14/2

"A potential alternative today could be Badge of Honour, purely putting faith in the betting forecast price gap 8/11 ------7/1"

So ended yesterday's message

This was the 215 - a couple of races before ill fated Supreme Keano and got me out of jail! Supreme Keano was one of those jumps casualties who simply unseated rider. This has been the cause of previous place only failures in the past, most notably Kauto Star, and is one of the aspects of jumps racing that we cannot foresee.

Badge of Honour 2nd yesterday and the price gap was very enticing. All other selections placed.
One winner yesterday on the market movers at 9/2 I think negated some losses. I must admit there were some big priced selections so we cannot realistically expect success every day.

If Supreme KEano was a n inclusion yesterday in the target profits per day, well we have a number of football matches especially to act as sources for loss retrieval ( although my personal preference is to top up betting bank with lost stake and continue

Heavy ground at AScot and Uttoxeter - soft at Haydock ( by looking at www.racingpost.com nearer race time we can judge whether ground here has turned heavy, although I suspect with all of the cancellations there have been recently, that the jumps courses could be avoided?

120 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Kasbah Bliss, 7/2 Duc De Regniere, 8/1 Sweetheart, 20/1 Turpin Green, 25/1 Accordello, 33/1 Hills Of Aran.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: KASBAH BLISS can strengthen his position at the head of the ante-post market for next month's World Hurdle by winning this for the second year in succession. Duc De Regniere is closest to him on official ratings but it would be no surprise if the improving mare Sweetheart is among the action off her light weight.

Soft ground and 3 miles here - one of the Cheltenham hopefuls gets a run out. This looks a 3 horse race Market shows Kasbah at 5/6 - not quite 4/9, Duc now 2/1 in places and Hills of Aran 16/1 with one bookie

125 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 5/6 Double Act, 7/2 Bartica, 4/1 Whotsit, 12/1 Michelle, 16/1 Crown Affair.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: DOUBLE ACT isn't entirely straightforward but he has plenty of ability and is taken to concede weight all round on his first run for Evan Williams.

3 horse race here with 2 the place? Double act a neck and short head winner last twice

140 ASCOT
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Belcantista, 9/2 Dave´s Dream, 8/1 American Trilogy, 10/1 Dancing Tornado, Lough Derg, Onnix, 12/1 Chief Yeoman, Issaquah, Wingman, 14/1 Whiteoak, 16/1 Mamlook, Serabad, 25/1 My Turn Now, 40/1 Tender Falcon, 200/1 Petito.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Belcantista, denied a leading chance in last week's abandoned totesport Trophy at Newbury, will be a popular choice after his good second here in December, but he has no better chance than MAMLOOK on that running and the latter, a likely improver with the greater emphasis on stamina, appeals at longer odds. Serabad may be best of the others in an open race.[FC]

Mamlook now 12/1 in places ( I am writing 2 hours before I usually do so bear this in mind with these potential movers) Heavy ground and an open race

150 UTTOX
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Mceldowney, 6/1 Moonlight Music, 8/1 Poliglotti, 10/1 Villochely, Watch Out, 12/1 Bret Maverick, Gouranga, Silver Steel, 20/1 Thethirdoftheforth, 25/1 Port Erne, Silver Spruce, 33/1 Iris´s Flyer, Mapledurham, 50/1 Ricci De Mare, 66/1 Night Reveller, Pugnacity, 100/1 Layed Back Rocky, Spartan Encore.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: McELDOWNEY is the standout one on his run in an Ascot novice in November and he really shouldn't be too hard pressed to win a race like this. Moonlight Music, with her rider claiming 7lb, is preferred of the others.[EMW]

Villochely 7/1 and Gouranga 8/1 - not an eyepopping market move but this is a heavy ground seller

215 ASCOT
BETTING FORECAST: 5/6 Voy Por Ustedes, 5/2 Tamarinbleu, 7/2 Gwanako, 33/1 The Sawyer,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Tamarinbleu has shown he has the capacity to shock in the top grade but he probably needs VOY POR USTEDES to be below form if he is to cause another upset. Gwanako, although still on the upgrade, needs to take a big step forward to trouble his rivals

