31/3

You see why I go on about Aiden o'brien ! - George wins aat 5/1, Poet at 9/4 and the other 2nd and in heavy ground! - this augurs well for the O'Brien/Murtagh combination this Irish Flat season.
3 into 1's both won and the big priced top weight Nicky Tam was unplaced
Footy wise ,Chelsea won 1-0 for anyone who went for the correct score dutch - overs came in the Real match

210 lingfield
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Samuel Charles, 5/2 Climate, 6/1 Victor Trumper, 10/1 Golden Spectrum, Hansomelle, 12/1 Personify, 16/1 Bandits Pistol, 20/1 Cavallo Di Ferro, 25/1 Feelin Irie, 33/1 Valart, 50/1 Cumae .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not many of these come here in any sort of form and despite their penalties, Climate and SAMUEL CHARLES look the pair to concentrate on. Marginal preference is for the latter, who is always a force to be reckoned with in plating compan

With Climate out, can we assume Samuel CHarles has got rid of his main rival? NOTE - this is a poor class of race!

410
Maslaha

Easy to back but shaped with plenty of promise on debut and confirmed that impression when facile winner over C&D last time; mark of 80 may not do her justice and both surprising and disappointing if there isn´t much more to come; stable going well and looks the one to beat.

Worth support albei at odds on - looks assured of a good run if Spotlight's confidence is to be taken onboard

SOUTHWELL

300
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Copperbottomed, 4/1 One Called Alice, 5/1 Our Sunnie, 10/1 Her Name Is Rio, Indecision .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Four of these meet on about the same terms as would have been the case in a handicap, the exception being Indecision, who has a bit to find. One Called Alice is a player if getting one of her better starts and able to hold a position down in trip but COPPERBOTTOMED is clearly the one to beat

"clearly the one to beat" - trigger words - again poor price but worthy of support

SOft ground at WIncanton

Again a poor day and we just have to remain patient while waitning for better opportunities

3into 1
2 surprising winners yesterday given the ground

300 Southwell - Copperbottomed



Nantes look backable at 2/1 against Troyes who got hammered by Le HAvre recently - NAntes last away game was a draw only because of a last minute equaliser

30/3

I did warn you about the claiming hurdle producing a surprise and in hindsight on a busy Saturday I could have been a bit more choosy. BRave prospector was highly disappointing. THe early 7/2 for Kandidate didn't last long as he was knocked into 9/4 and won well.
Multi tasker was unplaced but it was very interesting to see one £500 bet on the horse at the Sportinglife website - some kind of a run was expected that's for sure!
Dutch at NAd al sheeba broke even.CREACHADOIR unplaced as was Jalil in a race where Curlin was magnificent.
A poor day on the gee gees but footy was much better. For the adventurous few who went with Bolton I hope you used Betfair as 2-0 up against 10 men allowed for superb trading out DESPITE THE FINAL SCORE. This is the massive advantage of trading.
Elsewhere overs in MAn Utd, West Brom, wins for St Mirren half time/full time, lay of City came off, lay of West Ham came off, lay of the draw in Old firm and correct score 1-0 at a decent price despite the dutch
A few losers with HAmburg, the arse half time/full time bet and unders in the Derby match. Adebeyour didn't start so I didn't put him up in the to score market.

Again taken in by too many bets on a Saturday hence my words in the conclusion about being choosy.

I hope you saw yesterday why I don't like betting in soft ground as was the case, through the day, at a number of venues - ill discipline yesterday.

CURRAGH - HEAVY
Flat season kicks off with a debutant maiden in heavy ground in Ireland - I'll get me coat!
A layer's race if ever there was one!
The first crop of Aiden O'Brien horses show themselves this season in the 2nd race with Georgebernardshaw but at 3\1 in heavy ground in a 25 runner maiden he does not rate as a back bet today and may be too big for a lay bet. Despite the fact it's Aiden O'Brien, I would veer towards laying given the race type and field size and ground conditions

Aiden O'B rien has 2 in the 355 with the fav Savethissance for me under number one jockey Jonny Murtagh and Ice Queen at 25/1 under Jamie Heffernan. I will chance Ice Queen at projected 25/1 each way given the heavy ground and the trainer.

