MARKET MOVERS - Greenbelt elite 3rd 2/1,Chord 5th 9/1 ,Le Brocquay 2nd 5/1 (really should have won by all accounts!) , Double intrude 4th 11/2 , Mochua unplaced 16/1 , LAdy Dunhill unplaced 15/2 , Joy rider and Present m Lord unplaced 7/2 and 11/4 , 3 in 420 Muss Ormus 1st 11/1 other 2 unplaced 6/1 and 15/2 , Eforetta 5th 9/2 ,
Interesting how many shortlisters won yesterday! -6 winners
Market movers -sub 5/1 - 3rd , unplaced 7/2 and 11/4 , 5th 9/2 so not a good day for these. One winner 11/1
ONE A DAY horses placed -Red Maloney and According to Dick. Luckily before Tartan Gunner's race for the one a day compounding. Tartan Gunner just goes to show that there is never a sure thing EVER! In a 3 horse race, the fecker finished 3rd but at the 920 - last race on a Friday night, my job was done earlier
130 KEMP
Honest john 8/1 bf into 4/1 7/2 in places
140 CHEP
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Jokers Legacy, 3/1 Cypress Grove, 100/30 Hey Big Spender, 5/1 Pliny, 10/1 Dais Return, 14/1 King Stanley, 16/1 C´Monthehammers, 20/1 Creagh Bay, Mrs Fawlty, 50/1 A Bid Too Far, Enchanted Approach, Makin A Fuss, Pharaon De Touzaine, 100/1 Back To Reality, Peppin´s Gold, Throwaround.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Just a handful merit serious consideration and the pick of them is HEY BIG SPENDER, who was third in a warm event at Taunton last time and, as a half-brother to Midlands National winner Miss Orchestra, you would think he can only benefit for today's sterner test of stamina. Cypress Grove and Jokers Legacy are good enough to make things interesting, while Pliny also enters the picture having won his bumper with so much authority.[AWJ] |
MAiden hurdle so caution. BUT only 4 under 14/1 with one at 14/1 and the rest 40/1 or bigger so best to concentrate on the front 3 or 4 here 1.54 , 1.81 , 1.55 2.3 places for the first 4 in the betting forecast. market not formed
150 NEWC
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Daldini, Silver By Nature, 5/1 Edmo Yewkay, 11/2 Jack The Blaster, Silver Sedge, 7/1 Corlande, 10/1 Crozan, 14/1 Pasagai, 25/1 Crackadee.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: An open race in which there isn't much between Daldini, Edmo Yewkay, Corlande and Silver Sedge on a recent Wetherby run. However, a chance is taken with CROZAN, who isn't the force of old and is a bit of an iffy jumper but is back on a fair mark, has shown he retains ability for this yard and this represents his easiest assignment for some time. [RY] |
200 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Mellow Mixture, 9/4 Leo The Lion, 5/2 Red Suede Shoes, 33/1 Spirit Of The Glen, Suhailah, Urban Space, 50/1 First Spirit.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A three-horse race on paper and this looks a good opportunity for MELLOW MIXTURE, who has finished second in three previous starts here in 1m-1m2f maidens, to get off the mark.[FC] |
A 3 horse race? 2 the place Lucky dip time really, just hope the one you chose finishes in the front 2 for placers. Red Suade shoes is now sharing favouritism
1.42 / 2 / 1.62 to place - again market not formed
205 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Ainama, 4/1 Alfie Flits, Dee Ee Williams, 6/1 Conflictofinterest, 7/1 Trenchant, 20/1 Alarazi, 40/1 Rock ´N´ Roller, 66/1 Russian Epic.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: AINAMA's form is not up with that of Alfie Flits or Dee Ee Williams but he could not have done the job much better on his hurdling debut at this track and can maintain his lofty place in the Supreme Novices' betting by winning again. Conflictofinterest's participation for Paul Nicholls catches the eye.[RA] |
2 at 66/1 or bigger - 8 runners - fav now abcked into odds on - McCoy on board 1.16 to place
310 CHEP
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Phardessa will be all the rage on these terms but it wasn't that strong a race she won at Uttoxeter and TAMBOURINE RIDGE is not without hope of springing a surprise, given the promise she showed during a brief career over hurdles. A subsequent absence suggests all might not have been well on her chasing debut in December.[AWJ] |
Now odds on - 33/1 outsider - 3 horses for 2 palces 1.21 / 1.54 / 2.6 to place
