockey onboard

Local Hero won at a decent enough 1.31 and Franklino again decided not to give his running.

6pm - Malatyaspor v Fenerbahce - 1.29 away Division 3B v Top flight. Recent Turkish Cup matches featuring top flight teams and lower leagues teams have not brought any surprises of late.
Galatasary took a while to get going recently, and perhaps Fenerbahce might struggle and eventually pull away.
4 of last 5 for home side have been 1-1 ( twice) and 1-0 ( twice).
7pm - Man Utd (Res) v Bolton (Res) - 1.29 home - 1 win in last 9 for Bolton Reserves augurs well for Man Utd reserves.
Man Utd reserves have only lost 1 of last 12
Last 3 Man Utd reserve matches have had 5,4,6 goals.
Last 4 Bolton matches have featured 4,0,5,3 goals.
Very illiquid betting market alas as this goals pattern looks strong.
9pm - Real Madrid v Atl Madrid - 1.33 home - Real have one over their rivals in last 3 head to heads. Atl Madrid are coming off a 4 goal mauling by Hercules. You would suspect a strong Real side will make home advantage count this evening. Derbies are always difficult games to weigh up as they can positively affect the teams and make them play above the level of their recent form.
2 legged matches are difficult betting mediums too. We saw yesterday that Arsenal were not overtly alarmed to lose 1-0 in the first leg. It makes a difference to the motivation of sides who find themselves marginally behind.
Wounded animal syndrome like Ipswich yesterday? Atl Madrid may try to ensure they do not concede 4 again tonight.

110 HEREFORD

BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Togiak, 11/2 Grey Gold, 11/2 Valley View, 9/1 Cruise Control, 12/1 Jacko´s Boy, 14/1 Senses, 16/1 Spinning Waters, 25/1 Caddie Master, 25/1 Major Potential, 33/1 Bay Central, 33/1 Eddie Boy, 50/1 Shoudhavenownbettr, 50/1 Su Bleu, 100/1 Fraamtaaztiic, 100/1 Little Buddy, 100/1 Milo Milan.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Few that can be considered in a weak novice hurdle and if TOGIAK reproduces anything like his useful Flat form on his hurdling debut he will be very hard to beat. Grey Gold could be the best each-way alternative.[Frank Carter]

Valley View is the one for money here into favouratism but heavy ground means I will probably have to dismiss Hereford today.

410 HEREFORD

BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Arrayan, 6/1 Man Of Leisure, 6/1 Monsieur, 6/1 Sail And Return, 10/1 Fight Club, 14/1 Don Jose, 25/1 Thievery, 33/1 Kielder Rise, 50/1 Arthurian, 66/1 Sheezatreasure.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ARRAYAN (nap) is ahead of the handicapper and, although carrying such a welter burden in testing ground is not ideal, his rider's claim is a help and he can follow up his Wincanton win. Fight Club may be the best each-way alternative.[Frank Carter]

Huge price gapper here still in this heavy ground. 4/6 - - - - 7/1 - concerns with weight and heavy ground amply detailed by Spotlight above.

420 KEMPTON

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Matsunosuke, 2/1 Vhujon, 7/2 Athwaab, 16/1 Doctor´s Cave.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Put simply, Matsunosuke will win if running close to his official mark of 97 but he's not one to trust. A solid alternative is VHUJON, who has recorded an RPR of at least 75 on his last seven starts. Athwaab could be dangerous if allowed a soft lead.[Ron Wood]

This should be a 3 horse race for 2 places. Mats is 10/11 in the betting " but he's not one to trust" says Spotlight.

130 SOUTHWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 First Rock, 6/5 Sail Home, 16/1 Shouda, 33/1 Jingoism, 33/1 Mojeerr.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not easy judging the relative merits of bumper form and Flat form but FIRST ROCK, who has experience here, is just preferred to Sail Home who should win a race at some point.[Graeme North]

First Rock has George Baker onboard and that may swing it in his favour in another race where only 2 horses are under 12/1

230 SOUTHWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 1/8 So Is She, 13/2 Evelyns Diamond, 14/1 Ivy And Gold.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SO IS SHE is unlikely to be a working man's price but appears to have a very straightforward task.[Graeme North]

You'll get a better pay off trying to find the horse to place 2nd ( presumption that So is She wins)

Do you remember what happened to the last 1/9 shot in another seller? He lost - came 2nd.

330 SOUTHWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 8/15 Dubai Hills, 11/2 Striker Torres, 6/1 Conry, 16/1 Alpha Tauri, 20/1 Wigram´s Turn.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: DUBAI HILLS (nap) is very hard to oppose in a bid a for a four-timer. Striker Torres might edge it for second given he also goes well here.[Graeme North]

I must admit I have been rather dismissive of Dubai Hills recently and he has now won his last 3. This winning run must end soon.

SHORTLIST

It is a frustrating day following a day that was bursting with one a day bets ( Barcelona, Bull Five etc etc). Typical!!!

6pm - Malatyaspor v Fenerbahce - 1.29 away - I am betting blind here - re team news and motivation for the away side who are clearly better than their home side opponents. The big boys have posted 3-1 wins recently against similar opponents ( Trabonspor and Galatasary) and I expect a motivated first team from Fenerbahce to win this evening. Interestingly Fenerbahce are 1.2 with Ladbrokes so we are eeking out a bit more profit from Betfair.

+1.5 to +2.5 asian handicap quotes suggest a minimum 1 goals Fenerbahce win with ideal 2 goal win.

1.2 over 1.5 goals involves both sides.