ANother runner, Poet , is provisional favourite in the last race of the day where the heavy ground will have got worse.

So it's just Ice queen at 25/1 for me today in the hope heavy ground will produce a shock. I'm not expecting a return though so stakes will be kept to a minimum

HEXHAM - heavy

I must learn from yesterday and my insistance on betting in soft ground and really dismiss Hexham from a backer's perspective
A day for concerted laying of the short priced favourites here in heavy ground, with preference for the extendeddistances and monitoring in running

Soft ground at the other venues leaves me with no real bets at all today save the one speculative one on Ice Queen at the Curragh

3 int0 1

425 Hexham - Hush tiger
230 Kempton - Leading attraction

You've already read my thoughts regarding ground conditions but this mechanical system doesn't account for them

TOP WEIGHTS

Far too busy yesterday to have included them but will note them for the record today
240 HEXHAM - Nicky Tam



FOOTY
Chelsea v Boro the standout today and again CHelsea do not lose at home (as was seen in the Arsenal game last week even when they went a goal down). At 15, Boro are unlayable and at 1.3 Chelsea are not backable so what way in?
I might have a bit of fun with a mug punter scorecast on Drogba 1-0 at 23, Drogba 2-0 at 23, Drogba 2-1 at 36. Highly speculative indeed.

THe over 2.5 goals could have been contemplated but I have a worry this mught be a 2-0 1-1 or 1-0 tight game. As I've said before Boro are like Liverpool were as betting propositions - ie unreliable and difficult to read.

Draw/Chelsea at 4.8 appeals although I find it difficult to get an angle in

Similar with Liverpool v Everton. General bias toward the home side?

Barcelona cocked up yesterday after being 2-0 up BUT can Real take advantage against Sevilla at home tonight. 8/11 tells you it'll be very difficult. This should be an over 2.5 goal game (to trade as usual) with 2 attack minded teams. A neutral bet is perhaps the best one with results fluctuating in the head to heads.

Today I will pretty much write off as a betting day I think - all the football opportunities came in one burst yesterday and if there's no real betting opportunities then we can be selective and have a rest. Similarly with heavy and soft ground prevailing in all races it's a case of leave alone ( as I should have done yesterday) bar Ice QUeen at 25/1 incase heavy ground messes with the market leaders.

30/3

I did warn you about the claiming hurdle producing a surprise and in hindsight on a bus

