Saturday 30 August 2008

31/8

Good day yesterday with a winner from my single selection and the other price gappers actually placing too.
Again selectivity is the key watchword here
315 CURRAGH
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Finsceal Beo, 6/1 Beach Bunny, Deauville Vision, 8/1 Magic Carpet, Mystical Lady, 12/1 Crossing, 14/1 Glowing, 16/1 Varsity, 33/1 End Of The Affair.
I don't venture into Ireland for price gappers and with good reason - they get turned over more often than not and some don't even place.
Finscael beo, though, is a horse of some note, BUT in listed races, all horses on show are top quality and we have soft ground to contend with too

210 FOLK
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Frank Street, 3/1 Peper Harow, 5/1 Smokey Ryder, 10/1 Blackwater Fort, Itshim, 16/1 Place The Duchess, 20/1 Jiggalong, 25/1 Itsher, 33/1 Rapanui Belle, Silver Salsa, 66/1 Flamboyant Red.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: FRANK STREET (nap), who built on a promising debut when one of three to come away at Salisbury, won't mind the return to 5f and is taken to progress past Peper Harow from a handy draw

A potential 3 horse race which should augur well for Frank Street to place until we learn its a 5 furlong maiden for 2 year olds - but the horse has progressive form of 32

440
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Perception, 5/1 Damini, 8/1 Rebounding, 10/1 Money Money Money, Silver Games, Spinning Belle, 12/1 Age Of Couture, Chic Retreat, 20/1 Dicey Affair, Golden Games, Hosanna, 50/1 Micro Chip, My Les.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PERCEPTION's form had yet another advertisement on Friday and she looks capable of opening her account. Damini is likely to prove better than she showed on her debut and may pose most problems

Price gap here but maiden fillies event and big field, 3 debutants and 7 one time outers open to improvement - live betting market key here

320 MUSS
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Kyber, 5/2 Danzatrice, Nero West, 10/1 Flamed Amazement, 14/1 Shankly Bond, 20/1 Pegasus Mondrianus, 50/1 Ceduna Roadhouse,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Top weight Nero West could be dangerous if allowed an uncontested lead, but preference is for course specialist KYBER (nap) who has scored six of his seven career wins here (one over hurdles) and is in fine heart this yea
Not really a price gap nbut a potential 3 horse race here -with Aleatrics a doubt this may leave only 2 to place which makes things tricky

350
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Predict, 5/1 Pressed For Time, 7/1 Compton Ford, 10/1 Chicken Momo, 16/1 El Bobby, 33/1 Wee Bizzom, 50/1 Future Gem,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PREDICT hasn't shown much in two nurseries but her maiden form is well in advance of anything her rivals have shown and she looks to have been found an ideal opportunity to record a second success.

A 2 year old seller here -

200 NA
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Phoenix Des Mottes, 5/1 Isle Of Inishmore, 11/2 Winning Show, 13/2 Boxhall, 9/1 Nomad, 12/1 Joy In The Guild, The Randy Bishop, 14/1 Lets Cast Again, 16/1 Daramoon, 50/1 Bleu Reef, 66/1 Three Half Crowns.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: David Pipe won this race in 2007 with an ex-French recruit and, with none of the experienced runners particularly standing out, PHOENIX DES MOTTES could well make a successful British debut, especially if the market speaks in his favour. Isle Of Inishmore may prove best of the remainder

Conditional jockeys maiden hurdle - YIKES!

430 NA
BETTING FORECAST: Evs For One Night Only, 7/2 Lancer Scott, 9/2 Sergheyev, 14/1 Mister Wiseman, 16/1 Brigadore, 20/1 Clever Liz, Pittyless, 25/1 Exit To Side, 33/1 Chunky´s Choice,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Despite having not managed to improve on his debut form in two outings since, FOR ONE NIGHT ONLY basically has more potential than most of these and he shaped reasonably well on his first start over hurdles. Lancer Scott is an interesting newcomer to hurdling, while the market may prove a useful guide in assessing the well-being of Sergheyev.
Conditional jockeys maiden hurdle - YIKES!

