135 NEWB
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Tasheba, 100/30 Forget It, 5/1 Silk Hall, 10/1 Astrodome, Ragamuffin Man, 12/1 Wild Desert, Yetholm, 14/1 Coeur De Fou, Narcisco, 20/1 Dantari, Rock Exhibition, 33/1 Border Owl, Valento, 66/1 Uncle Arther, 100/1 Opening Act, 150/1 Woody´s Dream.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Forget It sets a decent standard on his Sandown debut third but preference is for Triumph entry TASHEBA, who was a much better horse on the Flat and is sure to have been taught his job by his trainer who has a good record with juvenile hurdlers here. |
4 horses sub 12/1 1.68 / 1.59 / 1.9 to place the front 3
Ragamuffin Mn slight move into 7/1
145 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Key Regard, 3/1 Wray Castle, 6/1 Scandal, 8/1 Suhailah, 10/1 Filun, Trempari, 25/1 Tilly Shilling.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Wray Castle went with some promise on his Flat debut and is respected but KEY REGARD stayed on nicely once the penny dropped here on his debut and can put that experience to good use this time |
Key regard odds on now - 2 the place and a maiden horse who has only had one run 1.32 only 2 places
200 DON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Gold Award, 7/4 Calusa Crystal, 5/1 The Panama Kid, 10/1 Raider Of The East, 25/1 Bardolet, 33/1 Autumn Harvest, 66/1 Fenwick Sands, Noz, 100/1 Not Talking.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks between GOLD AWARD and Calusa Crystal and, although the latter has valuable hurdling experience and the advantage of a fairly recent run, preference is for the Henderson representative, who created a favourable impression in bumpers and looks a useful recruit to the hurdling ranks. |
Conditional jockeys the negative BUT 3 outsiders in a 9 runner race and 3 sub 20/1 make this interessting probability wise, but can we trust these conditionals? 1.19 / 1.24 /1.68 the front 3 to place
Gold award has been off for a year but Calusa Crystal has a recent run and recent win under his belt and would be the one I would side with
210 NEWB
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Michel Le Bon, 11/4 According To Dick, 5/1 Theophrastus, 10/1 Duke Of Miskin, Lord Ragnar, 11/1 Qianshan Leader, 12/1 Roman Conquest, 14/1 Sassanias, 16/1 Fiftyonefiftyone, 25/1 Pale Rider, 33/1 Back Exit, Bankstair, Lesmoir, 100/1 King Of Java, Moonlight Cantor, 150/1 Spiders Nephew, 200/1 Albert Park, Giollacca.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It would be unwise to overstate how well the form of his win has worked out through the second's subsequent form over longer trips but MICHEL LE BON is still a promising prospect and can make the most of the 4lb he receives from Cheltenham entry According To Dick, who is feared along with the promising Theophrastus |
4 under 25/1 in the live amrket , Michel steady at the head of the market, and According to Dick a Cheltenham entry 1.36 both the front 2 to place
215 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Itshim, 9/2 River Rye, 6/1 Imperial Skylight, 8/1 Give Us A Song, 12/1 Kamanja,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Little doubt that the progressive Itshim is miles ahead of his mark despite a penalty but he does have to prove his stamina for this trip, even at an easy track like this. He may well win but at the likely odds, it may be worth chancing RIVER RYE, who did well here in the week and can win off her current mark |
A horse I have history with - he won when flagged up as a 6/1 market mover and I place backed him next time. Near rival River Rye is a non runner - 4/6 in the live market - expected to bag the hatrick? Still 2 the place on betfair 1.25 to place
230 DON
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Sergheyev, 2/1 Noticeable, 3/1 Sparkling Montjeu, 12/1 Act Sirius, 14/1 Ericarrow, 33/1 Little Firecracker, 66/1 Gilded Youth, Paradigm Investor.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Sergheyev is the pick of these weights but he dropped out very quickly on his chase debut (after jumping well) and it's a bit of a concern that he's pitched into this company after a break. Sparkling Montjeu may be capable of better over hurdles but the one that appeals most is NOTICEABLE, who won a poor C&D seller with plenty in hand last time and he won't have to step up too much on that level to go close. |
3 only under 25/1 - 8 horse race - 3 the place BUT a claiming hurdle. 3 in contention if the market is accurate but which will place? 1.17 / 1.15 / 1.64 to place the front 3
240 NEWB
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Pepsyrock, 8/1 Farmer´s Lad, 9/1 Its Crucial, Kelrev, Sole Agent, 12/1 Rapide Plaisir, 16/1 High Oscar, Hope Road.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: If he's in the same mood as last week, PEPSYROCK (nap), who is 5lb ahead of the handicapper, should oblige again. Rapide Plaisir, who relishes a sound surface, could be the one to profit if the selection fails to deliver.[PJ] |
Now that's a price gap! BUT it's not as apparent in the live market with Farmers lad clipped in to 11/2 ( if sub 5/1 will be of interest)
The straight 8 again 1.25 to place
255 FAKENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 2/7 Forty Five, 6/1 Rockjumper, 9/1 Gunnadoit, 16/1 Diktatorship, 25/1 Magic Amigo, Mceldowney, 66/1 Prince Louis.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks a straightforward task for the progressive FORTY FIVE in his quest for a quickfire hat-trick. Rockjumper looks a distant second best and may be the one for the forecast. |