HEAVY AT NEWCASTLE so no bets there
415 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Pop Ahead, 5/1 Randwick Roar, 11/2 Le Burf, 13/2 Soulard, 15/2 The Hairy Lemon, 9/1 Nemetan, 11/1 Ice Bucket, 12/1 Kew Jumper, 20/1 Launde.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Plenty of these have a doubt about them in terms of current form but that certainly doesn't apply to hat-trick seeking POP AHEAD (nap), who won with plenty in hand over C&D last time and is possibly still open to improvement. Last year's second Randwick Roar is readily preferred as the best alternative. [MCu] |
Price gapper - Le Burf has tightened the price gap in the live market 1.62 to place
450 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Bellvano, 13/8 King´s Legacy, 8/1 Ballybach, 20/1 Quapriland, Rigadin De Beauchene, Super Villan, 25/1 Cyder With Rosie, 50/1 La Patrona.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A smaller field than usual and, with neither of the two newcomers making any great appeal on paper, this looks between KING'S LEGACY and Musselburgh debut winner Bellvano. In receipt of weight from his rival and with his Wincanton conqueror having upheld the form when fourth at Ascot last weekend, King's Legacy is narrowly preferred. [MCu] |
2 runner race - straight 8 - 3 places - 3 horses at 50/1 or bigger - 1 at 33/1 and 1 at 25/1 Ballybach the potential spoiler 1.19 / 1.14 - preference in place market for 2nd fav but this is 1045am so bear that in mind
ONE A DAY
market mover looks worth fosuccing just on Pasagai in the 150 Newc BUT heavy ground ( is that why the horse is backed though?) 130 Kemp -Honest John but only 4 point move in a big field (rule of thumb - like to see at least the price move equivalent to half the field
A tricky day with top loaded markets where it looks a 2 horse race or a 3 horse race. The concern is selecting the right one as rarely it'll finish 1-2 or 1-2-3 the top 2 or top 3 in the markets.
1.62 for Red Suede shoes is certainly appealing if we can trust the apparent confidence in the early market. As said previously, anything over or anround 1.5 is to be treated with suspicion though. A risk could be taken given the profile of the race as an apparent 3 horse race and 2 places
Ainama at 1.16 has a supreme novices entry and 2 to beat to place if we can discount the outsiders
Kings legacy at 1.14 is the other apparently with only 1 really to beat in the win market.
The latter looks safest to me in one of those niggly top heavy races I referred to earlier.
Today might be a day for the footy to be honest to get the compounding target
So I go to www.ladbrokes.com and note all ultra shorties
| 13:00 | Trabzonspor vs Denizlispor | 1/4 - 2nd against 16th - 1-0 win away from home last time they met - away team has lost 9 and drawn 1 away from home |
| 14:30 | Bayern Munich vs Cologne | 2/7 - 6 wins, 2 draws 1 defeat at home - won 3-0 away to Cologne last time - 4th against 11th - Koln have drawn their last 3 games |
| 15:00 | Bangor vs Linfield | 7/1 | 7/2 | 2/7 - don't know enough so no bet |
| 15:00 | Rangers vs Kilmarnock | 2/9 | 5/1 | 12/1 - only 1 loss to Celtic at home - drawn once - H2H - 2-1 and 4-0 - Killy have drawn last 2 and won 2 b4 that away so could be a tricky assignment for Favs? |
| 15:00 | Peterhead vs Stranraer | 1/3 - don't know enough no bet |
| 17:00 | Panathinaikos vs Panionios | 1/3 - they either score 3 or draw! H2H 2-1 - Panionis lost 3 drawn 1 of last 4 away to opposition weaker than Panathan |
then it's off to www.soccerstats.com to check the teams recent performances and head to heads
From the above, Heerenveen seem to stand out if I was taking the footy option. Will the Bank of Barca be open for business for usual Saturday investors. I expect so and would trade after Barca score first cos Espanyol have drawn a lot recently away
Man Utd should win again at home but many 1-0's make it unnerving and they will, I think, trade bigger in running? Should win though but might be made to wait
Plenty of footy opps for the one a day for me today at least as the horses are unappealing generally in a busy satuday. Kings Legacy looks the best profile at the moment
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