Saturday 28 February 2009

28/2

225 DON

BETTING FORECAST:
8/11 Lake Legend, 7/2 Fassaroe, 13/2 Border Reiver, 8/1 Burnt Oak, 20/1 Carndonagh, 25/1 King Lok, Triton, 40/1 Northern Blaze, 50/1 The Kealshore Kid, Wherrimon.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Fassaroe is big threat if improving for cheekpieces and the step up in trip but LAKE LEGEND (nap) is likely to carry on improving for some time, given he's a brother to the talented jumper My Petra, and he is preferred.[PJ]

Price gapper here 1.11 place

320 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Hell´s Bay, 5/2 The Shoe, 7/1 Pheidias, 16/1 Bouggler, 25/1 Erin´s Own.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The Shoe shaped well enough on his British debut to suggest he can make a race of it with HELL'S BAY, who stands out in this company judged on his form in better races.[

Nicholls horse the fav here and big drop in class 1.17 place

Hells Bay for me today at the prices



Friday 27 February 2009

27/2

2 placers yesterday - Presvis at the bigger price won well and is a group horse, it would seem, in handicap company

135 NEWB
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Tasheba, 100/30 Forget It, 5/1 Silk Hall, 10/1 Astrodome, Ragamuffin Man, 12/1 Wild Desert, Yetholm, 14/1 Coeur De Fou, Narcisco, 20/1 Dantari, Rock Exhibition, 33/1 Border Owl, Valento, 66/1 Uncle Arther, 100/1 Opening Act, 150/1 Woody´s Dream.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Forget It sets a decent standard on his Sandown debut third but preference is for Triumph entry TASHEBA, who was a much better horse on the Flat and is sure to have been taught his job by his trainer who has a good record with juvenile hurdlers here.

4 horses sub 12/1 1.68 / 1.59 / 1.9 to place the front 3
Ragamuffin Mn slight move into 7/1

145 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Key Regard, 3/1 Wray Castle, 6/1 Scandal, 8/1 Suhailah, 10/1 Filun, Trempari, 25/1 Tilly Shilling.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Wray Castle went with some promise on his Flat debut and is respected but KEY REGARD stayed on nicely once the penny dropped here on his debut and can put that experience to good use this time

Key regard odds on now - 2 the place and a maiden horse who has only had one run 1.32 only 2 places

200 DON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Gold Award, 7/4 Calusa Crystal, 5/1 The Panama Kid, 10/1 Raider Of The East, 25/1 Bardolet, 33/1 Autumn Harvest, 66/1 Fenwick Sands, Noz, 100/1 Not Talking.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks between GOLD AWARD and Calusa Crystal and, although the latter has valuable hurdling experience and the advantage of a fairly recent run, preference is for the Henderson representative, who created a favourable impression in bumpers and looks a useful recruit to the hurdling ranks.

Conditional jockeys the negative BUT 3 outsiders in a 9 runner race and 3 sub 20/1 make this interessting probability wise, but can we trust these conditionals? 1.19 / 1.24 /1.68 the front 3 to place
Gold award has been off for a year but Calusa Crystal has a recent run and recent win under his belt and would be the one I would side with

210 NEWB
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Michel Le Bon, 11/4 According To Dick, 5/1 Theophrastus, 10/1 Duke Of Miskin, Lord Ragnar, 11/1 Qianshan Leader, 12/1 Roman Conquest, 14/1 Sassanias, 16/1 Fiftyonefiftyone, 25/1 Pale Rider, 33/1 Back Exit, Bankstair, Lesmoir, 100/1 King Of Java, Moonlight Cantor, 150/1 Spiders Nephew, 200/1 Albert Park, Giollacca.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It would be unwise to overstate how well the form of his win has worked out through the second's subsequent form over longer trips but MICHEL LE BON is still a promising prospect and can make the most of the 4lb he receives from Cheltenham entry According To Dick, who is feared along with the promising Theophrastus

