30/4 MARKET MOVERS

It's been difficult doing this recently with a couple of real pain in the arse betting systems which take ages to track daily, but I'll try this out now
200 REDCAR
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Countrywide Ice, Lady Lube Rye, 8/1 Arctic Destiny, Johnnyleary, Oondiri, 10/1 Ignatieff, Miss Dreamy, Rio Caribe, 12/1 Bring Sweets, Flow Chart, 16/1 Loss Leader.
Ignatieff 4/1

230 REDCAR
BETTING FORECAST: 100/30 Out The Ring, 7/2 Gasparilla, 5/1 Blue Rum, 7/1 Ginger Ted, Musiara, 8/1 House Of Frills, 14/1 Lairy, 16/1 Needs A Treat, 33/1 Mostofitleft, Strange Fiction, Ze Finale.

Out the ring 5/4

245 FOLK
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Billy Beetroot, 100/30 Rathlin Light, 5/1 Chris´s Jem, 6/1 Fatal Attraction, 8/1 Filemot, 12/1 Aegean King, 14/1 Trade Price, 20/1 Louie´s Lad, 25/1 Sandy Par, Tightrope, 33/1 Bilboa, Rightcar Lewis, Sircozy, Wicksy Creek.
Sircozy 14/1

330 HEREFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Alrafid, 5/2 Cruise Director, 11/2 Gan Eagla, 6/1 Mad Jack Duncan, 12/1 Fortification, Sarrococca, 16/1 Miss Phoebe, 20/1 Hawk´s Landing, 40/1 Decree Nisi, 66/1 Manolo.
Sarracocca 8/1

340 REDCAR
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Alicante, Rising Kheleyf, 9/2 Cornish Castle, 7/1 Tarzan, 10/1 Lost In Paris, 14/1 Embsay Crag, Paquerettza.
Embsay Crag 8/1

345 PUNCHESTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Ainama, 6/1 Uimhiraceathair, 8/1 Jessies Dream, Solstice Knight, 10/1 Leading Run, 14/1 Consulate, Noble Prince, Pontiac, Uncle Tom Cobley, 16/1 Erritt Lake, Harro The Hero, King Ralph, 20/1 Ocean Cowboy, 25/1 Glaczer Flyer, Grinder, Teve Na Mara, Tulachsarain, 50/1 Bellurgan Boy, Coilog Nowrnever, Pat The Baker, 66/1 Cloran Jack, 100/1 Cloda´s Choice, Our Western Boy, Sir Alex.
Jessies Dream 6/4

430 FOLK
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 King Of Defence, 4/1 Fly By Nelly, 5/1 Bussell Along, 7/1 Kyle Of Bute, 9/1 Golden Pool, 10/1 Cavendish Road, Mount Ella, 14/1 Crystallize, Kings On The Roof, 20/1 Josiah Bartlett, 25/1 Princess Rebecca, 33/1 Kamanja, Rose Of Coma,
Fav 4/5

440 HEREFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Lepido, 6/1 Gofannon, Ptibaby, 8/1 Gilded Youth, High Carol, Karashar, Ponchatrain, 12/1 Ben Ami, Boogie Dancer, Chilbury Hill, Segal, 25/1 Magpie, Robbmaa, 40/1 Miss Ladybird.

Segal 8/1

450 REDCAR

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 La Capriosa, 5/2 Chocolicious, Parisian Gift, 14/1 Raise All In, Thompsons Walls, 20/1 Andrasta, What A Fella, 33/1 Future Gem, Red River Boy, 66/1 Karate Queen, She´s Our Dream, 100/1 Lydia´s Legacy, Mickys Mate.

What a fella 16/1

505 FOLK
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Annabelle´s Charm, 11/4 Constant Cheers, 5/1 Evident Pride, 6/1 Special Reserve, 8/1 Gaia Prince, 10/1 Coyote Creek, 14/1 Bobby Charles, 25/1 Another Bottle, 50/1 Clipperdown.

Gaia Prince 4/1

515 HEREFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Tollishill, 5/2 That´Ll Do, 3/1 Black Jack Blues, 12/1 Calusa Shadow, 20/1 Academy All Star, Silent Affair, 25/1 Royal Role, Scilly Isles, 33/1 Readytopounce, 40/1 Double Chocolate, Nobel Play, 50/1 Mrs Onc.
Ready to popunce 16/1 and Academy all star 14/1

535 HUNT
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Took My Eye, 7/2 Mid Div And Creep, 4/1 Royal Tender, 9/2 Ballynonty, 7/1 Rock Charlie, 16/1 Well Corned.

