22/4

All placed yesterday and I went for the obvious - why overcomplicate things? The market move on Man of highworth was marked anda he won at 7/1 - coincidence? hmmm! Soixante did manage 2nd but with that market move, it was a little risky puting him up. Billy Beetroot was 2nd too in a 6 runner race with 3 to place and in hindsight should have been the call at greater odds yesterday given the probability that 3 of the 6 would beat him being quite small
You'll notice both football bets came in yesterday at odds which were far better than the 1.09 about Shabib. Something to think about?
There is another very obvious opportunity today - in Rolf Harris stylee -can you guess where it is?

405 CATTERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Too Much Trouble, 7/4 Keeptheboatafloat, 10/1 Some Time Good, 11/1 Hard Luck Story.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TOO MUCH TROUBLE will have to win this well to justify his string of fancy entries. Keeptheboatafloat, who meets the selection on 3lb better terms than he would in a handicap, looks the danger.[PJ]

Conditions stakes races are usually the first on my list of races in which to oppose short priced favourites, but it is the entries for the fav which is eyecatching - Irish Derby and DAnte!
Again, not run since one race in August 2008 and the basis of the 4/9 is that run and ,of course the opposition. Will 2 other horses beat this one to place?
A very interesting race now with only 3 horses remaining. Too much trouble is 1.06 to place and Keeptheboatafloat is 1.22 to place ( you see this is the value of doing the blog as near to race time as possible - his changes the whole reflection )

440 CATTERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Drawn Gold, 9/4 Trip The Light, 9/2 Ovthenight, 7/1 Gamesters Lady, 12/1 Saluscraggie, 16/1 Titinius, 20/1 Rain And Shade, Samizdat, 40/1 Treetops Hotel.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There are enough potential front runners here, notably the dangerous Ovthenight, to render this a sufficient stamina test for TRIP THE LIGHT (nap), who was confidently backed at this trip on his reappearance when his saddle slipped and represents a stable in red-hot form.[PJ]

A slipped saddle last time out foiled the gamble on Trip the Light - can he gain recompense today? Now fav but a competitive enough race 1.41 to place relects that competitiveness

510 BALLINROBE
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Citizen Vic, 7/2 Rockfield Fox, 8/1 Paddy On The Rye, Speedlock, 12/1 Mr Chad, 14/1 Wherearewegoinow, 16/1 Gougane, Pilgrim Soul, 20/1 Flying Gent, Stream Street, The Preachers Box, Yieldsevendotcom, 25/1 Gleaming River, Obrien, Soprani Supreme,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CITIZEN VIC, winner of a Fairyhouse bumper on his seasonal debut, has a good opportunity to go one better than on his first run over hurdles at Cork. Having made things a little difficult for himself by racing rather keenly on that occasion, he did well to produce a rallying effort that saw him lose out by only a head to Carrigeen King who enjoyed a very significant advantage in terms of jumping experience.\n

In a day of few opportunities, I turn to Ireland. Citizen Vic is 1/3 now ,and we ssaw with Shabib yesterday that if the betting forecast price plummets in the live market then this is a good sign.
Ruby Walsh rides (but is a part of the price drop because people "know" Ruby?)
15 runners and soft ground the concern - only 3 runners sub double figure odds.
A maiden hurdle to boot, and again this is usually laying territory in Ireland
1.08 to place - compare this to Too much trouble's 1.06 with only one to beat and tell me which is the safer bet?

630 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 1/14 Nordwind, 12/1 Galley Slave, 25/1 Autumn Charm, 33/1 Intavac Boy, Ma Burls, Midnite Blews, 66/1 Go Commercial, Little Squirrell, Musical Weld.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It goes against the grain to suggest NORDWIND at likely very short odds after his attitude was questioned when he failed to land odds of 1-4 last time but the opposition is very weak and he should get the job done barring accidents.[FC]

This is the one I was referring to earlier. You'll remember I put up Nordwind last time and he placed 2nd, albeit at 1/4, and the analyst of the race tells us that we don't have to be geniuses to know NOT to back this one again at short odds!
But can we resist?
1/10 now -it will be interesting to see the place only odds which could be quite closely matchd with the win only odds ( I have noticed this before)
4 horses at 50/1 or bigger reduce the competitive field.
Intavac Boy and Galley slave the ones for each way support in a race where, really, we should be looking to back each way. BUT, the question again! Can we find 3 horses to beat this one ( assuming he doesn't fall or get pulled up?)
1.06 to place as against Too much trouble's 1.06 to place with, again, one to beat!
1.19 for Nordwind to win is quite an enticement. Very rarely to 1/10 shots lose races

850 KEMPTON

BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Taqdeyr, 6/1 Nezami, 8/1 Orpenindeed, 10/1 Guilded Warrior, Wigram´s Turn, 16/1 Esteem Machine, Stevie Gee.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TAQDEYR, a half-brother to the classy Iffraaj, is advancing rapidly and ought to be able to follow-up off a mark some 5lb lower than his revised rating. Guilded Warrior, who goes well fresh, and the consistent Nezami may give him the most to do.[SM]

Market mover and previous place only shortlister this fav. Quie a price gapper here replicated in the live market where he is, in fact, now 4/9 (but I am writing some 8+ hours before the race goes off)
1.2 to place and only 2 places here

SHORTLIST
A case largely of the 1.06'ers
405 CATTERICK - as I was writing , one horse was withdrawn leaving 3 fighting for 2 places, one a clear outsider, who remains at the 11/1 quoted when there were 4 runners.
Does this open us up to speculation on Keeptheboat afloat at 1.22. Too much trouble is at 1.06 and is priced equivalent to a 1/10 shot (Nordwind) to plce
A middle distance conditions stakes event. 1 mile 3 - a niggly distance even with 3 runners. We only hope that the front 2 are the ones to fight out the finish in whatever order? If we believe this, then quite obviously, Keeptheboatafloat's 1.22 is a great price

630 SOUTHWELL
(I have glossed over Citizen Vic - 1.06 in a maiden hurdle in Ireland as again the above with only 1 to beat!)
Nordwind's price is eye catching -1/10 to win (1.19 in the win market) but 1.06 to place. As I argued above, the 1.06 on Too much trouble, probability wise, is far more enticing

850 KEMPTON
If he continues progressing Taqdeyr at 1.2 is enticing, albeit only 2 places

ONE A DAY

The choice today whether to risk the 405 CATTERICK being a 2 horse race, in which case the now 1.31 on Keeptheboatafloat is very appealing
I am mindful of the target profit per day, and at 1.06 the exposure of betting bank will be too great
Again, perhaps a cursory glance at the football. CSKA Sofia are 1/10 AWAY FROM HOME with the home side Vihren 14/1 - 1.16 for CSKA
Stats back up the price
Hadjuck Split are 1/10 at home and the away side have not won since December 2008 - 1.12
Dinamo Zagreb are 1.14
Man Utd are 1.28 to win

I can't really put forward a 1.06 for reasons stated, so perhaps today is a day to chance Keeptheboatafloat at 1.33( looks like the price will get bigger as this is an illiquid market) - it's a great risk though given its 1 mile 3 and a conditions stakes event. The hope is the outsider runs to his 11/1
Me? Again I would take CSKA Sofia at 1.16 as my one a day - 1/10 for an away eam should signal a victory (starts at 1pm)