4 under 25/1 in the live amrket , Michel steady at the head of the market, and According to Dick a Cheltenham entry 1.36 both the front 2 to place

215 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Itshim, 9/2 River Rye, 6/1 Imperial Skylight, 8/1 Give Us A Song, 12/1 Kamanja,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Little doubt that the progressive Itshim is miles ahead of his mark despite a penalty but he does have to prove his stamina for this trip, even at an easy track like this. He may well win but at the likely odds, it may be worth chancing RIVER RYE, who did well here in the week and can win off her current mark

A horse I have history with - he won when flagged up as a 6/1 market mover and I place backed him next time. Near rival River Rye is a non runner - 4/6 in the live market - expected to bag the hatrick? Still 2 the place on betfair 1.25 to place

230 DON
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Sergheyev, 2/1 Noticeable, 3/1 Sparkling Montjeu, 12/1 Act Sirius, 14/1 Ericarrow, 33/1 Little Firecracker, 66/1 Gilded Youth, Paradigm Investor.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Sergheyev is the pick of these weights but he dropped out very quickly on his chase debut (after jumping well) and it's a bit of a concern that he's pitched into this company after a break. Sparkling Montjeu may be capable of better over hurdles but the one that appeals most is NOTICEABLE, who won a poor C&D seller with plenty in hand last time and he won't have to step up too much on that level to go close.

3 only under 25/1 - 8 horse race - 3 the place BUT a claiming hurdle. 3 in contention if the market is accurate but which will place? 1.17 / 1.15 / 1.64 to place the front 3

240 NEWB
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Pepsyrock, 8/1 Farmer´s Lad, 9/1 Its Crucial, Kelrev, Sole Agent, 12/1 Rapide Plaisir, 16/1 High Oscar, Hope Road.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: If he's in the same mood as last week, PEPSYROCK (nap), who is 5lb ahead of the handicapper, should oblige again. Rapide Plaisir, who relishes a sound surface, could be the one to profit if the selection fails to deliver.[PJ]

Now that's a price gap! BUT it's not as apparent in the live market with Farmers lad clipped in to 11/2 ( if sub 5/1 will be of interest)
The straight 8 again 1.25 to place

255 FAKENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 2/7 Forty Five, 6/1 Rockjumper, 9/1 Gunnadoit, 16/1 Diktatorship, 25/1 Magic Amigo, Mceldowney, 66/1 Prince Louis.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks a straightforward task for the progressive FORTY FIVE in his quest for a quickfire hat-trick. Rockjumper looks a distant second best and may be the one for the forecast.

McCoy oon an odds on shot - massive price gap in live market BUT only 2 places so we have to be ultra confident 1.14 to place

330 FAKENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Gloucester, 7/4 Know The Law, 10/1 Chalice Welcome, 12/1 Galley Slave, 33/1 Bold Phoenix, Government, 66/1 Haughton Hope, Kingdom Of Heaven, Nothing Lost.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Gloucester's consistent form makes him the yardstick but he is vulnerable to an improver and may have to play second fiddle to newcomer KNOW THE LAW, who was a fair handicapper on the Flat. Chalice Welcome could go well if he translates his improved AW form to hurdles.

2 under 14/1 and 3 under 33/1 -surely we concentrate on Gloucester and Know the Law - if only it were that simple! - one is a debutant in this maiden hurdle 1.12 and 1.16 the front 2 to place

420 NEWB
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Limerick Boy, 2/1 Distant Thunder, 13/2 Royal Hector, 20/1 Bob Justice, 25/1 Dennis The Legend, 66/1 Cape Verde Sal, Earth Moving, Jaoka Du Gord.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Royal Hector has a lot more on his plate than 12 months ago with LIMERICK BOY and Distant Thunder class acts from the past who should be capable of doing some damage in this sphere. Both will get maximum assistance from the saddle and it could be close.