Again plenty of perceived price gappers and I want to keep the near 100% record going with my strong selections
Nothing appeals at all with niggles in one area or the other.320 MUSS - I would consider backing the market leader in the live market to place -it may not be the betting forecast fav. I would also like to see no shorteining amongst the other horses which may signify a potential gamble
If desparate, perhaps Predict could get in the placings given we can hopefully discount the 2 ( stretching to 3) outsiders leaving the horse potentially 3 to contest a place

30/8

Time control won after a stewards enquiry but a win's a win! Nightjar 2nd at 9/4, and BAzergan won at 8/1 (the number of days off must have put punters off!)- the bar steward! Buddhist Monk - I was right to be wary of newcomers here but he wasn't beaten by the obvious one

435 CHESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Full Toss, 3/1 Cosmic Sun, 4/1 Layer Cake, 7/1 The Kyllachy Kid, 12/1 Aladdin´s Lamp, 33/1 Nut Hand, 40/1 Bounty Reef, 100/1 Piccolo Express.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Cosmic Sun - holds The Kyllachy Kid on latest running - is overdue a change of luck but he may well come off second best for the fourth time with FULL TOSS having probably the better form and being the more likely of the pair to improve
First 2 in the market have had a string of seconds in this maiden which augurs well for place only backing.
Full toss is the obvious candidate

700 MR
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Shore Thing, 3/1 Bethanys Boy, Simba Sun, 14/1 Parkview Love, 50/1 Crosby Jemma, Feeling Peckish, Government, 100/1 Hallys Goal.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SHORE THING appears to be over the problems that held him back last season and his recent hurdling form sets the standard here.

Hurdles event - obstacles to overcome - reasonable price gap bt looks a 3 horse race here which is a good thing I suppose if entertaining the place on Shore thing

300 NA
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Supreme Being, 4/1 Anticipating, 7/1 Jacaranda, 8/1 Lesdream, 12/1 Caretta Caretta, Disco Queen, 14/1 Chunky Lad, Heir To Be, Orchard Glow, 20/1 Shanahan, 50/1 Oxybau, 100/1 Rules Apply.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Anticipating looks clear best of the home-trained runners but he's not the most resolute and it can pay to pass him over in favour of Irish raider SUPREME BEING, who has fairly useful form and has plenty more in his favour, not least the assistance of Tony McCoy
Selling hurdle here does not fill me with confidence - why are they running in sellers? ....

405
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Dark Energy, 5/1 Strong Survivor, 8/1 Party Palace, Ryedale Ovation, 16/1 Bond Cruz, 20/1 Raise Again, 25/1 Keyneema.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: DARK ENERGY hardly broke sweat in cruising home at Huntingdon in the week and, with John Kington's claim going a long way to counterbalancing the penalty, he looks a good thing to go in again.[

Novice handicap hurdle with a claimer on board the favourite - eye catching price gap though BUT only 2 to place in this sub 8 runner event leaves no margin for error for place backers

440
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Yellow Flag, 5/1 Spiritual Society, 6/1 Star Of Germany, 7/1 Blandings Castle, 8/1 Et Maintenant, 10/1 Cheeky Lad, 14/1 Smoke Trail, 16/1 Rooster´s Reunion, Wild Power, 33/1 Kova Hall.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Yellow Flag could be a vulnerable favourite off his revised mark and there are some appealing alternatives. Smoke Trail hinted at a return to form last time and is back on the right ground but also interesting after a break is course specialist BLANDINGS CASTLE (nap), who has run many of his better races when fresh


Another handicap and a good price gap ( drifted in live market though but so did that 8/1 winner yesterday!) Has won 3 on the trot so unlikely (from a sequence perspective) to win again. Place material? I don't know if the added weight may catch him out

510
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 He´s The Gaffer, 4/1 Bandearg, 5/1 My Skipper, 10/1 Even Flo, 12/1 Gunnabelil, 14/1 Three Lions, 16/1 Cornish Flame, Lets Get Busy, Palace Walk, 20/1 Rich Nomad, 33/1 Bobsleigh, 50/1 Wee Danny, 66/1 Dunbell Boy, Zuleta.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: He's The Gaffer is a handicap snip on his recent chasing exploits but he has been a costly failure in the past over hurdles when seemingly thrown in and is taken on with BANDEARG, who shapes as though the longer trip could be in her favour.

A handicap with another who has woin last twice and now 3 miles 3 furlongs over obstacles - surely there'll be better alternatives?

