I hope you heeded the warnings yesterday - Provence 2nd in a 5 furlong maiden , Littledodayno nowhere in an apprentice ridden race. Yes Adversity won, but at 1/3 this was expected and Ryan Moore booted him home with ease and as for Faraday, typically for a Barney Curley horse, he either wins comfortably or goes nowhere - the latter was the case yesterday so i'm glad I didn't play
Rydal came 2nd at 4/1 which is fine from an each way perspective -Magic Glade, the potential price gapper won. In a 2 the place race, Foxhaven couldn't manage the place - perhaps its wiser to stick to races where there's a payout for 3 the place? Hellfire Boy was a great 3rd at 12/1 ( note 7 runner race at the off but Betfair always pays out 3 the place so I was happy with that!) The each ways continue to place largely which is reassuring as our stakes are pretty much returned in anticipation of the winner who will arrive soon. A good policy to employ.
125 PUNCHESTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Ah Ya Boy Ya, 5/1 Darling Harbour, The Gloves Are Off, 8/1 Curragh Mountain, 10/1 Diyla, Storey Coburn, 12/1 Rockfield, Sir Malik, 14/1 Dawn Assault, 16/1 Bottleforthebattle, Inishmot Girl, 20/1 Fabien, Port La Chaine, Seismologie, 25/1 According To Kate, Betabob, Dahra One, Florimund, 33/1 Liffey Side, Shady Mo, Sly Touch ,
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: AH YA BOY YA is becoming an expensive sort to follow, but seems to have been found a good opportunity to make amends for three instances of beaten favouritism since his debut second in a bumper at Killarney in July. The main worry concern here is that he looked more in need of a longer trip than today's shorter distance when beaten a neck by former Flat winner Strath Gallant on his hurdling debut at Fairyhouse a week ago. One positive to take from that race is that he managed to reverse previous Listowel bumper running with Bennys Quest. I include this one out of interest - form shows 2232 - obviously at the business end of races and a modicum of consistency augur well for another good run today. Price gap is there, and beaten a neck last time. BUT this is a maiden hurdle, and these types of race are usually carnage for the short prices. Add to this a 22 runner field and a number of debutants and we are back on shaky ground. Against my better judgement, I will be with Ah ya Boy ya today , the big field should ensure the price remains over evens. I would certainly not bet odds on. No doubt I will regret this but today could be the day. An obvious bet would be backing pre race, and laying off the bet in running at a shorter price on the assumption the horse will be at the business end as his form suggests.
155 PUNCHESTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Narquois, 6/1 Miley Byrne, 7/1 Another Jayjay, 10/1 Thefactofthematter, 14/1 Dan George, Tigerland, 20/1 Ciara Eile, Dillons Hill, Double Me Up, Lusikisiki, Rory´s Star, Shewalksthewalk, Subtle Prince, 25/1 Another Surge, Chinara, Oyster Queen, Red Basil, 33/1 Bombay And Tonic, Cutting Chrystal, Tripalot, 66/1 Tales Of New York, 100/1 Emmy Supreme ,
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: NARQUOIS will be very hard to beat if returning to action in the same form as when third to Shuil Oisin over the course and trip almost a year ago. Though it would be simplistic to take a literal view of the fact that he finished only 1 1/2l behind runner-up Farmer Brown, whose sustained improvement saw him win this season's Galway Hurdle, it was a decent maiden in overall terms, with fourth place going to subsequent hurdles and chase winner Care And Share. The current good form of the Meade stable offers the hope that he will be fit and ready for this, and perhaps a bigger worrry is that his winning form over 1m7f in France suggests that he will do better over further than 2m. The price gap is there as are the trigger words " will be very hard to beat" but there is an "if" and that is that the horse hasn't been on the track for nearly a year. This is an obvious concern and backers will be hoping the "if" doesn't surface and the horse will be, indeed, "very hard to beat" - On the plus side Paul Carberry is on board.
COMMENT
As with yesterday these price gappers really aren't ideal because it's Ireland, big fields and race type. So those waiting for nailed on templated price gappers would do well to leave these 2 alone - will the first horse get his head in front of 22 opponents in the maiden hurdle? Will the 2nd horse overcome a year off the track and reproduce his form from that year ago and be "very hard to beat". It's all conjecture and hope!
EACH WAYS
COntinues ticking along while we wait for a winner - at least the large proportion of selections are placing until that winner arrives which ensures a return of stakes, and in some cases, a little more on top
130 CATTERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Bishopbriggs, 9/4 Premier Danseur, 9/2 Seta Pura, 10/1 Aerialist, 14/1 Laureldean Breeze, 16/1 Royal Acclamation, 25/1 Make A Bid, Stagecoach Topaz, Tanley, 33/1 Riki Wiki Wheels,
4 before 14/1 and the obvious candidate looks to be Seta Pura
230 CATTERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Rainbow Fox, 5/1 Distant Sun, Expensive Art, 11/2 Argentine, Umpa Loompa, 6/1 Feelin Foxy, Ingleby Princess, 33/1 Alloro, 66/1 Bella Grande.
Very interesting to see 7 horses between 7/2 and 6/1. This indicates to me that the favourite is worth taking on and I'll plump for a horse positioned in the middle of this bunch in Argentine each way -hope he places at least
250 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 What´s For Tea, 7/2 Hurstpierpoint, 8/1 Kabuku, Prunes, 10/1 Khana Ras, 16/1 Carry On Cleo, 20/1 High Wonder, Ten On Line, 25/1 Mio Fiore, Raines Boy, 33/1 Lavemill, 50/1 Little Finch .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: WHAT'S FOR TEA has good prospects of enhancing Tom Dascombe's fine strike-rate with his juveniles here and is preferred to Hurstpierpoint.[FC]
Hurstpierpoint each way ,currently at 7/1 because the favourite has been very well backed in this claimer. The makings of a price gapper judging by early morning prices but this is a claiming stakes race.
NB NO BLOG TOMORROW - I HAVE TO GO TO THE BIG SMOKE TO MEET THE BOSSMAN!
Tuesday 30 October 2007
Monday 29 October 2007
29 OCT
Wlcome to the Jumps season. We rarely get fallers on the flat, but had one yesterday, along with a non runner and a 2nd at 11/2 which I would have loved to have won - we have to take the fallers on the chin - goes with the territory alas. Gemini storm was contending but that's life.
I was right to swerve some of the potential price gappers - making returns from long lay offs meant a lot of the shorties yesterday underperformed.
PRICE GAPPERS
140 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Faraday, 8/1 Dinner Date, Moyoko, 10/1 Noah Jameel, 12/1 Astrolibra, Bowl Of Cherries, My Monna, 14/1 Don Pasquale, Sekula Pata, 16/1 Cove Mountain, Fortune Point, Storm Path, 33/1 Montana Sky, Surdoue .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: FARADAY, backed off the boards at Wolverhampton last time will be hard to beat, assuming the market vibes are similarly positive. The race for second place looks more competitive and Moyoko can edge it.[AM]"will be hard to beat" - I like to see it! Prominent price gap. My only concern is this is a class 6 handicap - hardly the BReeders Cup!
Another cause for concern. This is a Barney curley horse "backed off the boards at Wolverhampton last time" - that's Barney curley alright! I am worried we may have missed the boat as far as the winning run is concerned. I shan't be having a play because of the trainer although I note Jamie Spencer is onboard and, with the flat jockey's title still within grasp, he wouldn't be riding this one if it wasn't without a chance. So watch out for the market here.