A 3 horse race? But bob and Dennis 16/1? Possible movers? 1.17 and 1.19 the front 2 to place

435 FAKE
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Cunning Clarets, 7/2 Gospel Spirit, 4/1 Good Faloue, 6/1 Conington, 8/1 Decent Lord, 10/1 Action Girl, 20/1 Ferula, 66/1 Late For Class, Whyte Avenue.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Conington, Gospel Spirit, Good Faloue and Action Girl all have a future, but this looks a good opportunity for CUNNING CLARETS to confirm the promise of her debut second at Newcastle.

Bigger price gap in live market but this is a bumper 1.24

445 DON
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Fairyland, I´m Delilah, 5/1 Well Disguised, 6/1 Heavenly Chorus, 7/1 Moonlight Music, Overbranch, 10/1 Smarties Party.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: All of these have some sort of chance but nothing appeal more than I'M DELILAH (nap), who posted her best effort over hurdles at Musselburgh last time and is capable of going close from this mark on her handicap debut. Last year's winner Heavenly Chorus has conditions to suit and may be the biggest danger

Smarties Party in to 6/1

455 NEWB
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Porta Vogie, 5/1 Low Delta, 7/1 Ashwell Lad, 8/1 Free To Air, Immense, World Shift, 10/1 Sawpit Sunset, 12/1 Montana Gold, 16/1 Hillridge, Lunar Rock, Particle, 25/1 Ben Ryan, Sovereign Spirit, Tinchel, 50/1 Indian Chase, Oscar Owen.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: FREE TO AIR could be the answer to an open finale, as he was not short of stamina during his Flat career and is well worth a try at this trip with conditions now less taxing. Porta Vogie and Sawpit Sunset are also expected to take a hand.[AWJ]

Hillridge now 8/1

515 DON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Mail De Bievre, 5/2 Transact, 10/1 Barron Watlass, Cocoa Key, Kayf Commander, 33/1 Minstalad, Shes A Geeza, 66/1 Landofgreenginger.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Mail De Bievre created a good impression when successful in testing ground on his debut but it remains to be seen whether he's as good in these very different conditions. The market will be a good guide but at this stage he could be worth taking on with TRANSACT, whose dam won twice on the very quick Equitrack surface and he's from a yard that does really well in this type of race. [RY]

BAron Watlass 7/1 -fav is Thornton/King but only one run and that was on different ground - another bmper 1.15 to place

920 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Co Dependent, 5/2 Green Dynasty, 5/1 Laminka, 20/1 Hypnotic Gaze, 25/1 Frightnight, 33/1 Burza, Petrenko, 66/1 Piccolo Express.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Unless Laminka is above average, this looks a good opportunity for CO DEPENDENT to get off the mark with Green Dynasty probably wanting further.

Hypnotic gaze 12/1

irish flat boys return, ones to follow as with an article in WRWM - Weld (trainer) , Smullen (jockey) , Murtagh (jockey) , Aiden O'Brien (trainer) , Lordan (jockey) and Wachman(trainer)

I would back each way prices with these guys involved

ONE A DAY

200 DON - Calusa Crystal I would side with - Gold award off since 13 march 2008
210 NEWb - According to Dick and Michel Le bon - but which to chose? Will they both get placed in this 18 runner race
240 NEWB - Pepysrock looks good in a straight 8 race - 5 to beat to place and Barry Geraghty on board. Needs to replicate 6 length win last time out
255 FAK - Forty Five the obvious candidate of the day, BUT in a 2 the place race
330 FAKENHAM - BEtween Know the law and Gloucester - the former a hurdling debutant BUT under AP McCioy - the latter hugely experienced in this discipline and priced to be very competitive - tricky choice - both priced exactly the same in the win market - 5 horses at 33/1 or bigger/
420 NEWB - Limerick Boy and Distant thuinder - preference for former under same jockey who won on him

