Light Yield won the first for the dutch for a nice profit - break even if the fav won.
Nice to get a victory having taken on Downs Folly and Scotland Yard provided it
Soft/Heavy in places did for the 3 into 1 selections and we see the importance of ground . It turns backs into lays as was seen at Ayr at the end of last week with these selections. A blanket ban on heavy ground selections is perhaps the common sense thing to do
Well done to Nantes in a game which was surprisingly in running for a ligue 2 clash. I got out after the first goal was scored, sacrificing nearly half my profit on Nantes to ensure a green screen.
1-0 is too precarious a scoreline to consider leaving any bets in
Again, with Nantes, we see the importance of focussing on what you know. This season in Ligue 2 I have focussed on Nates and Le Havre only. In the Scottish Premiership, I have focussed on Rangers and Celtic only.
In the Premiership, I focus on those teams who show general characteristics to their play ( eg Wigan and Brum tight defensively - Man Utd -goals expected) etc.
Itmay be good for next season to draw up a list of leagues and teams you'd like to follow - perhaps evolve this list as the seasons progress to include those flying high and those fighting relegation. It is this focus which enables me to get it right most of the time. Some football tipsters deliberately seek out bigger prices in obscure games and really don't perform.
CHELTENHAM
Yes I'm going to enjoy the Festival but will treat it as any other race card betting wise. You will see a lot of people looking to bet on every single race because it is Cheltenham. I will be employing laying in running tactics in today's festival as well as trying to back the winner in running too - a bit of flexibility given real time terrestrial coverage.
200
Epitomises the kind of race to simply avoid.23 runners - check out the number of 1's in the form columns - 8/1 the field
How will I approach this race? Well, I will be looking to lay the first named on Betfair to nick a fiver green screen as its price should rise in running.
This type of race will be good for 16/1 system users to enable us to look out for potential stable gambles or horses whose prices have been shortened surrepticiously by the bookies.
For those itching to have a punt, it's 9.00 the field on Betfair so we can chose 9 horses to back and still make a profit if one wins. Backing Khyber Kim, Muirhead, Rippling Ring, Binocular, Pigeon Island, Cork all star, Captain Cee Bee, Sentry Duty , Pasco leaves break even on Khyber Kim as the horse is at 9.00 and an ecscalating profit on the others. Why these horses? I'm simply going from the top of the Betfair screen downwards
With prices for the place only market at 3.7 the lowest and generally 4.00 upwards, again with the 4.00 horses as the lowest of your selections, you can select 3 and still profit if one comes in BUT only 3 to place. Win Win if all 3 you've chosen are placed - (if they do -congrats!)
BOTTOM LINE - 23 runners -highly competitive - no bet for me - monitor in running for me to lay and back . Might play the in running place only market.
235
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Noland, 15/2 Tidal Bay, 8/1 Clopf, Ring The Boss, 9/1 Thyne Again, 10/1 Mahogany Blaze, 12/1 Leslingtaylor, 14/1 Kruguyrova, 16/1 Moon Over Miami, 20/1 Scotsirish, 25/1 French Accordion, 33/1 Marodima, 250/1 Orpen Wide, 500/1 Premiership .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: All have their drawbacks. Tidal Bay and NOLAND are the established class acts and the 2006 Supreme Novices' winner seems to bring fewer negatives even if the trip is shorter than ideal. Ring The Boss looks the one most capable of improvement among the rest and further rain will help his cause.[RA] |
The Arkle Chase - GRade 1 - class 1 - says it all about the quality of the field. Using my usual techniques, do we have a potential price gapper in Noland
2/1 - - - 15/2 is a good gap especially given the quality of the race. Ruby on board - has won last 5 races -course and distance winner - fresh -18 days since last race - price gap remains in early market (9am) ;
NEGATIVES - Highly competitive field with plenty of 1's in the form column - NOT top RPR - NOT top topspeed - Spotlight concern over sharpness of trip which may leave the horse vulnerable - predicted rain may not be a positive. -
MY PLAY - Again too competitive for me. I will,again, lay Noland at 3.2 to back at a higher price in running hopefully or get out at a predetermined loss of £10 all round,
If I were to play, this looks an ideal each way race if we can safely dismiss the outsiders in Scots Irish, French Accordian, Marodima, Orpen Wide and Permiership.
