Tuesday 17 February 2009

17/2

No blog today I'm afraid - all nighter writing next newsletter! Only for the boss to tell me I'm a week early. -D'oh!
Still no excuses on your part not to flex your brains and make selections yourself. As I told one reader, this is not a tipping service, I don't get paid for this, it takes an hour or more daily for me to do, and I am under no obligation to even write this blog at all.
So the ideal is for you to D.I.Y!
Quick precis
250 Taunton
probability race here
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Ronaldo Des Mottes, 15/8 Nictory Vote, 6/1 Summery Justice, 8/1 Sir Kezbaah, 14/1 Aboukir Bay, 20/1 Well Done You, 25/1 Good Man Jack, 33/1 Missinlucan, My Friend Sandy, 100/1 Beyond Moonbeams, Elsie May, Trigger Tease.

5 under 14/1 - race already finished

300 sthl
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 West End Rocker, 5/2 Shining Gale, 5/1 Radetsky March, 6/1 Best Actor, 8/1 Itsa Legend, Valley Ride.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Shining Gale, unbeaten in two completed starts over fences, has to enter calculations dropped back in grade but WEST END ROCKER (nap), who receives 10lb, comes here fresh after his somewhat novicey display at Cheltenham and looks worth another chance to show himself capable of better in this sphere

shining gale market mover - 2 under 12/1!¬ 1.4 to palce

330 shtl
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Valleyofthedolls, 3/1 Barton Grey, 9/2 Tara Taylor, 13/2 Carolina Lady, 14/1 Bosamcliff, 25/1 And Whatever Else, Pistol At Dawn, 33/1 Crow Spinney, Millbury, 40/1 Patchoulie Conti, 50/1 Coverdale Girl.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A few of these may prove capable of better still, perhaps none more so than VALLEYOFTHEDOLLS who is related to decent jumpers Theatre Girl and Ring The Boss. Barton Grey, Tara Taylor and Carolina Lady are the only other runners with realistic appeal.[SB]

Thornton/King on fav - 4 under 14/1 - probability race? 1.24

340 wolves
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Blacktoft, Sabre Light, 3/1 New Star, 8/1 Flying Applause, 14/1 Alexander Guru, 16/1 Wahoo Sam, 20/1 Siryena.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There isn't very much between the three main form horses on paper. Sabre Light has an impressive strike-rate at this level, while New Star's handicap form has to be respected, but the narrow verdict goes to BLACKTOFT who has scored twice this month already and shouldn't have taken too much out of himself at Lingfield last week.[SB]

only 2 the place and a seemingly 3 horse race - Blacktoft a placer for me recently, but it is tight at the head - 2 in 3 chance of succcess if discounting the outsiders

420 tauntoon
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Limerick Boy, 13/2 Even More, 10/1 Back Nine, 14/1 Dutch Bill, Lindsay, Lord Of Illusion, Teeming Rain, 20/1 Nino Conti, 33/1 Thirtytwo Red, 50/1 Garston Star, General Blackthorn.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It was a better race than this in which LIMERICK BOY won pretty much as he liked at Bangor and it will be disappointing should he not follow up. Even More is the danger on one of his favourite hunting grounds

limerick boy non runner - even more the only one under 10/1 , but this is 2 mile 7 hunter chase


430 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Minella Theatre, The Hollinwell, 4/1 Patton, 13/2 Traffic Control, 12/1 Mansolias, 14/1 Fighting Chance, Sharadiyn, 16/1 Quick Fix, 25/1 Alfloramoor, Murphys Beau, 33/1 Finbin, 50/1 Work Boy, 66/1 The Client, 100/1 Ethel Briggs.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not a massive amount between the three main form horses on paper. MINELLA THEATRE, with Tony McCoy on board for the first time, has shown steady improvement over hurdles and gets the narrow verdict over The Hollinwell. Patton and Traffic Control are others with appeal.[SB]

4 horses under 33/1` in the live market
both market leaders 7/4 1.35 / 1.4
McCoy on fav worth siding with?

OTHERS

Aberdeen v East fife at 1.22 this evening probably my selection today - too many long distance races over soft ground
Blog really for my records today - 250 taunton perhaps best opportunity now gone

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