CONCLUSION - Forty Five under McCoy is ok for me at 1.14 BUT only 2 places BUT McCoy on a 2/7 shot!
Other races look 2 horse affairs, and we need to be sure the one we pick is the one who will place! Lots of bigger prices on offer for those willing to take sides and decide on one over the other

Thursday 26 February 2009

26/2

PLACE ONLY - The Old Pretender 2nd , An Innocent man unplaced (that's maiden hurdles for you!) , Razor Royale 1st 4/6 , Silk Affair 1st 2/13 ( MY ONE A DAY) , IT's all a racket 1st 8/11 , Yungaburra 4th (big drifter and hindsight -poor sprint seller) , 320 BAngor only Gold reef unplaced of the front 3 , Galileo Figaro lost ( on a hatrick and a drifter -as mentioned the market drift was the clue here ) , Ultimate limit 3rd ( one of 3 who were left clear and another ONE A DAY PLACE at a nicer 1.29 ) , I'm the decider wins , DAnte's storm wins , Sherwani Wolf 2nd , Hammersmith wins, Forty Thirty unplaced ( I did mention a horse who has failed to impress, and so he did )
MARKET MOVERS - The Dodgy Carey broke leg when on flat , Royal acclamation non runner , Agglestone Rock 3rd 9/4, Moment present 4/1 2nd in same race , BEarneen Boy 1st 7/2 ( another winner for the sub 5/1 market movers! after 2 yesterday) , Witch of the wave nk nk 4th (so close to placing! ) 9/1 Irish saint unplaced 8/1 , BEst profile unplaced 10/1 , Air Maze 1st 5/4 (early market move proved accurate) , Russian trigger 1st 12/1 (the money must have been down early when I saw the 6/1 and the money proved well placed!) , Dr McFab 11th 7/1 (was an early sub 5/1 mover but drifted over 5/1) , Catalan bay 4th 10/11 and Gunfigheter in the same race refused to race , What de you know Phil unplaced 14/1 , Timeshift 1 1/2 l 2nd 11/2 , Hill of Lujain 6th 8/1 , DAwn wind 3rd 6/1 and Cardinal James unplaced 4/1 , Rio Royale unplaced 5/1 , GAmbling Jack non runner and Countrywide comet unplaced 20/1

AGAIN, let's focus on the sub 5/1 market movers Agglestone rock 3rd 9/4 , Moment present 2nd 4/1 , Bearneen Boy 1st 7/2 , Air maze 1st 5/4 ,Catalan Bay 4th 10/11 , Cardinal James unplaced 4/1
Personally I would not havebet Air MAze and Catalan BAy but instead focussed on the each way(ish) prices including I suppose 9/4 so a 3rd, 2nd, 1st and unplaced

HAving great trouble with PC speed today so this will be brief and bare

300 TAUNTON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Quickbeam, 9/4 Predateur, 5/2 Mark The Book, 8/1 Lancaster Sound, 25/1 Sir Winston, 33/1 Spin The Gin, 50/1 Moon Bear, 100/1 Rock Captain.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With Quickbeam prone to mistakes and Predateur continually falling below expectations, it may pay to go for winning hurdler MARK THE BOOK, who shaped well over fences at Chepstow and, with a recent run to draw upon, can now show his true colours.[BDO]

Straight 8 - 3 over 50/1 - good probability - Sir Winston 12/1 - soft ground the concern

320 LUD
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Patsy Finnegan, 6/1 Ballinderry Park, 7/1 The Randy Bishop, 9/1 Karasakal, 10/1 Balthazar King, Walamo, 14/1 Archie Gunn, Brave Jewel, Rothres, 20/1 Chevy To The Levy, 25/1 Maree Hall.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PATSY FINNEGAN, officially 4lb ahead of the handicapper, has obvious credentials after the way he disposed of the opposition last week but there are plenty of other bang in-form stables with interesting runners, including Tony Carroll's The Randy Bishop, who will appreciate this step back up in trip over hurdles, and Gary Moore's Karasakal, who will appreciate this better ground and less forcing tactics.[PJ]
karasakil and Ballinderry Park possible market movers 4/1 and 11/2 - price gap dimininshed in live market

