14/4

Apologies for no entry yesterday, my family is still over from Guernsey and so I was entertaining them. Glancing at the results yesterday I am sure , with the good performance of the short priced odds against and odds on favourites that you could have easily singled out one yourself.
A pity for me yesterday but a 6 year old and 2 10 year old nephews and neices were a slight distraction!
I am off again today as they are still in Ireland, so am doing the blog earlier than usual. As you know by k now, the later the better as we can then account for market movers and non runners which open up excellent opportunities for probability bets

240 EXEter
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Gentle Ranger, 15/8 Vodka Brook, 5/1 Bushwacker, 14/1 Qualypso D´Allier, 20/1 Knight In The City, Thedeboftheyear, 33/1 Arctic Flow, Russian Orphan, 66/1 Tarabela, 100/1 Rock Captain.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Vodka Brook commands respect on the form of his Wincanton success but GENTLE RANGER (nap), who receives a handy 7lb, may be able to build on the promise of his second in a beginners' chase at Lingfield and it's encouraging that he shaped well on his only previous start over hurdles.[SB]

First real race of interest today for places, and a 2 horse race in prospect, with Vodka Brook now evens favourite. Only 4 horses are under 20/1 - are these the 4 to concentrate on?
Ground concerns for the fav here and 2 mile 7 is a long way. 1.18 and 1.27 the front 2 to place

250 YARM
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Special Cuvee, 4/1 Wabi Sabi, 5/1 Dead Cat Bounce, Rose Of Coma, 7/1 Why Nee Amy, 12/1 Ba Globetrotter, 25/1 Chantilly Dancer, Shared Moment, 66/1 Avrilo, 100/1 Princess Janet, Strictly Royal.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Special Cuvee is obviously a bit better than a mundane plater but WABI SABI is capable of beating him in receipt of 10lb if anywhere near her best 2yo form.[PJ]

A seller so caution advised. The fav is holding strong at the head of the market but it is Wabi Sand at 9/4 who has attracted early support. 1.55 to place

330 MR

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Mizen Raven, 7/2 Tarabaloo, 11/2 The Dark Lord, 7/1 Tous Chez, 10/1 Livingonaknifedge, 14/1 Own Line, Sycho Fred, 20/1 Keen Warrior.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Tarabaloo ran well behind a Tim Vaughan improver at Southwell last time and it could be a similar scenario here as MIZEN RAVEN (nap) is still feasibly handicapped judged on his run at Ascot, where an extended 2m5f seemed to stretch him on what looked tiring ground.[AWJ]

A bit of a price gap here for Mizen Raven, and of interest because it's 8 runners and 3 places.2 horses are quite close, 2nd fav is a perennial 2nd placer .It is hoped the 3 horses at double figure odds can be discounted from any involvement in the business end of the race 1.22 to place and still 3 places

350 YARM
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Captain Carey, 7/2 Aakef, Bouvardia, 6/1 Theatre Street, 8/1 Bahamian Ceilidh, 10/1 Peninsular War, 12/1 Mazzola, 14/1 Love You Louis.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Captain Carey is 2-2 at this trip and may well have more to offer. However, there are a couple of interesting sorts that could do well in 3yo sprint handicaps this season, namely AAKEF and Bouvardia, both maiden winners at this track last term and relatively unexposed having had four starts each. Preference is for the now gelded Aakef, who has always been held in quite high regard and had feasible excuses on two occasions last year.[SB]

In a day of few proper opportunities, I include this race as it's 8 runners reduced to 7 BUt still hopefully 3 places. Aakef stands out in the betting, 11/10 and evens in places and obviously fancied today, but this is a 5 f handicap and the horse has not been out for many months, last running in the end of summer 2008.
One big positive is Richard Hills in the saddle, a dependable and honest jockey 1.25 to place but a big gap between back and lay prices hints that this price may increase in a market where market forces have not taken over yet

400 MR
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Wind Instrument, 9/4 Calusa Caldera, 13/2 Luccombe Bay, 16/1 Good Line, 50/1 Scuzme, 100/1 Solar Rock.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: WIND INSTRUMENT was still in there fighting when a late mistake ended all hope in the William Hill Trophy at Cheltenham, a run that stands out a mile at this level. Calusa Caldera will no doubt be waiting in the wings should the favourite blow it.[AWJ]

TAlking about dependable and honest jockeys, Choc Thornton is onboard the market leader here in a race where there are 2 clear outsiders reducing the field to 4, 2 to place
Fav last ran in a group 1 /class 1 at cHELTENHAM - this is far easier! Luccumbe Bay is the fly in the ointment here. The hope is that the market is accurate and the front 2 fight it out 1.21 to place

ONE A DAY

What a poor day today for potential place only selections, nothing stands out as rock solid

It would seem to me that Wind Instrument's run at Cheltenham in much better grade is standout, and in a race where, now, 3 horses are 20/1+ in the odds, It would seem Choc Thornton just must ensure a good round of jumping to give the selection a great chance to place .As already mentioned, Luccumbe Bay AND WIND INSRUMENT'S JUMPING OF COURSE are the flies in the ointment. 1.2 is a decent price all told.
DON'T FORGET TO CLICK AN AD TO KEEP THIS FREE