210 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Adversity, 9/2 Mafioso, 6/1 Dan Chillingworth, 7/1 Media Stars, 10/1 Arabian Spirit, 14/1 Rowaad, 50/1 Aleatricis, Festival Dreams, 66/1 Balletic, Yakama, 100/1 Amicus, Hits Only Time .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ADVERSITY (nap) made a good impression on his debut at Lingfield last month and has a lot going for him. Dan Chillingworth may be next best.[EMW]"should be hard to beat barring accidents."
A maiden stakes race and a horse with only the one run installed as warm favourite - seen it all before. Backed based on one run - comes 2nd!POSITIVES - Ryan Moore, who is superb, instils a lot of confidence for backers. the price gap remains in the morning market ,and, going against my better judgement, Adversity may be the one for me to back at an unexciting price
120 LEICESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Provence, 4/1 Minshar, 10/1 Duty Doctor, Monashee Rock, Red Amaryllis, 16/1 Holly Golightley, 20/1 Didana, 25/1 Centenerola, Princess Augusta, 33/1 Never Catcher, 50/1 Cealtra Star, Felicia, Madame Bountiful, 100/1 Pretty Officer, Rosie Says No ,
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PROVENCE was head and shoulders above these on form even before her soft-ground Newmarket third was franked by the fourth at the weekend and is expected to open her account. Minshar is better than she was able to show last time but she needs to improve a good deal on her promising debut.[PJ]God help us all - a good to soft 5 furlong maiden ! Why me? Obviously the form has been franked convincingly regarding Provence, the price gap has widened this morning which is a positive, but 6 of the 16 are debutants and as such could be anything. SImilarly there are a number of horses who have had the 2 runs = more experience and could come on leaps and bounds. Provence is clearly the most likely winner but the good to soft and sprint distance is a niggle.
130 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Littledodayno, 5/1 Duke Of Milan, 6/1 Razzano, 10/1 Gone´N´Dunnett, King Of Charm, 12/1 Blessed Place, Two Acres, 16/1 Rhapsilian, 20/1 Beau Bramble, Shantina´s Dream, 25/1 Campbeltown, Sir Mikeale .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Razzano and Duke Of Milan are both respected in a modest contest but LITTLEDODAYNO (nap) ran a solid race in defeat at Kempton last time and can belatedly put her head in front this season after some eyecatching efforts.[PSm]
Price gap enhanced in morning market. No real " will be hard to beat" , more an expectation of a belated win based on prior close shaves. Add to this the fact this is an apprentice ridden race, and I'll get me coat!
Again, will probably win, but as with most examples today, there are niggles
COMMENT - personally I would limit myself to one today. The BArney Curley horse will not reach the short list, despite Jamie Spencer's presence as we may have missed the architypal Curley run -winning with jockey sipping a cognac!. Other potential price gappers appear in maiden races, one a one time out runner installed as fav based solely on that one run, the other in a 5 furlong event on good to soft ground over 5 furlongs. Add to that the last horse in an apprentice ridden race, and we have arguments for a no back day today. Adversity and PRovence are my shortlisted selections I think. IF forced, I will put my trust in Adversity and Ryan Moore to bring home the bacon
EACH WAY
240 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Magic Glade, 4/1 Rydal, 10/1 Regal Raider, 12/1 Briannsta, 14/1 Lindbergh, 16/1 Royal Challenge, 20/1 Calloff The Search, Detonate, 33/1 Cayman Breeze, Luloah, 50/1 Time For Change ,
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MAGIC GLADE has had a great year for this yard and has a good deal going for him on these terms. Rydal is preferred of the others.[EMW]Another potential price gapper but Rydal was too close - I will take Rydal as my first each way chance incase the fav falters in this claimer
250 LEICESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 New Guinea, 7/2 Foxhaven, 7/1 Futun, Young Mick, 10/1 Millville, 300/1 Black Wadi, Little Darlin.
Foxhaven each way ( only 2 the place) -may be able to exploit favs under performing?
350 LEICESTER
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Alwaabel, 6/4 Lord Sandicliffe, 8/1 Hellfire Bay, 10/1 Ricci De Mare, 50/1 Billberry, Encore Belle, 66/1 Bad Moon Rising, Love And Glory, 100/1 My Flame .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: None of the newcomers makes a lot of appeal, with Ricci De Mare perhaps the most interesting. ALWAABEL (nap), who comes here in preference to Newmarket later in the week, is taken to account for Lord Sandicliffe.[GW]
Hellfire Bay each way may exploit one of the 2 market leaders not giving their runnings
I was right to swerve some of the potential price gappers - making returns from long lay offs meant a lot of the shorties yesterday underperformed.
PRICE GAPPERS
140 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Faraday, 8/1 Dinner Date, Moyoko, 10/1 Noah Jameel, 12/1 Astrolibra, Bowl Of Cherries, My Monna, 14/1 Don Pasquale, Sekula Pata, 16/1 Cove Mountain, Fortune Point, Storm Path, 33/1 Montana Sky, Surdoue .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: FARADAY, backed off the boards at Wolverhampton last time will be hard to beat, assuming the market vibes are similarly positive. The race for second place looks more competitive and Moyoko can edge it.[AM]"will be hard to beat" - I like to see it! Prominent price gap. My only concern is this is a class 6 handicap - hardly the BReeders Cup!
Another cause for concern. This is a Barney curley horse "backed off the boards at Wolverhampton last time" - that's Barney curley alright! I am worried we may have missed the boat as far as the winning run is concerned. I shan't be having a play because of the trainer although I note Jamie Spencer is onboard and, with the flat jockey's title still within grasp, he wouldn't be riding this one if it wasn't without a chance. So watch out for the market here.
210 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Adversity, 9/2 Mafioso, 6/1 Dan Chillingworth, 7/1 Media Stars, 10/1 Arabian Spirit, 14/1 Rowaad, 50/1 Aleatricis, Festival Dreams, 66/1 Balletic, Yakama, 100/1 Amicus, Hits Only Time .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ADVERSITY (nap) made a good impression on his debut at Lingfield last month and has a lot going for him. Dan Chillingworth may be next best.[EMW]"should be hard to beat barring accidents."
A maiden stakes race and a horse with only the one run installed as warm favourite - seen it all before. Backed based on one run - comes 2nd!POSITIVES - Ryan Moore, who is superb, instils a lot of confidence for backers. the price gap remains in the morning market ,and, going against my better judgement, Adversity may be the one for me to back at an unexciting price
120 LEICESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Provence, 4/1 Minshar, 10/1 Duty Doctor, Monashee Rock, Red Amaryllis, 16/1 Holly Golightley, 20/1 Didana, 25/1 Centenerola, Princess Augusta, 33/1 Never Catcher, 50/1 Cealtra Star, Felicia, Madame Bountiful, 100/1 Pretty Officer, Rosie Says No ,
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PROVENCE was head and shoulders above these on form even before her soft-ground Newmarket third was franked by the fourth at the weekend and is expected to open her account. Minshar is better than she was able to show last time but she needs to improve a good deal on her promising debut.[PJ]God help us all - a good to soft 5 furlong maiden ! Why me? Obviously the form has been franked convincingly regarding Provence, the price gap has widened this morning which is a positive, but 6 of the 16 are debutants and as such could be anything. SImilarly there are a number of horses who have had the 2 runs = more experience and could come on leaps and bounds. Provence is clearly the most likely winner but the good to soft and sprint distance is a niggle.