430 TAUNTON
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Qozak, 7/2 Postmaster, 10/1 Quinz, 14/1 Long Hop, 16/1 Kyoto, Sun Quest, 20/1 Dontsayathing, Paddys Honour, 25/1 Murfreesboro, 50/1 Own Up, Synonymy, 100/1 Awe, The Flying Phenom.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Postmaster is a very useful hurdler but he'll do well to successfully give weight to the classy French-import QOZAK (nap), who shaped really well on his debut for Paul Nicholls and has since impressed round here.[BDO]

Now 2/5 and only 3 sub double figutres
1.09
450 LUD
BETTING FORECAST: 8/15 Bob Hall, 5/1 Alvino, 9/1 Rowdy Yeats, 12/1 Gallik Dawn, 16/1 Enitsag, Super Nomad, 20/1 Milesian King, 33/1 Cassia Heights, Idbury, 50/1 Classic Shot, Give Me Love, 66/1 Howard Howard, Isotop, Verchoyles Lad.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Rowdy Yeats should have something to offer in these races but he wasn't at his best on his recent return and BOB HALL (nap), who ran so well in better company at Sandown recently, makes far more appeal. Alvino is preferred for the forecast.[EMW]

Alvino now 3/1

510 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Shifting Gold, 5/1 Diamond Surprise, Miss Christophene, Trueblue Wizard, 7/1 Hawkspring, 8/1 Mullitovermaurice, 16/1 Lady Salama.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Shifting Gold has done well since fitted with blinkers but one that appeals more is the consistent DIAMOND SURPRISE, who'll gain confidence from a recent course win and ought to benefit from this longer trip.[BDO]

True blue wizard sub 5/1 ( 3/1 at mo) so one for my system if staying below

520 LUD
BETTING FORECAST: 2/7 Eradicate, 6/1 Markila, Samsons Son, 14/1 Thomondgate, 33/1 Marino Prince, Miss Ladybird, Samurai Warrior, 40/1 Wandering Minstral, 50/1 Wahoo Sam, 66/1 Kenai, Missinlucan, Mr Burton, Right You Are, 150/1 Lake Barrine, 200/1 Deano Rosa.

Eradicate obvious1.06

645 NAD
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Presvis, 5/1 Barbaricus, 10/1 Hearthstead Maison, Once More Dubai, 14/1 Halicarnassus, Oracle West, With Interest, World Ruler, 25/1 Bound By Honour, Hello Morning, Yahrab, 33/1 Eddie Jock,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Although the price is going to be prohibitive, PRESVIS (nap) is by far and away the most likely winner after posting a performance that would have seen him hold his own in minor Group company on his UAE debut over C&D in January. He could have been hit harder than the 6lb he went up for that impressive success and this lightly raced sort, who is unbeaten in two starts under Ryan Moore, is capable of further progress. Barbaricus looks the chief danger if settling better than on his UAE debut. [RY]

Presvis01.26

ONE A DAY

Really rushed today as computer was hit by wuauclt and svchost.exe slowing it down making it imptactical to use!
Qozak 1.09 but big move into 2/5
Presvis would be my bigger priced alternative at 1.26 ( illiquid market)

































Now odds on but in a seller





























































MARKET MOVERS

210 FOLK
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Lord Tomnoddy, 5/2 The Old Pretender, 13/2 King Edmund, 12/1 Dorothy´s Friend, 16/1 Costa Courta, Dundry, 20/1 Rear Gunner, The Dodger Carey, 25/1 Prince Zafonic, Pugilist, Rebeccas Choice, 33/1 Maderson Blue, Majic Moments, 80/1 Mr Bojangels, 100/1 Giggles O´Shea,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The Old Pretender is clearly well capable of winning a race like this and conditions will not be nearly so taxing as those with which he blew his chance here last time out, but LORD TOMNODDY (nap) showed comparable form and lots of promise on his debut at Taunton.[RA]

Old Pretender now 7/4 fav
The Dodger Carey 20/1 in betting forecast now 6/1 in places!

