205 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Centennial, 11/4 Royal And Regal, 3/1 Tastahil, 8/1 Scintillo, 14/1 Enroller, 16/1 Ezdiyaad, Walking Talking, 33/1 Sereth, Unleashed,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The ground has come right for ROYAL AND REGAL and, unlike last year, he does not have to concede weight all round. In the absence of Spanish Moon, Centennial and the progressive Tastahil are feared mos |
Regal and Royal now 13/8, but not run since September 2008 1.38 to place
250 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Medermit, 11/2 Emmpat, 7/1 Ski Sunday, Snap Tie, 8/1 Noble Alan, 10/1 Sentry Duty, 12/1 Blue Bajan, Culcabock, Secret Tune, 14/1 Harper Valley, Issaquah, 20/1 Take The Breeze, Takeroc, 33/1 Cybergenic, 66/1 Oddshoes.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The ground is right for Emmpat, who is highly respected in his repeat bid despite facing a stronger field than two years ago, but he could be up against a well-handicapped rival in the novice MEDERMIT who last time went so close to winning the Supreme Novices' at Cheltenham. Top-weights Blue Bajan and Snap Tie have their ground again, while Noble Alan may well be capable of better and the 4yo Ski Sunday has been making dramatic progress.[RA] |
Not out of the last 2 in 5 runs and currently 9/4. Another Robert Thornton/Alan King combination but a slight risk given field size(15) and the fact it is a handicap and a high class one at that. No market movers though 1.88 to place
345 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Shaweel, 3/1 Finjaan, 4/1 Cityscape, 6/1 Vocalised, 8/1 Nasri, 12/1 Elnawin, 14/1 Sri Putra, 16/1 War Native, 25/1 Icesolator, 100/1 Folsomprisonblues,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There was not much between Finjaan and Shaweel in the Dewhurst and on today's ground it will be no surprise if Goldolphin's acquisition is able to turn the tables, but these conditions should be ideal for Irish raider VOCALISED and he may be able to make his proven racefitness tell. Cityscape is most interesting of the remainder |
Bolger/Manning have made a superb start to the Irish Flat season and are represented by Vocalised, now the fav. Finjaan the significant non runner - another highly competitive race though 1.44 to plce
8 runners now - 2 at 25/1 or bigger.
Shaweel under Dettori looks the other to consider here with near rival a no show - 1.67 to place
415 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Arabian Flame, 9/2 Broad Cairn, 5/1 Bennelong, Clockmaker, 7/1 Bridge Of Gold, Mehendi, 14/1 Do The Strand, Merdaam, 20/1 Present Alchemy, 33/1 Chic Shanique, Ghaayer, King´s Masque, Quinsman, Secret Hero, 100/1 Princess Soraya.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Market confidence behind Clockmaker or Bridge Of Gold would be interesting in what looks the lesser of the two divisions but the step up to 1m will suit ARABIAN FLAME and he can get hs 3yo career off to a winning start.[AC] |
Clockmaker a significant move into 13/8 favourite - a debutant though so we must trust the market here 1.43 to place
440 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 El Dececy, 100/30 Secret Night, 6/1 Campli, 8/1 Daaweitza, 10/1 Follow The Flag, Middlemarch, 12/1 Smarty Socks, 14/1 Buy On The Red, 16/1 King Kenny, 20/1 Fiefdom, 33/1 Prize Fighter.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Secret Night has plenty in her favour in a race lacking too many with solid credentials but things might not fall quite so kindly for her here as they did last time and EL DECECY is taken to make all the running under her crack rider. Campli also has the assistance of a good rider and makes more appeal than his stable-companion Daaweitza.[GN] |
Nina Carberry takes the trip across the Irish Sea to ride El Dececy, and she really is a great rider. This horse is a front runner who, it is hoped, with Nina's assistance, can blast out of the gate and at least place. Not my usual selection and may not reach the shortlist but interesting for those who like to gamble on less obvious placers 1.77 to place in an illiquid market
455 BANGOR
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Wild Is The Wind, 4/1 Proud Andees, 9/2 Run For Paddy, Ursumman, 10/1 Buckby Lane, Master John, 12/1 Whistling Straits, 25/1 Cassia Heights, 50/1 Caislean Na Deirge.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Former smart staying handicapper Run For Paddy is not the force of old and while he retains enough ability to win one of these, he might struggle to prevent WILD IS THE WIND, who was a rising star in this sphere last season, winning this for the second year in succession. [DH] |
A horse I remember from last year, largely because it's a David Bowie song, Wild is the Wind has been spanking opposition in hunter chases with some huge distance victories last term.
No concerns with Miss G Hutchinson who has partnered the horse in all recent runs. 3 miles and a hunter chase are the negatives but again we could get a competitive price in the place market.