130 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Littledodayno, 5/1 Duke Of Milan, 6/1 Razzano, 10/1 Gone´N´Dunnett, King Of Charm, 12/1 Blessed Place, Two Acres, 16/1 Rhapsilian, 20/1 Beau Bramble, Shantina´s Dream, 25/1 Campbeltown, Sir Mikeale .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Razzano and Duke Of Milan are both respected in a modest contest but LITTLEDODAYNO (nap) ran a solid race in defeat at Kempton last time and can belatedly put her head in front this season after some eyecatching efforts.[PSm]
Price gap enhanced in morning market. No real " will be hard to beat" , more an expectation of a belated win based on prior close shaves. Add to this the fact this is an apprentice ridden race, and I'll get me coat!
Again, will probably win, but as with most examples today, there are niggles
COMMENT - personally I would limit myself to one today. The BArney Curley horse will not reach the short list, despite Jamie Spencer's presence as we may have missed the architypal Curley run -winning with jockey sipping a cognac!. Other potential price gappers appear in maiden races, one a one time out runner installed as fav based solely on that one run, the other in a 5 furlong event on good to soft ground over 5 furlongs. Add to that the last horse in an apprentice ridden race, and we have arguments for a no back day today. Adversity and PRovence are my shortlisted selections I think. IF forced, I will put my trust in Adversity and Ryan Moore to bring home the bacon
EACH WAY
240 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Magic Glade, 4/1 Rydal, 10/1 Regal Raider, 12/1 Briannsta, 14/1 Lindbergh, 16/1 Royal Challenge, 20/1 Calloff The Search, Detonate, 33/1 Cayman Breeze, Luloah, 50/1 Time For Change ,
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MAGIC GLADE has had a great year for this yard and has a good deal going for him on these terms. Rydal is preferred of the others.[EMW]Another potential price gapper but Rydal was too close - I will take Rydal as my first each way chance incase the fav falters in this claimer
250 LEICESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 New Guinea, 7/2 Foxhaven, 7/1 Futun, Young Mick, 10/1 Millville, 300/1 Black Wadi, Little Darlin.
Foxhaven each way ( only 2 the place) -may be able to exploit favs under performing?
350 LEICESTER
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Alwaabel, 6/4 Lord Sandicliffe, 8/1 Hellfire Bay, 10/1 Ricci De Mare, 50/1 Billberry, Encore Belle, 66/1 Bad Moon Rising, Love And Glory, 100/1 My Flame .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: None of the newcomers makes a lot of appeal, with Ricci De Mare perhaps the most interesting. ALWAABEL (nap), who comes here in preference to Newmarket later in the week, is taken to account for Lord Sandicliffe.[GW]
Hellfire Bay each way may exploit one of the 2 market leaders not giving their runnings
Sunday 28 October 2007
I suppose it was asking too much for all selections to win yesterday and I did warn about selectivity -just jope you picked the right ones!Master Nimbus at 4/1 tried to make all but emptied out under the weight.
Nakai won well at 8/11, as did Klabarg at 7/4, I shouldnt have let heart rule head re Dylan Thomas - soft ground = no bet - - discipline!GEmini Lucy nearly came home and Galactic star found the upping in class too much - soft ground and scoop 6 race were the warning signs!Miussit managed 2nd.Each ways, 1 non runner, 1 placed at 8/1 and i unplaced.
No reaql price gappers today - small fields at Aintree and some likely candidates but a lot of the shorties today are making their debuts,either seasonal or under a different jumping code. Similar at Wincantion where you'll notice a couple with price gaps in the 120, 220 and 255 races. I'm put off by the lack of extreme confidence by Spotlight, but you can make your own minds up.
EACH WAY
Continues ok, with a placed horse at 8/1, a non runner and an unplaced yesterday
105 AINTREE
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Crocodiles Rock, 3/1 Laborec, 8/1 Greenbridge, 10/1 Cryptic, 16/1 Ballynalty Express, Spartacus Bay, 25/1 The Snurglar, 40/1 Rathcor, 66/1 Shade Bonny, 100/1 Talesofriverbank.Laborec here each way
130 TOWCESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Tanners Hall, 3/1 Eurocelt, 7/1 Caged Tiger, 10/1 Doctor Kilbride, 12/1 Morgan The Mighty, 14/1 Beaufort, 16/1 Ellies Horse, Huckleberry, 20/1 Donald Will Do, 25/1 Velvet Skye, 33/1 Tickford Abbey, 50/1 Moorland Grit, My Beautiful Loser, Xandra Weld, 100/1 Mine The Balance, 200/1 Winsome Wendy .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A suitable opportunity for the unexposed winning pointer TANNERS HALL to make a winning debut for his top yard. Eurocelt boasts the form under Rules to pose the most threat.[BDO] |
340 TOWC
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Another Jewel, Gemini Storm, 5/1 Bermuda Pointe, Goscar Rock, South Sands, 14/1 Aliba, Queen Excalibur, Wild Chimes, 20/1 Nautic, 25/1 Heartofmidlothian, 33/1 Narval D´Avelot .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: GEMINI STORM has been gaining experience over today's track, only just touched off on his penultimate start over further, and is taken to open his account. Goscar Park would be of interest if coming in for support.[DHi] |
Saturday 27 October 2007
27 OCTOBER
Good win for Kaldoun Kingdom, Kahara came 2nd which was good for the place only bet in such a big field. It's a pity the Discreet Cat race was on so late as if I had seen the ground conditions earlier this would never have been a bet - the ground was sloppy and ,as an equivalent to heavy ground, a no bet . Well done to Boz, winning again. Each way wins for Silk affair and Grethel very pleasing .Cool Roxy won for the twin cycles
Very busy day today so it's best to try to stick to the cream of the crop and keep the results of the last 2 days going - excellent form
PRICE GAPPERS
210 AINTREE
ETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Master Nimbus, 11/2 Idarah, 7/1 King´s Revenge, 8/1 Border Tale, 9/1 Peacock, 10/1 Folk Tune, 12/1 Lord Baskerville, Motive, 14/1 Culcabock, Kristiansand, 16/1 Prince Picasso, 20/1 Brooklyn Breeze.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A number of these are lightly raced over hurdles and the likes of King's Revenge, Idarah and Folk Tune are all open to improvement. However, they'll all have to go to catch MASTER NIMBUS (nap), who won with plenty to spare last time and is well up to defying his new mark.[DHi]
I know I said I would be looking for the cream of the crop today and this one does not quiote fit in with an ideal bet, but at 5/2 may be worth an interest. A reasonable price gap and a horse who won eased down last time. This is a high quality field so the price gap takes on added significance. Not an official bet but worthy of a second look - I would err on the place bet side with an 11lb weiht hike to contend with and the old winning sequence which will end soon.
405 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Nakai, 5/1 Aaron´s Run, 13/2 Simply Smart, 7/1 Matmogul, 12/1 Garleton, 14/1 King Of The Jungle, 16/1 Clifden Boy, Gaora Lane, Kisha King, 25/1 Rock Star Appeal, 28/1 Opal Ridge, Takeachanceonhim, 33/1 Power King, 40/1 Arctic Shadow, Joshuas Vista, Just Playfull.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Despite the big field, only a handful at most appeal. The key horse is NAKAI, winner of two Irish points and second in a decent Fairyhouse bumper in last season's three starts. He is likely to be very hard to beat at this level if transferring that ability to hurdles. Aaron's Run and the selection's stablemate Simply Smart are the most interesting of the opposition. [MCu]
There are some likely candidates in earlier races at Chepstow ( I'm sure you can spot them) but they're missing one key ingredient which is the Spotlight confidence - not so here - there is an "if" and it is this if that we will be betting against oif we back Nakai. Price gap remains in the early morning prices and worthy of attention at 4/5, although I suspect this race is better tackled from an each way perspective.