230 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Many Welcomes, 9/2 All You Need, 8/1 Bold Diva, Great Knight, 9/1 Argentine, Imperial Djay, 10/1 Tamino, 12/1 Hunt The Bottle, 16/1 Blakeshall Quest, Piccolo Diamante, Royal Acclamation, 20/1 Kirkie, 25/1 Mr Skipiton.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Recent C&D winners All You Need and Many Welcomes are respected, particularly the latter, but they could be worth taking on with GREAT KNIGHT, who shaped encouragingly in a slightly higher grade here on his first outing for Sylvester Kirk and that form has been boosted since.[SB]

Royal Acclamation 16/1 betting forecast 4/1 in places
2 non runnerswere 8/1 and 12/1 may have impacted the market?

250 BANGOR
BETTING FORECAST: 9/2 Agglestone Rock, Moment Present, 5/1 Loco Grande, 11/2 Sacrilege, 7/1 Red And White, Rory Boy, 8/1 Akarshan, 12/1 Dontpaytheferryman, Karky Schultz.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Several to consider. Moment Present, who is held in some regard at home and looks just the sort for this type of contest, may be able to confirm form with Loco Grande but it could be worth hoping for improvement from RED AND WHITE now she can race on some less demanding going.[PJ]

Slight move the front 2 (11/4 and 5/2 live market) not templated 16/1 system though as per Donald yesterday

310 FOLK
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Wasntme, 11/4 Narlen, 4/1 Anna Panna, 7/1 Riccardo, 10/1 Bearneen Boy, 14/1 Debord, 20/1 Kourosh.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: WASNTME and Narlen are the only ones bringing any kind of momentum into the race and preference is for Colin Tizzard's winning pointer, who should benefit for coming back in distance if connections use the same positive tactics that were adopted at Taunton last week.[AWJ]

Bearneen Boy 9/2 in places

330 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 La Diosa, 5/1 Nicky Nutjob, Strikemaster, 13/2 Kochanski, 8/1 Screaming Brave, 10/1 Key Of Fortune, 12/1 Irish Saint, 14/1 Spring Quartet, 16/1 Saffron´s Son, Witch Of The Wave, 20/1 Kneesy Earsy Nosey, Miss Cracklinrosie.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: La Diosa is 2-2 for her new stable but this is a more open race than a quick glance at the form figures might suggest. Several of these may do better now sent handicapping and/or upped to this trip and the vote goes to KEY OF FORTUNE, whose latest effort has been boosted by all four of those that finished in front of her

Irish Saint and Witch of the wave

350 BANGOR
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Ultimate Limit, 6/1 Ballyvoge, 8/1 Never So Blue, 10/1 Cave Hill, 14/1 Best Profile, Darina´s Boy, Huckleberry, 16/1 Craven, 20/1 Durante, Lost In Normandy, 25/1 Aztec Warrior.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It's hard to look beyond ULTIMATE LIMIT, who's been a revelation since joining Alan Fleming and, off a featherweight, will be tough to beat.[BDO]


BEst profile 10/1

400 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Garra Molly, 9/4 Air Maze, 9/2 Taminas Desert, 8/1 Happy And Glorious, 14/1 Herecomesbella, Wusuul, 25/1 Give, Mill Beattie, 33/1 Thirtyfourthstreet, 50/1 Will Exell.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Garra Molly just about sets the standard on the pick of her turf efforts over further but AIR MAZE, who should be suited by another step up in distance, wouldn't need to improve much further to get off the mark. Support for Taminas Desert would be interesting.[SB]

Air maze now 5/4 in places - and 2 2nds to her name - but a maiden fillies race

410 FOLK
BETTING FORECAST: 9/2 Iwillrememberyou, 6/1 Apatura Dik, 13/2 New Perk, 7/1 Lyes Green, Maletton, The Ring, 9/1 Topless, 10/1 Enroblim Trop, 12/1 Pass Me A Dime, 16/1 Mister Apple´s, Monzon, Russian Trigger, 20/1 Dr Hart, 40/1 Alderbrook Girl.

