Friday 13 February 2009

13/2

Nawamees was an outstanding bet yesterday to place - especially at 1.17 which felt a big like daylight robbery!
Some great winners for the market movers - Victory Gunner at 11/1 (bigger on Betfair the highlight) and Tzacky I think the horses's name was, in a tight finish 2nd at 14/1 , 7/2 and 6/1 winner as well
So, some hope here? I know there are a lot of market mover selections and some are false but it's certainly promising

140 FAIRYHOUSE
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Majestic Oak, 6/1 Barneys Honour, Tajweed, 8/1 Arrak, Exchange Rate, Fields Of Glory, Geestring, 10/1 King´s Bastion, 12/1 Doransfirth, 14/1 Boyney Boy, Knocklayde Rose, Rashar Og, 20/1 Confirm, Donoughmore, Itsuptoyou, Kamala Bay.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TAJWEED could be the one here if making an effective transition to hurdling on his first run for Luke Comer. One of two former-British trained Flat winners in the field for the stable, the four-year-old has the merit of having won over 1m2f on soft ground, and may be better suited by this test than King's Bastion, whose wins were gained over 5f and 7f on better going.\n

Noiw 6/4 the fav but this is heavy ground at Fairyhouse and we must be disciplined where heavy ground is concerned

145 ling
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Bridgewater Boys, 9/4 Augustus John, 12/1 Ben Bacchus, 14/1 Maddy, Poppy Red, Shouldntbethere, Starstruck Peter, 16/1 Turner´s Touch, 25/1 Competitor, Tashkandi, 50/1 Stroppi Poppi.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: In a race lacking strength in depth, this promises to develop into a match between BRIDGEWATER BOYS and Augustus John with the proven winner just getting the nod.[GN]

Apprentice Selling Stakes - looks like a 2 horse race. 1.26 to place for both of these. CAn we trust apprentices on horses in sellers?

205 SANDDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Torphichen, 6/1 James De Vassy, Trenchant, 10/1 Art Exhibition, True Blue Saga, 16/1 Border Owl, 25/1 Psi, 33/1 Astrodome.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Torphichen was the best of these on the Flat and is a general 20-1 for the Triumph Hurdle after winning in good style on his hurdling debut, but the form is not the most solid and he has more on his plate in this company. He could be worth taking on with JAMES DE VASSY who looked sure to benefit from his debut win at Wincanton and is a virtual unknown quantity

True Blue Saga 6/1 market mover
Soft ground and a McCoyhot pot. 1.19 to place. Will these market movers prove accurate or false signals?

210 FAIRYHOUSE
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Uimhiraceathair, 5/2 Lismakeery, 13/2 Dul Ar An Ol, 8/1 Mister Matt, 10/1 Mr Nice, 14/1 Chapmans Peak, 16/1 Benbaystar, Sam Adams, 20/1 Gleannacreim, Notabitrude, Sean Ogue, 25/1 Atmywitsend, 33/1 Iamback, Whitsbury Cross, 50/1 Oughterlin, Tango Sally,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: UIMHIRACEATHAIR, who failed to produce a performance in keeping with his smart bumper form on his hurdling debut at Thurles last month, is worth another chance. Likely to be a lot sharper as a result of the outing, he should not be inconvenienced by the ground on the evidence of his 19l win from the useful Academy Sir Harry at Navan last March. His status as an above-average bumper winner was confirmed when he beat some useful types at the Curragh in May.\n
No winners

Now odds on and the look of a 2 horse race but again heavy ground is the concern

215 LINGIFELD
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Badge Of Honour, 7/1 Diamond Twister, 8/1 Bishop Rock, Garter Knight, 9/1 Gaselee, 12/1 El Bravo, 25/1 Stormy´s Prelude, 33/1 Broughton Beck, Milemilia.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: El Bravo and Gaselee are potential improvers at this longer trip, but BADGE OF HONOUR has already shown form of a level usually required to win a race like this at this time of year and can get off the mark.[GN]

Price gapper in a maiden race Still odds on but Diamond Twister is now 4/1,tightening the price gap.

An odds on maiden horse.
GArter Knight the market mover into 9/2

235 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Supreme Keano, 7/2 Appleaday, 11/2 Bowleaze, 8/1 Mistress Nell, 12/1 Lord Killeshanra, 14/1 Golden Child, 16/1 Maletton, 40/1 Nudge And Nurdle,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Bowleaze and Appleaday deserve plenty of respect but SUPREME KEANO (nap), lightly raced and unexposed, looks the type to go on to better things and is likely to prove hard to beat.[FC]

Golden Child and Malleton potential market movers but this may be a reaction to Bowleaze being a non runner
Supreme Keano has won his last 3, is evens in places and has 3000 man McCoy on board - 1.29 in a 7 runner race paying out 3 the place

255 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Dichoh, 3/1 Teasing, 4/1 Carnivore, 6/1 Bobski, 8/1 Garden Party, 12/1 Ten Pole Tudor, 50/1 Veronicas Way.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: DICHOH didn't look the easiest ride here last time but he stuck to his task well enough and that won't apply to some of his rivals this time. He is taken to make a winning start for a stable that has done well this winter, with Teasing looking the biggest danger.[

7 down to 5 runners -one at 50/1 so Dichoh looks good here to place now odds on, BUT this is a middle distance claimer and its only 2 the place 1.2 to place -

310 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Bannister Lane, 3/1 Mr Big, 11/2 Triggernometry, 16/1 Heart Springs, 20/1 Sir Brastias, 25/1 Cruising River, The Big Breakfast, 100/1 Saddlers Blaze.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BANNISTER LANE is partnered by an inexperienced rider and has to be excused a poor effort last time, but remains difficult to oppose given he has 12lb or more in hand on official figures and is likely to get his own way up front. Mr Big could follow him home.