That said, I will back the horse today in the hope that he WILL be able to transfer his ability to hurdles - if so he will be " very hard to beat at this level"
200 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Kal Barg, 15/2 Upton Grey, 9/1 Huzzah, 10/1 Kiwi Bay, 12/1 Bonny Rose, Feisty Royale, 14/1 Captain Royale, 16/1 Bigalo´s Magic, Harry Gee, Resounding Glory, Tadalavil, 20/1 Ginger Pickle, Lodi, 25/1 Dan Tucket, Flowing Cape, 33/1 Karky Schultz.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A case to be made for several of the runners but none more convincing than that for KAL BARG who looks sure to make a bold bid judged on his latest fine third at Ascot. Upton Grey may give him most to do.[FC]
Again this race is worth a mention but is not a rock solid bet - why? 16 runner 2 year old nursery over a sprint distance. That said, I am taken by the form shown by Kal BArg in the race won by Ibn Khaldun - again I have done NO form analysis, the information is available in Spotlight's commentary.
It's up to you if you want to back. You will be backing in the hope the form will be franked today but I am put off by field size and race type.
MONMOUTH PARK
WIth the dirt track sloppy I would not be having a play unless it was on the turf track no matter how good the horses are.
950
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Dylan Thomas, 4/1 English Channel, 11/2 Red Rocks, 7/1 Better Talk Now, 11/1 Grand Couturier, 16/1 Shamdinan, 50/1 Fri Guy, Transduction Gold.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It was a brilliant tactical move to switch ENGLISH CHANNEL's pacemaker Icy Atlantic to the Mile. His withdrawal creates a big problem for Dylan Thomas, Red Rocks and Better Talk Now, who would all have benefited from a strong gallop. I see English Channel as a good thing to take this with Grand Couturier worth a saver at big odds.
Price gap there - it's not on the dirt track, BUT Arc winners have had a torrid time of it in the BReeders Cup. I will be backing Dylan though if price remains. NOTE - Spotlight comment provided by Nick Mordin - a one off so I take it as his opinion only - he is not the usual Spotlight writer
240 NAAS
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Gemini Lucy, 7/2 Carthalawn, 11/2 Dbest, 7/1 Ballyagran, 10/1 Coolgreaney.
Small field - positive write up - worth a chance at current odds - price gap takes on added significance in such a small field
250 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Galactic Star, 9/2 Red Gala, 6/1 Ivy Creek, 7/1 Crime Scene, Linas Selection, Regime, 20/1 Dash To The Front,
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Possible this may be tactical, but a steady pace did not prevent GALACTIC STAR (nap) complete his hat-trick last time, when Crime Scene was back in fourth, and he can successfully make the step up to Group company. Stable-companion Red Gala, who was set a huge amount to do last time, also looks as if he has more to offer.[AC]
Price gap certainly there - Ryan Moore in the saddle, but I may not back Galactic star for the following reasons - on a 4 timer - a winning sequence which will end soon =- step up to group company too will make the task more difficult. I am though taken by Ryan Moore who is a class act.
Good to soft ground conditions are also offputting as is the fact this is a scoop 6 race
400 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Missit, 11/2 Shamayel, 8/1 Lady Deauville, Maramba, 10/1 Perfect Act, 12/1 Fanatical, 14/1 Hobby, 33/1 Miss Bootylishes, Serena´s Storm, Tamara Moon, 50/1 Clifton Dancer.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Barry Hills has been the trainer to follow in this Listed race with three winners, a second and a third in the last six years and his Shamayel, with the likelihood of better to come, is entitled to plenty of respect. However, if MISSIT is in the same form as she was last weekend it should not be necessary to look further for the winner. Lady Deauville may be the best each-way alternative.[FC]
Positive spotlight commentary - good price gap replicated in the early morning price market-negative - fillies race and the ladies can be a tad unpredictable with their minds on shopping and kittens
I've said it before, as a listed contest, price gaps take on added significance and strength because we're not dealing with dodge pots here!
COMMENT - it is unrealistic to expect all of the above to oblige - a busy SAturday means that you should use your discretion and draw up a short list of 1 or 2 price gappers from those which provide the most compelling case to back
EACH WAYS
Great run of late and hope it continues - keeping selections to 3 ensures I opt for the better candiidates
700 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Torrens, 5/2 Nawamees, 7/2 History Boy, 8/1 Drizzi, 14/1 Maria Antonia, 16/1 Oscarshall, 25/1 Escoffier, 33/1 Gateland, Zaffeu, 66/1 Itsy Bitsy, Star Berry, 250/1 Taran Tregarth.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With no obvious front-runner in the field this could develop into a muddling contest, but for all that it is still hard to look beyond the top four in the weights despite all of them appearing best held up. History Boy’s win here back in the summer is still fresh in the memory, but on more recent form TORRENS is a safer option than either Nawamees or Drizzi.[GN]
4 before the 14\1 shows us where to look - Drizzi could place here if one of the top 3 fail to give their running
310 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Cantabilly, Full House, 4/1 Grecian Groom, 9/2 Leamington Lad, 13/2 Bureaucrat, 14/1 Dune Raider, 16/1 Take A Mile, 25/1 Voir Dire, 33/1 Tora Petcha.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: FULL HOUSE will appreciate this drop in class after running in top handicaps on the Flat. A strong-traveller who should be suited by these conditions, he can see off Cantabilly and Leamington Lad. [AA]
9 in the field - 3 the place - 5 before 14/1 - Leamington Lad each way for me
420 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Bremen, 5/2 Shore Thing, 11/2 With Speed, 12/1 Conservation, 14/1 Sunset Boulevard, 20/1 Magic Rush, 33/1 Marker, Raise Again, The Cayterers, 40/1 King´s Fable, 50/1 Indian Wizard, 66/1 Champion De Sou, Tamworth, 100/1 Chipchenko.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BREMEN (nap) ran a decent horse close on his hurdling debut and can get off the mark here. Shore Thing looks the main danger, while With Speed can't be ruled out.
Shore thing is at an each way price in this maiden hurdle where I'm always keen to take the fav on
FOOTY
Concentration today on the Man Utd match I think - I will give Middlesburgh a 1.5 goal start at 1.67 odds. I cannot see Boro doing much from an attacking perspective.
I will be laying Celtic at current odds of 1.23 with an eye to trading if the odds increase during the first half. After mid week European excersions last time, they were lucky to beat Gretna and Motherwell may keep this close early doors. The odds are such that we won't lose much in liability should Celtic score early ( which I'm not expecting)
I will go for the over 2.5 goal trade at Portsmouth v West Ham - I see goals in this - 2 at least will enable me to trade out of my bet
Very busy day today so it's best to try to stick to the cream of the crop and keep the results of the last 2 days going - excellent form
PRICE GAPPERS
210 AINTREE
ETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Master Nimbus, 11/2 Idarah, 7/1 King´s Revenge, 8/1 Border Tale, 9/1 Peacock, 10/1 Folk Tune, 12/1 Lord Baskerville, Motive, 14/1 Culcabock, Kristiansand, 16/1 Prince Picasso, 20/1 Brooklyn Breeze.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A number of these are lightly raced over hurdles and the likes of King's Revenge, Idarah and Folk Tune are all open to improvement. However, they'll all have to go to catch MASTER NIMBUS (nap), who won with plenty to spare last time and is well up to defying his new mark.[DHi]
I know I said I would be looking for the cream of the crop today and this one does not quiote fit in with an ideal bet, but at 5/2 may be worth an interest. A reasonable price gap and a horse who won eased down last time. This is a high quality field so the price gap takes on added significance. Not an official bet but worthy of a second look - I would err on the place bet side with an 11lb weiht hike to contend with and the old winning sequence which will end soon.