This leaves 9 horses and 3 to place. I would back Mahogany Blaze and Lesling Taylor each way - just outside the main protagonists yet not nestled in outsiders territory
315
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Sizing Europe, 5/1 Osana, 11/2 Sublimity, 7/1 Harchibald, 10/1 Catch Me, Katchit, 25/1 Afsoun, Ebaziyan, Punjabi, Straw Bear, 50/1 Blythe Knight, Bobs Pride, Farmer Brown, 66/1 Kalderon, 100/1 Salford City, 200/1 Kawagino, 500/1 Contraband .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Surprisingly few make much appeal as prospective winners. Sizing Europe's much-improved performance when winning so well at Leopardstown last time gives him strong prospects on form and, still only a 6yo and comparatively lightly raced, he well may have further progress in him. However, there is a concern with his hurdling amidst the cut-and-thrust of a fast-paced Champion Hurdle so preference is for HARCHIBALD, who was right back to his best when an easy winner of Newcastle's Fighting Fifth at Newcastle in December, had an excuse next time at Kempton and looked in rude health again when landing a 13th career win (Flat and hurdles combined) in a useful minor event on the AW at Dundalk 11 days ago. Provided Paul Carberry is prepared to push the button sooner than when just beaten in a controversial finish to this in 2005, Harchibald has the class to win a lesser-contested race this time. Sizing Europe is still the biggest danger, with Afsoun appealing most of the rest. [MCu] |
One of the "talking horses" this one, Sizing Europe has been making the headlines in recent days and does hold an outstanding chance. For those taken by the hype, 3.65 on BEtfair is reasonable odds to monitor to lay off if the price shortens in running.
Again one to lay for me, to back at a higher price in running in another competitive race where a couple hold a decent enough chance to be considered rivals.
Each wayers can see an angle in - the price band I would look for on BEtfair would be 6.4 to 13 and I would select 2 each way, Harchibald at 9 and Catch me at 13.
400
BETTING FORECAST: 5/1 An Accordion, 7/1 Patsy Hall, 9/1 Monkerhostin, Ofarel D´Airy, 10/1 Abragante, L´Ami, 12/1 Fundamentalist, King Harald, New Alco, 14/1 Mon Mome, 20/1 Bob Hall, Flying Enterprise, Ponmeoath, 33/1 Lankawi, Ollie Magern .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: An Accordion is the one most obviously open to improvement but jumping smoothly round this track should prove more difficult for him and he has gone up 11lb for his Doncaster win in first-time blinkers. David Pipe has another very interesting runner in Abragante and a back-to-form King Harald looks solid each-way but a big fall in the weights makes this a good opportunity for L'AMI, who is well treated on his form here in November and extremely well in on what he was capable of in the previous two seasons.[RA] |
5/1 the field tells you how competitive this is. A no play race for me at all -look how many are priced between 5/1 and 14/1 - a very constricted field and a bookies pay day.
If you wanted a fun involvement, again 7.8 the field allows us to back 7 horses and still profit.. You could leave the 7.8 priced horse out(An accordian) and chose the 8.4 (Patsy Hall), allowing you to back 8 horses to level stakes and still profit if one wins!
440
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Wonderkid, 9/2 Garde Champetre, 11/2 Heads Onthe Ground, 12/1 Le Duc, 14/1 Royal Auclair, 16/1 Florida Dream, Freneys Well, Ivoire De Beaulieu, 20/1 Casadei, Kilbeggan Blade, Never Compromise, 25/1 A New Story, 33/1 Bosham Mill, Native Jack, 40/1 Harrycone Lewis, 66/1 Mange Tout .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Enda Bolger has won eight of the 11 cross-country races staged on this course and is typically strong-handed. Garde Champetre is attractive at the weights but may well lack the stamina of Heads Onthe Ground, who looks sure to run his race again. However, the latter, in company with Royal Auclair, Ivoire De Beaulieu, Florida Dream, Le Duc and Freneys Well was easily outpaced by WONDERKID here in December and Tony Martin's gelding may well be up to defying an 11lb rise.[FC] |
A real specialist's race -cross country over 3 miles 7 - this would be a happy hunting ground for Spot the difference .A great race to lay the fav and back the fav at a higher price in running.