2nd fav 7/4

550 HEREF
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 O´Toole, 7/2 Kaldouas, 4/1 Van Ness, 11/2 Nyrche, 8/1 In The Frame, 20/1 Nawow, 25/1 Earth Moving, 33/1 Ashclyst, 66/1 High Peak, Makena, Viscount Bankes, 100/1 Red Guard, 150/1 Adventino.
Makena 20/1

730 YARM
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Bigfanofthat, 4/1 Pha Mai Blue, 5/1 Gracie´s Gift, 8/1 Convallaria, Four Tel, 10/1 Dancing Duo, Registrar, 14/1 Mick Is Back, 16/1 Hobson, 20/1 Athboy Auction, Zars Gold, 33/1 Scruffy Skip, 50/1 Gone´N´Dunnett.
Convallaria 5/1 and Scruffy skip 16/1

30/4

Dunguib won by 9 lengths yesterday - a superb animal and , as I said, I could find no holes in the form or any niggles. If only there was a Dunguib running every day!
elswewhere Red Jazz won, and Native ruler won - the market's clear confidence did not reflect my own but 1.16 to place in such a big field was obviously a big vote of confidence which proved founded

Presque Perdre won as the 1/3 indicated - battered in from 8/15

245 FOLKSTONE
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Billy Beetroot, 100/30 Rathlin Light, 5/1 Chris´s Jem, 6/1 Fatal Attraction, 8/1 Filemot, 12/1 Aegean King, 14/1 Trade Price, 20/1 Louie´s Lad, 25/1 Sandy Par, Tightrope, 33/1 Bilboa, Rightcar Lewis, Sircozy, Wicksy Creek.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BILLY BEETROOT was unlucky to get caught here last time after setting a good pace and can go one better at the expense of Rathlin Light.Filemot and Fatal Attraction are others that make some appeal.

Billy Beetroot was a palce only selection last time and it ih hoped his place form continues, but of course the market tells us this is competitive 1.58 to place is a very illiquid market . Does relay the competitivenss of this race but with continuous placed form, this maiden could be worth a gamble?

255 HEREFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Tchico Polos, 9/4 Red Admiral, 11/2 Man From Highworth, 12/1 Project Gallery, 33/1 Kirbys Glen, 40/1 Pastek.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks likely to concern RED ADMIRAL and Tchico Polos. With Tcicho Polos having to prove his wellbeing after a break, slight preference goes to Red Admiral who represents a yard that has been in good form.[SR]

Man from Highworth, you'll recall, was a market mover who was gambled on and won last time out - not priced to go in again this time. Can we then, focus just on the front 2? 1.43 and 1.5 to place the front 2. Again the markets at time of writing are illiquid.



430 FOLKSTONE
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 King Of Defence, 4/1 Fly By Nelly, 5/1 Bussell Along, 7/1 Kyle Of Bute, 9/1 Golden Pool, 10/1 Cavendish Road, Mount Ella, 14/1 Crystallize, Kings On The Roof, 20/1 Josiah Bartlett, 25/1 Princess Rebecca, 33/1 Kamanja, Rose Of Coma,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Michael Bell won this last year and he has another interesting contender in Bussell Along who is one of several unexposed types that make this handicap tricky to solve. Along with Fly By Nelly and Golden Pool she has to be considered, but KING OF DEFENCE gets the nod having finished close behind several subsequent winners on his second run.[GN]

Fav now 4/5 - for a reason? That's quite a move! 1.24 to place

450 REDCAR
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 La Capriosa, 5/2 Chocolicious, Parisian Gift, 14/1 Raise All In, Thompsons Walls, 20/1 Andrasta, What A Fella, 33/1 Future Gem, Red River Boy, 66/1 Karate Queen, She´s Our Dream, 100/1 Lydia´s Legacy, Mickys Mate.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hard to look much beyond the three market leaders and preference is for LA CAPRIOSA, an in-form filly who knows how to win and who won't be inconvenienced by the return to 6f at this track. [RY]

In a day with very few opportunities, I'm scraping the barrel including this one - but 3 are 14/1 and under and hopefyuully the race will revolve around these 3 horses 1.4 , 1.68 and 1.68 the front 3 to place

455 PUNCHESTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Garde Champetre, 4/1 Silver Birch, 11/2 A New Story, 7/1 Drombeag, 16/1 Heads Onthe Ground, Shesadoll, Sorry Al, 20/1 Industrious, Oh Jackie, 25/1 Champion Charlie, Ooh Cha Cha, Spare Change, 50/1 Fountainsmemory, 66/1 Baginbun, Pondhill Lad.