210 RIPON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Prime Mood, 4/1 Paddythefish, 9/2 Holberg, 8/1 Bajan Tryst, 10/1 Mary Mason, 14/1 Arteus, Royal Salsa, 16/1 Shaker Style, Tee Gee Cee, 25/1 Sampower Quin, 50/1 Embsay Crag, Eyesore, Lady Zena, 100/1 Venetian Lady.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Unless there's a wave of confidence behind any of the newcomers this looks best left to PRIME MOOD, who remains a colt with potential despite his shock failure at Musselburgh

7 newcomers here in this maiden who , as in Buddhist Monk's race, we simply don't know how they will perform

Plenty of potential and perceived price gappers here, but I think a bit of weeding out is necessary
Full toss would be the selection today for place only purposes - everything else has obstacles to overcome or appear in races where there are niggles













3

Friday 29 August 2008

29/8

Bold account won, Happy anniversary won, Liberally won and Cat Patrol won

Keeps the run going but place returns are obviously shorter - d'oh! Just my luck - they all win!

220 CHESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Time Control, 4/1 Hamalka, 6/1 Tamdiid, 10/1 Ghizlaan, 14/1 Chatanoogachoochoo, 33/1 Fleetwood Flame.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Connections will be very keen to get a win out of the beautifully bred TIME CONTROL and she looks the one to beat. Her Nottingham second reads well here and the combination of 1m4f and testing ground seemed to tax her stamina last time. Tamdiid could be the one to chase her home.[

Now 1/3 - augurs well but not to place rather to win at those odds.

Negative - maiden fillies stakes race - YIKES!

440
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Nightjar, 4/1 Never Ending Tale, Prince Kalamoun, 8/1 Porthole, 10/1 Navajo Joe, 14/1 Grey Command, 16/1 Dauberval, Sweet Sara, 25/1 Bigfanofthat.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Nightjar has to be respected off this mark following his improved effort last time but he isn't certain to stay this far and NEVER ENDING TALE, who will relish the return to this trip, gets the nod

Nightjar - like Liberally is ahead of the handicapper - 2 seconds

NEGATIVE - untried at the trip - "stamina has to be taken on trust" Also Never ending tale and Prince Kalamoun are quite close in the betting

340 HAMILTON
BETTING FORECAST: 1/3 Buddhist Monk, 7/2 Gargano, 10/1 Ozone Trustee, 20/1 Kings Maiden, 33/1 Oscar Wild, 50/1 Scanno.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BUDDHIST MONK sets a clear standard and should be very hard to beat. The Mark Johnston-trained newcomer Gargano could be the main danger and is the one to note in the market

Should win at that price shouldn't he. BUT Gargano is a newcomer installed as 2nd favourite - this may be very significant and we have good to soft ground - which again might turn soft as the day progresses

640 SALISBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Bazergan, 7/2 Star Rocker, 9/2 Wellington Square, 13/2 Special Reserve, 12/1 Streets Apart, 14/1 Watercolours, 16/1 Tignello, 20/1 Chioroscuro, Quick Flash, 33/1 Colour Trooper.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Bazergan was quite highly tried on a couple of occasions last term and it remains to be seen if he confirms what he appeared to show at Newmarket. He probably wouldn't need to reproduce that form here, but STAR ROCKER, from a family that the Oppenheimers have enjoyed plenty of success with, is an interesting alternative having shaped really well on his Doncaster debu

312 days off - not for me for Bazergan

850 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Long Distance, 3/1 Scary Movie, Street Crime, 16/1 John Potts, 33/1 Alltheclews, 50/1 Royal Flyer, Spoilt Madame, 100/1 Clare Park.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: LONG DISTANCE ought to be up to winning at this level, even if not fully tuned up for this belated return. Scary Movie appeals for the forecas

315 days off and a 3 horse race - 8 runner race - preference would be to place back whichever of Scary Movie or Street Crime are better backed

Time control for me is the one solid one - Long distance has 2 very close market rivals and 315 days off - Bazergan 312 days off - Buddhist monk has Gargano to worry about ( and as a newcomer he may surprise ) and Nightjar has a concern over the ground






