Hazeldene, erstwhile 1980's hi NRG singer, won by 7 lengths in a day where final decisions were important. Hells Bay would have been an obvious contender yesterday and I suppose rightly so, but he was not even placed - this shows the power of ONE BET A DAY and sticking with it.
Earlyish start today and, as you know, the markets may not have revealed everything with regards to non runners etc who can ( as with Almaty Express's race) present us with great probability bets for place only purposes
135 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 American Trilogy, 3/1 Sporazene, 6/1 Alsadaa, 8/1 Songe, 9/1 Alph, 16/1 Cedrus Libani, Numide, 25/1 Gringo.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: If he runs as he did at the Cheltenham and Aintree festivals, AMERICAN TRILOGY would be clearly the most likely winner of this. At the other end of his jumping career, any market support for stablemate Sporazene would be interesting. Alph and Alsadaa appeal most among the rest.[RA] |
Hells Bay aside ( we could, with a bit of investigation , seen that this one was a bit dodgy) Ruby Walsh is normally trustworthy when in the spotlight at a big meeting on an odds on shot in a Class 1 Listed Race 1.21 to place
The straight 8 run here, and there's 2 outsiders who can hopfully be discounted. Not a straight price gapper with Sporazene breathing down his neck.
Looks a great opportunity though
145 MARKET RASEN
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Busker Royal, 11/8 Awesome George, 12/1 Southern Exit, 25/1 Three Boars, 33/1 Lisdonagh House, 66/1 Laybach, 200/1 Bitesize.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Effectively a match between a couple of useful types representing top yards, with BUSKER ROYAL edging the vote receiving 7lb from his main rival, Awesome George.[DH] |
A 3 horse race if the live betting is accurate and 2 places as it's under 8 runners. Southern Exit is the fly in the ointment. I don't really like these races because whichever horse we pick, we want the front 2 to be fighting it out. It did happen yesterday though with Fistral Beach and China Gold 1.2 and 1.37 the front 2 to place
235 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Kalahari King, 5/2 Twist Magic, 4/1 Mahogany Blaze, 5/1 Oumeyade, 13/2 Santa´s Son, 16/1 Andreas, 33/1 Enlightenment.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Twist Magic is the clear form pick but he blows too hot and cold. There is a highly appealing alternative in the leading novice KALAHARI KING (nap), who has done so well at Cheltenham and Aintree, and Oumeyade is not ruled out.[RA] |
Fav hardened into evens in places but this does look quite competitive and only 2 places 1.48 to place
340 LEICESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Racer Forever, 100/30 Winker Watson, 9/2 Vitznau, 5/1 Asset, Regal Parade, 12/1 Shallal, 14/1 Beaver Patrol, 33/1 Carcinetto.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Winker Watson had been working the house down before his bitterly disappointing reappearance and it's impossible to know what to expect this time. His very presence makes this a trappy contest to bet in or, come to that, price up and RACER FOREVER is put up as a tentative alternative. The selection's stable couldn't be in better form and, although he himself isn't exactly the most straightforward, he goes well on fast ground and is unpenalised for his June Group 3 win.[PJ] |
The types of races I pounce upon
Original 8 runner field now down to 5 runners, and we need a quick check on Betfair to make sure it's still paying out 3 the place
Carcinetto can hopefully be discounted as he was originally an outsider. Racer Forever is the betting forecast fav and remains in the race - a good starting point? It must be noted this is another high class field STILL 3 PLACES amazingly enough
Asset1.37
Regal Parade 1.38
Racer Forever 1.34
BUT very illiquid market indeed so these price are likely to rise
415 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Tartan Bearer, 2/1 Pipedreamer, 8/1 Charlie Farnsbarns, 10/1 Bushman, 14/1 Halicarnassus, Steele Tango, 16/1 Buccellati, 33/1 Indian Days.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Sir Michael Stoute saw market leaders beaten in this race in 2005, 2006 and 2007 but he won it last year with Ask and his Derby runner-up Tartan Bearer is probably rather better equipped to deal with the drop back to 1m2f. However, PIPEDREAMER is a serious threat and although he fell just short of the best 1m2f performers last term, this is his distance. A muddling race with no willing front-runner could throw a spanner in the works, but this pair are clear of the rest in terms of past achievements.[RA] |
2 dominate the betting forecast and the live market at time of writing, but Spotlight hints at the potential problems of middle distance races " muddling race"
It's a 50/50 shot this one - take sides with either of the market leaders and hope they place as they cannot be split price wise in what is another high quality race 1.2 and 1.33 to place the front 2
510 RIPON
BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 Signaller, 3/1 Off Chance, 20/1 Cosmic, 25/1 Highkingofireland, The Quiet Genius, 33/1 Avitus, Goswick.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SIGNALLER shaped with plenty of promise on his course debut last week and should not be fazed by the longer trip. Off Chance is the logical danger.[FC] |
As has been the case recently I have plumped for the obvious and not been let down.