405 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Nakai, 5/1 Aaron´s Run, 13/2 Simply Smart, 7/1 Matmogul, 12/1 Garleton, 14/1 King Of The Jungle, 16/1 Clifden Boy, Gaora Lane, Kisha King, 25/1 Rock Star Appeal, 28/1 Opal Ridge, Takeachanceonhim, 33/1 Power King, 40/1 Arctic Shadow, Joshuas Vista, Just Playfull.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Despite the big field, only a handful at most appeal. The key horse is NAKAI, winner of two Irish points and second in a decent Fairyhouse bumper in last season's three starts. He is likely to be very hard to beat at this level if transferring that ability to hurdles. Aaron's Run and the selection's stablemate Simply Smart are the most interesting of the opposition. [MCu]
There are some likely candidates in earlier races at Chepstow ( I'm sure you can spot them) but they're missing one key ingredient which is the Spotlight confidence - not so here - there is an "if" and it is this if that we will be betting against oif we back Nakai. Price gap remains in the early morning prices and worthy of attention at 4/5, although I suspect this race is better tackled from an each way perspective.
That said, I will back the horse today in the hope that he WILL be able to transfer his ability to hurdles - if so he will be " very hard to beat at this level"
200 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Kal Barg, 15/2 Upton Grey, 9/1 Huzzah, 10/1 Kiwi Bay, 12/1 Bonny Rose, Feisty Royale, 14/1 Captain Royale, 16/1 Bigalo´s Magic, Harry Gee, Resounding Glory, Tadalavil, 20/1 Ginger Pickle, Lodi, 25/1 Dan Tucket, Flowing Cape, 33/1 Karky Schultz.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A case to be made for several of the runners but none more convincing than that for KAL BARG who looks sure to make a bold bid judged on his latest fine third at Ascot. Upton Grey may give him most to do.[FC]
Again this race is worth a mention but is not a rock solid bet - why? 16 runner 2 year old nursery over a sprint distance. That said, I am taken by the form shown by Kal BArg in the race won by Ibn Khaldun - again I have done NO form analysis, the information is available in Spotlight's commentary.
It's up to you if you want to back. You will be backing in the hope the form will be franked today but I am put off by field size and race type.
MONMOUTH PARK
WIth the dirt track sloppy I would not be having a play unless it was on the turf track no matter how good the horses are.
950
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Dylan Thomas, 4/1 English Channel, 11/2 Red Rocks, 7/1 Better Talk Now, 11/1 Grand Couturier, 16/1 Shamdinan, 50/1 Fri Guy, Transduction Gold.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It was a brilliant tactical move to switch ENGLISH CHANNEL's pacemaker Icy Atlantic to the Mile. His withdrawal creates a big problem for Dylan Thomas, Red Rocks and Better Talk Now, who would all have benefited from a strong gallop. I see English Channel as a good thing to take this with Grand Couturier worth a saver at big odds.
Price gap there - it's not on the dirt track, BUT Arc winners have had a torrid time of it in the BReeders Cup. I will be backing Dylan though if price remains. NOTE - Spotlight comment provided by Nick Mordin - a one off so I take it as his opinion only - he is not the usual Spotlight writer
240 NAAS
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Gemini Lucy, 7/2 Carthalawn, 11/2 Dbest, 7/1 Ballyagran, 10/1 Coolgreaney.
Small field - positive write up - worth a chance at current odds - price gap takes on added significance in such a small field
250 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Galactic Star, 9/2 Red Gala, 6/1 Ivy Creek, 7/1 Crime Scene, Linas Selection, Regime, 20/1 Dash To The Front,
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Possible this may be tactical, but a steady pace did not prevent GALACTIC STAR (nap) complete his hat-trick last time, when Crime Scene was back in fourth, and he can successfully make the step up to Group company. Stable-companion Red Gala, who was set a huge amount to do last time, also looks as if he has more to offer.[AC]
Price gap certainly there - Ryan Moore in the saddle, but I may not back Galactic star for the following reasons - on a 4 timer - a winning sequence which will end soon =- step up to group company too will make the task more difficult. I am though taken by Ryan Moore who is a class act.
Good to soft ground conditions are also offputting as is the fact this is a scoop 6 race
400 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Missit, 11/2 Shamayel, 8/1 Lady Deauville, Maramba, 10/1 Perfect Act, 12/1 Fanatical, 14/1 Hobby, 33/1 Miss Bootylishes, Serena´s Storm, Tamara Moon, 50/1 Clifton Dancer.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Barry Hills has been the trainer to follow in this Listed race with three winners, a second and a third in the last six years and his Shamayel, with the likelihood of better to come, is entitled to plenty of respect. However, if MISSIT is in the same form as she was last weekend it should not be necessary to look further for the winner. Lady Deauville may be the best each-way alternative.[FC]
Positive spotlight commentary - good price gap replicated in the early morning price market-negative - fillies race and the ladies can be a tad unpredictable with their minds on shopping and kittens
I've said it before, as a listed contest, price gaps take on added significance and strength because we're not dealing with dodge pots here!
COMMENT - it is unrealistic to expect all of the above to oblige - a busy SAturday means that you should use your discretion and draw up a short list of 1 or 2 price gappers from those which provide the most compelling case to back
EACH WAYS
Great run of late and hope it continues - keeping selections to 3 ensures I opt for the better candiidates
700 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Torrens, 5/2 Nawamees, 7/2 History Boy, 8/1 Drizzi, 14/1 Maria Antonia, 16/1 Oscarshall, 25/1 Escoffier, 33/1 Gateland, Zaffeu, 66/1 Itsy Bitsy, Star Berry, 250/1 Taran Tregarth.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With no obvious front-runner in the field this could develop into a muddling contest, but for all that it is still hard to look beyond the top four in the weights despite all of them appearing best held up. History Boy’s win here back in the summer is still fresh in the memory, but on more recent form TORRENS is a safer option than either Nawamees or Drizzi.[GN]
4 before the 14\1 shows us where to look - Drizzi could place here if one of the top 3 fail to give their running
310 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Cantabilly, Full House, 4/1 Grecian Groom, 9/2 Leamington Lad, 13/2 Bureaucrat, 14/1 Dune Raider, 16/1 Take A Mile, 25/1 Voir Dire, 33/1 Tora Petcha.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: FULL HOUSE will appreciate this drop in class after running in top handicaps on the Flat. A strong-traveller who should be suited by these conditions, he can see off Cantabilly and Leamington Lad. [AA]
9 in the field - 3 the place - 5 before 14/1 - Leamington Lad each way for me
420 STRATFORD
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Bremen, 5/2 Shore Thing, 11/2 With Speed, 12/1 Conservation, 14/1 Sunset Boulevard, 20/1 Magic Rush, 33/1 Marker, Raise Again, The Cayterers, 40/1 King´s Fable, 50/1 Indian Wizard, 66/1 Champion De Sou, Tamworth, 100/1 Chipchenko.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BREMEN (nap) ran a decent horse close on his hurdling debut and can get off the mark here. Shore Thing looks the main danger, while With Speed can't be ruled out.