BANGOR
230
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Delightfully, 5/2 Just Beware, 6/1 Rosie´s Glory, 14/1 Queenlaya, 33/1 Miss Champagne, Wensleydale Web, 50/1 Florida Diamond .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: If ex-French DELIGHTFULLY can't make short work of these modest rivals she's not going to have much of a future as a hurdler.[DH] it's always interesting when it seems that a horse must win really to continue in the hurdling game and if you are taken by Spotlight, then that's the case for Delightfully. BUT this is a claiming hurdle- I will be speculative as usual and a straight £10 level stakes on the front 2 produces a nice payout on Just Beware and a £2 loss on Delightfully. CAUTION - as a claiming hurdle we may have a surprise but I feel this is worth a punt. 1.76 on Delightfully - £14, and £10 on Just beware at current 3.5 will produce a break even and not a loss on Delightfully There are a couple of perceived 2 horse races in the 300 and 545 and if you're convinced that ,yes, this should involve the front 2, then play around as I did in the above example and select one to chose with perhaps a break even /slight loss on the other. With 3 the place in the 300 race, we will get unnaturally inflated odds for the other horses -perhaps place only dutching on Island Key and Never Ask at 3.25 and 3.65 -break even if one places - if something happens and both place, it's a nice pay out DONCASTER 235 BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Brave Prospector, 11/1 Game Hunt, Moothir, 12/1 Carpe Diem, Louis Seffens, Savannah Poppy, 14/1 Harrison George, 20/1 Centenerola, 33/1 Bilboa, Spirit Of A Nation, 100/1 Grey Command, Your Golf Travel . SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BRAVE PROSPECTOR has to win this if he's to justify entries in the English and Irish 2,000 Guineas and his soft-ground Group 3 fourth last year sets a good standard for the newcomers to aim at Significant price gapper - top RPR - top topspeed - postdata selection - 12 from 14 tips - looks solid - takes a drop in class NEGATIVES - 154 day absence - untried at the course - Another horse who MUST win (like Delightfully earlier) . A poor price but worthy of support, particularly to follow in running and lay off in increments. High class racing at Kempton and it is the Class 1 listed race I'll focus on 345 BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Kandidate, 11/4 Diamond Tycoon, 4/1 Great Hawk, 6/1 Spice Route, 8/1 Grand Passion, 10/1 Illustrious Blue, 16/1 Pur Sucre, 50/1 Impeller . SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Last spring Diamond Tycoon looked one of the most fascinating horses in training and it will be interesting to see if he can pick up the threads after his absence, but his stamina for today's trip has to be taken on trust and preference is for the rock-solid credentials of KANDIDATE As usual, the betting forecast for higher quality events should be more accurate . We have an each way angle with the straight 8 and Diamond Tycoon at 2/1 in the early price market. Of more interest is the "rock solid credentails" of Kandidate - 7/2 is an enticing price and an each way prospect for me. As ever, none of the horses can be readily dismissed given the quality of the race. Kandidate Battle-hardened veteran who has won both his starts here and suggested he was as good as ever when runner-up in Group 3 in Dubai on return last month; down to Listed level for first time since 2006 and likely to prove tough nut to crack for in-form yard. 415 BETTING FORECAST: 100/30 Gone Hunting, 7/2 Sub Prime, 4/1 Asaint Needs Brass, 8/1 Imperial Skylight, 10/1 Grand Honour, Old Father Zieten, 14/1 Comanche Trail, Dr Wintringham, 16/1 Buckle Up, 20/1 Multi Tasker . SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The betting should provide a few clues to the ability of these ten newcomers. Bill Turner proved once again his talent for readying cheaply bought newcomers when Sally's Dilemma won the Brocklesby and he rates GONE HUNTING her equal. The low draw is not ideal but she is likely to know her job better than most and is preferred to Sub Prime.[FC] Multi tasker currently 10/1 in a debutant maiden whose betting market will tell all. Again, this 10/1 has to be replicated at the off. If the price drifts then it's a no bet. One non runner at a potential 10/1 should not be the cause of this price cut for Multi tasker NAD AL SHEEBA A cracking card with Curlin the stand out here 140 BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Blackat Blackitten, 11/4 Diamond Stripes, Elusive Warning, 12/1 Baharah, Golden Arrow, 20/1 Barcola, 33/1 Aleutian, Green Coast, Rosberg, Zakocity, 40/1 Halkin, 50/1 Brave Tin Soldier, 66/1 Jet Express, Watch What Happens, 100/1 Don Renato . SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Saeed Bin Suroor has won this six times since 1996 and he has a strong hand with progressive ELUSIVE WARNING and Blackat Blackitten. The pair finished first and second in the Burj Nahaar over C&D last time and it's the strong-travelling Elusive Warning, who had his first run over this trip that day and is the most unexposed runner in the field, that is fancied to confirm placings. The other danger in a race lacking strength in depth is Diamond Stripes, who drops in trip but looks sure to go well on his UAE debut if handling this surface 3 horse race in prospect? Again