Thursday 28 August 2008

28/8

210 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Bold Account, 5/1 Imperial Skylight, 8/1 Wee Bizzom, 12/1 Bella´s Story, Port Ronan, 25/1 Royal Premium.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It is difficult to get away from BOLD ACCOUNT who is a few steps ahead of the handicapper. Wee Bizzom could be the one for the forecast

Only problem here for a place perspective is soft ground and sub 8 runner field with only 2 to place in this class 6 nursery

310
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Happy Anniversary, 9/2 Liberty Trail, 5/1 Dean Iarracht, 8/1 Distinctive Spirit, 10/1 Jatman, Ursula, 12/1 Rising Kheleyf, 25/1 Grissom.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: HAPPY ANNIVERSARY has the best form on offer and still holds an entry in the Fillies' Mile, so it will be disappointing if she cannot open her account receiving weight from all her rivals. Dean Iarracht should be thereabouts once more while Distinctive Spirit looks the pick of the newcomers

Plenty of place form for the fav ( had him last time) - soft ground again and no early market to test the confidence behind this fav

250 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Liberally, 11/2 Houri, 13/2 Seventh Hill, 7/1 Ballora, 8/1 Flam, 10/1 Politeia, 12/1 Harting Hill, Stage Acclaim, 16/1 Drum Major, 20/1 Title Role, 25/1 Clovis, Desert Thistle, 33/1 Eseej.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Speciosa's half-sister LIBERALLY (nap) looked a filly going places when successful at Bath last time and she can defy a penalty at the expense of Houri and Politeia.

"well in" says Spotlight and currently 7/4 in the live market

420
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Cat Patrol, 4/1 Chasing Amy, 7/1 Fortunate Bid, 10/1 Indian Tonic, 12/1 Kutanga, 16/1 Strike Command, 20/1 Clerk´s Choice, 25/1 Piccolinda, 33/1 May Need A Spell, 50/1 Baby Josr, 100/1 Igotim,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Probably the weaker division and a race which looks well within the reach of CAT PATROL, who should be helped by the step up to 6f. Chasing Amy may well prove the one to beat.

6 of the 12 are debutants - fav has had 3 runs so has experience

I am always wary about selections on soft ground but for me HAppy Anniversary and Liberally to place


Wednesday 27 August 2008

27/8

2 from 2 yesterday and a (relatively ) big price for the place only on the selection - near 1.4! (whoopy!)

AYR - good to soft - may become soft as the day progresses

No price gappers there

320 CATTERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Let It Be, 5/1 Mcqueen, Silver Seeker, 8/1 Mr Crystal, 10/1 Abstract Folly, Dechiper, 12/1 Depraux, 16/1 Court Of Appeal, Wulimaster, 20/1 Boxhall, 25/1 Matinee Idol, 33/1 Rare Ruby .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: LET IT BE, with only two wins per season previously, has already won three times this year and, having hit a rich vein of form, she could well complete a four-timer given it's very hard to pick any holes in her. Mr Crystal and Silver Seeker are the likeliest dangers, assuming McQueen doesn't translate his recent improvement over hurdles back to the Flat

Marginal price gap but of interest is the fact the horse is on a 4 timer - watch out for the market which will tell you if the winning run is expected to continue or end (drift in price) Personally a no play for me and preference for the lay if at a reasonably short price

Very quiet day with no selections from a price gapper perspective

Footy on tonight at http://soccerbettingmoneymaker.blogspot.com/

Tuesday 26 August 2008

26/8

As to being a sorry bunch yesterday - well they all gave their running bar Eton Fables
Eton Fable who almost made all at Chester four days earlier, was denied the lead this time and endured a far from clear run. Trapped on the rail from half a mile out, he stayed on well once eventually switched into the clear, but it was all too late. He ran better than his finishing position suggests.

