Last day with the nephew and niece today so I can return to the market movers and do better analysis here without time constraints
325 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Distiller, 5/1 Manadam, 11/2 Classic Act, Leac An Scail, 17/2 Mighty Massini, 12/1 Rightway Star.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not the strongest of handicaps for the money on offer and a good opportunity for DISTILLER to regain the winning thread after a very solid effort in a better-contested race than this at Bangor last time. Leac An Scail may be next best. [MCu] |
1st race of interest for me for place only betting and a price gapper in the betting forecast.
A 3 mile handicap hurdle and only 2 places. Also the outsider is 10/1 indicating a tight affair.
How accurate is THIS price gap? 1.6 to place and 2 places - a BIG price which tells us this may be a race to take the fav on?
415 THIRSK
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Steelcut, 5/1 Bo McGinty, Discanti, 13/2 Nomoreblondes, 8/1 Equuleus Pictor, 9/1 Rasaman, 10/1 The Tatling, 14/1 Angle Of Attack, Mambo Spirit, 20/1 Woodcote.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A few of these often force the pace and STEELCUT (nap), who shaped encouragingly on his reappearance last Sunday, should get a nice lead before quickening through to take advantage of a winning mark. Stablemate Bo McGinty and the relatively lightly raced Discanti could also be in the mix.[SB] |
A winning handicap mark so says Spotlight . Cut to 13/8 fav at present which is a decent enough sign. All depends on Steelcut out of the stalls. If he can get a good lead then he should put this to bed, but favs in handicaps especially with horses priced to be competitive , is a worry. 10 runners down to 8 runners now 1.42 to place and 3 places
455 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 100/30 Phillipina, 4/1 Hukba, 5/1 Piquante, 6/1 Fleurissimo, Natural Flair, 8/1 Rare Virtue, 14/1 Dark Quest, Inhibition, Light Dubai, 20/1 Fisadara, Iketi, 33/1 Haafhd Time, Megavista, 100/1 Arabian Pearl, Carrazara, Tres Chic.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There was a lot to like about HUKBA when runner-up on her Leicester debut last October, with Piquante and Fleurissimo behind, despite seeming unfancied and she heads the list in a field of promising sorts here. Phillipina, Natural Flair and newcomer Rare Virtue are others to consider.[AC] |
Like Thirsk, a card littered with maiden races, and like yesterday, horses returning from a long lay off, priced to win based on those runs months ago. Phillipina is one such horse, and what interests me is the price gap in the LIVE market. EVENS in the live market with 7/1 the next best price is quite something, BUT so is the fact this is a 16 runner maiden over 1 mile 2 furlongs
Only had one run, albeit in class 2 and all confidence based on that one run!! 1.35 to place in such a big field is a positive BUT not in the Delegator category yesterday. Next best is 2.4 in the place market. A race with many question marks though
510 AYR
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: UNGARO will with this with something to spare if able to show even a proportion of the ability which saw him finish second in the Sky Bet Chase as recently as this January. He hasn't fared anything like as well since but if he cannot capitalise on the drop into claiming company here, retirement will surely beckon for this one-time Grade 1 winner. If he does blow out again, Andrew Nick is much the likeliest one to take advantage. [MCu] |
Clutching at straws here in this terrible 3 mile claiming chase. A look at the betting forecast and 3 only are under 16/1 BUT only 2 the place
Will Ungaro show true colours? Claiming races are normally races to concentrate on opposing the obvious but can we make an argument for the front 2? 1.66 says it all really in this claimer.
525 SEDG
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Caravel, 9/2 Can´t Remember, 5/1 Treeko, 12/1 Waterloo Corner, 14/1 Nick The Dreamer, 16/1 Dium Mac, 25/1 For A Dancer, Silver Syd, 50/1 Auberge, Glorious Gin.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Very useful Flat recruit CARAVEL (nap) has made a decent transition to hurdles, likes fast and ought to possess the quality to defy a double penalty at this level.[BDO] |
1/2 shot this fav and one I have place backed previously where he didn't disappoint. Priced to go in again under a trustworthy jockey 1.11 to place and 3 places .A double penalty the concern BUT the market doesn't seem overtly concerned with that!