Shore thing is at an each way price in this maiden hurdle where I'm always keen to take the fav on
FOOTY
Concentration today on the Man Utd match I think - I will give Middlesburgh a 1.5 goal start at 1.67 odds. I cannot see Boro doing much from an attacking perspective.
I will be laying Celtic at current odds of 1.23 with an eye to trading if the odds increase during the first half. After mid week European excersions last time, they were lucky to beat Gretna and Motherwell may keep this close early doors. The odds are such that we won't lose much in liability should Celtic score early ( which I'm not expecting)
I will go for the over 2.5 goal trade at Portsmouth v West Ham - I see goals in this - 2 at least will enable me to trade out of my bet
Friday 26 October 2007
26 OCT
Nota Liberata placed at 3/1 as I suspected, What Katie Did won at 7/4 for Jamie Spencer, and Bold Adventure won at 6/4, obviously had one more win in him!Downhiller came 2nd at 16/1, again a drifter but if you played then you'd be happy. Albarino won at 5/1 making this a cracking day - why can't they all be like this?
PRICE GAPPERS
240 AYR
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Plenty of dead wood on show here and it will be disappointing if KALDOUN KINGDOM (nap) can't gain compensation for his luckless effort at Nottingham last time. Chivola and the lightly raced Rio Sabotini could prove best of the rest.[PSm] Also " ahead of the handicapper" - very healthy price gap but only concern is good to soft ground which might deteriorate ,and the fact this is a 2 year old nursery - a form of handicap.At odds against though, worth chancing 355 DONCASTER BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Kahara, 8/1 Estate, 12/1 Ainama, Dium Mac, 14/1 According To Pete, Casual Affair, Hot Diamond, Lets Roll, Prince Sabaah, 16/1 Dar Es Salaam, Whenever, 20/1 Mighty Moon, Traprain, 25/1 Altilhar, Dhehdaah, Mister Arjay, Mister Completely, 33/1 Linden Lime, Trance, 50/1 Historic Place .
|
Thursday 25 October 2007
25th OCT
Quiet day yesterday - Blue Zenith won -Musical Script a no bet for me - I hope you see the differnce between a proper price gapper with attendant extreme positive comments from Spotlight and Musical script with its "shoulds" and "ifs"
PRICE GAPPERS
220 LUDLOW
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Nota Liberata, 100/30 Mujahaz, 7/2 Torba, 6/1 Tension Point, 10/1 Gunner´s View, 14/1 Rosie´s Glory, Stagehand, 33/1 Leprechaun´s Gold, Salto Chico, 100/1 Awe, Converti, Homecroft Boy.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It looked a better race in which NOTA LIBERATA finished a clear third at Kelso and he's the one to beat, with George Moore a very rare visitor to these parts. An error-free round could see Torba offer most resistance
Mujahaz is a bit too near to warrant this beinga templated price gapper bet but there are grounds for backing the horse, namely the long trip to Ludlow and "he's the one to beat" - I'd be more confident in this as a place only bet as I am concerned with Torba and Mujahaz's proximity to the selection price wise
650 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 What Katie Did, 7/2 Stevie Thunder, 13/2 What´s For Tea, 8/1 Deckguard, Oli James, 10/1 Thomas Malory, 14/1 Reel Star, Weet By Far, 20/1 Emef Princess, 25/1 Bahia Palace, Duneen Dream, 33/1 Spoilt Madame.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It's hard to get away from WHAT KATIE DID as she boasts a genuine attitude, the highest BHA figure and acts well on the surface. The unexposed Stevie Thunder can chase her home
"it is hard to get away from " and "looks set for a big run" are wholly positive. Jamie Spencer on board - had a back problem yesterday which may throw a question mark about Jamie giing 100% today so it may be worth seeing how he copes with his earlier rides before wading in. Again not a strict price gapper bet because of the close proximity of Stevie Thunder. Ahould Jamie be ok today, What KAtie Did , at the price ,may be worth a bet
920 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Bold Adventure, 6/1 Three Boars, 8/1 Golano, Scutch Mill, 10/1 Black Mogul, 12/1 Mighty Kitchener, Papradon, Theflyingscottie, Yab Adee, 100/1 New Diamond.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Most of these need to be played late which makes prominent racer Black Mogul all the more interesting from stall 1 under Francis Norton. However, hat-trick seeking BOLD ADVENTURE (nap) is probably still ahead of the handicapper.[AM]
Yes it's one of those - a multiple handicap winner installed as favourite again. A 7 lb rise this time - "probably still ahead of the handicapper" is a positive. As with previous examples, it's a matter of guaging if this is the race where the winning sequence will end as with each race the weight increases bringing the rest of the field closer, or whether, indeed, the horse is sufficiiently ahead of the handicapper to enable him to get the hatrick. It's up to you! - build up a case to back or lay
COMMENT
Again no ideal price gappers today - those above are worthy of further investigation but each has a niggle
EACH WAY
2 selections yesterday with one winner at 11/4
410 BRIGHTON
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Yaddree, 9/4 City Stable, 6/1 Downhiller, Oberlin, 10/1 Dandy Erin, 12/1 Driven, 16/1 Muharjam, Ten Pole Tudor, 40/1 Iron Cross, 66/1 Dance Easily, Highly Regal.
4 before 10\1 hint that these 4 look good for a place. From an each way perspective I will chance Downhiller
505 LUDLOW
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Kova Hall, 7/2 Glimmer Of Light, 4/1 Mr Bigglesworth, Roussea, 5/1 Albarino, 20/1 Iaskofyou, 33/1 Layasar, Working Late.
A 5 horse race with 3 the place - I'll chance Albarino each waY
PRICE GAPPERS
220 LUDLOW
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Nota Liberata, 100/30 Mujahaz, 7/2 Torba, 6/1 Tension Point, 10/1 Gunner´s View, 14/1 Rosie´s Glory, Stagehand, 33/1 Leprechaun´s Gold, Salto Chico, 100/1 Awe, Converti, Homecroft Boy.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It looked a better race in which NOTA LIBERATA finished a clear third at Kelso and he's the one to beat, with George Moore a very rare visitor to these parts. An error-free round could see Torba offer most resistance
Mujahaz is a bit too near to warrant this beinga templated price gapper bet but there are grounds for backing the horse, namely the long trip to Ludlow and "he's the one to beat" - I'd be more confident in this as a place only bet as I am concerned with Torba and Mujahaz's proximity to the selection price wise
650 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 What Katie Did, 7/2 Stevie Thunder, 13/2 What´s For Tea, 8/1 Deckguard, Oli James, 10/1 Thomas Malory, 14/1 Reel Star, Weet By Far, 20/1 Emef Princess, 25/1 Bahia Palace, Duneen Dream, 33/1 Spoilt Madame.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It's hard to get away from WHAT KATIE DID as she boasts a genuine attitude, the highest BHA figure and acts well on the surface. The unexposed Stevie Thunder can chase her home
"it is hard to get away from " and "looks set for a big run" are wholly positive. Jamie Spencer on board - had a back problem yesterday which may throw a question mark about Jamie giing 100% today so it may be worth seeing how he copes with his earlier rides before wading in. Again not a strict price gapper bet because of the close proximity of Stevie Thunder. Ahould Jamie be ok today, What KAtie Did , at the price ,may be worth a bet
920 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Bold Adventure, 6/1 Three Boars, 8/1 Golano, Scutch Mill, 10/1 Black Mogul, 12/1 Mighty Kitchener, Papradon, Theflyingscottie, Yab Adee, 100/1 New Diamond.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Most of these need to be played late which makes prominent racer Black Mogul all the more interesting from stall 1 under Francis Norton. However, hat-trick seeking BOLD ADVENTURE (nap) is probably still ahead of the handicapper.[AM]
Yes it's one of those - a multiple handicap winner installed as favourite again. A 7 lb rise this time - "probably still ahead of the handicapper" is a positive. As with previous examples, it's a matter of guaging if this is the race where the winning sequence will end as with each race the weight increases bringing the rest of the field closer, or whether, indeed, the horse is sufficiiently ahead of the handicapper to enable him to get the hatrick. It's up to you! - build up a case to back or lay
COMMENT
Again no ideal price gappers today - those above are worthy of further investigation but each has a niggle
EACH WAY
2 selections yesterday with one winner at 11/4
410 BRIGHTON
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Yaddree, 9/4 City Stable, 6/1 Downhiller, Oberlin, 10/1 Dandy Erin, 12/1 Driven, 16/1 Muharjam, Ten Pole Tudor, 40/1 Iron Cross, 66/1 Dance Easily, Highly Regal.