Each way ,perhaps HEadsontheground - ultra consistent
520
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Ashkazar, 7/2 River Liane, 11/1 Prince Erik, 12/1 Chapoturgeon, Crack Away Jack, Grand Schlem, 14/1 Harry Tricker, 20/1 Mamlook, Metaphoric, 25/1 Siege Of Ennis, 33/1 Squadron, Thousand Stars, 40/1 Callisto Moon, Chord, Zanir, 50/1 Hypnotic Vibes, Indian Spring, Sainte Kadette, 66/1 Bayonyx, Dal Cais, Mr Crystal, Silmi, Sivota, Western Point .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Two horses well in front of the handicapper dominate the betting and may very well dominate the finish too. Preference for ASHKAZAR (nap) over River Liane is based around the fact that the Pipe horse has already proved he can do it in a big-field handicap and clearly in some style too, after Saturday's easy win off this mark in the Imperial Cup. The form of River Liane's easy Leopardstown win was boosted on Sunday and he has to be regarded as the clear pick of the opposition, with Grand Schlem best of the rest. [MCu] |
Hooray - a 24 runner juvenile novices handicap hurdle - just the type of race we can retire on ----------NOT!
A quick look at the betting forecast (which is generally accurate at these big festivals) shows 2 clear market leaders in Ashkazar (winner 3 days ago at Sandown) and River Liane (another "talking horse" much heralded for his win and the manner of that win 9 days ago)
A simple level stakes dutch of the front 2 is the easiest angle in without going mental pouring over the form .
Each way alternatives are certainly there in a race of this type, and Chapturgeon may fit the bill.
I will dutch the first 2 here given the confidence and column inches these 2 have generated recently.
CHELTENHAM CONCLUSION
Highly competitive as you would expect - any rain may deteriorate ground as the card progresses - has Cheltenham been affected by the recent storm? We'll soon find out.
Personally I will take a cautious approach and with terrestrial coverage seek to make my target profit through in running betting rather than taking any opinion on one horse. That said, races like the last afford us an opportunity for level stakes dutching, as do some of the other bigger priced market leader races where we can back as many as 8 ,and if lucky enough to pick the winner, still profit. I treat the latter though more as fun bets to get an involvement in the race rather than as a serious profit maker.
SEDGEFIELD
Good to firm
215
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Drumnavaddy Lough, Reasonably Sure, 4/1 Prince Of Leisure, 5/1 La Reserve, 10/1 Napalm, 14/1 Jupsala, 20/1 Hurricane Basil, 33/1 Erte, Playboy Prince, 100/1 Toot Tootsie .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Drumnavaddy Lough and Reasonably Sure set the standard but neither is one to trust in a finish and a chance is taken on LA RESERVE, who seemed to run a little below expectations on his debut for these connections and kicks off over fences at a very low level Maiden chase - an each way angle in here? La Reserve is nestled just before the double figure prices and may be a good each way runner. SOUTHWELL 505 BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Minus Fifteen, 100/30 Jal Music, 11/2 Young Gladiator, 6/1 Swindon Town Flyer, 8/1 Fujin Dancer, 12/1 Fools Gold, 33/1 Moonage Daydream, One Way Love .
Jal Music at 4/1 currently looks a decent enough each way alternative to the hot pot in this maiden 3 into 1 still affected by ground conditions which none of the systems warn about ( and they should!) 300 SOUTHWELL - COPPERBOTTOMED 540 SOUTHWELL - MAGICAL SONG FOOTY Predominantly Championship footy this evening and amazingly nearly all matches have been priced up similarly - 5/4 - 11/5 - 7/4 - are the odds compilers too busy watching Cheltenham? Standout game this evening is Liverpool away to Inter Milan. i will lay Liverpool at 1.28 to qualify -an in running market - any Inter goal to no reply will really increase the price for a tradeable profit - liability is very low affording us a good potential trade. Any Liverpool goal however should spell curtains for Inter. Inter must mirror Liverpool's anfield scoreline so the expectation here is for an all out attack. This should be defence against attacvk and the hope of a counter attacking away goal. 1.81 for under 2.5 goals in the early part of the match looks tradeable I think to get out after 20 minutes if it remains goalless. Barnsley at home again against Ipswich - time to lay them with the FA Cup hangover? Can we still oppose Luton in their current state - the 1/3 about Carlisle at home suggests so. Half time/full time Carlisle/Carlisle ; Draw/Carlisle ; Draw Draw may be the best angle in, with a ratio of £19 ; £8 ; £4 (or equivalent) repectively leaving break even on draw/draw |
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