Tuesday 9 October 2007

9/10

I wish I’d noticed Me Fein was a Barney Curley horse – I would have never put it up – they either win by half a mile or bomb out, and the latter happened yesterday. Me Fein’s last run was the big gamble that is synonymous with Barney Curley.. Baddam and Geordie land were both terrible.Elsewhere Chinwag came nowhere but Just Bond won at an inflated 8/1 which was very welcome after a few 2nd places recently.A shockingly bad day’s races yesterday – check out the number of “ shock” results.For the twin cycles, both selections finished first and second ,and both at over evens which was pleasing. I am getting some twin progressive cycle software made by a reader and will keep you informed.
PRICE GAPPERS
Today looks just as bad as yesterday, probably the transition to jumps and the end of the flat heralding races full of donkeys!
200 CATTERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Paddy Jack, 9/2 Atephobia, 11/2 Princess Rhianna, 13/2 Bourbon Balistic, 7/1 Swindon Town Flyer, 10/1 Smarterthanuthink, 14/1 Mr Funshine, 50/1 Captain Turbot, Magnushomestwo,



SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Paddy Jack sets the standard here but the widest draw isn't ideal and he's taken on with PRINCESS RHIANNA, who may have found her latest run coming too quick after her promising debut and she is well worth another chance.
A 5 furlong maiden .Price gap 11/8 - - - 5/1. Wide draw. The price of the fav here, who has had plenty of chances ( which can be viewed positively –plenty of experience, or negatively – plenty of chances!) is too short for me. The only saving grace is the fact Seb Sanders is onboard, and after Jamie Spencer’s poor day yesterday, losing on 3 favs, one at ¼, we can hope that Seb will try his best on market leaders but that’s just not enough for me. An obvious place only opportunity.
340 Leic
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Coppergirl, 4/1 Cherri Fosfate, 5/1 Leprechaun´s Gold, 13/2 Go Dude, 8/1 Hester Brook, 14/1 Everyman, Hawk Gold, 20/1 Snake Hips, 33/1 Hard As Iron, Valeesha, 50/1 Tenterhooks, 66/1 Fashion Accessory.



SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CHERRI FOSFATE improved with the longer trip last time and looks a solid enough proposition against the usual mixed bag of opponents. Go Dude should be competitive but he seems very delicate, withdrawn with vet's certificates three times in recent weeks, and couldn't be a strong fancy if turning out after having quite a hard race yesterda
Again,a good example of one we can dismiss by looking at Spotlight who doesn’t even mention the horse. I know with this that you have to have a degree of trust with the Spotlight journalist but to not even consider the shortie here must sound some alarm bells.This is a class 6 seller as well.
540 Leic
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Axiom, 4/1 Laura´s Best, 5/1 Cinnamon Hill, 12/1 Joyful Tears, Vigo Bridge, 33/1 Naledi, 50/1 Samahir, 66/1 Katie Coniston, 100/1 Arthur´s Edge,



SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: AXIOM is well worth a try at this shorter trip and is the one to beat, with Cinnamon Hill preferred of the remainder, though the latter didn't behave herself very well before her debut at Lingfield.[EMW]
Currently 1 / 2 with next bet 7/2, this is another maiden race
Axiom
Raced only at 1m, used to be held up but made the running the last twice, solid form in defeat both times; disappointing he hasn´t been able to win so far but well worth the try at shorter and could be hard to peg back
The horse has had plenty of chances but, most recently has come 2nd twice. This is a positive as it shows he’s at the business end on a regular basis.Ready preference I think would be for the each way option on Laura’s Best . Axiom is too short for me in a maiden although he represents the most likely winner under Jimmy Fortune. A probable back before the off and lay in running trade for me under the assumption the horse is there at the race end
355 TIPPERARY
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Shuil Aris, 11/2 Charlie Yardbird, 7/1 Albanov, 8/1 Gripit N Tipit, Summer Soul, 10/1 Major Finnegan, Mill House Girl, 12/1 Jomacomi, 14/1 Brize Norton, Conquistadores, Lazio, 16/1 Call Me Max, Portraitist, 20/1 House Of Blues, 25/1 Ooh Cha Cha, Oscar What, Well Dr Lova, 33/1 Enchanted Breeze, Irish Mol, Rocca´s Boy,



SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SHUIL ARIS has a very high rating for a maiden, and will take all the beating here if she can reproduce a performance in keeping with her official mark of 128. Winner of a valuable confined bumper first time out at the 2006 Punchestown Festival, she made the frame in maidens on her first two starts over hurdles last season, and then returned from a break to run two excellent races in the company of the season's best novice mares. She split multiple winners Grangeclare Lark and Chomba Womba at Fairyhouse in April, and though beaten more decisively by the excellent Grangeclare Lark at Punchestown she again had some useful types behind.
Again, we face the dilemma – why is the horse 6/4 in such a large field – really must be fancied to win in a 20 runner race. BUT would you back a 6/4 shot to beat 19 opponents over obstacles?
I will take a chance on this one today, largely due to the write up “ very high rating”, “ will take all the beating”

PRICE GAPPER COMMENT
A wholly unappetising selection today, largely in maiden races. BUT, interestingly, favourites stats tend to correct themselves the day after a day of outsiders winning (Monday) – we have this in our favour today. It’s just Shuil Aris for me today, although such a big field will put some off, at least we’ll be assured of an odds against price
EACH WAY
Glad Just Bond obliged yesterday at decent odds.
400 CATTERICK
MR Mischief each way – again Seb Sanders on board and at an each way price
150 FOLKSTONE
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Hold The Gold, 9/4 Compton Ridge, 6/1 Glittering Prize, 10/1 Redarsene, Spiritonthemount, 20/1 Street Devil, 33/1 Desert Thistle, 50/1 Muharjam, 100/1 Jermajesty, My Flame, Romford Car Two, Ryan´s Rock.
Glittering prize each way looks the obvious candidate
540 LEICESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Axiom, 4/1 Laura´s Best, 5/1 Cinnamon Hill, 12/1 Joyful Tears, Vigo Bridge, 33/1 Naledi, 50/1 Samahir, 66/1 Katie Coniston, 100/1 Arthur´s Edge,

Laura’s Best each way
I think I’ll limit the each ways to 3 a day max – this way I will come up with what I think are the 3 best.
TWIN CYCLES
150 FOLKSTONE
one cycle to close today and Hold the Gold and Compton ridge look likely candidates at current prices of 10/11 ( as near to evens as you’re going to get) and 3/1 with the 10/11 shot going onto the open cycle – he has the best draw which should help our cause over. Jamie Spencer in the plate – surely he won’t cock this one up like he did yesterday

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