Russian trigger now 6/1

430 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Safin, 9/2 Ice Bellini, 13/2 Rough Sketch, 7/1 Generous Star, 12/1 Drumhallagh, Josh You Are, 14/1 Cantabilly, Noubian, 16/1 Border Tale, Capitalise, 20/1 King De Lune, Millagros, 25/1 Dr McFab.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A few of these have dropped to handy marks on their best form, while there are also good reasons to consider Ice Bellini and Rough Sketch, but the vote goes to the in-form SAFIN who followed up a recent hurdles success in decent style at Southwell on Friday and is 2-2 under Graham Gibbons.[SB]

Dr McFab 3/1 , 11/4 in places - WHAT A MOVE! Drumhallagh less significant at 8/1

500 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Catalan Bay, 4/1 Caprio, 6/1 Cornus, Mr Macattack, 8/1 Guildenstern, Obezyana, 14/1 Orpen Wide, 20/1 Gunfighter.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A mark of 75 could prove lenient for CATALAN BAY (nap) judged on her Australian form and she can be expected to build on a promising British debut. Caprio and Cornus are feared most.[SB]

Gunfighter 8/1 and Catalan Bay now 5/4 solid at head of market

510 FOLK
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Sherwani Wolf, 7/1 J´Adhere, 8/1 Amber Shell, 12/1 Pretti Woman, 16/1 What De Know Phil, 20/1 Devoran Quay, Joli Al, 33/1 Another Miracle, Justalittlebitmore.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There is very little in the way of racecourse evidence but what there is suggests that SHERWANI WOLF is a useful prospect and likely to set a daunting standard for today's newcomers.[RA]

Slight move for What de Know Phil now 10/1 in places

520 BANGOR
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Edge Of Town, 9/2 Lough Inchiquinn, 11/2 Jubilee Queen, Shannina, 9/1 Marwan, 10/1 Lannacombe Clover, 12/1 Timeshift, 14/1 Maidstone Maresaca, Tough Cookie, 20/1 My Little Goldie, Spring Haze, 25/1 Holy Balloney, 50/1 Torta Nel Cielo, 66/1 Blues Baby Daisey, Mister Rez.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Mick Easterby has been mopping up this type of race recently and has another likely contender in LOUGH INCHIQUINN, who is given a narrow vote over likely improvers Edge Of Town and Shannina.[PJ]


Timeshift 6/1 in places

600 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Giddywell, 7/2 Waldorf, 5/1 Stoic Leader, 6/1 Hurricane Coast, Machinate, 14/1 Speagle, 16/1 Make Amends, 20/1 Hill Of Lujain, 25/1 Berrymead, 33/1 Magical Mimi.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It's still difficult to be sure what WALDORF's optimum trip is likely to be but he looks worth this step back in distance and, the least exposed runner, may be able to make an impact off a modest mark on his handicap debut. Giddywell and Machinate are others for the shortlist.[SB]

Hill of Lujain 12/1 in plac es

720 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Forty Thirty, 6/1 Cardinal James, 8/1 Soul Singer, 12/1 Treasure Islands, 16/1 Dawn Wind, Rossatron, 20/1 Rannoch Rose, 25/1 Double Exposure, 50/1 Wild By Nature.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Forty Thirty sets the standard but he needs to settle better than he did on his reappearance and at the likely prices he could be worth taking on. Soul Singer is capable of better, but CARDINAL JAMES showed a bit of promise in two bumpers and is being introduced in a very winnable event here.[PSm]