400 GREAT LEIGHS
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Hilbre Court, 7/2 Rankayo Hitam, 6/1 Sistos Fascination, 13/2 Hasty Lady, 9/1 The Hoofer, 12/1 Micheals Boy, 16/1 Diktat Tempo, 25/1 Royal Tartan, 33/1 Alabjar, 40/1 Harlequinn Danseur .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: HILBRE COURT (nap) comes out with the best chance on adjusted BHA ratings despite conceding weight all round and he can confirm earlier Lingfield form with Rankayo Hitam

A claimer here not the ideal race type - Fav is 4/5 at present which augurs well

315 RIPON
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Rose Street, 13/2 Suits Me, 7/1 Granston, Kingsdale Orion, 10/1 Eglevski, 12/1 Magic Echo, Motafarred, 14/1 Veiled Applause, 16/1 Harvest Warrior, 20/1 Charlie Tokyo, Intersky Charm, 33/1 Turfshuffle .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ROSE STREET went into many notebooks on her reappearance and back on turf and up in trip, she can take care of a competitive if largely exposed field. Suits Me might be the one to chase her home

Progressive form and a noticeable price gap - negatives - 3 year old handicap

Softer ground today is a negative

Probably just Rose street for me today - confirmation via the live market incase there is a drift, as was the case with Eton Fables in the place market.

Monday 25 August 2008

25/8

BAnk holiday today after a great day on Saturday

220 Cartmel
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Maidstone Mixture, 9/2 Rivington Pike, 11/2 Galley Slave, 9/1 Ras Laffan, 12/1 Bulas Boy, Harrison´s Star, 16/1 White Ross, 20/1 Saafend Geezer, 50/1 Abbey Express .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Maidstone Mixture sets the standard but it isn't a particularly demanding one under his penalty, so it may be worth taking a flyer on something coming out of the pack to beat him. The tentative suggestion is newcomer RIVINGTON PIKE, who showed some ability on his penultimate Flat start and whose good stable do well with their hurdlers

A reasonable chance of this price gapper placing, but it is over obstacles so not top of the list

230 HUNT
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Nayodabayo, 6/1 Comeintothespace, 10/1 Lady Romanov, 14/1 River Tigris, 20/1 Prince Of Aragon, Seattle Spy, 25/1 Only Hope, Trackattack, 33/1 Arctic Emperor, Galley Law, 50/1 Billy The Shifter .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This will take no winning at all and there's very little temptation to see past NAYODABAYO, who stands out on the figures and should run his race with both trip and ground just right.

Conditional jockeys selling hurdle - YIKES - 4/11 now for the favourite with the defection of the 2nd favourite. An ideal each way race really but from a place only perspective odds will be very cramped and we don't have professional jockeys on board

340
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Levera, 7/2 Silivri, 4/1 Pride Of Mine, 10/1 Putra Laju, 14/1 Mystic Storm, 20/1 Shahnameh, 33/1 Road To Recovery, 50/1 Ben Bacchus, 100/1 Crazy Bold, Malibu, Muraco, 200/1 Enlist .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Alan King has come to the right venue to test LEVERA's stamina for hurdling and his class should count if seeing it out. Each-way thieves will doubtless be focusing on Pride Of Mine and Silivri.

I never back odds on shots in maiden hurdles - there are countless examples of them getting turned over so not a proposition for me despite the price gap.

415 RIPON
BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 Taaresh, 6/1 Cozy Tiger, 10/1 Drumadoon Bay, 14/1 Arikinui, 16/1 Top Tribute, 20/1 Proficiency, 33/1 Dolly Royal, 66/1 Fell Pack, Lachafinna, 100/1 Amaretto Venture, Miss Ferney, Predictable .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With Cozy Tiger having plenty to prove on this turf debut after his inauspicious return back in May, TAARESH is likely to prove very hard to beat with his debut Sandown second last month a very long way ahead of what anything else has achieved in this field

4/11 fav based on a single run in a maiden race

520
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Eton Fable, 5/2 Devinius, 7/1 Soggy Dollar, 8/1 Shaylee, 10/1 Joinedupwriting, 16/1 Manuka Bee, 25/1 Mill Beattie, Plenilune, 33/1 Doctor Delta, 66/1 Riorun .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A good opportunity for ETON FABLE (nap) to gain compensation for Thursday's agonising last-stride defeat at Chester. Devinius, who has to prove her stamina but got off the mark last time, and Soggy Dollar look the pick of the opposition

Progressive form for the fav and good place only material? BUT close proximity of Devinius

SOFT at Warwick.
All in all a sorry bunch today and perhaps Eton Fable is the one with lesser concerns - we have conditional jockeys sellers, and maiden hurdles and 4/11 1 time run only maidens ! YIKES