Monday 11 August 2008

12/8

JAconet 5th 7/2 - I mentioned it was "5 furlong and soft ground"
Crystal Moments - non runner
Rum jungle 2nd 9/4
French Art 2nd 2/5
Elegant Cad 1st 4/11

Again all places here bar Jaconet and it would seem as the days go by that place only betting allows a lot of leighway but prices of course will be very restrictive.
Ideas? Target profit per day using the place market? Big stakes required though but the chance of reaching target on 1st bet.

810 MUSS
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Horatio Carter, 9/2 King Kenny, 5/1 Zabeel Tower, 6/1 Flores Sea, 13/2 Flying Bantam, 10/1 Botham, 14/1 Avontuur, 20/1 Attacca .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A few of these often race prominently and Horatio Carter could be a little vulnerable under a penalty for his all-the-way Carlisle win. Zabeel Tower, unbeaten in two starts here this term, has to enter calculations but KING KENNY is taken to build on his Pontefract effort, with confidence enhanced if he attracts market support again.

Good to soft but 810 kick off here and I would be wary about soft ground. 1.52 to place for Horatio Carter and 3.8 to win.

655 NOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Tasheba, 4/1 The Betchworth Kid, 7/1 Judgethemoment, 8/1 Yossi, 9/1 Directa´s Digger, Horseford Hill, 16/1 Salute, 25/1 Turban Heights ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TASHEBA (nap) makes a good bit of appeal, having progressed well since being upped to staying trips. Despite his rise in the handicap and being pitched into a better race here, he still looks the pick of the weights and we know he handles give in the ground perfectly well. The Betchworth Kid can chase him home.

Tasheeba place 1.17 win 1.84 win

Other races to consider.... where there is a price gap but 2 prominent market leaders

230 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Red Kestrel, 9/4 Buddhist Monk, 6/1 Street Crime, 14/1 Pinnacle Point, 16/1 Futurity, 33/1 Marsh Court .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Buddhist Monk has the ability to win a similar race but RED KESTREL (nap) looks sure to improve on his debut effort and this extra distance should be in his favour

Red Kestrel 1.2 to place 1.67 to win

330
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Liberty Valance, 7/4 Zippi Jazzman, 8/1 Deal Flipper, Meridian Line, 10/1 Sinead Of Aglish, 33/1 Hold That Call .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: None of these are remotely convincing and LIBERTY VALANCE, who travelled strongly for much of the race at Leicester last time, is the tentative selection now back at sprint trips

Liberty Valance 1.56 to place 2.64
Zippy Jazzman 1.88 to place 3.25

610 MUSS
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Dimashq, 9/4 Kyber, 5/2 Rightful Ruler, 8/1 Merryvale Man, 25/1 Asrar, 33/1 Always Best, Stravonian, 50/1 Monte Pattino .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Kyber is sure to be popular in a bid for a repeat win, while recent improver Dimashq is respected, but RIGHTFUL RULER gets the nod now back on the Flat after taking some steps forward over timber lately.

Dimashq 1.31 place 2.7
Rightful Ruler 1.3 to place 3.2
Kyber 1.52 place 5.8

640
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Dispol Kylie, 13/8 Majuba, 9/2 Blow Your Mind, 14/1 Dispol Grand, 33/1 Jethro Bodine, Wee Bizzom .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Top weights DISPOL KYLIE (nap) and Majuba are the two to concentrate on, with preference for the former whose ability to handle conditions is not in doubt. Blow Your Mind is not out of things on one piece of collateral form with Majuba and will find this easier than last time if handling the ground

Dispol Kylie 1.41 place 2.2 win
Majuba 1.43 to place 2.92 win


740
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Highland Warrior, 5/2 Circuit Dancer, 9/2 Oranmore Castle, 6/1 Pegasus Dancer, 8/1 Ingleby Star, 9/1 Fire Up The Band, 25/1 Princess Charlmane, 50/1 Seafield Towers, 66/1 Alfie Lee, Ducal Regancy Red, Percy Douglas, 100/1 Mister Marmaduke, 250/1 Ronnies Girl .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not many to be concerned with despite the numbers and under the forcast conditions, HIGHLAND WARRIOR just gets the vote over Circuit Dancer.

Highland Warrior 1.48 place 2.84win
Circuit dancer 1.61 place 4.1 win

I thought I'd include prices at time of writing (1040am) to look at the viability of target profit with place only betting. Yes it sounds like a silly idea and stakes even with a target profit of a five r will escalate quickly after an unplaced horse.












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