I was happy with my analysis of Parma's match. Indeed Salernitano seemed to step up a gear against top of the league sides and a tight match was predicted - 0-0 the final score so a break even bet there for me as I covered to draw. The screenshot, I found out afterwards, could be clicked to make it bigger. I have the software now to make screenshots into jpegs to allow them to be viewed so will be making use of this in the future.
Today sees Day 1 of the Punchestown's festival and there are some likely contenders include the class act of the NAtional Hunt ranks - Masterminded.
255 WINCANTON
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not a bad novice hurdle, with CALAFICIAL (nap) and Wade Farm Billy looking the two main contenders. Calaficial is the one to beat assuming his latest unfortunate experience at Market Rasen hasn't left any ill-effects; his top trainer is evidently of the view that all is well, hence this relatively quick reappearance.[ |
I always like to shortlist Alan King and Robert Thornton horses and Calaficial heads the field here in a race where many can be discounted. The one drawback is the fav's fall last time out - these do affect horses but Calaficial was likely to win that race.
Only 4 under 16/1 with Wizard of Odds a non runenr - this benefits Oddshoes whose odds have halved to 4/1 1.49 to place the fav signifies a slight ? after his serious fall last time
345 PUNCHESTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Freneys Well, 13/2 Wedger Pardy, 8/1 Loggan Lass, 12/1 Royal Ranger, 14/1 Lord Time, 20/1 How Are Things, Killininney, Leegane, 25/1 Adrianeo, Another Jewel, Locked, Perkins Paddock, Waki Baki, 33/1 Coronary Star, Court In Progress, Definately Maybe, The Mucky Pup, 50/1 Charlie James, Foxy Flyer.
On the face of it a 19 runner hunter chase is normally "run away run away" territory for betting purposes until we realise this is the kind of race Edna Bolger excels in - remember Cheltenham and his 1-2 there?
Hence the short price on Freneys Well 1.26 to place is a ridiculous price in a 3 the place 19 runner obstacles race but those with glass half full will ask why such a short price to place - must be some confidence that the Bolger runner will dominante
405 WINCANTON
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Coq Hardi, 9/2 Baren De Doc, 9/1 Elton, 14/1 Oncle Kid, Wasntme, 20/1 Clifden Boy, 33/1 You Can Of Course, 40/1 Orion Star.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A standout horse in COQ HARDI, whose odds are likely to be prohibitive but who is likely to win easily if running to anything like the level of his latest good fourth in a Grade 2 Aintree novice. Even his previous two efforts over fences entitle him to win, possibly at the main expense of Baren de Doc.[MCu] |
Price gapper here but an uncomfortable 4/6 in the live market and closer proximity now of Baren De Doc.Choc Thornton on board and only a fall or pulled up is likley to keep this one out of the places 1.13 to place and still 3 places
420 PUNCHESTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Hurricane Fly, 100/30 Go Native, 7/1 El Dancer, Riverside Theatre, 10/1 Kempes, 16/1 Dundrum, 20/1 Fisher Bridge, Fosters Cross.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This is likely to hinge on whether HURRICANE FLY has recovered sufficiently to show his best form. Providing that he has done so, he should uphold Leopardstown form with the Supreme Novices' winner Go Native, although it may be unrealistic to expect a similarly extravagant display. [AS] |
Willie Mullins, Ruby's retainer in IReland, runs Hurricane Fly, not seen since December 2008 after an injury scare. So we have to take on trust the fact that the horse is fully fit, and fully prepared. IS this a chance worth taking given the competitive nature of this race will not allow for "ifs and buts" 1.16 to place
525 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Nassar, 11/2 Art Value, 8/1 Almahaza, Free Tussy, Oops Another Act, 10/1 Forced Opinion, Make Amends, 16/1 Play Up Pompey, 20/1 Barton Sands, 25/1 Royal Choir, Smokin Joe, 33/1 Empire Seeker, Mr Fantozzi, Tallulah Sunrise.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Nassar is potentially well in after his win the other day and is feared but ART VALUE is much lower in the weights now than he was last year and gets the vote after looking to be coming to hand for his new yard last time. Free Tussy and Forced Opinion are other interesting runners and a market move for either could be significant |
What have we here? A 0-60 class 56 handicap price gapper in Nassar and historically price gappers in these lowly ground handicaps have placed consistently 1.53 to place in a very illiquid market
