155 CHEPSTOW
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This may develop into a match between OCEANA GOLD and Marchand D'Argent, with the Emma Lavelle-trained gelding edging the vote as he's proven capable on a sound surface |
A move for Shabenito into 16/1 (Alan King horse) may prove significant
Another potential 2 horse race 1.17 and 1.19 for the front 2 to place
210 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Cadre, 4/1 Orpenindeed, 6/1 Mutamared, 7/1 Gallantry, 10/1 My Gacho, 12/1 Alfresco, Secret Night, Southandwest, 14/1 Electric Warrior, 20/1 Lodi, Mut´Ab.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The interesting one here is CADRE (nap) from a yard that has been in fine form this spring. It looks significant that his connections have kept hold of him and likely he has a good deal more to offer now handicapping.[AC] |
Cadre now odds on, but this is a handicap. A very eyecatching price move though
Alfresco 7/1 1.28 to place Cadre. I've seen these heavily punted handicap good things go tits up previously, so wealth warning advised
215 AINTREE
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Kalahari King, 2/1 Tatenen, 7/1 Made In Taipan, 9/1 Doctor David, 10/1 Cornas, Song Of Songs, 40/1 Premier Dane.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: KALAHARI KING sets a very good standard on his Arkle second - Made In Taipan and Cornas held - and is preferred to Tatenen, who started clear favourite but was an early casualty in the Cheltenham race. The ground, granted no overnight change, could be important with the selection appreciating lively ground and his rival unproven on it.[FC] |
Move for Song of Songs. I would expect the market to show in the racing with Kalahari and Tatenen dominating in the end bar falls of course. 1.84 to place the front 2 is very revealing indeed and tells us that getting in the first 2 is nearly an evens chance for 2 price gappers to place.
Now this could appeal as a throwaway bet for target profit per dayers as your stakes will be negligible. Kalahari King has been placed 1st or 2nd consistently although his only run in class 1 grade 1 came last time out ( out of his last 4 races)
Grtound concerns on Tatenen BUT a winner at AIntree before must be an important positive?
235 NEWCASTLE
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Mister Hardy, 9/2 Giganticus, 7/1 Ceremonial Jade, Kings Point, 10/1 Nightjar, 14/1 Fishforcompliments, Sir Xaar, 20/1 Capricorn Run, Osteopathic Remedy, Quest For Success.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Nothing appeals more than MISTER HARDY (nap), who posted a career-best effort on his reappearance when winning with a ton in hand at Doncaster last weekend. He'll be going up by a fair bit more than the 6lb penalty he carries here and is taken to beat Giganticus and Kings Point.[RY] |
Mr Hardy remains strong at the head of the market, but a telling move for Giganticus at 11/4 perhaps? 1.36 and 1.49 the front 2. I have heard a word for Giganticus today
325 AINTREE
BETTING FORECAST: 6/1 Maljimar, 13/2 Three Mirrors, 7/1 Peter Pole, 8/1 According To John, Turko, 9/1 Island Flyer, Star De Mohaison, 12/1 Don´t Push It, 14/1 Aimigayle, Crescent Island, Leading Contender, 16/1 Daldini, Pretty Star, 20/1 Alexanderthegreat, Oakfield Legend, Tot O´Whiskey, 33/1 Ashley Brook, 100/1 Mont Misere.
