300 HEX
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Touch Of Irish, 11/4 Glencree, 9/2 Lord Larsson, 7/1 Luna Landing, 25/1 Sharadiyn, 28/1 Follow On, 33/1 Leith Walk, Pan Pan, 40/1 Ballysimon, 80/1 Shara Like Magic, 150/1 Uncle Michael, 200/1 Molly Moss.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TOUCH OF IRISH (nap), who showed classy form in bumpers last term, looks to have plenty of potential over hurdles and, while Lord Larsson might have given him a reasonable run for his money if he had stayed on his feet at Kelso, he basically has the most promising profile in this race. The unexposed Glencree is another interesting contender.[SB] |
First price gapper of the day, despite Glencree's close proximity
Only 3 horses are under 33/1 in the betting - focus on these therefore?
Lunar LAnding's absence only widens the gap between the principles and the likely outsiders
Which of these 3 is the most solid placer? Touch of Irish remains odds on in the live market, BUT Glencree is a £230,000 purchase - must be a horse with a little ability surely?1.11 , 1.3, 1.56 the front 3 to place
410 PONTE
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Standpoint, 9/2 Reject, 13/2 Kasaa Ed, 8/1 Seldom, Street Spirit, 10/1 Jimwil, 14/1 Time Medicean, 16/1 Virtuality, 25/1 Highly Acclaimed, 33/1 Kentucky Lakes, 50/1 The Last Alzao, 66/1 Angelo Poliziano, 100/1 Ellies Inspiration, Green Spirit, Honey Berry, Russian Music.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Standpoint sets the standard on a couple of bits of form but there are enough doubts about him to look elsewhere at the likely prices and it may be worth taking a chance on newcomer REJECT who should appreciate conditions being a son of Green Desert. Seldom looked at Thirsk like he has a race in him but this might come too soon |
Price gap upheld in the live market but a brave soul backs this one in a 15 runner maiden I think!Not run since Ocotber 2008 1.48
425 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 You´re The Top, 4/1 Proper, 5/1 My Moment, 13/2 Factotum, 9/1 Cossack Prince, 14/1 Persian Storm, The Black Baron, Uffa Fox, 16/1 Valento, 33/1 Richard The Third, 40/1 Bernabeu, Snark, 50/1 It´s My Day, Miss Cruisecontrol, Pugilist, 100/1 Muffett´s Dream, Tchang Goon, 150/1 Honeycombe.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Quite a useful little race. YOU'RE THE TOP (nap) looks the way to go, having fulfilled previous promise in good style when a C&D winner last time. Even as that form stands, he has strong prospects but there must be a good chance that he has more to offer for his top, in-form stable. With My Moment a bit disappointing last time and unbeaten Proper doubly penalised, front-running Cossack Prince may be the main danger, even if the other jockeys are alive to the danger of allowing him quite as much rope as they did at Plumpton last time. [MCu] |
Price gapper now evens and has Barry Geraghty on board. Some smart rivals though at the head of the market and an 18 runner novice hurdle somewhat offputting 1.3 to place
520 TRAMORE
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Echo Bob, 5/1 Two Left Boots, 6/1 Lord Accord, 10/1 Crowning Moment, 12/1 Chawamba, Cherri Fosfate, Night Mask, 14/1 Runs Riot, Stonehatchetmad, 20/1 Annoy The Saints, Ballygill Gale, Good Karma, Senor Bob, 25/1 Knock Express, Plaicin,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ECHO BOB has been found a good opportunity by his locally based trainer Henry de Bromhead. The Bob's Return gelding did not show a great deal on his first four outings, but produced improvement when second to Inagh Valley at Limerick in December. He ran a sound race when sixth behind his shorter-priced stablemate An Cathaoir Mor in a handicap at Gowran in January, and now looks the one they all have to beat.\n |
Only mentioned as its now evens and has Ruby on board, but as is characteristic today, another big field and a maiden hurdle to boot. 1.26 to place
530 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Or Bleu, 5/2 Muhtenbar, 7/2 Au Courant, 7/1 Manmoon, 10/1 Hill Forts Timmy, 16/1 Cave Of The Giant, 40/1 Merriott´s Oscar, 50/1 Kings Rhythm.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Or Bleu is just about the form pick but his two chase wins have both been on heavy ground, so there is a slight doubt about the suitability of this surface, even allowing for a bumper win on good. As such, preference is for hat-trick seeking MUHTENBAR, whose new training regime seems to have helped him turn the corner with back-to-back wins over fences of late, last time in fine style at Ascot. [MCu] |
8 runners and 2 outsiders at 50/1 and 66/1. Should concern the front 3 1.36 , 1.54 , 1.75 the front 3 to place
540 WINDSOR
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Thomas Baines, 6/1 Be Invincible, Captain Cool, 10/1 Pintura, The Shuffler, 12/1 Monsieur Joe, 16/1 Maoi Chinn Tire, Travellers Kingdom, 20/1 Master Mylo, 25/1 Durham Town, Hachi, House Red, Needsamaite, 33/1 Bush Master, Fascile, 66/1 New York Lights.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not much to go on in the way of form and the betting should be informative, particularly with regard to the newcomers, but THOMAS BAINES shaped as though he would benefit considerably from his debut third over C&D and could prove hard to beat from what is probably the best draw.[FC] |
A price gapper here and Jamie SPencer onboard. Spencer is usually a hold up merchant and I hope this is not the case as this is a 5 furlong event. I hope he really gets him motoring from the front.
