Tuesday 23 October 2007

23rd OCT235 FAIRYHOUSE

High standing won at 4/6 and ocean de moulin won at 5/4 which was a nice price for a small field event
Brave bugsy was 13/2 in the betting forecast yet went off at 20/1 - had i known that earlier he wouldn't have been a bet! Ochre Bay 3rd at 8/1 for each way with Sine dei unplaced

PRICE GAPPERS
We'll take High standing yesterday as one of the templated price gappers - the ideal bets that don't come along that often - the strike rate for templated bets is fantastic
Mention for Giant eagle in the first at fairyhouse, but this is a maiden hurdle and i have seen, time and time again, these nailed on shorties come 2nd or 3rd, probably a good race to attack from an each way perspective.
220 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Scarlett Heart, 5/1 Calloff The Search, 8/1 Davaye, Foreland Sands, 10/1 Xalted, 12/1 Almondillo, Savanagh Forest, 14/1 Eastern Princess, Inkjet, 16/1 Sherjawy, Tang, 33/1 Mango Piccle.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Calloff The Search is better than his last Leicester run suggests and he should go well, but SCARLETT HEART will appreciate this drop in grade and may have too much class for today's opponents.[PSm]
Read what Spotlight has to say
Scarlett Heart
Pick of the weights here and will find this much easier than the handicaps she has been contesting; conditions shouldn´t be a problem and clearly the one to beat
Not a templated price gapper by any stretch, but at 5/2 early morning show may be worth a small interest. the drop in grade is the main reason for backing in this lowly seller, the price gap remains early doors but as you can guess this is a seller so any horse in this race is there for a reason. Still 5/2 is a decent enough price
450 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Spanish Conquest, 8/1 Zalkani, 10/1 War Of The Roses, Watchmaker, 12/1 Full Of Promise, Little Richard, Sopran Gath, Trevian, 16/1 Summer Bounty, 20/1 Mid Valley, 25/1 Safari Sundowner, 50/1 Coastal Breeze, Hey Presto, Mejhar.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SPANISH CONQUEST (nap) was clear of the third when chasing home subsequent winner Polyquest on his handicap debut and although he is 6lb higher this time, he is the one runner in the field open to plenty of improvement. Zalkani and War Of The Roses could provide the stiffest opposition.[PSm]
Now evens in the morning prices , one of those price gaps that stand out , napped by spotlight - I'm a little concerned there's no " will be very hard to beat2 etc. but you can't argue with the price gap
COMMENT - concern with ability to handle ground for Spanish Conquest but apart from that ticks all the boxes. Scarlett heart is more for those wanting to get a calculated risk at a relatively big price on the drop in grade doing the business
EACH WAY
one big drifter yesterday couldnt be accounted for.
I'll stick to my policy of selecting 3 only per day - hopefully it naturally selects the best 3
210 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Prince De Bersy, 3/1 Gaelic Present, 7/2 Mister Gloss, 9/2 Arafan, 8/1 Ask Oscar, 20/1 Fort Of Gold, 50/1 Mr Woodrow, 100/1 Blues Story, Mariday, Missy Moscow, Mrs Tweedy, River Fields, The Well Of Dreams.
5 before 20\1 look to be the ones to concentrate on ( future price drifts not withstanding)so any one of them should be competitive for a place so it'll be Mister Gloss eaach way for me
(hope I've chosen the right one to at least place)
240 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Warsaw Pact, 4/1 Jack Rolfe, Master Wells, 9/2 Qualify, 16/1 Go Johnny Go, 20/1 Definite Lynn, 33/1 Grand Sefton, Kiwi Royalty, 50/1 Silent City.
Again 4 before 16\1 should be involved - Jack rolfe each way for me although at 3/1 not an ideal each way price should WarsAW pact falter i think Jack could take advantage
235 FAIRYHOUSE
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Giant Eagle, 7/2 South Upper Street, 10/1 Man Of Integrity, 12/1 Tango Line, 16/1 Brewing Up A Storm, Capparoe Cross, 20/1 Cautious Gemini, Cutting Chrystal, Just Todd, 25/1 Breakfast On Pluto, Lisa´s Fancy, Whatsittoyou, 33/1 Oyster Queen, Ralphtown, 50/1 Emmy Supreme, Tom Wynn.
A maiden hurdle and an opportunity for some speculative each way punting - 2 in the one raace in Man of Intergrity and Tango line - should Giant Eagle or South upper street falter, I hope one of these 2 can take advantage
TWIN CYCLES
Successful yesterday with Ocean De Moulin - exeter looks the place to concetrate on today
310 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Nation State, 5/4 President Royal, 10/1 So Cloudy, 25/1 Thunder Child.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks a match. President Royal was tempting getting the weight but some ease underfoot could be important to him and that swings the pendulum in favour of NATION STATE, who appreciates some cut himself but does at least have a good-ground win to his name
first 2 in the betting here - small field - looks a 2 horse race

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