This was the race I thought about when I mentioned Freneys Well on Day 1 of the Punchestown festival. As we see here, it is THIS race which should show Enda Bolger's charges as the dominant force here - Garde Champetre is reacquainted with Nina Carberry, Drombeag is the other Bolger runner under double figure odds, and Heads on the GRound is the 3rd.

The market expects a 4 horse race here 1.29 / 1.81 , 1.66 , 1.9 the front 4 to place - again the markets are weak at time of writing and there are marked gaps between layers and backers offers

520 REDCAR
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Topolski, 7/1 Citizenship, Hector´s House, 10/1 Kattar, Omokoroa, 14/1 Antipodean, Spartan Prince, Veronicas Boy, 33/1 Shakin John.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Several of these have plenty to prove, something that doesn't apply to TOPOLSKI, who showed improved form over this trip on quick ground on his handicap debut and reappearance last week and a 6lb penalty (will be 3lb higher in future) isn't necessarily enough to prevent a follow-up. [RY]

Price gapper here, but with the non runners now this should be emphasised.
7 runner race now so hopefully still 3 the place -middle distance race is a concern but the horse is a Johnston horse and they are typically tough. 1.1 to place in a 3 the place race

525 YARMOUTH
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Thomas Baines, 5/2 Tiradito, 9/2 Misheer, 20/1 Avec Moi, 25/1 Point To Prove, 33/1 Our Georgie Girl, Southwark Newshawk.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Tiradito and Misheer are newcomers to bear in mind but this looks a good opportunity for THOMAS BAINES, turned over in controversial circumstances last week, to repay his backers.[FC]

If Jamie " I can get a horse placed 4th in a 3 horse race" Spencer gets this one beat, he'll be crucified. Thomas Baines is now 1/3 fav and 7 runner race - 2 places though so we have to trust a not very trustworthy jockety to behave. 1.13 to place

540 FOLKSTONE
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 History Lesson, 13/8 Light Dubai, 8/1 Gold Maha, 12/1 Cluny, 50/1 Mac Wolf, 100/1 Roman The Emperor,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Light Dubai is already proven at this trip and will not prove easy to beat trying to give her stable a hat trick in this race but HISTORY LESSON is bred to come into his own over middle distances this year and can get off the mark in calmer waters than he has had the last twice.[GN]

History Lesson hasn't run since October 2008, but his place form is standout. Light Dubai has had a recent run. Looks a 2 horse race if the prices are accurate 1.28 the front 2 to place

610 HUNTINGDON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Know The Law, 11/4 Sam Lord, 7/1 L´Homme De Nuit, 9/1 Sir Liam, Viable, 14/1 Unanswered, 25/1 Rowan River, 66/1 Topping The Bill.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks a good opportunity for KNOW THE LAW (nap) to supplement his recent C&D win, perhaps at the expense of Sam Lord and Sir Liam.[SR]

8 horse race - 3 horses are 50/1 or bigger. Does this leave the fav with a good palce only chance with 2 to beat to place? 1.19 to place

710 HUNTINGDON
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Just Amazing, 7/4 I Have Dreamed, 6/1 Light Yield.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This may not be a sufficient test for Just Amazing, who hasn't run over a trip this short since his sole bumper back in May 2007, so preference is for I HAVE DREAMED who has no such concerns.[SR]

3 horse race - 2 places and an odds on fav. One to beat to place 1.16 and 1.38 to place the front 2 -again the markets haven't formed well at time of writing

SHORTLIST

455 PUNCHESTOWN
A specialist course and a specialist trip should be within the grasp of said course and distance specialist Edna Bolger and his charges.
Garde Champetre - 1.29 is currently short priced fav but there is a concern regarding the weight over 4 miles +, but this is a specialist horse (there's that word again!) proven at Punchestown and over this course and distance
A new story would seem to be the main danger 1.66


