Hit and miss yesterday - the big dutches worked as market leaders dominated in these races. Broadband problems today leave me a little rushed
HUNTINGDON
140
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Herald Angel, 7/2 Lady Pilot, 6/1 Mondial Jack, 7/1 Aqua Pura, 12/1 Tarkesar, 20/1 Sunbolt, The Grandchild, 50/1 Booster Divin, 66/1 Purr .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Several of these would be interesting in a run-of-the-mill handicap but HERALD ANGEL approaches the race in particularly good form and looks the one to beat. Lady Pilot, Mondial Jack and Aqua Pura are others expected to go we |
LAy Pilot and Aqua Pura each way against the fav couls be a fair option given the length of the race
SOUTHWELL
425
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 They All Laughed, 7/4 Red Wine, 9/2 Exit To Luck, 10/1 Victory Quest, 20/1 Active Asset .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Red Wine's last Flat form worked out well and this trip should suit but he's not won for many a year and is not one for skinny odds. This could go to THEY ALL LAUGHED, who conversely does know how to win and who has been at the top of his game of late |
A meeting with a lot of short pried market principals in small fields not allowing for any real each way opposition
WOLVES
Another meeting of familiar horses reopposing and a difficult card because of that
920
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 High Five Society, 13/2 Keon, 8/1 Castle Frome, 10/1 The Power Of Phil, 12/1 Bonnet O´Bonnie, 16/1 Lily La Belle, 20/1 Royal Lustre, 25/1 Ingleby Hill, 33/1 Almowj, Crimson Flame, Lizarazu, 50/1 Flaming Cat, Shami .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: HIGH FIVE SOCIETY brings the best recent form to the table and though he will start at short odds looks by far the likeliest winner after his recent runaway win here. |
Potential price gapper here in high five society
POSITIVES - price gap is demonstrable - 10\11 tips - 7 days since last run = fresh - course and distance winner - top RPR - postdata selection - familiar jockey on board who has got a 2nd and 1st place from the horse - 50% strike rate for trainer in last 2 weeks although 4 year old strike rate not impressive
NEGATIVES - class 7 classified race - we can't really get a lower class than this apart from banded stakes and donkey derbies - this means that the horses are generally not to be trusted to uphold their form -
I do like Spotlight's comment though
High Five Society Good second to rejuvenated one landing hat-trick in similar event over slightly further on recent reappearance before running away with similar event from similarly poor draw over this C&D latest; repeat of that form will make him very difficult to beat.
" very difficult to beat" - the kind of definitive positive comment i want to see.
One to back for me to monitor in running
3 into 1
One winner yesterday
| 225 Southwell | Yakimov | |
| 425 Southwell | They all laughed | |
FOOTY
I will probably focus my bets today on the football given the raft of difficult races we face today in Cheltenhams absence
The lay of Liverpool at 1.28 didn't come off - well done the Reds and really I wasnt concerned given the price It was still a good option as one Inter goal would have allowed for a profit.
under 2.5 goals green screen was achieved with the minimum of fuss.
Carlisle won both halves against Luton for a nice return on the half time\full time market
Plenty of opportunities tonight
In the Premiership we have 3 matches and the one that springs to mind is Chelsea v Derby as the most predictable.
Chelsea don't lose at home ! That's a way in but 1\9 odds need to be enhanced elsewhere.
Chelsea clean sheet at 1.52 currently is enticing and enhances the 1.13 odds about them in the match odds market
Usually with 1/9 shots my attention would immediately be on the over 3.5 goals market at 2.52 as a tradeable option only, but recent head to heads point at this being no rout
Chelsea's recent haul against West Ham probably tells us more about West Ham than Chelse's goal scoring prowess.
If we look at Derby against equivalent opposition away from home, Man Utd won 4-1 and Arse won 5-0.
Preference for me would be the 1.6 over 2.5 goals to trade
1.45 Chelsea/Chelsea enhances the 1.13 considerably and I'll dispense with the draw/Chelsea cover
Bayern have already done a job on Anderlecht and how will they approach this evening's home leg. 1/5 suggests they will add to Anderlecht's woes but Anderlecht did have 10 men for a large part of the game.
Again a chance can be taken on Bayern/Bayern half time/full time again without the saver on the Draw/bayern at 1.86
Celtic must win tonight at home to keep the pressure on Rangers in the Scottish Premier, and again and again half time /full time is the way to go for me ,on Celtic/Celtic and Draw/Celtic with break even - slight loss on the latter
Villa have scored 3 against boro twice in their last 2 away at Boro and more can hopefully be expected this evening from the attacking Villains
1.65 match odds to back and trade after Villa hopefully score first is my option here
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