Odds on and the stands rail - these are faith bets - this 2 year old is expected to replicate his only one encouraging run and in such a big field 1.24 to place
710 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Lush Life, 6/1 Chesil Beach Boy, 7/1 Double Target, 17/2 Red Rock, 9/1 Major Harry, 10/1 Cashpoint, 12/1 Badster, Hong Kong Harry, Inner Steel, 16/1 Neltara, 20/1 Big Bertie, Merlins Mate, 28/1 Fidelis, 50/1 Bunglasha Hall, Solar Express.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Those that have run, with Chesil Beach Boy and Double Target the pick of them, set just a fair standard so the door is ajar for a half useful newcomer. The paper credentials of LUSH LIFE are persuasive on that count, so he is the token choice. [MCu] |
Unraced in this bumper - price based on connections and pedigree and sales price 1.35 illiquid market
720 WINDSOR
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Souter Point, 4/1 Libel Law, 9/2 Dubai Echo, 10/1 King´s La Mont, Outrageous Request, 14/1 Gifted Leader, Son Of My Heart, Stormy Morning, 16/1 Deuce, 20/1 Stravella, 33/1 Rocky Heights, 66/1 Cross Reef, 100/1 Bestowed, I´m In The Pink, Kirkson, Wannarock.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Probably not much strength in depth to this maiden and SOUTER POINT (nap) has a clear chance of going one better than over C&D a fortnight ago when finding only a well-regarded newcomer too strong. Dubai Echo looked nothing special in two tries last autumn and Libel Law, who is bred to make a much better middle-distance 3yo, is feared more.[AC] |
Fav in this maiden HAS had a recent run out, finishing 2nd to a market mover Pop Murphy I flagged up on "Manic Monday" when all my market movers went mental and all pretty much won!
Bear in mind that ,therefore, Pop Murphy was fancied, Souter Point did well to get so close 3/4 length
15 runners and 1 mile 2 (middle distance races can bring their own problems) are big negatives, but the positive is the 10/11 in places (evens genarally) and the fact there's been a recent run
1.21 to place
SHORTLIST
Evening meetings are sprouting up again which may mean a re-analysis an hour or so before these meetings go off to account for non runners. I am at a distinct disadvantage analysisn evening meetings wome 6+ hours before they kick off
A day characterised by short priced favs based largely on sole runs in big field maidens
300 HEXHAM - default for me to Touch of Irish as one of the front 3 most likely to place bar a fall - up in trip and class today BUT Glencree still niggles for me. I can't get the £230, 000 out of my head - must be a decent prospect and the form is decent enough in this context. The price 1.3 is much better than 1.11 for Touch
720 WINDSOR
A 15 runner maiden over 1 mile 2 furlongs. I am taken by Souter Point's recent good run behind backed Pop Murphy under same jockey. 1.22
Alternatives? Gothenburg are 1.38 to win at home to orgryte who have shipped 9 goals already in only 3 matches. Goth have lost 2 away games and won a home game 6-0
ONE A DAY
The 300 HEXHAM looks the one to be on simply because there's only 3 sub 33/1. Touch of Irish is 1.11 but a chance could be taken perhaps on Glencree at 1.32
The front 3 are dutchable - a £2 target profit, for instance,leaves a £41 stake for target profit per dayers (and using FAirbot)
Touch of Irish I would say looks the solid contender today at 1.11
Gamblers might want to chance Glencree at the tastier 1.32
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