520 REDCAR
Topolski at 1.1 to place -price gapper in a class 5 0-75n handicap -3 to place in this 7 runner race

525 YARMOUTH
Thomas Baines is expected to put a previous ride ( Jamie Spencer in odds on shot unplaced again! shocker!) to bed and finish in the first 2 in this 7 runner race. OF course it's more difficult in smaller fields to "make mistakes" in race riding so we should expect the horse to run to true form today. 1/3 shot now signifies the potential in the horse. A few debutants in this maiden but pressure on Spencer to NOT MAKE ANY MISTAKE today

610 HUNTINGDON - Know the law 1.19 to place here . Sam Lord is 2nd fav under Thornton/King and should be factored in. 3 clear outsiders should help Know the Law place

710 HUNTINGDON
3 horse race - 2 to place and an odds on shot 1.16 to place (Just amazing) I have dreamed is 1.38 to place and could be worth a chance (we are assuming the 6/1 outsider does not factor here)

ONE A DAY
525 YARMOUTH - just from the perspective that lightning cannot strike rate , and even Jamie Spencer dare not get this horse unplaced, it's Thomas Baines for me at 1.13 at present to place in the first 2 . A slight risk given the debutants in this field, but this is a unique set of circumstances
-

29/4

Thank you for being a bunch of clickers - please keep it going!
Masterminded won and thus placed, as did Coq Hardi. Copenhagen - should have done my research - this was a 2nd leg match - 4-0 up from first match, but they won and over 2.5 goals came in. 3rd goal in 56th minute meant over 3.5 goals was tradeable. They went 1-0 down, which meant you could back a 1/100 shot at 1.3 at one stage - the good ole enhanced bets!
Nassar placed in the 0-60 handicap for the more adventurous at a better price than the above 3

210 ASCOT
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Red Jazz, 100/30 Walkingonthemoon, 7/2 Planet Red, 7/1 Archers Road, 14/1 Fratellino, 20/1 Little Perisher,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: One of the best juvenile races to be run this season. RED JAZZ looked at Windsor the sort who would hold his own at a higher level and the stable will have a good idea of how the colt stands with Newbury one-two Walkingonthemoon and Planet Red. The last-named may prove most dangerous.[FC]

Interesting because of 2 non runners, one was the provisional 3rd fav which could make the fav's job easier, not only to win, but to place?
5 horses are vying for 2 places - one of these horses is 33/1 leaving Red JAzz 2 to beat to place.
Quite a decent field if you consider the amount of 1's in the form column
Fav has only had the one run and as a 2 year old, how can we trust a baby to replicate that sole run? 1.23 to place in what may be a competitive heat made easier by the non runners?

255 PONTE

BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Native Ruler, 11/2 Cherish The Moment, 7/1 Highland Glen, Ottoman Empire, 10/1 Lombok, 14/1 Langford Decoit, 33/1 California Bright, Lady Luachmhar, Northside Prince, 50/1 Kendalewood, Red China Blues, 66/1 Cooperman, Money Lender, 100/1 Rosewin.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: NATIVE RULER (nap) is given another chance to live up to his home reputation. Ottoman Empire and Cherish The Moment are next best on form, though Highland Glen is going to improve plenty for the step up in trip.[PJ]

A price gapper here albeit in a big field maiden and again a fav with only the one run - still odds on in the live market - only 4 horses in this race are under 33/1 1.16 to place. Why the confidence behind this horse based only on one run? This is also one of those dreaded middle distance maidens where 14 runners could cause havoc!

520 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Dammam, 5/1 Double Expresso, Rebus, 13/2 Mooreheigh, 10/1 Simply Wings, 14/1 Quick Live, Sybil´s Surprise, 25/1 Fred Kennet, Star King, 33/1 Musical Wedge, 66/1 Marina´s Ocean,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Those with experience look nothing special and it'll be a surprise if this doesn't go to one of the newcomers. Double Expresso and Rebus are interesting but the one who appeals most is DAMMAM, who takes the eye on pedigree and hails from a yard that has won with three of their seven runners in bumpers at this track in recent years.

A price gapper and a debutant in the bumper here - short because it's Thornton/King 1.34 in a highly illiquid market

530 PUNCHESTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Dunguib, 6/1 Universal Truth, 7/1 Luska Lad, 9/1 Sweeps Hill, 10/1 Sicilian Secret, 12/1 Quadrillon, 14/1 Baracas, 16/1 Golden Sunbird, Tornedo Shay, 20/1 Fionn Tra.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: DUNGUIB looked a quite exceptional talent when spreadeagling his rivals in the bumper at Cheltenham and will be a warm order to follow up. There is a very real possibility that this more compact line-up has produced a stronger field than the Cheltenham race, thanks to the presence of four-time winner Luska Lad, unbeaten three-time winner Universal Truth, and the unexposed Sweeps Hill, but Philip Fenton's runner looks the real deal.