McCoy oon an odds on shot - massive price gap in live market BUT only 2 places so we have to be ultra confident 1.14 to place
330 FAKENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Gloucester, 7/4 Know The Law, 10/1 Chalice Welcome, 12/1 Galley Slave, 33/1 Bold Phoenix, Government, 66/1 Haughton Hope, Kingdom Of Heaven, Nothing Lost.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Gloucester's consistent form makes him the yardstick but he is vulnerable to an improver and may have to play second fiddle to newcomer KNOW THE LAW, who was a fair handicapper on the Flat. Chalice Welcome could go well if he translates his improved AW form to hurdles. |
2 under 14/1 and 3 under 33/1 -surely we concentrate on Gloucester and Know the Law - if only it were that simple! - one is a debutant in this maiden hurdle 1.12 and 1.16 the front 2 to place
420 NEWB
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Limerick Boy, 2/1 Distant Thunder, 13/2 Royal Hector, 20/1 Bob Justice, 25/1 Dennis The Legend, 66/1 Cape Verde Sal, Earth Moving, Jaoka Du Gord.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Royal Hector has a lot more on his plate than 12 months ago with LIMERICK BOY and Distant Thunder class acts from the past who should be capable of doing some damage in this sphere. Both will get maximum assistance from the saddle and it could be close. |
A 3 horse race? But bob and Dennis 16/1? Possible movers? 1.17 and 1.19 the front 2 to place
435 FAKE
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Cunning Clarets, 7/2 Gospel Spirit, 4/1 Good Faloue, 6/1 Conington, 8/1 Decent Lord, 10/1 Action Girl, 20/1 Ferula, 66/1 Late For Class, Whyte Avenue.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Conington, Gospel Spirit, Good Faloue and Action Girl all have a future, but this looks a good opportunity for CUNNING CLARETS to confirm the promise of her debut second at Newcastle. |
Bigger price gap in live market but this is a bumper 1.24
445 DON
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Fairyland, I´m Delilah, 5/1 Well Disguised, 6/1 Heavenly Chorus, 7/1 Moonlight Music, Overbranch, 10/1 Smarties Party.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: All of these have some sort of chance but nothing appeal more than I'M DELILAH (nap), who posted her best effort over hurdles at Musselburgh last time and is capable of going close from this mark on her handicap debut. Last year's winner Heavenly Chorus has conditions to suit and may be the biggest danger |
Smarties Party in to 6/1
455 NEWB
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Porta Vogie, 5/1 Low Delta, 7/1 Ashwell Lad, 8/1 Free To Air, Immense, World Shift, 10/1 Sawpit Sunset, 12/1 Montana Gold, 16/1 Hillridge, Lunar Rock, Particle, 25/1 Ben Ryan, Sovereign Spirit, Tinchel, 50/1 Indian Chase, Oscar Owen.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: FREE TO AIR could be the answer to an open finale, as he was not short of stamina during his Flat career and is well worth a try at this trip with conditions now less taxing. Porta Vogie and Sawpit Sunset are also expected to take a hand.[AWJ] |
Hillridge now 8/1
515 DON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Mail De Bievre, 5/2 Transact, 10/1 Barron Watlass, Cocoa Key, Kayf Commander, 33/1 Minstalad, Shes A Geeza, 66/1 Landofgreenginger.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Mail De Bievre created a good impression when successful in testing ground on his debut but it remains to be seen whether he's as good in these very different conditions. The market will be a good guide but at this stage he could be worth taking on with TRANSACT, whose dam won twice on the very quick Equitrack surface and he's from a yard that does really well in this type of race. [RY] |
BAron Watlass 7/1 -fav is Thornton/King but only one run and that was on different ground - another bmper 1.15 to place
920 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Co Dependent, 5/2 Green Dynasty, 5/1 Laminka, 20/1 Hypnotic Gaze, 25/1 Frightnight, 33/1 Burza, Petrenko, 66/1 Piccolo Express.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Unless Laminka is above average, this looks a good opportunity for CO DEPENDENT to get off the mark with Green Dynasty probably wanting further. |
Hypnotic gaze 12/1
irish flat boys return, ones to follow as with an article in WRWM - Weld (trainer) , Smullen (jockey) , Murtagh (jockey) , Aiden O'Brien (trainer) , Lordan (jockey) and Wachman(trainer)
I would back each way prices with these guys involved
ONE A DAY
200 DON - Calusa Crystal I would side with - Gold award off since 13 march 2008
210 NEWb - According to Dick and Michel Le bon - but which to chose? Will they both get placed in this 18 runner race
240 NEWB - Pepysrock looks good in a straight 8 race - 5 to beat to place and Barry Geraghty on board. Needs to replicate 6 length win last time out
255 FAK - Forty Five the obvious candidate of the day, BUT in a 2 the place race
330 FAKENHAM - BEtween Know the law and Gloucester - the former a hurdling debutant BUT under AP McCioy - the latter hugely experienced in this discipline and priced to be very competitive - tricky choice - both priced exactly the same in the win market - 5 horses at 33/1 or bigger/
420 NEWB - Limerick Boy and Distant thuinder - preference for former under same jockey who won on him
CONCLUSION - Forty Five under McCoy is ok for me at 1.14 BUT only 2 places BUT McCoy on a 2/7 shot!
Other races look 2 horse affairs, and we need to be sure the one we pick is the one who will place! Lots of bigger prices on offer for those willing to take sides and decide on one over the other
No comments:
Post a Comment