Wednesday, 8 April 2009

8/4

No problems yesterday with a 1/6 shot placing in the first 2 in a 3 horse race with a 25/1 outsider. Now, quite frankly, it was so easy to pick this one out that you could have done it yourself surely? You didn't need a blog telling you the bleedin' obvious!
And at 1.11 to place it was a gift!
The market movers couldn't reach the superb heights of Monday but ended the day with a 9/1 and 11/1 winner. The 5/1 and under selections I think got 3 or 4 winners to keep it ticking along. 

On to today, and I'm starting a bit earlier which is not ideal as I don't have the advantage of latest information - I'll incorporate market movers today

200 NOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Star Rover, 7/1 Black Daddy, 15/2 Gillburg, 8/1 Royal Desert, 10/1 Red Avalanche, 16/1 Corporal Maddox, 20/1 Heslington, 40/1 Avec Moi.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Interesting that conncections of Black Daddy and Red Avalanche want to renew rivalry with their Kempton conqueror STAR ROVER but, although there are grounds to anticipating improvement from both, they are expected to find the task beyond them again.[FC]

Why is Corporal MAddox 5/2 2nd favourite? One hell of a move? T. Is this move accurate - if so perhaps a place only candidate? Wealth warning though - these are youngsters who have not run on a race course before or only had the one run
MARKET MOVERS - Corporal MAddox and Heslington 14/1 in places

210 HEREFORD

BETTING FORECAST: 11/2 Perfect Line, 6/1 Dizzy Future,  The Accordionist, 7/1 Particle, 8/1 Heezagrey, 9/1 Pardon What, 12/1 Girardii, 14/1 Cortesia,  Marias Rock, 16/1 Colinette,  Little Rort, 20/1 Ayurveda, 25/1 Classic Quart,  Golden Trigger,  Major Upset, 33/1 Kentford Mist, 50/1 Fredrico,  Mega Steps.

MARKET MOVERS - Classic Quart 16/1 in places Kentford Mist 18/1 in places , Major Upset 16/1 in places. Now we have to take these market movers in the context of a 3 mile 2 furlong 18 runner conditional jockeys handicap hurdle. POSITIVES - should be open given the jockeys and 4 places for each way backers at such big prices
NEGATIVES - 3 qualifiers is too many BUT worked with Polar Gales race yesterday backing 3 in one race. 

220 BRIGHTON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Alsahil, 11/4 Brunston,  Carbon Hoofprint, 4/1 Our Day Will Come, 14/1 Edgeworth, 50/1 Konka,  Wild Lyph.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Alsahil should do better with his debut effort behind him and is bred to develop into a useful performer, but BRUNSTON shaped with promise in two very good Newbury maidens last autumn and his stable have a 47% strike-rate here in recent times.[PSm]

Brunston 6/4 in places is the market mover. It's too tight at the head of the market to want to get involved for 2 only place betting

240 HEREFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Le Brocquy, 4/1 Noticeable, 5/1 Harlequinn Danseur, 8/1 Silver Bank, 12/1 Fair Shake, 14/1 Thethirdoftheforth, 16/1 Esturgeon Du Ranch, 20/1 Tachbury, 25/1 Bridie Rooney,  Irish Cottage, 33/1 Lord Of Dreams,  Pleiade De La Vega, 40/1 Hot Choc, 50/1 Fateful Attraction,  Shadow Jumper, 100/1 Highly Elaborate.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: LE BROCQUY achieved enough at Warwick to suggest he's capable of winning an ordinary novice hurdle, let alone a seller, and he may not need to improve to go one better. NoticeableHarlequinn Danseur andSilver Bank are probably his main rivals.[SB]

Noticeable is now 7/4 and 6/4 in places, an interesting move given this is Choc Thornton and Alan King. BUT a selling hurdle and 15 runners

310 HEREFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 11/2 Naughty By Nature, 6/1 Come On Jonny, 7/1 Never Lost, 9/1 New Rackheath,  Wheelavit, 10/1 Mr Newton, 12/1 Marino Prince,  Pinnacle Point,  Saviour Sand, 16/1 Ptibaby,  Stage Right, 20/1 Le Toto,  Monets Masterpiece, 25/1 Capall Eile,  Pipers Legend, 33/1 Kijivu,  Monsieur, 40/1 Oristano.

MARKET MOVERS - Pipers LEgend 11/1 , Ptibaby 10/1, Mr Newton 4/1 and Come on Jonny 10/3. For my 5/1 and unders of course I can back the last 2 if they remain at that price. 

Too many selections really in one race but I do like to risk at times as this is a handicap hurdle and I'm covering top of the market and a couple of bigger prices

320 BRIGHTON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Star Choice, 7/2 Clovis, 4/1 King´s Majesty, 6/1 Moonshine Creek, 8/1 Good Effect,  White Moss, 12/1 Megalala.