The talking horse for today at Punchestown - price gapper in a GRade 1 must always be recognised As ever Grade 1's mean GOOD horses but Dunguib doesn't have the question marks that someone like Cooldine had yesterday 1.28 to place

600 KELSO
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Sir Mulberry Hawk, 7/4 Catch Bob, 9/2 Hunting Tower, 8/1 Always Best, 16/1 Bale O´Shea, 20/1 Dollar Mick, River Mint, 66/1 Jalamid, 150/1 Howards Dream.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Although he didn't progress in quite the expected manner in bumpers, SIR MULBERRY HAWK still looks the type that Alan Swinbank, who also trains his decent brother Sir Boreas Hawk, could do well with over hurdles. Catch Bob, assuming he'll handle the forecast quickish conditions, is feared most.[SB]

A 9 runner race with only 4 under 20/1 -again will the 1-2-3 in the race come from these particular 4, and if so, which horse will falter? It's one of those stick a pin in jobbies and hope your horse places 1.32 / 1.34 / 1.51 / 2.35 the front 4 to place

800 KELSO
BETTING FORECAST: 8/15 Presque Perdre, 9/2 Turtle Spirit, 11/2 Crackerjack Lad, 12/1 Catai, 20/1 Executive Xpress, 25/1 Victorias.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PRESQUE PERDRE looks very much the one to beat on paper. Crackerjack Lad and hurdling debutant Turtle Spirit are the most interesting of the remainder.[SB]

I always like to see price gappers battered in the live market - here into 1/3 - negatives? 2 the place 1.1 to place

FOOTBALL - Legia Warsaw 2/5 in a cup game cannot be trusted alas

SHORTLIST
At first glance this is a difficult day. Some of the price gappers are maidens who have only had the one run and are trusted to automatically repeat an encouraging first appearance. It doesn't always work like that alas! Add into the mix middle distances and conditions stakes and it's a tricky day.
But what really stands out?
210 ASCOT - I'll try to attack this from a probability perspective. We have 5 horses remaining, one of which is at 33/1 and the other, under Frankie Dettori, is at 11/1 and considerably up in class here.
Now can we assume these 2 are unlikely to be fighting out the finish - quite an assumption given this is a 5 furlong event and anything can happen, as well as seeing Mr Dettori on a perceived outsider - if we can though, Red Jazz would have 1 horse to beat to place wouldn't he? One niggle is this already alluded to status of the horse as having just the one run and expected to automatically replicate that form

530 PUNCHESTOWN - Dunguib at 1.23 looks worth considering given the price gap in the grade and the small matter of his recent demolition job at CHeltenham. We saw yesterday with MAsterminded and Cooldine that end of season races can produce a waivering performance as the horse would have been fully wound up for Cheltenham and not necessarily Punchestown
Soft ground is not a concern as he has won on heavy - same jockey rides today.
This is a flat race so there are no obstacles
The horse has specialised in these flat races and form reads 2111 -I can't pick any holes in this one ,savw for Spotlight's cursory warning regarding the perceived increased competitiveness of this field.

600 KELSO - one of those hit and hopes with 4 likely contenders and 3 places. I am drawn by the place prices of 1.32 minimum Live market sees Catch Bob early fav, but Always BEst currently 5/1 cannot be discounted (although has been discounted in the place only pricings.)

800 KELSO
Presque Perdre is now 1/3 inb the live netting market, always a good sign and is 1.1 to place

ONE A DAY

In a very tricky day indeed, I think I'll have to go with Dunguib at the prices in the 530 PUNCHESTOWN at 1.28 to place. Th others have niggles of one kind or another - one has only had the one run and it is a matter of faith that he replicates said run , the 600 Kelso sees a race where I cannot discount any of the front 4 (it's a race if you want to take a chance that your horse is the one to finish in the top 3 )and Presque Perdre is a little shortish in price

The hope is that Dunguib is fresh and can finish in the front 3. I cannot find any holes in the form ,or any reasons to readily dismiss this one.