200 AINTREE
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Big Buck´s, 9/2 Mighty Man, 8/1 Fair Along, 10/1 Duc De Regniere, 16/1 Hills Of Aran, Lough Derg, 25/1 Pettifour, 50/1 Faasel, No Refuge, 200/1 Master Eddy.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Big Buck's just gets better and better and is not opposed lightly, but MIGHTY MAN showed he retains the greater part of his ability on his return from a career-threatening injury at Cheltenham, should come on for the run and, with an 8lb pull, can take his revenge on a course he loves.[FC] |
A good place to start. Odds on shot in a class 1.10 runner race. One horse at 200/1, 3 at 25/1 or bigger should reduce the competitive field.
Fav does look solid enough to place.
210 LEIC
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Michael Bell's newcomer Farmer Giles has a likely looking profile but may find the Brocklesby runner-up ARCHERS ROAD too hot to handle on his debut.[FC] |
Market makes this 11/8 the front 2 but a race where all bar one are debutants and thus unknown quantities. Archers Road though has a very recent run under his belt and a good benchmark from the Brockleby.
235 AINTREE
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Starluck, Walkon, 3/1 Hebridean, 10/1 Ski Sunday, 20/1 First Avenue, Kyrie Eleison, 25/1 Sainglend, Silk Drum, 33/1 Livvy Inn, 50/1 Thumbs Up, 66/1 Tri Nations, 100/1 Dinarius, 200/1 Apartman.
The market makes this a 4 horse race. The front 3 simply can't be split ,all currently 11/4 or thereabouts
255 TAUNTON
BETTING FORECAST: 1/20 Bergo, 10/1 Faraday.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The main interest here is likely to be the starting prices as BERGO has about four stones in hand of his rival.[JN] |
Blindingly obvious!
310 AINTREE
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Paul Nicholls, in the slough of despond about DENMAN only a few weeks before last month's Gold Cup, has now come over all chipper in the light of his star chaser's blinding effort in that race and his subsequent demeanour at home. Provided those exertions have not knocked the stuffing out of him, Denman should confirm superiority over Exotic Dancer and the other five who finished behind him. Star De Mohaison didn't do himself justice in the Gold Cup and may be the one to beat in receipt of 10lb.[PJ] |
3.55 to place last time unlikely to be replicated here alas. Back to odds on status, he, along with Exotic Dancer look good place prospects
455 AINTREE
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Chapoturgeon, 4/1 Planet Of Sound, 6/1 Tartak, 13/2 Calgary Bay, Ouzbeck, 8/1 Gauvain, 17/2 Deep Purple, 50/1 Pertemps Networks.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A decent turnout for the first running of this new Grade 2. Planet Of Sound may again be able to take care of the three rivals he had behind him when third in the Arkle at Cheltenham but he could struggle to contain CHAPOTURGEON, who took the Jewson Novices' Handicap in such style at the same meeting and will be tough to beat if in the same form again. Ouzbeck could be third best. [MCu] |
Decent enough market leader with form in the bag. Concern is the close knit prices of those following hinting at competitiveness
515 TAUNTON
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Prairie Spirit, 6/1 Tayarat, 8/1 High Standard, 10/1 Brousse En Feux, Foreign King, 20/1 Boogie Dancer.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Most of PRAIRIE SPIRIT's rivals have made the running at various stages of their careers which should ensure that this is not run at a crawl, and last week's impressive Hereford winner is an obvious selection to go in again.[JN] |
A great price gap here, but a shortie in a small field handicap. Not as obvious as might first seem but the price gap is revealing
SHORTLIST
Writing this earlier than usual so I will take the above on trust, although any late non runners may change the complexion of omitted races and make them better for place only betting.
I think Aintree should be the main focus. PRice gappers/ shorties invariably place at these big meetings ( bar perhaps KAsbah Bliss at Chelt)
200 AINTREE - Big Bucks is 1.18 to place - only he and Mighty Man are odds on in the place only market. It will take 3 very good horses to keep Big Bucks out of the places and in this 10 runner race, the prices indicate that 4 can be discounted, leaving 6 vying for 3 places.
As ever, a fall will scupper things but Ruby is onboard, and has the winning habit with Big Bucks
235 AINTREE - a change of tack perhaps. The front 3 simply can't be split, and there is potential for a dutch - software such as Fairbot allows us to dutch to make a required profit. £2 for instance win on the front 4 requires a £14 stake which is reasonable enough
The danger with chosing one of the 3 is that rarely will they finish 1-2-3, and if they don't, who's going to falter? BUT at about 1.5 to place for any of the 3, stakes for target profit per dayers will be low
310 AINTREE
1.27 for Denman is certainly very enticing, as is the 1.56 for Exotic Dancer.
ONE A DAY
FAith in Walsh /Nicholls on board Big bucks for me today. The horse can't keep winning and is due a loss ,which is a concern, but has proven ability, and a winning relationship with Ruby Walsh
The dutch, for me, does look safer -after all 4 on our side to win.
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