3 under 12/1
Sir Brastias now 12/1 and Crusing River 20/1 and 16/1 in places are the market movers - amateur riders event so no bet

330 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Desert Lark, 4/1 Tunder Bool, 6/1 High Five Society, 10/1 Desert Lover, Jiminor Mack, Kielty´s Folly, 12/1 Carry On Cleo, Glamoroso, 14/1 Pembo, Spy Gun, 20/1 Bobering, 25/1 Little Firecracker, 33/1 Kai Mer.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Tunder Bool is interesting on his British debut and any market confidence would look significant, while Desert Lark caught the proverbial tartar last time and remains capable of better. HIGH FIVE SOCIETY is back into this grade for the first time since winning twice here in 2008 and he is worth chancing in a modest heat.

Kai Mer 18/1 in places

420 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Hohlethelonely, 13/2 Suntini, 8/1 Gabreselassie, 9/1 Youngstown, 10/1 Darstardly Dick, Silk Affair, Troque, 12/1 Blazing Desert, 16/1 Northern Lad, Reblis, 20/1 Jean Le Poisson, Kadouchski, Sangfroid, Wise Men Say, 25/1 Quelclasse, 33/1 That´s An Honour.

Silk affair now 7/2

455 FAIRYHOUSE
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Alexander Seaview, 11/2 Shang A Lang, 6/1 Womanofthemountain, 7/1 Frankford, 8/1 Geneva Silver, 10/1 Cottage Lady, Haste Ye Bach, 16/1 Graceful Grainne, Mountain Time.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ALEXANDER SEAVIEW is the sole runner for Willie Mullins from an entry of eight that comprised five other unraced geldings and two with previous placed form. On pedigree the omens are bright for a debut success for the Bob Back gelding, since his dam won a bumper first time out, and his half-sister Lough Cuan captured a maiden hurdle on her initial outing.\n

Willie Mullins price gapper in a bumper

500 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 King´s Majesty, 9/2 William´s Way, 5/1 Ardmaddy, 7/1 Sand Repeal, 9/1 Zalkani, 10/1 Saloon, Vinces, 14/1 Spume, 16/1 Captain Mainwaring, 33/1 Capitalise.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A tactical affair in prospect, which could enable the likes of Sand Repeal and Vinces to show up well, though that scenario should also suit KING'S MAJESTY given his turn of foot, so long as he doesn't get too far back to make best use of it. Saloon isn't the most straightforward but might well have benefited from a break and change of stable.[GN]

Zalkani and Spume market movers -6/1 and 10/1 in the live market


ONE A DAY PLACE ONLY

A day with very little appeal
145 LING - " the promise of a 2 horse race" - a brave call by Spotlight in an appentice ridden seller. Can we trust the front 2 to be fighting it out at the business end ?
205 SANDOWN - Torphincen has McCoy on board , but you'll recall what I said about soft ground in the Racing Post not necessarily being soift grond at the course - ie we need to ensure ground is not heavy either visually or through the Racing Post.
215 LING - Badge of Honour now odds on and was a big betting forecast price gapper
9 runner field - 2 are 66/1 and one is 40/1 reducing the competitive field, it is hoped, down to 6 runners - and 3 the place. mark Johnston and Greg Fairley are a good partnership, -the horse is up in trip 2 furlongs for the first time.
235 SANDOWN - Supreme Keano - "likely to be hard to beat" - McCoy on board but again the soft ground issue over 3 miles - need to check it is NOT heavy ground - now 7 runners and 3 the place
Supremem Keano for me today I think at 1.28, with 3 to place. All will depend on the ground remaining soft and not deteriorating. It the latter happens, NO BET.
A potential alternative today could be Badge of Honour, purely putting faith in the betting forecast price gap 8/11 ------7/1


3 comments:

Clive Keeling said...

GOING: SOFT (Good to soft in back straight on Chase course; Heavy in places on Hurdle course; GoingStick: Chs 6.6 Hdl 6.1) (Home bend shared between Chasers and Hurdlers, so hurdle race distances to be reduced by 25 metres a circuit)

Clive Keeling said...

GOING: SOFT (Good to soft in back straight on Chase course; Heavy in places on Hurdle course; GoingStick: Chs 6.6 Hdl 6.1) (Home bend shared between Chasers and Hurdlers, so hurdle race distances to be reduced by 25 metres a circuit)

Clive Keeling said...

2:22pm
Testing ground

The Sandown ground was described as "proper soft" by Robert Thornton and "dead" by Noel Fehily after the first race.