3 OCTOBER

Lord Peter Flint – I think the technical term is – pissed it! Very impressive. Tobar Suil Lady was equally as impressive at 11/8 .Tropical Strait was superb at 8/11 and again won with ease – (why can’t every day’s winners win this comfortably?)

Hawksbury Heights an unlucky 4^th ,just outside the place payouts for each way, again Tsaroxy 4^th, Sea Admiral came 8^th, Atlantic Coast 3^rd at 7/2 and Fisher Bridge went backwards – poor day for each ways.

Break even in the Asians with a 1-0 to United. I predicted the correct score but selected the wrong asian bet, giving Roma +1 instead of Man Utd –0.5. It’s a learning curve!

PRICE GAPPERS

Very happy with yesterdays price gappers ,especially 2 maidens and a consistent handicapper

210 NEWCASTLE

BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Kiwi Bay, 7/2 Creative, 5/1 Moment´s Notice, 6/1 East Coast Girl, 10/1 Evette, 12/1 Emef Princess, 14/1 Montefiore, 16/1 Maid Of Lamancha, 40/1 Dolly No Hair, 66/1 Big Slick, 100/1 Howe´s Jack.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: None of these set much of a standard on last-time-out form but KIWI BAY did a lot better the time before and is given another chance to fulfil that promise.[RA]

A no bet this one for me – a class 6 maiden and regressive form – 25 – the 5^th place was in another class 6 maiden. Price gap 5/4 - -- 7/2. You’ll get a good price relative to price gappers generally.

310 KEMPTON

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Hamish McGonagall, 4/1 Drill Sergeant, 7/1 Cathedral Walk, 8/1 Island Music, 9/1 Power Desert, 10/1 Blindspin, Resounding Glory, 25/1 Princess Maria, 33/1 Bellas Chicas, Piccolo Pete, 50/1 Capone, Glamoroso, Senora´s Best.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: HAMISH MCGONAGALL was left with too much to do last time after trouble in running and still looks well capable of winning a race like this. Others have shown a bit of promise but the Johnston-trained newcomer Drill Sergeant is feared more.[RA]

POSITIVES – now 11/10 in the morning prices with 9/2 next best.. Has had 3 runs for this Hamish McGonagall

Clear form chance on close third in good Haydock maiden (first run for five months) early last month, giving the impression this extra furlong would suit; below-form favourite at Ayr 13 days ago but did not get the room to show what he was capable of andit looked as if he stayed; leading contender. maiden and had excuses last time for 4^th place.

NEGATIVES – a bit unnerving that the majority of price gappers appear in maidens. Here we have 3 debutants and 5 one time out runners open to improvement.

CONCLUSION – Kevin Darley in the plate, and I will chance at 11/10 especially, in the hope the horse gives his true running today in another unsuitable (ideally) race

350 NOTTINGHAM

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Forsyte Saga, 4/1 Almamia, 6/1 Madame Hoi, 7/1 Ethereal Flame, 12/1 Secret Gem, Toll Gate, 16/1 Classic Legend, 20/1 Sendefaa, 25/1 Rahaan, 50/1 Italian Goddess.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Forsyte Saga sets the standard but was beaten by a 77-rated rival last time and could well be vulnerable to an above-average newcomer. The impeccably bred ALMAMIA, who's entered in next year's Irish Oaks, could be just that.[GW]

5/4 now this morning and 5/1 next best augers well for yet another maiden favourite. 2 second places on the trot .Spotlight tells us that Forsyte Saga “could well be vulnerable to an above average newcomer”

Forsyte Saga

Caught a live one in Sunday´s easy Ascot winner Ibn Khaldun on her debut and did nothing wrong from the front at Beverley last time; comes here in preference to a Group race at the weekend and sets the standard.

Ibn Khaldun has since proved to be a very smart horse so this form is a positive.

Already this morning Classic Legend is trading at 8/1 ( notice its betting forecast price)

In an ideal world Forsyte Saga would not be a bet, but I am taken by the analysis of her last 2 races, and against my better judgement will opt for the win here. I suspect the best bet will be the place only here. We simply don’t know how good the newcomers are, but Forsyte Saga has experience

200 SALISBURY

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Doctor Fremantle, 5/1 Yathreb, 8/1 Desiderio, 10/1 Sleepy Hollow, 14/1 Banquet, High Dee Jay, Ragamuffin Man, Simone Martini, 16/1 Look Here, 20/1 Daddy´s Boy, 25/1 Zen Factor, 33/1 Slip, 50/1 Promised Gold, Tara´s Garden, 66/1 Bravo Bolivar, 100/1 Fort Hull.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The Stoute 2yos are running well and DOCTOR FREMANTLE (nap) can give the stable a win in a division of this race for the third successive year. Yathreb did not progress as expected from his first race and will be pressed to confirm latest form with Sleepy Hollow

Doctor Fremantle is the nap of the meeting.

Doctor Fremantle

Dewhurst, Racing Post and Irish Derby entry who made a promising start when accounting for all except more experienced market rival Hawaana in 7f maiden at Leicester; form not really worked out but middle-distance pedigree suggests he will relish this step up in trip and he must be high on the list; stable won a division of this race for last two year

Future engagements suggest a good run expected.