MARKET MOVER - Kings MAjexty now leapfrogs to 11/4 fav

330 NOTTINGHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Fiulin, 5/1 Hindu Kush, 6/1 The Betchworth Kid, 7/1 Ajaan,  Unleashed, 8/1 Presbyterian Nun, 10/1 Sereth, 16/1 Bogside Theatre,  Dunaskin, 20/1 Macorville.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: FIULIN looks open to improvement in this second season and has a decent opportunity to score first time out. Hindu Kush is the only one to have run this term and could be all the better for that outing. Plenty of others have their chance at these weights but quite a few would probably be better off if the ground were to soften

A listed race with 3 non runners reducing the field reducing the field to 7 - still 3 the place on Betfair? Price gapper of sorts in Fiulin who is now, of course, a lot shorter iun the live market
420 BRIGHTON
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Green Beret, 9/2 Mazzola, 5/1 Timeteam, 6/1 Cecily, 8/1 Glamorous Spirit, 12/1 Flamsteed, 16/1 Quick Single.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: John Gosden has made a brisk start to the campaign and GREEN BERET (nap) looks the one runner in the line-up with the potential to be a good deal better than his mark. We didn't learn a great deal about him when he landed the odds at Warwick on his final juvenile start but the stable do well with their few runners here and he can prove too strong for Cecily and the consistent Mazzola.[PSm]
 



7 runner race down to 5 runners now and interestingly, it's the 2nd and 3rd favs who are non runners, surely this makes Green Beret's job easier to place?

430 NOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 13/2 Highland River, 7/1 Cool Hand Jake,  Labisa,  Naizak, 10/1 Cornish Castle,  Spinners End,  Swiss Art, 12/1 Hypnotic Gaze, 14/1 Innactualfact,  Salybia Bay,  Tapis Wizard,  Very Distinguished, 20/1 Jobekani,  Lost In Paris,  Taste The Wine, 25/1 Nimmy´s Special,  Well Of Echoes.

MARKET MOVERS - Taste the wine now 11/1 in places - 2 non runners may be the cause but they are not at big prices

440 HEREFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Greenwich Meantime, 7/2 Boomtown Kat, 13/2 Aim For The Stars,  The Treacle Eater, 7/1 Mayor Of Kilcock, 10/1 Bobble Hat Bob, 14/1 Aspolan,  Maidstone Maresaca, 16/1 Flora Milly, 25/1 Kellys Charm, 33/1 Al Qanoon, 50/1 Semi Detached, 66/1 Monsignor Fred,  Perryston Prince, 80/1 Magic Marmalade, 150/1 Revalley.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Former Chester Cup winner GREENWICH MEANTIME has started his hurdling career rather late in life but he shaped encouragingly at Huntingdon and isn't taking on previous winners this time. Boomtown Kat andAim For The Stars are also shortlisted.[SB]

Fav now 5/4 and Choc Tornton onboard. A Maiden hurdle tells you it's not that straightforward. Also a big field

510 HEREFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Mr Ed, 4/1 Grey Kid,  Lady Myfanwy, 9/1 Howard Howard, 12/1 Mr Goofy, 16/1 The Sneakster, 20/1 Doof,  Hades De Sienne, 25/1 Ashgreen,  Darnil,  Lord Of The Hollow, 33/1 Idbury, 50/1 Scotch Corner.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This doesn't look as competitive as the race MR ED landed at Exeter three weeks ago and Peter Bowen's charge can follow up. Lady Myfanwy and Grey Kid won their most recent points and can fight out the minor honours.[SR]

Fav now odds on shot in this hunter chase. Idbury is 14/1!!

650 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Bluebok, 4/1 Sherjawy, 11/2 Ask Jenny, 6/1 Sofinella, 10/1 Dodaa,  Joss Stick, 12/1 Teen Ager, 16/1 Fizzlephut,  Seductive Witch, 20/1 Ramblin Bob, 25/1 Bishopbriggs,  Garstang

Dodaa market mover at 5/1 and Garstang 10/1


PLACE ONLY SHORTLISTERS


330 NOTTINGHAM - Fiulin a possible here with the non runners
1.3 to place. This is a middle distance event and a listed race - ie they're all pretty smart

420 BRIGHTON - with 2nd and 3rd favs out perhaps Green Beret can take advantage? 1.26 to place. Not run since July 2008

ONE A DAY
Me, I've already done my one a day on Gambo Osaka at 1/16 on to win (11am start), so I went half time/full time - it's come in at 1.3.( well I presume so - 5-0 at the moment and 2 goals scored before half time!) Sorry I couldn't share that, only noticed this morning!!
As to today's selections, I'm afraid I am not confident in either despite the fact they should both be very competitive. So look elsewhere?

Sonderjyske v Copenhagen
Copenhagen are 1/5 to win away from home to bottom of the league. Beat them 4-0 last time they met - top v bottom
Celtic 1/6 at home to Falkirk whoi are bottom of the league. Rangers managed to scrape a 1-0 win so may be tighter than expected
Previous meetings have been 3-0

It's up to you really. Both look worthy of investment instead of horses. 






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