Interesting despite heavy ground because of the contenders. Tamarinbelu the one for money early diana doors

220 UTTOXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Naughty By Nature, 6/1 Mars Rock, 13/2 Bewery Man, Paradise Expected, 15/2 Pelo Du Bief, 9/1 Badly Bruised, 11/1 Quiny Boy, 12/1 Capal Dubh Alainn, 14/1 Darn Hot, Vicario, 16/1 It´s Rumoured, 20/1 Arthurian, Bamby, Magnifico, 25/1 Hever Road, Youluckyman, 40/1 Mustakhlas, 50/1 Seconditis.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A fair few to consider. It could be worth taking a chance on PARADISE EXPECTED, whose new stable are adept at having their runners ready first time. It is encouraging that she has run well over C&D too. Mars Rock and Naughty By Nature may be the pick of the opposition

Youluckyman currently showing at 16/1 in places

235 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 100/30 Scarab, 4/1 American Spin, 5/1 Horseshoe Reef, 7/1 Action Impact, 10/1 Cold Turkey, 12/1 Encircled, Sam Lord, War Of The Roses, 14/1 Aypeeyes, 16/1 Wild Desert, 20/1 Ameeq, 25/1 Weststern.

Ameeq showing 12/1 , 14/1 in places - need to see that kind of price near the off for consideration as a market mocer ( this stands with all early market movers )

240 WINCANTON
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Punjabi, 100/30 Songe, 6/1 Ashkazar, Takeroc, 9/1 Whiteoak, 11/1 Five Dream, 14/1 Ashley Brook, 20/1 Helens Vision, 100/1 Simply Blue.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Although connections would have much preferred better ground for him, PUNJABI may be able to get through on his class. Takeroc looks the best alternative

Ashkazar now 7/2

245 ASCOT
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Wendel, 7/4 Chariot Charger, 12/1 Dreamy Sweeney, 14/1 Doctor Pat, 16/1 Captain Americo, 25/1 Riddleofthesands, 33/1 Son Histoire, 100/1 Alldunnandusted.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Doctor Pat is clearly held in some regard and there should be better to come from Dreamy Sweeney, but it will probably pay to concentrate on the previous winners. Chariot Charger still has untapped reserves and is the proven stayer but WENDEL sets a very good standard and promises to stay

Dr Pat and Dream Sweeney both 8/1

255 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Tarablaze, 11/8 Massasoit, 8/1 Thetwincamdrift, 11/1 Jaunty Journey, 20/1 Brackenmoss, 33/1 Cresswell Willow.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Massasoit has the beating of these judged on official ratings but his credentials have a rather insubstantial look, especially now that he steps up in trip. In contrast, TARABLAZE (nap), another who is entered in the final of this series at Cheltenham, has shaped like one who will come into his own for tackling this stamina test

Soft ground over 3 miles - a long way ! Fav now odds on

305 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Folio, 4/1 Basra, 9/2 Risque Heights, 9/1 Mafeking, 10/1 Allanit, Alpes Maritimes, Mataram, 12/1 Man Of Gwent, 14/1 King Olav, 16/1 Andaman Sunset,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Several in-form sorts are on display, with BASRA just getting the vote ahead of Folio and Mafeking. The selection squeezed through to lead late on over C&D last time and should still be highly competitive with his 2lb rise.[PSm]

Mafeking is absent - will this affect the market? If not, then why is Man of Gwent currently 4/1?