605 PUNCHESTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 1/4 Master Minded, 11/2 Big Zeb, 9/1 Mansony, 25/1 Conna Castle, Newmill, Watson Lake.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MASTER MINDED was not as magnificently commanding at Cheltenham as he was 12 months earlier, but is head and shoulders above his British-trained contemporaries, never mind the home-trained runners who form the supporting-cast here. With a clear round Big Zeb should beat the 2007 winner Mansony for second. [AS] |
And now for the star of the show ,and Spotlight is as bold as to say "impossible to oppose" for the Might Masterminded. Magnus Magnusson, you'll be pleased to hear, is replaced by Ruby who has winning form with the horse. 1.15 to place is big relative to the horse and its previous hugely impressive form
640 PUNCHESTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Cooldine, 4/1 Joncol, 8/1 Horner Woods, 10/1 Gone To Lunch, Rare Bob, 20/1 Moskova, 33/1 Skip Two, 200/1 Goinforporter.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Cheltenham winners coming on to this meeting run the risk of the one-race-too-many syndome, but that will hardly apply to COOLDINE, who was such an impressive winner of the RSA Chase on only his fourth start of the campaign. He looks a solid odds-on chance to beat Joncol, since Horner Woods will do well to repeat his Cheltenham heroics in a race likely to be run at a different tempo. [AS] |
Spotlight is right with his comments regarding potentially one race too many - this was the downfall of American Trilogy at the weekend.
Ruby rides again, and concern that Ruby may not boot in all the favoured rides he has today (from Mullins and Nicholls)
One non runner leaves 7 but still hopefully 3 the place Cooldine 1.16 to place and still 3 places
FOOTBALL
| 17:00 | FC Copenhagen vs Nordvest FC | 1/100 |
Match odds are 1.07 which is tempting given 1/100 shots do not lose ( there's always a first time lol!)
1.25 over 2.5 goals but a market where there is simply no money
SHORTLIST
345 PUNCHESTOWN
Freneys Well at 1.26 sees the Bolger/McNamara combination again and logic tells you this is a lay at the price in a big field over 3 miles in a competitive meeting, but hey, this is Bolger and this is what he does
405 WINCANTON - LE Coq Hardi at 1.13 looks very appealing given 8 are now 7 and still 3 places - 2 horses at 40/1 or bigger make life easier for place only backers. Ran in class 1 and class 2 last 2 runs - drop in class here should see him competitive enough bar ,of course ,a fall which we always have the threat of in jumps racing, even with MAsterminded later on!
500 - FC COPENHAGEN at 1/100 is ideal territory for enhanced betting and over 2.5 goals betting - there seems to be absolutely no interest in the match at time of writing - it is in running so will be tradeable but again illiquidity could put paid to that. Still, a stonking opportunity for a 1.25 on the over 2.5 goals (as long as FC Copenhage field a strong side in this cup game given they are still battling for the LEague title and this may not be priority)
525 LINGFIELD
Nassar falls into my price gapper in a class 6 0-60 handicap but whay is he 1.53 to place? Worth a gamble for target profit per dayers to keep their outlay down?
605 PUNCHESTOWN
1.15 for Masterminded to place looks huge for one such as he. A class act.
ONE A DAY
It has to be Masterminded today hasn't it at 1.15 to place ? Coq HArdi at 1.13 in the 405 Wincanton looks to have a great chance in a 7 runner race still paying out 3 places, and 2 outisders at 33/1 or bigger reducing the (hopefully) competitive runners to 5 , so theoretically 2 to beat to place
The football will appeal before if the markets become a little more liquid - for example there's £2 waiting on over 2.5 goals at 1.25!
If we compare 1/100 shots like Germany against Leichtenstein, we should expect a 4-0 , 4-1 score line IF the proper Copenhagen side go out. Again click on the image below for a look at the markets I would concentrate on - hey, even 1.08 sounds appealing - I've place backed 1.08 shots before and 1/100 odds footy teams should not lose of course, all things being equal. The fact we can trade is an added bonus.
Those who like to relate 1/100 shots to the performance of precious 1`/100 shots could speculate on the over 3.5 goals market ( again very illiquid as you will see) but this is an opportunity to back a 1/100 shot at 1/2 or bigger and get a decent run for our money - currently 1.62 but wholly illiquid
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