I can level stakes dutch the front 3 and reduce the stake on Diamond stripes to leave a break even on that one with profit on the Godolphin pair Blackcat and Elusive 355 BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Literato, 9/2 Creachadoir, Darjina, 10/1 Admire Aura, Vodka, 12/1 Finsceal Beo, 14/1 Floral Pegasus, Linngari, 16/1 Archipenko, Bullish Luck, 20/1 Majestic Roi, 25/1 Niconero, 33/1 Lord Admiral, Notional, Seachange, 50/1 Jay Peg. SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A tremendous race in prospect and, as has been the main theme at this Carnival, Saeed Bin Suroor has a strong hand with Literato and CREACHADOIR. Frankie Dettori rides the former but, as he does seem a better horse with give in the ground, preference is for his stablemate, who is well suited by a sound surface. He turned in a career-best effort on only his third run for the yard when nailed by the much improved Good Ba Ba in the Hong Kong Mile, in which he had Darjina (worth a try over this trip) and Floral Pegasus (solid each-way shot) just behind and, as a half-brother to Arc runner-up Youmzain, he should be equally effective over this trip. Japan took this last year with Admire Moon and Admire Aura and Vodka are other each-way options to consider CREACHADOIR each way at 5/1 with McEvoy on board may give a good account in this highly competitive race 530 BETTING FORECAST: 4/11 Curlin, 7/1 Jalil, 12/1 Asiatic Boy, 14/1 Happy Boy, Vermilion, 20/1 Premium Tap, 25/1 A P Arrow, 33/1 Kocab, 40/1 Gloria De Campeao, 50/1 Lucky Find, Well Armed, 66/1 Great Hunter, 100/1 Sway Yed. Wide draw a concern for Curlin? Hmmm could this open up an each way candidate. A talking horse has been Jalil, with some good articles on the horse in the Racing post this week. Soft ground at Newbury 355 BETTING FORECAST: Evs Crescent Island, 4/1 Quizzene, 5/1 First Point, Psychiatrist, 20/1 Red Admiral, 25/1 Mistress To No One, 50/1 Mix N Match, 100/1 Glowing Dawn, 200/1 Seahorse Point , SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The three form principals have a point to prove after failing to build on a promising first try over hurdles so not a race that can be approached with much confidence. Course winner CRESCENT ISLAND's ability to handle the ground will stand him in good stead 4 horse race - each way angle? Psychiatrist each way may give us a run if soft ground affects the fav's performance 350 STRATFORD A very tight market indeed here, 7 horses between 6 and 8 ! I'll ignore the favs and take a lucky dip on Double Ells each way. 3 into 1 420 Stratofrd Tacinja 720 Wolves Brave hawk FOOTY A huge number of very important games this afternoon. AND remember the questions - any important games up coming which may affect performance today - hmmm - how about the Champions LEague mid week for Man Utd and Arsenal in particular. If you are taken by the influence mid week Champions League games may have on today's performances then speculative lays of short priced favs or backing Bolton and Aston Villa at big odds MIGHT pay off old Firm derby at 1230 kicks off the day RAngers have scored 2 or more in their last 6 matches while Celtic have struggled to keep clean sheets and I get the feeling the momentum is with the Rangers side. home advantage could be crucial? I was going to look at the bookings market BUT it's heavy odds on - doh! Correct score 0-0 (break even), 0-1, 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0 looks worth chancing I feel. I can't see Rangers not scoring and don't think Celtic can get 2 goals. A bit speculative but a repeat of 3-0 will be a cracker Laying the draw at 3.5 may be a good way in with trading in mind. This is a must win for both sides. Hamburg at 2.1 half time/full time - a good enhanced odds bet? I'll lay MAn City away to Brum today as i think Birmingham are strong at home and have more to play for than City whose season has petered out a bit Bolton against top 4 sides have lost by 2 clear goals recently - is this an angle in? Arsenal - 4 draws and a loss is simply NOT good enough for a team who were supposed to be challenging for the Premiership. Which Arsenal will turn up? - the Champions LEague team or the stuttering permiership side? Arsenal have the upper hand in head to heads. Is it time for Adebayour to return to goal scoring form - 2.9 is a decent enough price. Arse/Arse ; Draw/Arse and Draw/Bolton look appealing as a dutch for the half time/full time results, break even on Arsenal/Arsenal Under 2.5 goals Derby v Fulham? Worth trading if the match is in running - distinct improvement from Derby and a Fulham team who are not that free scoring I'll lay West Ham away to Sunderland here today - the Hammers have nothing to play for while Sunderland simply must keep their excellent home record. West brom over 2.5 goals 1/3 at home - the top scorers in the Championship should add to the tally today Gretna sacked 8 players mid week and St Mirren are not normally betting propositions - 1.87 half time/full time St Mirren? St Mirren are hardly free scoring so, despite Getna's turmoil there is an element of speculation about the halftime/full time but the odds are decent enough Over 2.5 goals in the Man Utd game may enhance the odds. Again it's tradeable and bumps up the 2/7 about United CONCLUSION - far far too many bets today so i will draw up a shortlist of the ones I feel have the potential to return more confidently