4 before 10\1 hint that these 4 look good for a place. From an each way perspective I will chance Downhiller
505 LUDLOW
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Kova Hall, 7/2 Glimmer Of Light, 4/1 Mr Bigglesworth, Roussea, 5/1 Albarino, 20/1 Iaskofyou, 33/1 Layasar, Working Late.
A 5 horse race with 3 the place - I'll chance Albarino each waY
Tuesday 23 October 2007
24 OCT
Get in the Scarlett HEart - 4\1 at the off, I still backed it because of the Spotlight commentary! A great day all round really which would have been actually made better had Man Of Integrity beaten The jolly at Faryhouse. Another templated bet in Spanish Conquest ,but Seb Sanders earned his riding fee that's for sure!
PRICE GAPPERS
750 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Musical Script, 7/1 Divalini, Minnow, 9/1 Nistaki, 10/1 Desert Light, Jayanjay, Pamir, Triskaidekaphobia, 14/1 Patavium Prince, 16/1 Galaxy Of Stars, Lindbergh, 25/1 Green Lagonda.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A good opportunity for the consistent and in-form MUSICAL SCRIPT, who acts well over C&D with blinkers and rates the safest option.[BDO]
I'm always wary when price gapper favs aren't nearer to evens like yesterday's - that's not to say they won't win - this one has Seb Sanders on board, in this 5 furlong sprint.
"the safest option" -"likely to be thereabouts" - not really will be very hard to beat now is it. An evening race if there is confidence for the horse then that may be heeded
As it stands, a better each way race I feel
Possible in the first at Lingfield but the words 2 no world beater" hardly instil confidence
No real price gappers for me today at all
450 FOLKSTONE
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 The Iron Giant, 4/1 Kind Sir, 11/2 Buckland Gold, 6/1 Macgyver, 10/1 Batchworth Beau, French Direction, Kaikovra, 16/1 Bill Owen, 20/1 Action Spirit, 25/1 Sean Og, 33/1 Past Heritage.
Macgyver each way
620 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Melt, 7/2 Lady Vibeeka, 4/1 Kalligal, 11/2 Solo River, 6/1 Blue Zenith, 12/1 Mayview, 20/1 Ely Une, 25/1 Queens Mantle, 33/1 Forever Changes, 50/1 Seductive Witch.
5 before 6\1 - maiden fillies - chance on Blue Zenith each way
Not the best day's racing race type wise
PRICE GAPPERS
750 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Musical Script, 7/1 Divalini, Minnow, 9/1 Nistaki, 10/1 Desert Light, Jayanjay, Pamir, Triskaidekaphobia, 14/1 Patavium Prince, 16/1 Galaxy Of Stars, Lindbergh, 25/1 Green Lagonda.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A good opportunity for the consistent and in-form MUSICAL SCRIPT, who acts well over C&D with blinkers and rates the safest option.[BDO]
I'm always wary when price gapper favs aren't nearer to evens like yesterday's - that's not to say they won't win - this one has Seb Sanders on board, in this 5 furlong sprint.
"the safest option" -"likely to be thereabouts" - not really will be very hard to beat now is it. An evening race if there is confidence for the horse then that may be heeded
As it stands, a better each way race I feel
Possible in the first at Lingfield but the words 2 no world beater" hardly instil confidence
No real price gappers for me today at all
450 FOLKSTONE
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 The Iron Giant, 4/1 Kind Sir, 11/2 Buckland Gold, 6/1 Macgyver, 10/1 Batchworth Beau, French Direction, Kaikovra, 16/1 Bill Owen, 20/1 Action Spirit, 25/1 Sean Og, 33/1 Past Heritage.
Macgyver each way
620 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Melt, 7/2 Lady Vibeeka, 4/1 Kalligal, 11/2 Solo River, 6/1 Blue Zenith, 12/1 Mayview, 20/1 Ely Une, 25/1 Queens Mantle, 33/1 Forever Changes, 50/1 Seductive Witch.
5 before 6\1 - maiden fillies - chance on Blue Zenith each way
Not the best day's racing race type wise
23rd OCT235 FAIRYHOUSE
High standing won at 4/6 and ocean de moulin won at 5/4 which was a nice price for a small field event
Brave bugsy was 13/2 in the betting forecast yet went off at 20/1 - had i known that earlier he wouldn't have been a bet! Ochre Bay 3rd at 8/1 for each way with Sine dei unplaced
PRICE GAPPERS
We'll take High standing yesterday as one of the templated price gappers - the ideal bets that don't come along that often - the strike rate for templated bets is fantastic
Mention for Giant eagle in the first at fairyhouse, but this is a maiden hurdle and i have seen, time and time again, these nailed on shorties come 2nd or 3rd, probably a good race to attack from an each way perspective.
220 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Scarlett Heart, 5/1 Calloff The Search, 8/1 Davaye, Foreland Sands, 10/1 Xalted, 12/1 Almondillo, Savanagh Forest, 14/1 Eastern Princess, Inkjet, 16/1 Sherjawy, Tang, 33/1 Mango Piccle.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Calloff The Search is better than his last Leicester run suggests and he should go well, but SCARLETT HEART will appreciate this drop in grade and may have too much class for today's opponents.[PSm]
Read what Spotlight has to say
Scarlett Heart
Pick of the weights here and will find this much easier than the handicaps she has been contesting; conditions shouldn´t be a problem and clearly the one to beat
Not a templated price gapper by any stretch, but at 5/2 early morning show may be worth a small interest. the drop in grade is the main reason for backing in this lowly seller, the price gap remains early doors but as you can guess this is a seller so any horse in this race is there for a reason. Still 5/2 is a decent enough price
450 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Spanish Conquest, 8/1 Zalkani, 10/1 War Of The Roses, Watchmaker, 12/1 Full Of Promise, Little Richard, Sopran Gath, Trevian, 16/1 Summer Bounty, 20/1 Mid Valley, 25/1 Safari Sundowner, 50/1 Coastal Breeze, Hey Presto, Mejhar.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SPANISH CONQUEST (nap) was clear of the third when chasing home subsequent winner Polyquest on his handicap debut and although he is 6lb higher this time, he is the one runner in the field open to plenty of improvement. Zalkani and War Of The Roses could provide the stiffest opposition.[PSm]
Now evens in the morning prices , one of those price gaps that stand out , napped by spotlight - I'm a little concerned there's no " will be very hard to beat2 etc. but you can't argue with the price gap
COMMENT - concern with ability to handle ground for Spanish Conquest but apart from that ticks all the boxes. Scarlett heart is more for those wanting to get a calculated risk at a relatively big price on the drop in grade doing the business
EACH WAY
one big drifter yesterday couldnt be accounted for.
