200 PLUMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Quaddick Lake, 11/4 King´s Alchemist, Mac Halen, 9/2 Prince Zafonic, 14/1 Mystic Storm, 40/1 Nimbus Flyer.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Adjusted BHA ratings suggest King's Alchemist should go very close if he stays this longer trip, while Quaddick Lake is 2-2 on ground firmer than good but the verdict goes to MAC HALEN, who can build on his Hereford effort with the step up in distance expected to suit on breeding.[SB] |
The absence of Prince Zafonic opens up the price gap between the 3 main principles and the rest of the field. Very tightly priced though and it's one of those " pick and hope" races .You can take your cues either from the live betting market which still sees Quaddick Lake clinging to favouratism or Spotlight's argument. 2 places and 3 likely contenders mean any selection has just one to beat to place 1.57 , 1.81, 1.6 the front 3 to place
330 PLUMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Vial De Kerdec, 7/2 The Hardy Boy, 9/2 Misbehaviour, 8/1 Silver Serg,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: VIAL DE KERDEC (nap) put up a much-improved performance with a solid display of front-running on his chasing debut here last time and should prove very tough to get past in this smaller field, with the prospect of further progress in this sphere.[SB] |
A price gapper of sorts but again we face only 2 places
4 run and 2 places - one horse at 10/1 can hopefully be discounted.
The fav is a perennial front runner which can be a distinct advnatage in small fields and ensure a place? 1.3 to place in an illiquid market - price may rise
440 TOWCESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Superrollercoaster, 4/1 Crank Hill, 11/2 Green ´N´ Gold, 6/1 Thenameescapesme, 13/2 Blaze Ahead, 15/2 Red Scally, 8/1 Chorizo, 11/1 Arceye, 20/1 Chimichurri, 50/1 The Walnut Tree.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SUPERROLLERCOASTER (nap) arrives here after a win and a near miss on a sound surface over C&D and has strong claims with Tony McCoy booked. The main dangers are Crank Hill and Green 'N' Gold.[ |
8 remain with 2 non runners and the fav is now 15/8 - is this the Tony McCoy factor? There are 2 outsiders who should not enter calculations making Superrollercoaster needing to beat 3 to place.
Negatices - Towcester is an uncompromising track 1.47 to place
520 NEWCASTLE
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Caerlaverock, 11/8 Gilded Age, 14/1 Black River Falls, 16/1 Carnival Fair, Gosforth Park, 20/1 Deauville Flyer, Saffron´s Son, Weetfromthechaff, 66/1 Napoletano.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Alan Swinbank is very good at exploiting his best bumper horses on the Flat and Caerlaverock looks a big threat to GILDED AGE, who still looked as though the experience would bring him on when only just failing at Redcar this month.[PJ] |
A glimmer of hope in a poor day's racing. This maiden race sees 2 dominate at the head of the market
Gilded age has shown progression in his 2 runs to date - last run a head 2nd
Caelaverock is a debutant and must be quietly fancied to be priced as the only real rival to Gilded age
Again this is a 1 mile 4 (middle distance) which can lead to all sorts of problems ( whether engineered or genuine!!) and a maiden race with 3 newcomers who could, of course, be anything?
Is there 3 horses in this field to beat Gilded age?
A sharpish rise in trip for the fav - 1 mile 1 furlong to 1 mile 4 is another niggle on only his 3rd outing 1.15 and 1.23 the front 2 to place
FOOTBALL - Parma v Salernitano 4/11
2nd v 19th in the Italian 2nd division 2-1 on head to heads last time at Salernitano
8 wins and 3 draws in last 11 for Parma
4 wins and 2 draws in last 6 home games for Parma
Against the bottom 3, have drawn twice and won 1-0 at home which does not augur well for a comprehensive home victory. Likely to be a tight affair? Then under 4.5 goals is 1.13
Salernitana lost 6 and drawn 1 of last 7 away matches
Been beaten by all of the top 9 sides away from home, BUT a cautionary note - a lot of 1-0 's meaning perhaps this side can keep things tight - Parma 72% of home games have been under 2.5 goals
Parma unbeaten in all home matches this season
Salernitana lost 11 away - strong recent home form for Salernitana which, if oncorporated into today's away match, could throw a spanner in the works.
The game is in running
SHORTLIST
200 PLUMPTON - another 3 horse race really when looking from a place only perspective - where can we get clues? Well, Spotlight opts for Mac Halen, the live market has Quaddick LAke pinching it, Betfair has Quaddick Lake closely followed by Mac Halen
A v B on Betfair usually is a good clue - they have Quaddick LAke and Mac Halen head to head - do they suspect these 2 will be fighting out the finish?
I must admit I do like the prices again -1.52 is the lowest which can be a good gamble for target profit per dayers as we are putting a stake at risk which is double target profit, so no great shakes if it loses
330 PLUM - Vial de Kerlec is 1.3 ( probably will be bigger) to beat 2 horses to place. Much improved as a chaser - hurdle's form is very poor. Won under today's jockey last time out.
This being a handicap chase, it is likely to be competitive. The outisder is only 12/1. So where can Vial gain the advantage? Well, as a front runner, hopefully he can build up a sufficient enough lead to ensure he, at least, finishes 1st or 2nd - conditional jockeys
520 NEWCASTLE - a little more straight forward this one - with Gilded age having clear advantage regarding experience in this maiden where near market rivail is a debutant. A sharp rise in trip today for Gilded age but the market thinks he'll cope with the slight flirt with middle distances
Only 2 under 14/1 and 1.15 to place (which I think is quite low given all the above)
Parma remain unbeaten at home, but Salernitano have kept things tight against those at the head of the Seria B league table. Only lost by a solitary goal and never been " spanked"
ONE A DAY
Again those who fancy a gamble at higher prices (and especially target profit per dayers) could take a look at the 200 PLUMPTON as the shortest price here to place, amongst the top 3 is 1.55 so, for instance, those whose target profit is a tenner, will only be putting £22 at risk!
It's a difficult choice to make which horse to plump for here -the rain is coming down at Plumpton and Spotlight does mention this as a factor to Quaddick Lake. MAc Halen would be my choice here I think at 1.52, but of course, it's pure luck which one to chose with such a tight head of the market - I have no real reasoning behind favouring this horse, so if you know better, try one of the other 2 - I'm just playing the numbers - he's 2nd fav and mentioned in A v B ( a sign he's fancied to run well?) and shortest priced placer at 1.52-has effectively one to beat to place
the 520 NEWCASTLE looks the most clear cut race today, and even that has niggles with Gilded age (currently 1.15) facing a rise in trip. But in this maiden, only 2 are under 14/1, one of which is a debutant so I would always tend towards the one with experience which is Gilded age
Parma have rock solid home form and are unbeaten at home, and welcome Salernitano today. They have kept things tightish generally speaking when playing those in or around Parma in the league table. In this match, I would back Parma and the draw with a break even on the draw by changing stake until I showed a 0.00 on the draw and profit on Parma as my betting here.
So
gamblers - 200 PLUMPTON - one from top 3 for big place only prices - ideal for target profit per dayers
520 NEWCASTLE - 1.15 golded age in a race where only 2 are under 14/1 ,one of which is a debutant
Parma v Salernitano at 7pm. Back Parma and the draw, loading profit on Parma and 0.00 on the draw - here's a screenshot of what I mean, but it is poor quality
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