29/3

Nice win for Mary Josephine at Dundalk, Prince Erik for the Weld/Smullen combo (watch out for them on fancied horses this flat season in Ireland), Indian Skipper, Music Box Express. They all popped in at decent prices. Not now lewis unplaced, and Tvara did nothing in a 0-45 classified stakes - poor horses where market moves are perhaps not to be taken on trust.

3 into 1 - a 2nd and a win - ok.

Le Havre did the business at a nice 11/10 away from home 3-1 capping off an excellent day. THis is a tactic you can use - look at teams playing each other and check out how they have performed, say, against the same opponents in previous matches. It may give a clue as to what is expected and is a kind of form analysis for football.

Bookie benefit today as usual on a Saturday

BANGOR
230
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Delightfully, 5/2 Just Beware, 6/1 Rosie´s Glory, 14/1 Queenlaya, 33/1 Miss Champagne, Wensleydale Web, 50/1 Florida Diamond .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: If ex-French DELIGHTFULLY can't make short work of these modest rivals she's not going to have much of a future as a hurdler.[DH] it's always interesting when it seems that a horse must win really to continue in the hurdling game and if you are taken by Spotlight, then that's the case for Delightfully. BUT this is a claiming hurdle- I will be speculative as usual and a straight £10 level stakes on the front 2 produces a nice payout on Just Beware and a £2 loss on Delightfully. CAUTION - as a claiming hurdle we may have a surprise but I feel this is worth a punt. 1.76 on Delightfully - £14, and £10 on Just beware at current 3.5 will produce a break even and not a loss on Delightfully There are a couple of perceived 2 horse races in the 300 and 545 and if you're convinced that ,yes, this should involve the front 2, then play around as I did in the above example and select one to chose with perhaps a break even /slight loss on the other. With 3 the place in the 300 race, we will get unnaturally inflated odds for the other horses -perhaps place only dutching on Island Key and Never Ask at 3.25 and 3.65 -break even if one places - if something happens and both place, it's a nice pay out DONCASTER 235 BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Brave Prospector, 11/1 Game Hunt, Moothir, 12/1 Carpe Diem, Louis Seffens, Savannah Poppy, 14/1 Harrison George, 20/1 Centenerola, 33/1 Bilboa, Spirit Of A Nation, 100/1 Grey Command, Your Golf Travel . SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BRAVE PROSPECTOR has to win this if he's to justify entries in the English and Irish 2,000 Guineas and his soft-ground Group 3 fourth last year sets a good standard for the newcomers to aim at Significant price gapper - top RPR - top topspeed - postdata selection - 12 from 14 tips - looks solid - takes a drop in class NEGATIVES - 154 day absence - untried at the course - Another horse who MUST win (like Delightfully earlier) . A poor price but worthy of support, particularly to follow in running and lay off in increments. High class racing at Kempton and it is the Class 1 listed race I'll focus on 345 BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Kandidate, 11/4 Diamond Tycoon, 4/1 Great Hawk, 6/1 Spice Route, 8/1 Grand Passion, 10/1 Illustrious Blue, 16/1 Pur Sucre, 50/1 Impeller . SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Last spring Diamond Tycoon looked one of the most fascinating horses in training and it will be interesting to see if he can pick up the threads after his absence, but his stamina for today's trip has to be taken on trust and preference is for the rock-solid credentials of KANDIDATE As usual, the betting forecast for higher quality events should be more accurate . We have an each way angle with the straight 8 and Diamond Tycoon at 2/1 in the early price market. Of more