I'll stick to my policy of selecting 3 only per day - hopefully it naturally selects the best 3
210 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Prince De Bersy, 3/1 Gaelic Present, 7/2 Mister Gloss, 9/2 Arafan, 8/1 Ask Oscar, 20/1 Fort Of Gold, 50/1 Mr Woodrow, 100/1 Blues Story, Mariday, Missy Moscow, Mrs Tweedy, River Fields, The Well Of Dreams.
5 before 20\1 look to be the ones to concentrate on ( future price drifts not withstanding)so any one of them should be competitive for a place so it'll be Mister Gloss eaach way for me
(hope I've chosen the right one to at least place)
240 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Warsaw Pact, 4/1 Jack Rolfe, Master Wells, 9/2 Qualify, 16/1 Go Johnny Go, 20/1 Definite Lynn, 33/1 Grand Sefton, Kiwi Royalty, 50/1 Silent City.
Again 4 before 16\1 should be involved - Jack rolfe each way for me although at 3/1 not an ideal each way price should WarsAW pact falter i think Jack could take advantage
235 FAIRYHOUSE
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Giant Eagle, 7/2 South Upper Street, 10/1 Man Of Integrity, 12/1 Tango Line, 16/1 Brewing Up A Storm, Capparoe Cross, 20/1 Cautious Gemini, Cutting Chrystal, Just Todd, 25/1 Breakfast On Pluto, Lisa´s Fancy, Whatsittoyou, 33/1 Oyster Queen, Ralphtown, 50/1 Emmy Supreme, Tom Wynn.
A maiden hurdle and an opportunity for some speculative each way punting - 2 in the one raace in Man of Intergrity and Tango line - should Giant Eagle or South upper street falter, I hope one of these 2 can take advantage
TWIN CYCLES
Successful yesterday with Ocean De Moulin - exeter looks the place to concetrate on today
310 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Nation State, 5/4 President Royal, 10/1 So Cloudy, 25/1 Thunder Child.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks a match. President Royal was tempting getting the weight but some ease underfoot could be important to him and that swings the pendulum in favour of NATION STATE, who appreciates some cut himself but does at least have a good-ground win to his name
first 2 in the betting here - small field - looks a 2 horse race
Brave bugsy was 13/2 in the betting forecast yet went off at 20/1 - had i known that earlier he wouldn't have been a bet! Ochre Bay 3rd at 8/1 for each way with Sine dei unplaced
PRICE GAPPERS
We'll take High standing yesterday as one of the templated price gappers - the ideal bets that don't come along that often - the strike rate for templated bets is fantastic
Mention for Giant eagle in the first at fairyhouse, but this is a maiden hurdle and i have seen, time and time again, these nailed on shorties come 2nd or 3rd, probably a good race to attack from an each way perspective.
220 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Scarlett Heart, 5/1 Calloff The Search, 8/1 Davaye, Foreland Sands, 10/1 Xalted, 12/1 Almondillo, Savanagh Forest, 14/1 Eastern Princess, Inkjet, 16/1 Sherjawy, Tang, 33/1 Mango Piccle.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Calloff The Search is better than his last Leicester run suggests and he should go well, but SCARLETT HEART will appreciate this drop in grade and may have too much class for today's opponents.[PSm]
Read what Spotlight has to say
Scarlett Heart
Pick of the weights here and will find this much easier than the handicaps she has been contesting; conditions shouldn´t be a problem and clearly the one to beat
Not a templated price gapper by any stretch, but at 5/2 early morning show may be worth a small interest. the drop in grade is the main reason for backing in this lowly seller, the price gap remains early doors but as you can guess this is a seller so any horse in this race is there for a reason. Still 5/2 is a decent enough price
450 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Spanish Conquest, 8/1 Zalkani, 10/1 War Of The Roses, Watchmaker, 12/1 Full Of Promise, Little Richard, Sopran Gath, Trevian, 16/1 Summer Bounty, 20/1 Mid Valley, 25/1 Safari Sundowner, 50/1 Coastal Breeze, Hey Presto, Mejhar.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SPANISH CONQUEST (nap) was clear of the third when chasing home subsequent winner Polyquest on his handicap debut and although he is 6lb higher this time, he is the one runner in the field open to plenty of improvement. Zalkani and War Of The Roses could provide the stiffest opposition.[PSm]
Now evens in the morning prices , one of those price gaps that stand out , napped by spotlight - I'm a little concerned there's no " will be very hard to beat2 etc. but you can't argue with the price gap
COMMENT - concern with ability to handle ground for Spanish Conquest but apart from that ticks all the boxes. Scarlett heart is more for those wanting to get a calculated risk at a relatively big price on the drop in grade doing the business
EACH WAY
one big drifter yesterday couldnt be accounted for.
I'll stick to my policy of selecting 3 only per day - hopefully it naturally selects the best 3
210 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Prince De Bersy, 3/1 Gaelic Present, 7/2 Mister Gloss, 9/2 Arafan, 8/1 Ask Oscar, 20/1 Fort Of Gold, 50/1 Mr Woodrow, 100/1 Blues Story, Mariday, Missy Moscow, Mrs Tweedy, River Fields, The Well Of Dreams.
5 before 20\1 look to be the ones to concentrate on ( future price drifts not withstanding)so any one of them should be competitive for a place so it'll be Mister Gloss eaach way for me
(hope I've chosen the right one to at least place)
240 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Warsaw Pact, 4/1 Jack Rolfe, Master Wells, 9/2 Qualify, 16/1 Go Johnny Go, 20/1 Definite Lynn, 33/1 Grand Sefton, Kiwi Royalty, 50/1 Silent City.
Again 4 before 16\1 should be involved - Jack rolfe each way for me although at 3/1 not an ideal each way price should WarsAW pact falter i think Jack could take advantage
235 FAIRYHOUSE
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Giant Eagle, 7/2 South Upper Street, 10/1 Man Of Integrity, 12/1 Tango Line, 16/1 Brewing Up A Storm, Capparoe Cross, 20/1 Cautious Gemini, Cutting Chrystal, Just Todd, 25/1 Breakfast On Pluto, Lisa´s Fancy, Whatsittoyou, 33/1 Oyster Queen, Ralphtown, 50/1 Emmy Supreme, Tom Wynn.
A maiden hurdle and an opportunity for some speculative each way punting - 2 in the one raace in Man of Intergrity and Tango line - should Giant Eagle or South upper street falter, I hope one of these 2 can take advantage
TWIN CYCLES
Successful yesterday with Ocean De Moulin - exeter looks the place to concetrate on today
310 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Nation State, 5/4 President Royal, 10/1 So Cloudy, 25/1 Thunder Child.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks a match. President Royal was tempting getting the weight but some ease underfoot could be important to him and that swings the pendulum in favour of NATION STATE, who appreciates some cut himself but does at least have a good-ground win to his name
first 2 in the betting here - small field - looks a 2 horse race
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