I mistakenly thought the Le Havre game was in running. If it had been in running 0-0 at half time would have ensured a profitable under 2.5 goal trade and Le Havre scoring first in the 2nd half would have ensured a profitable match odds trade.
BUT......4-1 to Troyes final score - not in running - under 2.5 goals went awry!. Frustrating and a note that you must check that games are in running if you want to trade!
Silent master won the first at Lingfield.
Kyrie Eleison won the 2 horse race ,paying out more
The 310 saw Dodaa win at enhanced odds of around 6 which adequately compensated for losses.
Smokin Joe couldn't land a blow at 14/1 alas
I was right in my initial synopsis that we had missed the boat with Mickmacmagoole.
Again, as a trader, my view on the Le Havre game was right on the money - as a bettor, it went all Derby County!
EXETER
230
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Nevada Royale, 5/2 Spare Cash, 12/1 Master Wells, 20/1 Fairlight Shadow, Team Chaser, 33/1 Master John, 150/1 Mr Dass, 200/1 Skipperham Well, The Mystery Man .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Spare Cash has run consistently well and is the one most likely to profit if the exciting prospect NEVADA ROYALE, for whatever reason, fails to translate his considerable ability to hurdles.{PJ] |
Spare Cash the obvious alternative but 1.2 to place - you might as well back the fav to win!
An interesting alternative is to back MAster Wells and Team Chaser to level stakes to place (2.2 and 2.4 respectively) - break even if one places, nice returns if they both place (one of the 2 market leaders doesn't give their runnings)
As this is a juvenile hurdle, I can back the front 4 in a ratio of
Nevada Royale - 1.44 STAKE £25 LOSS £4
Spare Cash - 4.1 STAKE £10 PROFIT 95p
Master Wells - 26 STAKE £3 PROFIT £36.10
Team Chaser - 36 STAKE £2 PROFIT £30.40
PRices being a true reflection, this is effectively a free bet on the only 2 horses who can possibly exploit any mishaps amongst the front 2
Of course, to leave the £4 loss on Nevada Royale, you could lay the horse for £10 and profit if he loses
330
THe Gangerman is beaten fav last 4 starts but has placed in all of them. This is a marathon distance and the Gangerman has a D next to his name signifying he has run and won at the distance and at 5/1 represents good each way value with Paddy Brennan doing the steering
500
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 I´m A Legend, 5/1 Double The Trouble, 8/1 Idian Mix, 10/1 Gold Again, Monash Lad, 14/1 The Boat, The Venetian, 16/1 Tetragon, 20/1 Boulevin, Dunkerron, Taran Tregarth, The Sportsman, 25/1 Asaateel, Max Bygraves, 33/1 Lightening Fire, Lord Lieutenant, Rosevina, Swagger, 100/1 Redhot Fillypepper .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This won't take much winning despite the numbers and I'M A LEGEND (nap) should be tough to beat with or without cheekpieces, having dodged a penalty for last week's win. The Boat can also get in the shake up |
PRice gap enhanced in early market - now 7/4 - - - 6/1. "should be tough to beat" says Spotlight - dodges a penalty so "well in", 221 form very consistent, JOINT top RPR, Postdata selection, 8/14 tips.
NEGATIVES - amateur riders ( although jockey won on him last time out ); 19 runners.
Against my better judgement (as there is obvious evidence to lay!) I will back I'm a Legend, keeping the swear jar near at hand as I wonder how I ever backed a short price in a 19 runner handicap for amateur riders!
NEWCASTLE
250
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Noble Alan, 15/8 Kealshore Boy, 10/1 Professor Higgins, 14/1 La Pantera Rosa, 20/1 Faith And Fortune, 25/1 Sam Cruise, 33/1 Palos Conti, Prioryjo, Serve Notice, 50/1 Fine Parchment, 100/1 Moneylaws, Pumboo, Robin De La Folie, Top Official, Wee George, 200/1 Lady Sambury .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Kealshore Boy will be no pushover but NOBLE ALAN (nap) gets the vote in receipt of 6lb, as it was a good effort here last time behind respected opposition (promoted to second from third) and, as a brother to fast-ground chaser Full House, this livelier surface should benefit him.[AWJ] |
Level stakes on the front 2 ,at current prices, produces a £2.30 loss on Noble Alan and £10 win on Kealshore Boy to £10 level stakes -the latter " will be no pushover"
350
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Silver Sedge, 5/1 King Of Confusion, Oso Magic, 7/1 Super Baby, 9/1 Ross Comm, 16/1 Married .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Although unlikely to be much of a price, SILVER SEDGE, who came right back to form when second here last time, is the one to beat. Friday's Doncaster fourth, Oso Magic, looks best of the others |
Potential price gapper but King and Oso are showing at 4/1 and 9/2 early doors.
POSITIVES - top RPR, Postdata selection, 10/14 tips, "is the one to beat", jockey has ridden the horse plenty of times previously - course and distance winner - trainer 25% strike rate with chasers (2 from 8) - good 2nd last time out - analysis reads " Silver Sedge, who had conditions to suit and on a track that is ideal for him, came right back to form, and only just lost out in a driving finish. He’s droppedback to a fair mark and should be winning soon."
NEGATIVES - handicap chase - small field can often mean a bunching field with many in contention come the business end.
Looks just too obvious to me, but worthy of support to monitor in running at odds against
WOLVES
510
1.74 for Mr Chocolate Drop to place tells us it's no gimme but he could be competitive although he's another multiple winner in a handicap.
3 INTO 1
Non runner yesterday
350 NEWCASTLE - Silver Sedge
440 SOUTHWELL - Denbera Dancer
FOOTY
The value of trading came to the fore yesterday in a game that COULD NOT be traded
Focus on the Champions League this evening.
Over 2.5 goals at 1.81 is worthy of interest in a game where Celtic must score and Barcelona probably will score. Celtic scoring first will be the ideal scenario for overs,
The match odds market tell us this is a Barcelona win but I am mindful of Celtic's previous close shaves. I hope they don't play Samaras who looks great against the likes of Caley Thislte and Hibs but will be found out against this type of opposition.
Half time/Full time on
BArcelona /Barcelona - 1.85 £15 produces a £2.25 loss
Draw/Barcelona - 4.6 £10 produces a £16 profit
Draw/Draw -9.4 £5 produces a £5 profit
First goal odds dutching may pay off if we can expect tight early exchanges
11-20 ;21-30;31-40;51-60;61-70 minutes can all be backed as the shortest price is 5.4 - profits escalate with time.
0-0 scuppers the bet - an early goal scuppers the bet - goals either side of half time scupper the bet. It looks to have legs though.
Man Utd's home advantage is the key tonight as is the freshness of the personnel available. It must not be forgotten how close they were to taking a deficit to Old Trafford and the onus must be on keeping Lyon out (away goal rules) - Man Utd are in the ascendancy with the away goal and should consolidate.
Again half time full time Utd/Utd; Draw/utd, Draw/Draw is of interest, with break even on the draw/draw and profit loaded on the other 2 results
Again I won't desert my "to score" dutches on Rooney and Ronny at 2.44 and 2.38 respectively - break even if one scores, nice profit if they both score (of course you can substitute one player for any other as long as their price is over 2)
With the away goal so important , Man Utd clean sheet at 1.91 looks worthy of support
With no Racing Post this early I would like to get some angles from them.
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