interest is the "rock solid credentails" of Kandidate - 7/2 is an enticing price and an each way prospect for me. As ever, none of the horses can be readily dismissed given the quality of the race. Kandidate Battle-hardened veteran who has won both his starts here and suggested he was as good as ever when runner-up in Group 3 in Dubai on return last month; down to Listed level for first time since 2006 and likely to prove tough nut to crack for in-form yard. 415 BETTING FORECAST: 100/30 Gone Hunting, 7/2 Sub Prime, 4/1 Asaint Needs Brass, 8/1 Imperial Skylight, 10/1 Grand Honour, Old Father Zieten, 14/1 Comanche Trail, Dr Wintringham, 16/1 Buckle Up, 20/1 Multi Tasker . SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The betting should provide a few clues to the ability of these ten newcomers. Bill Turner proved once again his talent for readying cheaply bought newcomers when Sally's Dilemma won the Brocklesby and he rates GONE HUNTING her equal. The low draw is not ideal but she is likely to know her job better than most and is preferred to Sub Prime.[FC] Multi tasker currently 10/1 in a debutant maiden whose betting market will tell all. Again, this 10/1 has to be replicated at the off. If the price drifts then it's a no bet. One non runner at a potential 10/1 should not be the cause of this price cut for Multi tasker NAD AL SHEEBA A cracking card with Curlin the stand out here 140 BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Blackat Blackitten, 11/4 Diamond Stripes, Elusive Warning, 12/1 Baharah, Golden Arrow, 20/1 Barcola, 33/1 Aleutian, Green Coast, Rosberg, Zakocity, 40/1 Halkin, 50/1 Brave Tin Soldier, 66/1 Jet Express, Watch What Happens, 100/1 Don Renato . SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Saeed Bin Suroor has won this six times since 1996 and he has a strong hand with progressive ELUSIVE WARNING and Blackat Blackitten. The pair finished first and second in the Burj Nahaar over C&D last time and it's the strong-travelling Elusive Warning, who had his first run over this trip that day and is the most unexposed runner in the field, that is fancied to confirm placings. The other danger in a race lacking strength in depth is Diamond Stripes, who drops in trip but looks sure to go well on his UAE debut if handling this surface 3 horse race in prospect? Again I can level stakes dutch the front 3 and reduce the stake on Diamond stripes to leave a break even on that one with profit on the Godolphin pair Blackcat and Elusive 355 BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Literato, 9/2 Creachadoir, Darjina, 10/1 Admire Aura, Vodka, 12/1 Finsceal Beo, 14/1 Floral Pegasus, Linngari, 16/1 Archipenko, Bullish Luck, 20/1 Majestic Roi, 25/1 Niconero, 33/1 Lord Admiral, Notional, Seachange, 50/1 Jay Peg. SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A tremendous race in prospect and, as has been the main theme at this Carnival, Saeed Bin Suroor has a strong hand with Literato and CREACHADOIR. Frankie Dettori rides the former but, as he does seem a better horse with give in the ground, preference is for his stablemate, who is well suited by a sound surface. He turned in a career-best effort on only his third run for the yard when nailed by the much improved Good Ba Ba in the Hong Kong Mile, in which he had Darjina (worth a try over this trip) and Floral Pegasus (solid each-way shot) just behind and, as a half-brother to Arc runner-up Youmzain, he should be equally effective over this trip. Japan took this last year with Admire Moon and Admire Aura and Vodka are other each-way options to consider CREACHADOIR each way at 5/1 with McEvoy on board may give a good account in this highly competitive race 530 BETTING FORECAST: 4/11 Curlin, 7/1 Jalil, 12/1 Asiatic Boy, 14/1 Happy Boy, Vermilion, 20/1 Premium Tap, 25/1 A P Arrow, 33/1 Kocab, 40/1 Gloria De Campeao, 50/1 Lucky