Cardinal james 3/1 in places and Dawn wind 6/1 in places

820 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Emirates World, 3/1 Markyg, 5/1 Auld Arty, Grand Honour, 8/1 Give Us A Song, 12/1 Rio Royale, 16/1 Asian Tale.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Auld Arty and Grand Honour should both run their race under these conditions and are respected, but MARKYG and Emirates World may be open to more improvement. Preference is for the former, who looks on a very competitive mark on the pick of his juvenile form.[PSm]
Rio Royale 7/1 in places

920 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Kielty´s Folly, 9/2 Inquisitress, 6/1 Amber Moon, 8/1 Flamestone, Kinsman, Whodunit, 10/1 Daggerman, Mr Rev, 16/1 Countrywide Comet, 20/1 Bet Noir, Gambling Jack, 33/1 Flipacoin, 50/1 Where To Now.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Kielty's Folly ran a better race at Wolverhampton and should go well but plenty looks in place for a big run from INQUISITRESS and she can capitalise on her tumbling mark.[PSm]

Countrywide comet now 12/1 in places and Gambling Jack 14/1 in places

ONE A DAY PLACE ONLY BETTING
SHORTLIST
215 DOWN - An innocent man - 3 2nd places and 1.11 to place but this is a maiden hurdle over questionable ground
240 FOLK - Silk affair at 1.07 is in a race with 3 clear outsiders and 3 to place -unlike Song of Songs who only had 2 to place
300 WOLVES - Yungaburra - drop from class 4 to class 6 selling stakes today and a kind of borderline price gapper in a poor handicap ( yes I know this is a seller) Heavy odds on shot now - 2 non runners redce field to straight 8 1.18 to place
Slight concern Robert Winston onboard has not ridden horse before - where's Adam Kirby?
350 BANGOR - very eyecatching price gap here for Ultimate Limit " off a feather weight" - out of the handicap ( not sure what that means!) Cannot ignore this price gap though, BUT 3 miles is a long way 1.29 to place
400 WOLVES - Air maze is of interest having been backed into favouratism 2 2nd places albeit at a furlong less than today , but a progressive enough profile and should come in the first 3 ( backed as if tthat is a definite consideration) 1.19 to place
510 FOLK - Sherwani Wolf a big price gapper but no experience among market rivals means how on earth can we tell how good they are? 1.1 to place

All strong in their own way this lot above. For simplicity sake, Silk affair is the one today at 1.07 with 3 places, and 3 outsiders at 66/1 and one at 40/1 in an 8 runner race!
Yungaburra does appeal with the drop in class but this is a 5 furlong seller but 1.18 bumps the price up a bit
350 BANGOR - Ultimate Limit pushes the prices up further to 1.29 - this I suppose relates to the race distance of 3 miles which is a long way. HE has the profile of a HTB selection (SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It's hard to look beyond ULTIMATE LIMIT, who's been a revelation since joining Alan Fleming and, off a featherweight, will be tough to beat)
"escapes penalty for last week´s easy success for this jockey and conditions suit; hard to beat, even from 3lb out of handicap"

Here's a definition of "out of the handicap"
You often hear about a horse competing in a race from out of the handicap. When this happens, a trainer will appreciate that they're biting off more than they can chew in the hope that their horse has the ability to make up for a deficiency in merit that the handicapper deems the horse to have.
In short, horses that run from out the handicap are runnig with more
weight than they should be (according to their official rating), but
have no choice as the bottom weight is a minimum of 10 stone. The more
weight the top horse carries, more chance the bottom horse will 'stay
in' the handicap.

WHat is the significance of this?

We can chance the big price gap as our pointer to Ultimate Limit as a selection. At 1.29 it is a very appealing price comparitive to Silk affair. I would personally follow this bet in running and react accordingly, my total confidence in the bet dampened by the "out of the hadnicap " thing - I simply don't have a clear grasp of that.
CONCLUSION
Silk affair for me today at a crap price is my rock solid one at 1.07
Ultimate Limit would be my riskier higher priced selection at 1.29