310 WIN
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Charity Lane, 4/1 Midnight Chase, 9/2 Khachaturian, 6/1 Mendo, 10/1 Captain Americo, 12/1 Portland Bill, 14/1 Snake Charmer, 20/1 Ned Ludd.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: In terms of competitive handicaps, the novice CHARITY LANE has a good deal more to prove than some of these and he was workmanlike rather than impressive when 4-1 on last time, but he goes on the ground and the longer trip will help provide the conditions he needs to show significant improvement. Midnight Chase and Khachaturian look the chief dangers.[

Ned Ludd 16/1 and 14/1 in places - the straight 8 - heavy ground - big price

320 ASCOT
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Santia, 9/4 Pelican Point, 4/1 Silk Affair, 15/2 Theft, 8/1 Kahsabelle, 16/1 Allfortara, 40/1 Orana Conti, 66/1 Amouretta.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Donald McCain won this race with the up-and-coming Whiteoak here last year and he has another from a similar mould in Pelican Point, but this dual winner is likely to have difficulty conceding the weight to SANTIA.[FC]

YES I know it's heavy ground but there could be a probability race here - the straight 8 down to 7 with Silk affair a non runner. 2 clear outsiders at 66/1 should reduce the competitive field to just 5 -3 of whom (we need to check on BEtfair) will place. So of the remainder, they need to beat 2 to place.

This is a 2 miler so is not as troublesome in heavy ground. SAntia is Choc 'n'King and was originally favourite. Certainly the right jockey on board

330 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Wotashirtfull, 5/2 Caprio, 3/1 Artistic License.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: WOTASHIRTFULL looks like he will get things his own way and, if that is the case, will prove very tough to peg back.[GN]

3 horse race - 2 places? If so the fav looks a decent proposition - I suspect there might not be a place market here

330 UTTOX
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Take The Breeze, 3/1 Smoothly Does It, 9/2 Mohayer, 5/1 Make Haste, 11/2 Kings Quay, 16/1 Picot De Say, Share Option.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Mohayer is probably as near as it gets to a front-runner in this race and there's no guarantee this will be run at a decent pace. SMOOTHLY DOES IT handles bad ground really well though and may well follow up last year's win in the race, with Take The Breeze preferred of the others.[EMW]

Picot de Say now 10/1 and 12/1 in places BUT only 2 the place

340 WIN
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Tarateeno, 5/1 Classic Chic, Doctored, 11/2 Devil´s Creek, 6/1 Sweet Optomist, 7/1 Take A Mile, 9/1 Peacefull Waters, 20/1 Montana Gold, 25/1 Tavalu.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Very murky waters. Tarateeno is the one proven under these conditions and he has also been running creditably, but he has never won and would be vulnerable to an improver. Several have possibilities on that score, with SWEET OPTOMIST and Devil's Creek heading the list.[RA]

Montana Gold 14/1 and 12/1 in places

410 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Saints Bay, 9/2 Crystal B Good, 5/1 Quick Single, 8/1 Gingko Lady, 10/1 Brett Vale, Thoosa, 20/1 Global Village, Thumberlina, 25/1 Hilltop Legacy, 50/1 Lilleput.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Unless there's market confidence behind newcomer Crystal B Good, this looks a good opportunity for SAINTS BAY to open her account. It took time for the penny to drop on her debut over 7f and on breeding this shorter trip shouldn't be a problem.

The old countdown conundrum - why is a one time out maiden performer installed as a price gapper favourite? There are no market movers - 2 debutants ( one is the 2nd fav with Hayley " Head" Turner on board.
Saints BAy is in Guernsey by the wy - well worth a visit!

450 WIN
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Shamari, 7/2 In Vino, 5/1 Oddshoes, 20/1 High Carol, 33/1 You Can Of Course, 66/1 Skip The Present, 100/1 Hobb´s Dream, Play A Cord.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: In Vino and Oddshoes raised their games dramatically last time out but surely need to do so again if they are to upstage SHAMARI.[RA]

Another probability race? 3 horses under 20/1 and one shortie (whose a little bigger at 4/6 in the live market with 2nd fav at 5/2

Caution re heavy ground though

510 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Prince Charlemagne, 5/1 Carlton Scroop, 7/1 Al Azy, 15/2 Itsawindup, 8/1 Amwell Brave, 10/1 Japura, Shenandoah Girl, 14/1 Ashmolian, 20/1 Cape Of Luck, 33/1 Winning Show.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PRINCE CHARLEMAGNE runs here in preference to the first race and connections look to have chosen the right option with potential dangers thin on the ground. His record this way round tempers confidence somewhat, but he remains well handicapped and can get the better of Carlton Scroop.[GN]