535 CHELTENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Bensalem, 5/1 King´s Forest, 6/1 Our Bomber Harris, 14/1 Al Co, Quentin Collonges, 20/1 Theophrastus, 33/1 Prince Of Gdansk, The Black Baron.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BENSALEM would probably have been favourite for the Albert Bartlett but for a dirty scope ruling him out of the festival and, if still in the same form as when second to Diamond Harry here in January, he should have too much for these. Not that this promises to be an end-of-season stroll, as King's Forest is another with his share of potential and Quentin Collonges could also make his presence felt at greater odds if maintaining his momentum |
Well the afternoon hasn't brought too many good qualifiers. Bensalem is a Choc Thornton/King horse and you know how much I admire Choc as a jock.8 runners down to 7 and 3 places hopefully still 1.09 to place and 3 places in this 7 runner event - 2 horses at 40/1 or bigger can hopefully be disounted leaving 5 running for 3 places
555 SEDG
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Role On, 5/4 Striking Article, 8/1 Naturally Inspired, 25/1 Regal Confusion, 50/1 Desert Maze, Ebac, 66/1 Fortune´s Fool, Moyne Pleasure, 100/1 Overlaw.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ROLE ON beat Striking Article in a better chase at Musselburgh and, given the former's safer jumping, the form may well be upheld. Best of the rest is Naturally Inspired.[BDO] |
They're all coming this evening! If Sptlight is accurate, then Role On is the one of the likely 3 candidates to win and thus fight for the 3 places 1.18 and 1.2 the front 2 to place in the first 3
Jumping the concern with the front 2 - Role On a faller and pulled up quite recently under the same jockey ( lady jockey) Striking article, then ,looks a better bet with a highly progressive profile form wise 13421.
Both favs down in class which should tell.
JUMPING, therefore ,the KEY determinant to these 2 placing
The mover is 3rd fav into 9/2 at present - significant? If getting involved we hope the 3 most likely will be the 3 at the finish, barring a fall of course
610 CHELT
BETTING FORECAST: 1/3 Chapoturgeon, 9/4 Gauvain, 33/1 Take It There, 50/1 Jack´s Lad, 66/1 Kinkeel.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Two falls in five runs over fences is a sobering statistic for those willing to play at such prohibitive odds but CHAPOTURGEON looked as safe as houses when disposing of a big field here at the festival and there's very little temptation to take him on, even competing over a trip short of his best. Gauvain is the only alternative as, unless this turns out to be eventful, the others are way out of their depth.[AWJ] |
And another! A fav who has fallen twice - if he doesn't fall, he places - simple as! For the more adventurous Gauvain looks the obvious alternative to place 1.13 and 1.27 to place the front 2. 1.13 is a big price for a 1/3 shot and does show that the market is aware of vulnerabilities in the jumping department. 2 horses at 50/1 or bigger can hopefully be discounted. Each way thievery on Take it there - 16/1 in places could be ominous OR just a way for the bookies to sustain some turnover in this likely 2 horse match up
Gauvain at 1.27 is very interesting
Key again is JUMPING for the market leaders - they stay upright, we have a great chance of them placing
SHORTLIST
525 SEDG - Caravel at 1.11 to place posssesses a degree of consistency. A double penalty here but 1/2 in the live market exudes confidence in the horse.
535 CHELT - BEnsalem has Choc Thornton on board and is a stingy 1.09 to place - albeit in a 7 runner race with 3 places and 2 clear outsiders.
555 SEDG - front 2 stand out but jumping is the key to success here. Personal preference for Striking article. The hope is this will be a 3 horse race - 1.2 to place
610 CHELT - Chapoturgeon and Gauvain should fight this out barring a fall. Gauvain at 1.27 looks a great bet but has risks attached. The other 3 horses look out of their depth here BUT Take it THere has seen some small support. Safety with Chapoturgeon at 1.13?
ONE A DAY
I have discounted the flat selections because they are predominantly maiden races and we have to trust the market and the horses' wellbeing after an absence.
So we are faced with the jumps where ,of course, JUMPING seems key with all selections bar Bensalem and Caravel.
Any of the shortlisters today, I think, have great place chances.
Obvious one is Bensalem at 1.09
BEtter odds (and a degree of greater risk) on Striking article at 1.2 and Gauvain at 1.27 ( the hope being that this is a 2 horse race) For those willing to take a risk, the enhanced odds on these may be attractive.
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