Both market principles have only had the one run in this maiden race, and with only 2 places it's a case of faith in the betting market here - 1.09 to place
610 HAYDOCK
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It's quite possible the rest are taking on the impossible in trying to beat Rublevska Star off a mark of 65. However, WHITE SHIFT, who ran out of puff over 6f at Folkestone, doesn't have to worry about the draw this time, is down another 2lb and looks a viable each-way alternative back under a 5lb claimer.[GW] |
We haven't had one for a while - a price gapper in a low ratings handicap and we have a price gapper of sorts in Rublevka Star here. Fancied today after last run in Octobver 2008 1.41 to place but the market is not even formed
As ever on a Saturday we have a full football coupon
| 19:00 | Standard Liege vs Mechelen | 2/9 - 2nd in the league - head to head 0-0 this season -won last 3 - been spanked by 1st and 3rd in league away from home |
| 20:30 | Sporting Lisbon vs Amadora | 1/4 - won 7 and drawn 1 of last 8 - head to heads - comfortable 3-1 away win - away side have lost home and away to top 3 which is a good sign. Also lost last 3 |
| 17:00 | Sturm Graz vs LASK | 4/11 -beaten 1-0 in head to heads this season - poor recent form - not for me |
| 15:00 | Ersboda vs Gothenburg | 7/1 | 9/2 | 1/4 - - a Swedish Cup GAme so how do we know how seriously they will take it - playing away though to a lower division side |
| 15:00 | MK Dons vs Walsall | 1/3 - won 3-0 at Walsall - won last 5 games - Walsall have lost 7 and drawn 2 against top 10 sides away from home (MK Dons today makes it the 10th game) |
| 12:15 |  Rangers vs St Mirren | 4/11 - scottish cup game - have won 2-1 both games in the league |
| 13:30 | Zenit St Petersburg vs Khimki FK | 2/11 - - not on soccerstats but very impressive when I watched them recently - only 3rd game of season so caution |
| 14:00 | Shakhtar vs Chernomorets | 1/5 - 3-0 recent head to heads augurs well - |
| 12:00 | Brondby 2 vs Skovlunde | 2/5 - DAnsih CUp 2nd divison east game!! |
Key resources here for major leagues is www.soccerstats.com and a quick check that the home team have been scoring and winning recently
SHORTLIST
135 SANDOWN - American Trilogy is 1.21 to place and is odds on in a very high class race, but, unlike Hells Bay, is proven
340 Leicester - must be mentioned - 5 runner and 3 places
Asset1.37
Regal Parade 1.38
Racer Forever 1.34
Take your pick really and get the prayer mat out. The simplest way to do this is just to decide - like yesterday you could make your decision based upon the betting forecast favourite ( Racing Forever) and hope that he won't get beaten by 3 horses in a 5 horse race!
Taking your cues from the live market it is Asset and Regal Parade who are the potential movers
510 RIPON - the obligatory bleedin' obvious bet in Signaller 1.09 to place in a race where only 2 horses are under 20/1! The market is not yet fully formed but the signs are good. BUT this is a maiden and a horse is 2/5 based on only one run - this signifies insider knowledge that the opponents must be crap at this stage of their careers
FOOTBALL
Sporting Lisbon at 8pm look to have a good chance of success
Gothenburg are away and 4/11 in the Swedish Cup to a lower league side - team news necessary
Liverpool 2/5 away to Hull in freefall - 2-2 draw last time and Hull have kept things tight at home recently, -it's a case of which stick is the greater persuader today - the stick for the title or the one to avoid relegation. Against top 4, have lost by 2+ goals at home, so you could take a neutral stance and go for over 1`.5 goals? Liverpool should win though
Shaktar would be my final potential choice today
ONE A DAY
From a horse racing perspective all look good bets today but bear in mind that Sandown and LEicester's races are very high class and we cannot readily put a line through any of the competitors as they are there , both in class 1 listed races, for a reason
The easier task to place today, seems to fall with Racer Forever who has to beat 2 horses only to place, one of which is Carcinetto who was the original outsider of the field . BEaver Patrol is the other horse he has to beat - concern that he has not run recently when Asset and Regal Parade both have recent runs. It is worth the risk I feel, with probability on our side, and should he not place then well, c'est la vie, unplaced in a 5 horse race when there's 3 places ! The greater likelihood is he can grab a place
If this doesn't appeal, then American Trilogy is odds on in a class 1 listed race - odds on for a reason?
Good luck with whatever you chose and remember to click an ad!
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