Find, Well Armed, 66/1 Great Hunter, 100/1 Sway Yed. Wide draw a concern for Curlin? Hmmm could this open up an each way candidate. A talking horse has been Jalil, with some good articles on the horse in the Racing post this week. Soft ground at Newbury 355 BETTING FORECAST: Evs Crescent Island, 4/1 Quizzene, 5/1 First Point, Psychiatrist, 20/1 Red Admiral, 25/1 Mistress To No One, 50/1 Mix N Match, 100/1 Glowing Dawn, 200/1 Seahorse Point , SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The three form principals have a point to prove after failing to build on a promising first try over hurdles so not a race that can be approached with much confidence. Course winner CRESCENT ISLAND's ability to handle the ground will stand him in good stead 4 horse race - each way angle? Psychiatrist each way may give us a run if soft ground affects the fav's performance 350 STRATFORD A very tight market indeed here, 7 horses between 6 and 8 ! I'll ignore the favs and take a lucky dip on Double Ells each way. 3 into 1 420 Stratofrd Tacinja 720 Wolves Brave hawk FOOTY A huge number of very important games this afternoon. AND remember the questions - any important games up coming which may affect performance today - hmmm - how about the Champions LEague mid week for Man Utd and Arsenal in particular. If you are taken by the influence mid week Champions League games may have on today's performances then speculative lays of short priced favs or backing Bolton and Aston Villa at big odds MIGHT pay off old Firm derby at 1230 kicks off the day RAngers have scored 2 or more in their last 6 matches while Celtic have struggled to keep clean sheets and I get the feeling the momentum is with the Rangers side. home advantage could be crucial? I was going to look at the bookings market BUT it's heavy odds on - doh! Correct score 0-0 (break even), 0-1, 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0 looks worth chancing I feel. I can't see Rangers not scoring and don't think Celtic can get 2 goals. A bit speculative but a repeat of 3-0 will be a cracker Laying the draw at 3.5 may be a good way in with trading in mind. This is a must win for both sides. Hamburg at 2.1 half time/full time - a good enhanced odds bet? I'll lay MAn City away to Brum today as i think Birmingham are strong at home and have more to play for than City whose season has petered out a bit Bolton against top 4 sides have lost by 2 clear goals recently - is this an angle in? Arsenal - 4 draws and a loss is simply NOT good enough for a team who were supposed to be challenging for the Premiership. Which Arsenal will turn up? - the Champions LEague team or the stuttering permiership side? Arsenal have the upper hand in head to heads. Is it time for Adebayour to return to goal scoring form - 2.9 is a decent enough price. Arse/Arse ; Draw/Arse and Draw/Bolton look appealing as a dutch for the half time/full time results, break even on Arsenal/Arsenal Under 2.5 goals Derby v Fulham? Worth trading if the match is in running - distinct improvement from Derby and a Fulham team who are not that free scoring I'll lay West Ham away to Sunderland here today - the Hammers have nothing to play for while Sunderland simply must keep their excellent home record. West brom over 2.5 goals 1/3 at home - the top scorers in the Championship should add to the tally today Gretna sacked 8 players mid week and St Mirren are not normally betting propositions - 1.87 half time/full time St Mirren? St Mirren are hardly free scoring so, despite Getna's turmoil there is an element of speculation about the halftime/full time but the odds are decent enough Over 2.5 goals in the Man Utd game may enhance the odds. Again it's tradeable and bumps up the 2/7 about United CONCLUSION - far far too many bets today so i will draw up a shortlist of the ones I feel have the potential to return more confidently

