Masterminded won and thus placed, as did Coq Hardi. Copenhagen - should have done my research - this was a 2nd leg match - 4-0 up from first match, but they won and over 2.5 goals came in. 3rd goal in 56th minute meant over 3.5 goals was tradeable. They went 1-0 down, which meant you could back a 1/100 shot at 1.3 at one stage - the good ole enhanced bets!
Nassar placed in the 0-60 handicap for the more adventurous at a better price than the above 3
210 ASCOT
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Red Jazz, 100/30 Walkingonthemoon, 7/2 Planet Red, 7/1 Archers Road, 14/1 Fratellino, 20/1 Little Perisher,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: One of the best juvenile races to be run this season. RED JAZZ looked at Windsor the sort who would hold his own at a higher level and the stable will have a good idea of how the colt stands with Newbury one-two Walkingonthemoon and Planet Red. The last-named may prove most dangerous.[FC] |
Interesting because of 2 non runners, one was the provisional 3rd fav which could make the fav's job easier, not only to win, but to place?
5 horses are vying for 2 places - one of these horses is 33/1 leaving Red JAzz 2 to beat to place.
Quite a decent field if you consider the amount of 1's in the form column
Fav has only had the one run and as a 2 year old, how can we trust a baby to replicate that sole run? 1.23 to place in what may be a competitive heat made easier by the non runners?
255 PONTE
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: NATIVE RULER (nap) is given another chance to live up to his home reputation. Ottoman Empire and Cherish The Moment are next best on form, though Highland Glen is going to improve plenty for the step up in trip.[PJ] |
A price gapper here albeit in a big field maiden and again a fav with only the one run - still odds on in the live market - only 4 horses in this race are under 33/1 1.16 to place. Why the confidence behind this horse based only on one run? This is also one of those dreaded middle distance maidens where 14 runners could cause havoc!
520 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Dammam, 5/1 Double Expresso, Rebus, 13/2 Mooreheigh, 10/1 Simply Wings, 14/1 Quick Live, Sybil´s Surprise, 25/1 Fred Kennet, Star King, 33/1 Musical Wedge, 66/1 Marina´s Ocean,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Those with experience look nothing special and it'll be a surprise if this doesn't go to one of the newcomers. Double Expresso and Rebus are interesting but the one who appeals most is DAMMAM, who takes the eye on pedigree and hails from a yard that has won with three of their seven runners in bumpers at this track in recent years. |
A price gapper and a debutant in the bumper here - short because it's Thornton/King 1.34 in a highly illiquid market
530 PUNCHESTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Dunguib, 6/1 Universal Truth, 7/1 Luska Lad, 9/1 Sweeps Hill, 10/1 Sicilian Secret, 12/1 Quadrillon, 14/1 Baracas, 16/1 Golden Sunbird, Tornedo Shay, 20/1 Fionn Tra.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: DUNGUIB looked a quite exceptional talent when spreadeagling his rivals in the bumper at Cheltenham and will be a warm order to follow up. There is a very real possibility that this more compact line-up has produced a stronger field than the Cheltenham race, thanks to the presence of four-time winner Luska Lad, unbeaten three-time winner Universal Truth, and the unexposed Sweeps Hill, but Philip Fenton's runner looks the real deal. |
The talking horse for today at Punchestown - price gapper in a GRade 1 must always be recognised As ever Grade 1's mean GOOD horses but Dunguib doesn't have the question marks that someone like Cooldine had yesterday 1.28 to place
600 KELSO
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Sir Mulberry Hawk, 7/4 Catch Bob, 9/2 Hunting Tower, 8/1 Always Best, 16/1 Bale O´Shea, 20/1 Dollar Mick, River Mint, 66/1 Jalamid, 150/1 Howards Dream.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Although he didn't progress in quite the expected manner in bumpers, SIR MULBERRY HAWK still looks the type that Alan Swinbank, who also trains his decent brother Sir Boreas Hawk, could do well with over hurdles. Catch Bob, assuming he'll handle the forecast quickish conditions, is feared most.[SB] |
A 9 runner race with only 4 under 20/1 -again will the 1-2-3 in the race come from these particular 4, and if so, which horse will falter? It's one of those stick a pin in jobbies and hope your horse places 1.32 / 1.34 / 1.51 / 2.35 the front 4 to place
800 KELSO
BETTING FORECAST: 8/15 Presque Perdre, 9/2 Turtle Spirit, 11/2 Crackerjack Lad, 12/1 Catai, 20/1 Executive Xpress, 25/1 Victorias.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PRESQUE PERDRE looks very much the one to beat on paper. Crackerjack Lad and hurdling debutant Turtle Spirit are the most interesting of the remainder.[SB] |
I always like to see price gappers battered in the live market - here into 1/3 - negatives? 2 the place 1.1 to place
FOOTBALL - Legia Warsaw 2/5 in a cup game cannot be trusted alas
SHORTLIST
At first glance this is a difficult day. Some of the price gappers are maidens who have only had the one run and are trusted to automatically repeat an encouraging first appearance. It doesn't always work like that alas! Add into the mix middle distances and conditions stakes and it's a tricky day.
But what really stands out?
210 ASCOT - I'll try to attack this from a probability perspective. We have 5 horses remaining, one of which is at 33/1 and the other, under Frankie Dettori, is at 11/1 and considerably up in class here.
Now can we assume these 2 are unlikely to be fighting out the finish - quite an assumption given this is a 5 furlong event and anything can happen, as well as seeing Mr Dettori on a perceived outsider - if we can though, Red Jazz would have 1 horse to beat to place wouldn't he? One niggle is this already alluded to status of the horse as having just the one run and expected to automatically replicate that form
530 PUNCHESTOWN - Dunguib at 1.23 looks worth considering given the price gap in the grade and the small matter of his recent demolition job at CHeltenham. We saw yesterday with MAsterminded and Cooldine that end of season races can produce a waivering performance as the horse would have been fully wound up for Cheltenham and not necessarily Punchestown
Soft ground is not a concern as he has won on heavy - same jockey rides today.
This is a flat race so there are no obstacles
The horse has specialised in these flat races and form reads 2111 -I can't pick any holes in this one ,savw for Spotlight's cursory warning regarding the perceived increased competitiveness of this field.
600 KELSO - one of those hit and hopes with 4 likely contenders and 3 places. I am drawn by the place prices of 1.32 minimum Live market sees Catch Bob early fav, but Always BEst currently 5/1 cannot be discounted (although has been discounted in the place only pricings.)
800 KELSO
Presque Perdre is now 1/3 inb the live netting market, always a good sign and is 1.1 to place
ONE A DAY
In a very tricky day indeed, I think I'll have to go with Dunguib at the prices in the 530 PUNCHESTOWN at 1.28 to place. Th others have niggles of one kind or another - one has only had the one run and it is a matter of faith that he replicates said run , the 600 Kelso sees a race where I cannot discount any of the front 4 (it's a race if you want to take a chance that your horse is the one to finish in the top 3 )and Presque Perdre is a little shortish in price
The hope is that Dunguib is fresh and can finish in the front 3. I cannot find any holes in the form ,or any reasons to readily dismiss this one.
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