1.47 to place and another not fully formed market
500 NOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Gillburg, 6/1 King´s Approach, 7/1 Duke Of Rainford, 10/1 Military Call, 12/1 Kings Aphrodite, 16/1 Flaneur, Roi De Vitesse, 20/1 Secret Millionaire, 25/1 Amoureuse, Ignatieff, 50/1 Absher, 66/1 Ginger Ted.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The betting should give an idea of the threat posed by the newcomers, but GILLBURG looked a winner in waiting here last week and is likely to be hard to beat.[FC] |
The first price gapper of the day and in a maiden race. price gap remains in the live market which is encouraging. This fav has had a recent run which is encouraging, and in April. With 8 debutants (who could be anything!) we must put faith in the bookmaker's odds being an accurate reflection of the newcomers' potential
Ignatieff and Military CAll the potential market movers at this early stage. 1.19 to place
535 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Gilbarry, 7/2 Witherspoon, 7/1 Rollwiththepunches, 8/1 Sir Frank, 9/1 Gunpoint, 14/1 Storm Brig, 16/1 Sunarri, Topo Gigio, 20/1 Red Tanber, 25/1 Master Beau, 100/1 Carters Rest.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: GILBARRY is hard to oppose after his hugely impressive winning debut and has the added bonus of being proven on lively ground. Rollwiththepunches had good debut form before the selection left him for dead and may appeal to the each-way thieves.[PJ] |
"HArd to oppose" so says Spotlight. Only 3 under 10/1 and this one is now odds on 1.28 to place
710 NOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Mt Kintyre, 3/1 At A Great Rate, 5/1 Bagber, 10/1 Emeralda, Spensley, 20/1 Kendalewood, 33/1 Rossatron, Tropical Bachelor, 66/1 Speak Freely.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Although he threw away a winning chance when hanging badly at Pontefract last week, MT KINTYRE is at least proven over this trip which is enough to give him the edge in an uncompetitive event.[ |
I do like Saleem Golam BUT I don't like middle distance races. A favourite in another maiden who has progressed well with the last run.Only 3 under 12/1, obviously the horse has ability and the drop to class 6 sees this horse at odds on now 1.14 to place - market not formed
ALTERNATIVES
Partizan Belgrade v Javor - 1.26
Peterborough v Stockport - 1.41 - BUT Peterborough showed nerves as they were similarly priced last week but only drew.
Brondby v SonderjyskE - 1.27 - 2nd placed against bottom - spanked them 6-0 last time out - have won at home against the bottom 7 - away side have lost against top 3 away from home by 2 goals or more - Brondby only 3 points behind Copenhagen so this game has some incentive for them to win
CSKA Sofia v Pirin Blagoevgrad - 1.13
Red Bull Salzburg v Mattersburg - 1.25 - top versus 2nd bottom - head to heads - won 4-2 away at Mattersburg this season.Mattersburg away have drawn against mid table sides but been well beaten by the top 4
Lugano v Locarno - 1.26
Atl Madrid v Numancia - 1.38 - terrible away form for Numancia, and probably a game to back Atl Madrid and lay off after they hopefully score first.
Club Brugge v Mons - 1.28 - 3rd against bottom. Club Brugge have not lost against the bottom 8 and only drawn 2 home and away.Mons have lost all and drawn 2 away from home
AZ Alkmaar v Vitesse - 1.27 - won all bar 2 games (drawn and lost) at home, BUT AZ have already wrapped up the league with a win last week away from home. NOTHING therefore to play for and the only incentive is he integrity to place to their capabilities for other sides who may still have something to play for. A risky proposition with no incentive for the home side
SHORTLIST
As has been the case recently ,some horses have really been backed strongly AFTER he blog has been written. I cannot of course recount these in the blog and do use them for my target profis per day. Given this is a Saturday, do look out for these market movers for place only betting
Brondby v SonderjyskE at 1.27 looks a superb bet today - team is incentivised to win, beat opposition 6-0 at their place, and the price is ebtter than anything we can get on the place market today
455 BANGOR - 1.47 is usually too big for consideration but this horse ,Wild is the Wind, has been superb under today's jockey last year in hunter chases .Jumping a slight concern for he horse, as the race analysis has repeated in recent runs. Hasn't fallen though
500 NOTTINGHAM - Gillburg at 1.19 is the only real price gapper today and has to be considered on the back of an encouraging run last time out. This is a maiden though and this horse has only had the one run.Only a 2 year old so a repeat performance of only run has to be taken on trust. Why is he odds on? That is the question. The bookies must think the debutants are not a threat. Ted Durcan on board instead of Neil Callan today
710 NOTT
Mt Kintyre 1.14 in an illiquid market - this may rise as the day progresses. 3 horses at 25/1 or bigger and one at 66/1 can hopefully reduce the 8 runners to 5, 3 of whom will place.
Can Mt Kintyre find 3 horses to beat him in this field? If you think not, then this is a decent place only bet
ONE A DAY
Must be the Brondby match today at 4pm. It goes in running and is an ideal opportunity for me to back the match odds and lay off after the first goal is hopefully scored by Brondby. Alternatively, just keep the bet running, but I prefer trading. You can trade with target profit per day if you presume there will be a 0.10 to 0.15 point drop after (hopefully) Brindby score first (ie 1.26 at the off - after the first goal, the market could show 1.11 for Brondby?
From a horse racing perspective, Mount Kintyre should have won last time out, having touched 1.01 in running but swerving badly after spotting the paddock gates right near the finish (beaten a head by short priced odds on fav so that last run very encouraging). He would be my place only bet were it not for Brondby AS LONG AS these quirks are ironed out. Given the shennanigans last time out, perhaps an eye on trading would be wise with this horse. Success would seem to remain in the hands of Saleem Golam, and this one, if repeating the great run last time(minus the swerving!) should place in a race where we can hopefully discount 3 runners.
PLEASE REMEMBER TO CLICK AN AD TO KEEP IT FREE. THIS HAS TAKEN ME OVER AN HOUR TO DO AND I'VE STILL GOT THE MARKET MOVERS TO DO!!
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