Tuesday 16 October 2007

16/10

2 winners at 4/1. What happened in the maiden - another shock! 40/1 winner, 66/1 2nd and 200/1 3rd. I was right to take on the favs but wish I had been more adventurous regarding each way selections!
PRICE GAPPERS
510 LEicester

BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Plavius, 11/4 Tiger Dream, 3/1 Prime Exhibit, 10/1 Endless Luck, 20/1 Monterrico, Regal Best, 25/1 Nordic Commander, Red Leaves, 33/1 Charmel´s Lad, Gardes, 100/1 Buddy Holly, Festival Dreams .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Both Prime Exhibit and Tiger Dream still have a Racing Post Trophy entry, but all eyes will be on $9,200,000 buy PLAVIUS and he can continue the fine form of his yard.[AC]

Not a price gapper at all, with PRime exhibit now 2/1 , but interesting to read the Spotlight comment - a $9,200,000 purchase in Plavius! They've flopped before and are classic cases of short price based solely on reputation and no racing evidence. It looks 3 the field here ,and contradicting what I just said, Plavius may be worth an interest given the fact Godolphin wouldn't fork out that much for a horse who comes 2nd!

250 NEWCASTLE
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Collection, 7/1 Hampton Court, 8/1 Royal Applord, 9/1 Red Tarn, 12/1 Shanafarahan, 25/1 Patthepainter, Power Desert, 33/1 Roman Legion, Solar Spirit, 50/1 Cashmere Jack, 66/1 Manuka Bee, 100/1 Lekin Sedona, Paint Stripper .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hard to look past COLLECTION who has several big race entries and shaped with bags of promise on his debut. Royal Applaud and Red Tarn look good bets for the places if the newcomer Hampton Court ends up needing the experience.[GN]

Yes this is more like it - price gap is there ( now currently 1/2 and I wouldn't get involved any lower) , "Hard to look past" ticks the boxes for comments I want to see from Spotlight.
Collection
Good effort in face of tough task on debut in minor event at Salisbury in conditions similar to these behind a previous and progressive winner, never getting to him but pulling clear of an
80-rated maiden in third; normal improvement will make him very hard to beat.
Yes those words "very hard to beat" are clearly evident
NEGATIVES -a 13 runner class 5 maiden race is not out of the top draw. Collection is short priced based on one sole run and we have seen these fall by the way side in the past. We would be simply betting here on a replication of the sole outing or an improvement in the sole outing.
CONCLUSION - Seb Sanders is on board and as the jockeys tussle with JAmie Spencer continues, you can be assured Seb will ensure victory on those most obvious opportunities.
A win bet for me, with preference for a back before the race and lay off in increments in running


PRICE GAPPERS COMMENT - Collection pretty much fits the bill of a templated price gapper example, with a prominent price gap and the words "very hard to beat" without any ifs or buts.Alas another maiden race but worth chancing.
Plavius is NOT a price gapper selection at all with price gap 6/4 - - - 2/1 which is far too short. For a horse making his debut, backers will be swayed by the price tag of $9,200,000 - if that makes a strong argument for backing then go ahead, but be mindful there are 2 other horses in close proximity betting wise, and the horse doesn't know his price tag!

EACH WAYS
300 HUNT
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Prince De Bersy, 3/1 Ouragan De Prairie, 9/2 Croon, 5/1 Mr Wiseguy, 14/1 Calusa Caldera, 20/1 Viennchee Run, 25/1 Eau De Vie, 50/1 Tickford Abbey, 100/1 Herninski, Spiritwind.
5 before 14/1 indicate the race should, in the betting forecasters eyes, be fought out between these. Mr Wise Guy for me each way
340 LEICESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Sudoor, 9/4 Lady Gloria, 4/1 Marzelline, 9/2 Chantilly Tiffany, 6/1 Turban Heights, 100/1 Poppets Sweetlove, 200/1 Tokyo Jo, 500/1 Little Darlin .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: LADY GLORIA (nap) has a little to find on ratings but, most importantly, she has conditions in her favour and can be relied upon to give her running and that is likely to count for plenty here in a race where most of her rivals have questions marks hanging over them. Turban Heights looked a filly going places here last time and could give her most to do. [GN]

5 horses before the outsiders will fight this out. -Marzelline each way - Sudoor looks to have surrendered favouratism early doors
220 NEWCASTLE
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Hallingdal, 2/1 African Flight, 6/1 Misplaced Fortune, 16/1 Caffari, Snickers First, 25/1 Floral Guest, 33/1 Lu´s Woman, Mchepple, Reel Cool, 50/1 Ice Choice.
Misplaced fortune each way for me - the bettingforecaster foresees a 3 horse race in essence

TWIN CYCLES
I just knew if I took a chance in a maiden it would come back to haunt me.!
500 HUNT
I'm asking for trouble again getting involved in a bumper.
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Over Sixty, 2/1 Flemish Invader, 5/2 Doubly Sharp, 14/1 Punjabi Army, 20/1 Palos Conti, 50/1 Radmores Revenge, Shampers .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Over Sixty looks a likely type from a top yard but DOUBLY SHARP does have some experience behind him and this ground could be more suitable than on his debut at Newbury, where a big run was evidently expected judged by the support he attracted (8-1 from 22-1).[AWJ]
Over Sixty and Flemish invader could be the ones here - I am mindful of the proximity of Doubly sharp but hope I can get a winner from the 2 I have selected

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