Tuesday, 5 August 2008

5/8

Destiny's Dream beaten but Howards hope came nowhere - speculative at 12/1+

Zelos Girl won at 1.5 - no problem liability wise
Great day for Irish COmbos - 3 winners at 11/4, 7/1 and 2/5
Quinte du chatelet out to 9/2 signalled no confidence and he lost as did market leader Archduke

Acquiesed 2/5 shot! and I went for the place - d'oh! HE won


230 CATTERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Feeling Fab, 3/1 Sultans Way, 7/1 Diesis Of Cloyne, 10/1 Montmartre, 16/1 Classic Contours, 33/1 Imperial Angel, 50/1 Always Gunner ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Mark Johnston, Mark Wallace and Paul Cole are all operating at above 30% with 2yos here in recent seasons, and the first-named trainer looks to have a solid candidate in FEELING FAB (nap). The other handlers are represented by Stirling Castle and Sultans Way respectively but both strictly have something to find with the selectio

No early prices and a market move for Dieses of Cloyne would have to be heeded - betting forecaster has this debutant 3rd fav, probably because Karl Burke is a gambling yard. No early prices - 9 in the field and another short priced fav based on an encouraging 2nd palce in this maiden race
Some value perhaps in Sultans Way who ran on heavy last time -place only

300
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Nelsons Column, 5/2 General Tufto, 3/1 Pairumani Pat, 13/2 Lady Grantley, 12/1 Matinee Idol, 16/1 Miss Havisham, 33/1 Key To Caius, 50/1 Evianne, 66/1 Spiders Star .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There are stamina question marks about a few of these, including Nelsons Column, who comes out top on the figures. General Tufto is possibly a more likely stayer than him, but PAIRUMANI PAT might beat them both as he looks sure to be suited by this trip (sire and dam were stayers) and shaped promisingly at this level on his debut.

As with the Newton Abbott race yesterday, a congested head of the market signals a lay of the shortest priced horse with the hope that the rivals put up enough resistance

345 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Royal Island, 5/1 One Called Alice, 13/2 Apache Dawn, 9/1 Goose Green, 12/1 Atteme Bomb, Coup D´Etat, The Gaikwar, 14/1 Personify, 16/1 Compulsion, 20/1 Charlie Be, 22/1 Bewdley, 25/1 Poppy Red, 28/1 Heroic Lad, 33/1 Dungleddy Star, 40/1 Foxy Diplomat, 50/1 Follow The Buzz, Les Allues .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A standout horse on the figures, with ROYAL ISLAND well in front of anything else in this conditions race seller according to adjusted handicap ratings. On the minus side, Royal Island's last win was three years ago and he was below-par last time but, on several pieces of form this season, he has a good bit in hand of this opposition, dropped markedly in grade now. He isn't easy to get away from and is taken to capitalise on the weakness of his rivals, the pick of which may be reliable One Called Alice

Fav in a big field seller hasn't won in 3 years - YIKES ! - A lay if I can engineer odds on ( probably keep bets)

GOWRAN AND ROSCOMMON - watch out for the Irish Combos again after a good day yesterday for Smullen and Murtagh

FOOTY
I do like to get involved in friendlies nearer to the kick off of the actual season and Liverpool look good tonight against Valeranga. A simple back to trade after they score the first goal (if in running) should suffice for an unexciting profit

RAngers 8/13 away to KAunas - a must win for Rangers -they usually win their must wins

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