elswewhere Red Jazz won, and Native ruler won - the market's clear confidence did not reflect my own but 1.16 to place in such a big field was obviously a big vote of confidence which proved founded
Presque Perdre won as the 1/3 indicated - battered in from 8/15
245 FOLKSTONE
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Billy Beetroot, 100/30 Rathlin Light, 5/1 Chris´s Jem, 6/1 Fatal Attraction, 8/1 Filemot, 12/1 Aegean King, 14/1 Trade Price, 20/1 Louie´s Lad, 25/1 Sandy Par, Tightrope, 33/1 Bilboa, Rightcar Lewis, Sircozy, Wicksy Creek.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BILLY BEETROOT was unlucky to get caught here last time after setting a good pace and can go one better at the expense of Rathlin Light.Filemot and Fatal Attraction are others that make some appeal. |
Billy Beetroot was a palce only selection last time and it ih hoped his place form continues, but of course the market tells us this is competitive 1.58 to place is a very illiquid market . Does relay the competitivenss of this race but with continuous placed form, this maiden could be worth a gamble?
255 HEREFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Tchico Polos, 9/4 Red Admiral, 11/2 Man From Highworth, 12/1 Project Gallery, 33/1 Kirbys Glen, 40/1 Pastek.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks likely to concern RED ADMIRAL and Tchico Polos. With Tcicho Polos having to prove his wellbeing after a break, slight preference goes to Red Admiral who represents a yard that has been in good form.[SR] |
Man from Highworth, you'll recall, was a market mover who was gambled on and won last time out - not priced to go in again this time. Can we then, focus just on the front 2? 1.43 and 1.5 to place the front 2. Again the markets at time of writing are illiquid.
430 FOLKSTONE
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 King Of Defence, 4/1 Fly By Nelly, 5/1 Bussell Along, 7/1 Kyle Of Bute, 9/1 Golden Pool, 10/1 Cavendish Road, Mount Ella, 14/1 Crystallize, Kings On The Roof, 20/1 Josiah Bartlett, 25/1 Princess Rebecca, 33/1 Kamanja, Rose Of Coma,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Michael Bell won this last year and he has another interesting contender in Bussell Along who is one of several unexposed types that make this handicap tricky to solve. Along with Fly By Nelly and Golden Pool she has to be considered, but KING OF DEFENCE gets the nod having finished close behind several subsequent winners on his second run.[GN] |
Fav now 4/5 - for a reason? That's quite a move! 1.24 to place
450 REDCAR
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 La Capriosa, 5/2 Chocolicious, Parisian Gift, 14/1 Raise All In, Thompsons Walls, 20/1 Andrasta, What A Fella, 33/1 Future Gem, Red River Boy, 66/1 Karate Queen, She´s Our Dream, 100/1 Lydia´s Legacy, Mickys Mate.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hard to look much beyond the three market leaders and preference is for LA CAPRIOSA, an in-form filly who knows how to win and who won't be inconvenienced by the return to 6f at this track. [RY] |
In a day with very few opportunities, I'm scraping the barrel including this one - but 3 are 14/1 and under and hopefyuully the race will revolve around these 3 horses 1.4 , 1.68 and 1.68 the front 3 to place
455 PUNCHESTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Garde Champetre, 4/1 Silver Birch, 11/2 A New Story, 7/1 Drombeag, 16/1 Heads Onthe Ground, Shesadoll, Sorry Al, 20/1 Industrious, Oh Jackie, 25/1 Champion Charlie, Ooh Cha Cha, Spare Change, 50/1 Fountainsmemory, 66/1 Baginbun, Pondhill Lad.
This was the race I thought about when I mentioned Freneys Well on Day 1 of the Punchestown festival. As we see here, it is THIS race which should show Enda Bolger's charges as the dominant force here - Garde Champetre is reacquainted with Nina Carberry, Drombeag is the other Bolger runner under double figure odds, and Heads on the GRound is the 3rd.
The market expects a 4 horse race here 1.29 / 1.81 , 1.66 , 1.9 the front 4 to place - again the markets are weak at time of writing and there are marked gaps between layers and backers offers
520 REDCAR
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Topolski, 7/1 Citizenship, Hector´s House, 10/1 Kattar, Omokoroa, 14/1 Antipodean, Spartan Prince, Veronicas Boy, 33/1 Shakin John.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Several of these have plenty to prove, something that doesn't apply to TOPOLSKI, who showed improved form over this trip on quick ground on his handicap debut and reappearance last week and a 6lb penalty (will be 3lb higher in future) isn't necessarily enough to prevent a follow-up. [RY] |
Price gapper here, but with the non runners now this should be emphasised.
