210 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Raider Of The East, 9/4 Ferrando, 10/1 Ministerofinterior, 20/1 Leprechaun´s Gold, Ninety Nine Looks, 33/1 Winn Stream.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Ferrando is unlikely to fail through a lack of fitness despite his long absence but he'll do well to contain RAIDER OF THE EAST, whose recent efforts look good at this level.[AWJ] |
2nd fav a non runner- does this open the door for the fav now? 1/2 the fav to win
Only 2 places and a selling hurdle too! 1.17 to place. As we saw with David Bowie's missus, Imaam yesterday, there were only 2 in the betting forecast under double figures , one became a non runner and Imaam sluced up by 7 lengths.
Here, though, we hace a selling hurdle, BUT a favourite who falls into the same criteria, albeit with only 2 places
Winn Stream at 50/1 in places can hopefully be discounted and LEprachauns Gold remains at the price quoted in the betting forecast despite the 2 non runners indicating he should play little part.
230 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Shabib, 2/1 Secret Society, 100/30 Danies Boy, 10/1 Watch Amigo, 16/1 Highgate Cat, 66/1 Bright Wire.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SHABIB\ was surrounded by subsequent winners when third in a decent Newbury maiden on his second outing last season, and looks the one to beat on his reappearance/AW debut for a yard with a 35% strike-rate this month (8-23). The main dangers are Secret Society and Danies Boy. [DM] |
2 non runners and the outsider remains leaving 3 really fighting for 2 places. A maiden though and as with these early season maidens, another returning from a last run in October 2008! 1.17 and 1.41 for the front 2 to place. Again we are seeking to take advantage of non runners. One clear outsider at 66/1 leaves 3 fighting for 2 places and DAnies Boy remains at 6/1. Shabib has not been out for months but has placed 3rd twice and represents the Hills boys who can be relied upon on the turf flat. 1.17 to beat ONE horse - worth the risk?
240 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Quaddick Lake, 5/1 Bolton Hall, Morning Heights, 11/2 Cnoc Moy, 10/1 Mickmacmagoole, Tampa Boy, 14/1 Captain Becket, 33/1 Manly Money.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Quaddick Lake is the obvious starting point having won off a higher mark last week but his overall profile has to temper enthusiasm and he's tackling stronger opposition here. Cnoc Moy is interesting up in trip with McCoy booked but handicap debutant MORNING HEIGHTS is the dark one, representing a yard with a terrific record at the course (33% strike-rate in recent seasons) and now tackling his most realistic assignment yet as a hurdler. Bolton Hall is another who should go well.[AWJ] |
Price gapper but only one real outsider - 2nd highest price is 11/1 in the live market which hints at competitiveness
340 EXETER
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SO BRASH (nap) is hard to get away from after a seriously eyecatching run at Wincanton and he's certainly handicapped to be winning races, with his last success (at this course) coming off an 11lb higher mark |
Price gapper but caution with these shorties in handicaps. Jockey is a Mr Cookson who I have never heard of and he faces the more established professionals.
Price gap remains in live market -the straight 8 means 3 the palce
720 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Respite, 6/1 Breach Of Peace, 8/1 Sweet Possession, 10/1 Yughanni, 12/1 Novastasia, Songful, 14/1 Tikka Masala, Zars Gold, 25/1 Arrivederla, Bari Bay, Love In The Park, 33/1 Jeannie, 50/1 Taste Of Honey,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: RESPITE chased home the top-class Fantasia on her sole juvenile start and, with her yard going well, can go one better on this return.[BDO] |
Quite a price gap but a maiden fillies event so caution. Price gap remains in live market albeit 7+ hours before race is due to start - a fav based on ONE run in June 2008! All hopes are pinned on the form working out and the horse replicating that sole run!!
SHORTLISTERS
Only 2 races really appeal today and they feature in a selling hurdle and a maiden race ,but in each case we are hoping to exploit the non runners reducing likely competitors for the place
210 EXETER - Raider of the east at 1.17
230 LING -Shabib at 1.17
I would prefer the 230 LING as the horse is on the flat. The first race is a selling hurdle which includes obstacles and we saw with Pairc de GCapall yesterday, that even a rock solid fav travelling well only needs to make one mistake and he's out of it
ONE A DAY
Faith in the Hills brothers today, of course all is not perfect with the horse not having run since June 2008 but these guys are flat experienced and Shabib only has one to beat to place
Just a note on the footy today - there are some easier opportunities for one a day from the football I think
An equivalent odds bet today is Hungary and Russia in a doulbe paying 1.17
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