A proper price gapper at last and no heavy ground

Price gap increased in live market - middle distance race my concern

720 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 La Diosa, 9/4 Herecomesbella, 7/2 Turn To Dreams, 7/1 Ed´s Pride, 25/1 Haafhds Delight, 66/1 Incy Wincy.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The weights give Herecomesbella a good chance of turning the placings round with LA DIOSA (nap) on their form over shorter here recently but the latter finally picked up well in the closing stages there and may be able to win again.[EMW]

Now odds on in places but some 9 hours+ til race time. 2 clear outsiders reduce competitive field from 6 to 4?

750 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Shaws Diamond, 13/8 Rose Cheval, 7/2 One Slick Chick, 50/1 Flying River, 66/1 Brave Optimist, 100/1 Mays Louise.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SHAWS DIAMOND looks to have been found a suitable opportunity and is preferred, though Rose Cheval is also interesting back from a layoff. One Slick Chick is best of the others.[EMW]

This is more like it - a 3 horse race with 2 the place - cues must be taken from the live market nearer the off. Fav remains as is with One Slick Chick potential mover into 2/1 and 15/8 in places

ONE A DAY PLACE ONLY

Heavy ground at 3 venues - soft ground at another venue, and the usual stuff on the all weather - so many races and so few place only opportunities!

SHORTLIST
120 HAYDOCK - soft ground and 3 miles not the ideal. Fav is strongly fancied ante post for the World Hurdle - he's got to have some talent
Currently 8/11 the fav ( not quite 4/9) , it is Duc De regniere at 9/4 who is the mover under McCoy (to be expected I suppose with a Saturday and a famous name)
1.31 and 1.57 to place and 2 the place
215 ASCOT - Class horses and Thornton onboard Voy Por Estedes at the head of the market. Tamatinbleu has been nibbled at and can we discount Ruby on Gwanko?
1.34 / 1.69 / 1.87 the places.
Ideal probability opportunity but who to chose? Voy has not tackled heavy ground over here -his worst ground has been soft
320 ASCOT - I explained earlier about the potential regarding a probability race here
Pelican Point 1.21
Santia 1.23
Personal preference for Santia under Robert thornton. BUT HEAVY FECKING GROUND AGAIN!
410 LING - Saints Bay
" Saints Bay, a half-sister to a couple of fair types, looked green in the early stages but got the hang of things inside the final 2f and flew home. If building on this, she should win something similar."
This was the last race - ran green but showed potential. Can we trust the horse to reproduce form on 2nd run EVER?
The martket thinks so. 1.2 to place in an illiquid market
POSITIVES? - NO heavy ground
450 WINCANTON - HEavy ground casts a cloud over this selection
Shamari 1.1
Il Vino 1.26
510 KEMP - a price gapper 1.4 to place (illiquid market) -price seems suspiciously high to me
750 WOLVES - pick your 1 from 3 to place and hope you've picked the right one! 3 horses sub 501/ here
Shaws diamond 1.21
One slick chick 1.51
Rose Cheval 2
Market extremely illiquid and these are not representative prices.
I would probabily side with the fav is backed here to place

ALTERNATIVES?
With heavy ground and soft ground niggling today, the footy offers a reasonable opportunity for a shortie instead.
Chelsea 2/5 away to Watford? 1.37
Lay Boro at home to West Ham at 5.6
Barcelona 1.59 away to BEtis - on current form must be backed until they lose
Fenerbahce v Hacettepe 1.21
Leicester v Swindon 1.43
Standard Liege v Tubize ( whipping boys!) - 1.21

From a horse racing perspective, Saints Bay looks the one purely because we can trust the ground not to be heavy.
There are probability races for those of stronger heart - even this race has a niggle as it's a one time out maiden who ran green last time

Football wise, it would be Standard Liege v Tubeke today for me at 1.21