7 runner race now so hopefully still 3 the place -middle distance race is a concern but the horse is a Johnston horse and they are typically tough. 1.1 to place in a 3 the place race
525 YARMOUTH
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Thomas Baines, 5/2 Tiradito, 9/2 Misheer, 20/1 Avec Moi, 25/1 Point To Prove, 33/1 Our Georgie Girl, Southwark Newshawk.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Tiradito and Misheer are newcomers to bear in mind but this looks a good opportunity for THOMAS BAINES, turned over in controversial circumstances last week, to repay his backers.[FC] |
If Jamie " I can get a horse placed 4th in a 3 horse race" Spencer gets this one beat, he'll be crucified. Thomas Baines is now 1/3 fav and 7 runner race - 2 places though so we have to trust a not very trustworthy jockety to behave. 1.13 to place
540 FOLKSTONE
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 History Lesson, 13/8 Light Dubai, 8/1 Gold Maha, 12/1 Cluny, 50/1 Mac Wolf, 100/1 Roman The Emperor,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Light Dubai is already proven at this trip and will not prove easy to beat trying to give her stable a hat trick in this race but HISTORY LESSON is bred to come into his own over middle distances this year and can get off the mark in calmer waters than he has had the last twice.[GN] |
History Lesson hasn't run since October 2008, but his place form is standout. Light Dubai has had a recent run. Looks a 2 horse race if the prices are accurate 1.28 the front 2 to place
610 HUNTINGDON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Know The Law, 11/4 Sam Lord, 7/1 L´Homme De Nuit, 9/1 Sir Liam, Viable, 14/1 Unanswered, 25/1 Rowan River, 66/1 Topping The Bill.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks a good opportunity for KNOW THE LAW (nap) to supplement his recent C&D win, perhaps at the expense of Sam Lord and Sir Liam.[SR] |
8 horse race - 3 horses are 50/1 or bigger. Does this leave the fav with a good palce only chance with 2 to beat to place? 1.19 to place
710 HUNTINGDON
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Just Amazing, 7/4 I Have Dreamed, 6/1 Light Yield.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This may not be a sufficient test for Just Amazing, who hasn't run over a trip this short since his sole bumper back in May 2007, so preference is for I HAVE DREAMED who has no such concerns.[SR] |
3 horse race - 2 places and an odds on fav. One to beat to place 1.16 and 1.38 to place the front 2 -again the markets haven't formed well at time of writing
SHORTLIST
455 PUNCHESTOWN
A specialist course and a specialist trip should be within the grasp of said course and distance specialist Edna Bolger and his charges.
Garde Champetre - 1.29 is currently short priced fav but there is a concern regarding the weight over 4 miles +, but this is a specialist horse (there's that word again!) proven at Punchestown and over this course and distance
A new story would seem to be the main danger 1.66
520 REDCAR
Topolski at 1.1 to place -price gapper in a class 5 0-75n handicap -3 to place in this 7 runner race
525 YARMOUTH
Thomas Baines is expected to put a previous ride ( Jamie Spencer in odds on shot unplaced again! shocker!) to bed and finish in the first 2 in this 7 runner race. OF course it's more difficult in smaller fields to "make mistakes" in race riding so we should expect the horse to run to true form today. 1/3 shot now signifies the potential in the horse. A few debutants in this maiden but pressure on Spencer to NOT MAKE ANY MISTAKE today
610 HUNTINGDON - Know the law 1.19 to place here . Sam Lord is 2nd fav under Thornton/King and should be factored in. 3 clear outsiders should help Know the Law place
710 HUNTINGDON
3 horse race - 2 to place and an odds on shot 1.16 to place (Just amazing) I have dreamed is 1.38 to place and could be worth a chance (we are assuming the 6/1 outsider does not factor here)
ONE A DAY
525 YARMOUTH - just from the perspective that lightning cannot strike rate , and even Jamie Spencer dare not get this horse unplaced, it's Thomas Baines for me at 1.13 at present to place in the first 2 . A slight risk given the debutants in this field, but this is a unique set of circumstances
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