Again i have to write this early which is not an ideal but I have to go out again with family
150 NMKT
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Native Ruler, 5/1 Sopranist, 6/1 Monetary Fund, 7/1 Calypso Bay, 10/1 Ostaadi, 16/1 Devotion To Duty, Golden Rock, Horsley Warrior, Jack Cool, Uniquely Poised, 33/1 Mac Wolf, 40/1 Golden Ring, The Bully Wee.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Monetary Fund easily sets the standard among those that have run but the form is by no means invulnerable by the normal levels expected in maidens at this meeting. NATIVE RULER is the newcomer who seems to have been making the most waves on the gallops and the Cecil stable's recent form is no disincentive.[RA] |
A price gapper BUT purely on connection's reputation and little else given he's a debutant as is all bar 4 of the 12 runners. Very much a lottery really. The price gap does remain in the live betting market
210 CHELT
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Torphichen, 11/4 Tasheba, 7/1 Rory Boy, 10/1 Mountaineer, 12/1 Balzaccio, 20/1 Always Bold, 50/1 Anfield Road.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TORPHICHEN never really threatened to become the first 4yo winner of the Supreme Novices' since Hors La Loi III ten years earlier but he looked good at Sandown the time before and is the solid option now back in his own age group. Tasheba is a dangerous opponent and so is Mountaineer, who is getting weight and has the potential to raise his game.[AWJ] |
Again, quite niggly races with 7 runners and a seemingly strong market leader, BUT these are not mugs as opponents
410 NMKT
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Fantasia, 6/1 Summer Fete, 7/1 Wajaha, 16/1 Damaniyat Girl, Misdaqeya, 20/1 Arabian Mirage, 25/1 Dunes Queen, First City, Smokey Ryder, 33/1 Kaabari, 40/1 Fazbee.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This race is only a stepping stone for Guineas second favourite FANTASIA but she is well clear of the others judged on their racecourse achievements so far and has to be given the vote. Summer Fete has done most to suggest a threat, although Wajaha has a recent recommendation from the AW and several of the rest, including First City and Damaniyat Girl, have shown plenty of promise at a lower level.[RA] |
Group 3 Class 1 so we cannot reaadily dismiss the outsiders. Fantasia emains stong at the head of the market but it is Wajaha who is the mover into 7/2
Only 4 horses are under double figure odds and we can normally trust the prices in such a good grade race to be a generally good reflection of the horse's chances
505 CHELTENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Buck The Legend, 13/8 Lodge Lane, 9/4 Seymour Weld, 33/1 Elbow Lane, 100/1 Roseville.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Seymour Weld's sound jumping should stand him in good stead round here but he is ideally suited by a sound surface and the forecast is therefore off-putting. Lodge Lane now looks a risky proposition over fences and who knows whether blinkers will work again, so this is best left to BUCK THE LEGEND.[AWJ] |
A purely probability race with 2 horses who should be discounted. The remaining 3 cannot be split, and on the assumption that this is a 3 horse race, well it's simply make a choice and hope he finishes 1st or 2nd
For me, I usually, by default, opt for the market leader near the off in the hope I have captured the most fancied horse (or the horse who is the market leader)
750 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: 5/1 Compton Classic, 11/2 Cape Of Storms, Garstang, 13/2 Gold Again, 15/2 Mudhish, 17/2 Lord Deevert, 9/1 Our Blessing, 10/1 Desert Pride, Hollow Jo, 11/1 Music Box Express, 14/1 Peopleton Brook, 25/1 Colombard.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Garstang should go well under a penalty for his win here last week. Compton Classic has claims on his close second over C&D last time, and it would be no surprise to see Lord Deevert run a big race. But it might be worth siding with the unexposed GOLD AGAIN who is open to improvement and makes her handicap debut off a feasible mark. [DM] |
A 12/1 winner for me for the market movers last time he ran , Garstang is now 4/1 favourite and may repeat the dose for those more adventurous place backers although I suspect the big gamble was last week.
920 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Taqdeyr, 4/1 Kilburn, 9/2 Purus, 15/2 Princely Hero, 8/1 Woodcote Place, 11/1 Oceana Blue, 12/1 Miss Mujanna, 14/1 King´s Caprice, 16/1 Kirk Michael.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TAQDEYR (nap) recorded a good time when hammering the opposition in a 7f Southwell maiden last November and could have quite a bit of room to manoeuvre in handicaps off an opening mark of 85. The main dangers are Kilburn and Purus. [DM] |
Like the winner yesterday who was "all red" at the Racing Post website, so is Taqdeyr ,a rock solid 11/10 or evens in places and a price gapper in the live market at time of writing (11am). Another of those who are coming back from a layoff of some 5 months, but in my experience thus far ,the distance between this and the last race, when the money is down, has not really been a .
factor
The assumption, of course, is that the stables have got plenty of work into the horses in the interim.
SHORTLIST
Again doing the blog so early puts me at a disadvantage and thus leaves me open to a losing bet because of a change in circumstances between now and race start which I could have seen had I done the blog later
210 CHELTENHAM - Torphinchen is 1.35 to place .This could be because it's 2 to place but could also reflect the Cheltenham fences and also the fact this is a competitive race.
Favourites, as we see at CHeltenham and Aintree , don't have the best of strike rates
410 NMKT - Fantasia is 1.22 to place and is expected to win ,and thus place of course.
Again all of this is based on performances in Spet 2008 (albeit impressive performances) My concern is that this is a preparatory race and thus not necessarily a must win.Richard Hill's charge, Wahaja ,is the eye catching market mover.
All things being equal, Fantasia, if retaining the ability of the previous 3 excellent performances ,must be an excellent place only option
505 CHELTENHAM - a real 3 horse race and they simply cannot be split.1.49 , 1.52, 1.62 in an illiquid market for the 3 horses (in betting forecast order)
May be worth a gamble on the market leader Buck the LEgend at 1.49 given the big price and the fact that target profit per dayers won't be putting much stake at risk
ONE A DAY
I am really drawn to Buck the Legend's 1.49 as a decent price with only one horse to beat and Paddy Brennan in the plate for Nigel twiston Davies. A race to focus on in running for me as I suspect the 1.49 will reduce considerably with a strong early performance over 3 miles + This is more of a gamble than my usual selections but the price will attract target profit per dayers, although level stakes backers may want to plump for something like Fantasia who should run very well if retaining ability and fully wound up for this. This horse comes with a wealth warning given the fact this is only a prep race and so trainer's focus is on getting a run in rather than winning
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