As you saw yesterday there were 2 distinguishable selections - one for level stakes players (Fantasia) and the other, (at a price unnaturally high for place only betting for me) who was worth the gamble given that target profit per day bettors would only have been placing £4 at risk to get ,say £2 return.
Regular readers will know that Buck the Legend was not a typical bet for me, and in hindsight I should have stuck with Fantasia
Another selection, Taqdeyr, did the business in the 920 - a horse who was "all red" at the betting site website -the money was down some 10 hours before race time and obviously justified.
On to today, and again, earlier than normal ( I prefer doing the selections an hour before racing begins but the nephew and neice beckons!)
150 NMKT
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Harbinger, 3/1 Reportage, 4/1 Errol Flynn, 12/1 Best Shot, Militarist, 14/1 Lord Fidelio, Ottoman Empire, Repetischa, 20/1 Illusive Spirit, 25/1 Beauchamp Xerxes, Big Bay, 33/1 Dolores Ortiz.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Jeremy Noseda has done really well in this race in recent years (won both divisions in 2006 and also took a division last year) so Errol Flynn needs respect while Harbinger has Dante and Derby entries, but John Gosden has made a fine start to the campaign and REPORTAGE, with Frankie up, can make a successful debut.[AC] |
An interesting start with Militarist 13/8 fav (check out the betting forecast price!) Reportage a non runner
A race where all are debutants so is this leap into favourite significant? 1.38 to place
200 RIPON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Here Now And Why, 4/1 Saucy Girl, 8/1 Chifah, Whippers Love, 20/1 Mister Manannan, Take It To The Max, 25/1 Senate Majority, 33/1 Lord´s Seat, Sheka, 40/1 Tillys Tale, 50/1 Camacho Flyer.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Recent race history points to the Tim Easterby-trained pair, with Saucy Girl - with David Allan, who has partnered the stable's three recent winners, in the saddle - looking the main hope. A big run is on the cards but HERE NOW AND WHY sets a decent standard on his Leicester second and can turn his experience to good effect.[ |
Another race typical of the races we have encountered this week.
A 5 furlong maiden with a number of debutants and a fav who has only had the one run, albeit impressively.Repeating that performance should help him for the place?
Question marks about the debutants and the others who have just had one run and may improve?We simply do not know anything about the debutants to definitively dismiss them - 1.1 to place
210 CHELT
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Aachen, 3/1 Tataniano, 6/1 Enfant De Lune, 7/1 Proper, 9/1 Stage Acclaim, 12/1 Gold Award, 14/1 Nothing´s Easy, Postmaster, 20/1 Smoke And Mirrors, 200/1 Aussie Bay.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Aachen and Tataniano set the standard in theory and both have strong claims. There were valid reasons for ENFANT DE LUNE's last two runs and he can set the record straight this time. |
Tatiano fav currently with Aachen close. Can Walsh/Nicholls be relied upon as usual on this perennial front runner ? 1.63 / 1.41 the front 2
335 NMKT
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Delegator, 9/2 City Style, 11/2 Glass Harmonium, 8/1 Pure Poetry, 12/1 Alyarf, Sans Frontieres, 16/1 Close Alliance, 33/1 Imperial Guest.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not sure where the early pace will come from here. The Godolphin representative City Style will lack nothing in terms of fitness while the Stoute yard's runners in this race always need respect so Glass Harmonium has to enter the equation, but DELEGATOR sets a clear standard on his 2yo form and is taken to justify the glowing reports of his work on the Manton gallops.[AC] |
2nd fav a non runner should surely help Delegator? An original 8 runner race down to 7 - Betfair still paying 3 the place?
Again, not run since October 2008, but a price gapper .Has the other Frankie on board (Spencer!!) who should behave on a strong favourite and not pull the usual 4th place in a 3 the place race! 1.13 to palce - the only horse under evens in the place market
410 NMKT
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Twice Over, 100/30 Virtual, 7/1 Tazeez, 10/1 Barshiba, 14/1 Bushman, 16/1 Lady Deauville, 20/1 Steele Tango, 25/1 Emerald Wilderness, Logic Way, 100/1 Nomoretaxes.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Henry Cecil, who has hit the ground running with his early representatives, has won this three times in the last 12 years and can strike again with TWICE OVER, who has a fine record fresh and on this track and is clearly the one to beat on last year's form.[AC] |
Again a fav not run since Oct 2008. Like Taqdeyr, all red across the board.Only 2 horses under 12/1 in the live market.
Again, a 2nd fav is a non runner 1.12 to place
430 CHELT
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Baby Run, 3/1 Amicelli, 7/2 Royal Auclair, 12/1 Merchants Friend, 14/1 Take The Stand, 16/1 Swift Wood, 25/1 Hautclan, 40/1 Thompsons Wood.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Baby Run is the one to beat on last month's form but AMICELLI goes particularly well for Oliver Greenall and can reverse the festival placings, even on much worse terms.[JN] |
Now 7 runners, one 100/1 shot and one 25/1 shot reduces the field to 5 competitive,3 of whom should place if Betfair allows.
Merchants Friend 16/1 hopefully will play no part. Should concern Baby Run, Amicelli and Royal Auclair. 1.29 / 1.41 and 1.36 to place the front 3 in a 3 the place race
545 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Shark Man, 7/2 China Bay, Could It Be Magic, 6/1 Reel Credit Crunch, 12/1 Dancing Freddy, 20/1 Isle Of Ellis, 33/1 Absher, Bebenine, Dayshah Vu,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: China Bay and Reel Credit Crunch are newcomers to note, but SHARK MAN has experience on his side and has done enough to indicate he can win a race like this He can confirm Brocklesby superiority over Could It Be Magic.[FC] |
Another maiden (we are overwhelmed with them today) and a fav who came 2nd recently ,so has come back from a break enouragingly on the all weather 1.22 the place
715 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Cascata, 7/2 Miss Beat, Stagecoach Jade, 10/1 Cashleen, 12/1 Abu Dubai, 14/1 Brer Rabbit, Common Diva, 16/1 Flying Lady, Perfect Friend, 25/1 Peace Concluded,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Market confidence behind Oaks-entry Cascata would be ominous but one that could prove a fly in the ointment is the race-fit STAGECOACH JADE after her likeable win over C&D last month.[BDO] |
Well the "market confidence" is "ominous" - currently odds on shot here and another risk to be taken given the break since last run, being a handicap debutant, and favouratism based solely on one run only 1.3 to placae - quite high given the apparent confidence
ONE A DAY
This flat season sees a huge number of debutants in maidens, and favourites who have not seen a race course for upwards of 6 months.
Herenowandwhy falls into the above category, and Delegator has a long absence to overcome
I'll chance Delegator today at 1.13 to place - 7 runners now BUT still 3 the place.
What really grabs me is the place market. 1.13 this horse - next best to place is 2.22
Not run since October 2008 this is the worry, but the market screams out that this is a place only good thing
A competitive race it must be said, and I have trust issues with Jamie Spencer, but the hope is that he CANNOT find 3 to beat him (in a 7 runner race) to place
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