NEGATIVES - a 16 runner maiden and a once raced short priced favourite – 6 debutants and 6 one time out runners make for a bet requiring a lot of faith in the favourite’s abilities.

Early morning price 8/13 - - - -5/1 is a positive that’s for sure but the question remains , do we want to back a one time out maiden against 15 others , 6 debutants and 6 one time out runners?

CONCLUSION – not for me this one – preference for the place only ,or an in running play for me - Good to soft ground doesn’t help make the case for Fremantle

230 SALISBURY

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Meer Kat, 4/1 Aboriginie, 7/1 Huzzah, 8/1 Fiume, 10/1 Seventh Hill, 20/1 Driven, Karate Queen, 25/1 Daisy Nook, Mazara, 33/1 Cape Rock, Manyriverstocross, Mista Rossa, 50/1 Nemo Spirit, Sarah´s Boy, Whitcombe Spirit, 100/1 Veras Joy.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Only Huzzah of the form principals is proven on a soft surface, but he is relatively exposed and it may be worth chancing MEER KAT's ability to handle the conditions. His form looks very solid.[FC]

“IT may be worth chancing” – no thanks – I want to see much more confidence especially in a 16 runner maiden on good to soft!

555 SLIGO

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Rinroe, 11/2 Conor´s Secret, 6/1 The Harrier Man, 8/1 Boleybawn Quikstar, 10/1 December Sun, 12/1 Mrs Brophy, Tip On, 14/1 Caher Lass, Leanne, 20/1 Arctic Mick, Dr Tenderfoot, 25/1 Galmon Error, Lakeshore Lodge, Livinginhope, Oyster Queen, Pipers Blaze,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: RINROE should have the resources to win a maiden hurdle at this venue without the benefit of a recent outing or previous experience over hurdles

Heavy ground – no recent outing – or previous experience –maiden hurdle – arrrrghhhh! No thanks!

EACH WAY

Poor day yesterday with a couple of 4^th places losing the place payout on the each ways

820 KEMPTON

BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Dart, 3/1 Trump Call, 4/1 Top Tiger, 5/1 Driving Miss Suzie, 9/1 Princess Danehill, 12/1 Yab Adee, 33/1 Ramvaswani, Stroppi Poppi, 50/1 Keagles, Versatile, 66/1 Pearl Of Esteem, 200/1 Balfour House.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TRUMP CALL has been running well in better contests of late and gets the vote. Top Tiger has questions to answer but is entitled to be thereabouts on his best form, while Dart represents a jockey and trainer combination that has a 43% strike-rate this season (3-7) and is the potential improver.[SR

Dart now 4/1 ( can be seen as a negative) but if remaining at that price is a good each way bet for me, swayed by the mighty Kerrin MCEvoy in the plate – I was particularly taken by some of his rides recently

440 NEWCASTLE

BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Kentucky Boy, 7/2 Hora, 6/1 Toboggan Lady, 10/1 Dansimar, Group Force, 14/1 Ergo, Hook Money, President Dan, 25/1 Blue Jet, Forrest Flyer, Foxxy, Troialini, 33/1 Currahee, Firestorm, 50/1 Starbougg.

Toboggan lady the obvious one for me here each way

Slim pickings due to the race types mostly, and ground concerns at Sligo and Salisbury

TWIN PROGRESSIVE CYCLES

BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Redford, 15/8 Oberlin, 7/1 Al Mogeer, 10/1 Full Speed, Iron Cross, 25/1 Hyper Viper, Moscow Oznick, Social Spirit, 33/1 Endeavor, Laterly, 40/1 Eton Fable, Harrison´s Star, 50/1 Bouggler, Harlequinn Danseur, Jontobel, Larkfield.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Oberlin and REDFORD looked way above average last time out and could easily have this between them, with slight preference for Michael Bell's runner who showed his form on turf.[RA]

First 2 in the betting here should give us a run

FOOTY

Pity I chose the wrong asian handicap bet yesterday having forecast the 1-0 Man Utd – it’s a learning curve.

Tonight sees more Champions League action where, barring Lyon last night, generally backing the odds ons pays.

I am taken tonight by Schalke’s odds away to Rosenburg who held a Chelsea team full of problems to a draw. I’ll scratch that game from a form perspective and chance Schalke here. The obvious angle to play this game for me is to back with a view to trading in running if Schalke score first.

I can’t get an angle on the Valencia v Chelsea match – it won’t be a goal fest for the Londoners and perhaps a way into this match is via the Asians again. I think I’ll give Chelsea a half goal start

Chelsea +0&+0.5

If Chelsea win £98

If the match is a draw £49

If Valencia win -£100

for £100 standard stake

This is dependent on the team news for Chelski – I would want to see Drogba in the team, along with Terry, Shaun Wright Phillips as well. It’s a bit of a risk given the current predicament at Chelsea but we’re hoping for a draw in what will be a tense affair and , results going tits up, a goodbye to Avram “ taxi for Mr.” Grant