28/3

Well we saw the value of the neutral bet yesterday in the footy - 2-2 - went like a dream - Droylsden scored 1st and Aldershot did as I hoped and responded only for Droylseden to score again - over 2.5 goals NO SWEAT - far better than 1.43 about Aldershot in the match odds - lower league games can be so unpredictable - this was bottom against top!

I was so near to getting Companero beaten by Spitfire Sortie - down to 1.25 in running! - would have been a nice payout!
Any each way speculators would have been rewarded by keepthedreamalive in a race which should have involved the front 2 - a 7 runner race means we were taking a little bit of a risk with only 2 the place but the horse consented to win!

This horse game defies logic sometimes - there am I thinking the handicap topweight system is potentially a good lay system when the 2 big prices yesterday came 2nd each at good each way odds, this follows to 5/1 + winners for the top weights (5lbs or more) - still they lost albeit at not really layable odds

No real chance with another 3 into 1 hunter chase selection who ,guess what ,lost again! These hunter chases really do provide good lay opportunities and gathering more evidence, such as the time off track for this one and we have a far more likely lay than back at the prices.

3 into 1 is mechanical and perhaps a look through all selections and the race types may provide a pattern for me for this still profitable system (not level stakes though)

As already mentioned, odds on selections are running at aa double figure odds level stakes loss for this system and I do keep track of results for evens to 3/1 ( some 13 points profit to level stakes) and all prices separately
DUNDALK
720
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Zars Gold, 7/2 Mary Josephine, 4/1 Ashka, 5/1 Leo´s Pride, 8/1 Golden Tokyo, 10/1 Dawn Eclipse, 12/1 Evita Evita, Read The Script, Salamis, 14/1 He´s Cool, 20/1 Blue Turk, Torina, 25/1 Insomnitas, Tiger Abby,

Fav has a high draw on Ireland's all weather over 7 furlongs - enough for me to take it on? Mary Josephine has been placed on all outings and, if at an each way price (4/1 or higher) can be backed to worry Zars Gold whose draw I hope will be the hindrance

910
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Kempes, 2/1 Prince Erik, 10/1 Akadyr, 12/1 Charlies First, Cloone River, 16/1 Nora Chrissie, 20/1 Alfredian Park, Amarjit, Charlemagne, 25/1 Bankalan, 33/1 Gulladoo Gold, 50/1 Ektishaaf.

THese markets are unformed on BEtfair but I will agree with the synopsis that this should be between Kempes and Prince Erik. The latter has the solid Weld/Smullen partnership and the greater odds at time of writing and ,if the prices,once formed on BEtfair, allow, I will load profit on Prince Erik and break even/slight loss on Kempes - Big price gap to the 3rd horse

KEMPTON

720
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Apache Dawn, 7/2 Dushstorm, 4/1 Not Now Lewis, 8/1 Victor Trumper, 12/1 Bed Fellow, Cactus King, Film Queen, 14/1 Shouldntbethere, 16/1 Barry Island .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: An ordinary claimer that could see NOT NOW LEWIS make a mockery of the official figures in current progressive form over a C&D that brings the best out of him.[BDO]

A 3 horse race? - Victor Trumper the spoiler? Even though not each way price (ideal each way price) Not now lewis looks a big positive from Spotlight and is worth support -perhaps a break even? - £10 on the place for example at 1.55 returns £5.50 (commission not withstanding) - put that £5.50 on the win at 4.6 and hope the horse places at least

920
ETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Straight Face, 11/4 Prince Valentine, 100/30 Suhayl Star, 12/1 Tvara, 14/1 Only If I Laugh, 20/1 A Teen, Cyfrwys, Doctor Ned, Northstar Express, Raise Again, 25/1 Mtoto Girl, 33/1 Jabraan, 50/1 Canary Girl, 100/1 Pajada.

It looked like a 3 horse race but why is Tvara 5.4 on BEtfair and 4/1 in the morning prices - yes we have the whole day to wait, but worth each way support if remaining around 4/1 -a significant market move in a lowly classified stakes race?

LINGFIELD
200

BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Gulch´s Rose, 3/1 Nightjar, 4/1 Blur, 5/1 Riqaab, 10/1 Indian Skipper, 20/1 Thankuforthemusic, 25/1 Buck Cannon, 33/1 Arniecoco, 66/1 Wicksy Creek, 100/1 Malt Empress, Too Much To Do.

Early season maiden with a number of newcomers - looks a 3 horse race but Indian star sneaks in with a slight price drop to 6.8 on betfair - worthy of each way support albeit none too confident given the race type

WOLVES
220
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Avontuur, Compton Classic, 5/1 Green Pirate, Music Box Express, 6/1 Wicked Uncle, 8/1 Hamaasy, 10/1 Marko Jadeo, 12/1 Mr Rev .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Green Pirate should be staying on here if they go a decent pace and he looks the type his new stable will do well with. Avontuur is another possible, but COMPTON CLASSIC looks to have a fair bit in his favour this time and can return to winning ways

Incredibly tight price market with Betfair prices 6,6,7.2, 5.4, 7.6, 8.2, 17, 19
immediately we can dutch 5 at least if including the 5.4 horse but I will speculate given the bookies seemingly can't split them and go with Music Box express at 8.2 on betfair - again each way

3 into 1

230 Lingfield	Danetime lord
325 Wolves	Dhhamaan

HANDICAP TOP WEIGHTS

240 Newbury	My immortal	5lbs	20 in win market
425 Newbury	Kings revenge	5lbs	6.4 win 2.4 place

FOOTY
Le HAvre away to Amiens and there is a form line through Boulogne -sur -mer - Le HAvre were 1/3 on to beat them and they did 2-0. Boulogne sur mer beat Amiens 2-1

11/10 is good enough for Le Havre tonight away from home 5 from 6 wins latest - only defeat to fellow table toppers Troyes - more importantly away form looks solid.