In the past I did mention keeping an eye on this horse after an initial handicap demolition job. Up in grade and against the big boys, but the interesting question is "how good is he?" and at 6/1 each way I am happy to invest to see if he will find this better grade too much or really be one of those up and coming ones
335 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 9/2 Zero, 5/1 Templer, 7/1 Mendo, Parlesotho, 8/1 Celticello, Qulinton, 9/1 Indian Pipe Dream, 11/1 Arctic Wings, 14/1 Moonlight Music, Pseudonym, So Now, 20/1 Galantos.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ZERO (nap), the least exposed of these and well regarded in his in-form stable, is a strong fancy to score on his return after an extended spell sidelined by injury. He has won when fresh so fitness may not be a problem and he can score at the main expense of Templer, who won well here last time.[DH] |
Zero 2/1 and all red across the screen 1.74 to place
430 NEWCASTLE
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Decorum, Rafaan, 3/1 Ruler Of All, 20/1 Piccolo Pete, 33/1 Grail Knight, Three Gold Leaves, 100/1 Cooperman, Elevate Bobbob, Napoletano, Our Serendipity.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Only three to consider. Decorum is interesting back over this trip for his in-form yard but he's had a few chances and of more interest are RULER OF ALL and Rafaan. Dante and Derby entries suggest the Hills colt is held in some regard and he's open to bags of improvement.[RY] |
4 horses at 100/1 , one at 50/1, and one at 25/1 reduce the competitive field ( if prices are right in this maiden) to 3 horses, the most interesting mover of which is Ruler of All at strong 6/4 / 11/8 market leader
BUT the front 3 have not run since Sept, Oct , Nov 2008 and the hope is the market is correct, and they give their running. Ruler of All is a Hills combination horse so worthy of respect 1.17 Ruler for All
440 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Anacreon, 9/2 Tender Charm, Vamos, 5/1 Moneysupermarket, 25/1 Honey Berry, 100/1 Tightrope.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The market is likely to reveal whether there is any confidence behind newcomers Tender Charm or Moneysupermarket, but probable this is a good opportunity for ANACREON to recoup reappearance losses.[AC] |
Anacreon 2/7 now - strong ,and a recent maiden 2nd (18th March) is encouraging 1.13 to place
510 NEWC
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Mosqueras Romance, 5/1 Full Of Love, 7/1 La Gifted, Rio Carnival, 10/1 Implication, Jawaaher, 14/1 Dante Deo, Haulage Lady, Jenny Potts, 25/1 Off Chance, 33/1 Aegean Pride, Suitably Accoutred, 66/1 Carnival Fair, Knock Three Times.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not a strong race on paper and, while the likes of Full Of Love, Implication and Rio Carnival are probably a fair bit better than the bare form of their respective debuts, each has to show how much ability they possess. So the solid choice is MOSQUERAS ROMANCE, who bettered her debut effort upped to this trip last time and she won't have to improve too much to get off the mark if as effective on grass.[RY] |
Implication now 7/4 favourite , quite a move in another maiden race, not run since August 2008
1.53 to place in an illiquid market
ONE A DAY SHORTLISTERS
A tricky day for me today at first sight with the Aintree fences being unkind to market leaders .
235 NEWCASTLE may be the first race of interest. A market move for Giganticus and a word from MArtin Blakey, but I may still stay with Mister Hardy with Paul Hanagan taking over from an apprentice/amateur rider
430 NEWCASTLE - extremely interesting race, dampened by maiden status and middle distance of 1 mile 2 (and reglar readers will know why I hate middle distance races) Ruler of all a big mover and has leapfrogged into favouratism with the Hills combination on board A 9 runner race has 4 at 100/1 currently and only 3 sub 25/1 BUT this is a tight top heavy market and the hope is that the race will be dominated by the 3 at the head
440 LING - Anacreon is a maiden with a recent run - rare today ! 2/7 and strong at the head of a market with 3 newcomers who could be anything, or could be 3 legged donkeys. 2 places here and 1.13 to place
ONE A DAY
I am axtually taken by AZ Alkmaar at 645pm I think - 1/6 on and prolific goal scorers. This could be the one at 1.22 for me in a day of niggles really.
Of the horses I feel Ruler For All's market move may be telling and at 1.17 he might be worth the risk I think with the Hills boys on board. Of course this is a risky bet with the horse not tasting action for some months and thisbeing a maiden over 1 mile 2 with 2 strong market rivals at similar odds. The hope here is that the market move is the decisive factor
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