320 WINDSOR
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 The Galloping Shoe, 4/1 Elna Bright, 6/1 Den´s Gift, Trans Siberian, 8/1 Light From Mars, 12/1 Orchard Supreme, 14/1 Danetime Panther, Grey Boy, Shanzu, 20/1 Allanit, Mystery Star, 25/1 Ivory Lace.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: An interesting handicap. Elna Bright is potentially well in if Friday's Bath win is taken at face value while market confidence behind the completely unexposed The Galloping Shoe would be interesting and Light From Mars looks the type to make a better 4yo. The vote, however, goes to TRANS SIBERIAN, who is tactically versatile, is at home on this track and showed when pipped in this race last year that he can go well fresh |
Fav now 13/8 but it has been a hard hunting ground backing market movers in handicaps of late, who are well backed into short prices 1.57 to place
330 KELSO
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Professor Higgins, 7/2 Cantgeton, 5/1 High Bird Humphrey, 8/1 Seeyaaj, 9/1 Justwhateverulike, Miss Pross, 12/1 Schinken Otto, 14/1 Manhattan Boy, 16/1 King Daniel, 40/1 Lofty Leader.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The assessor looks to have given PROFESSOR HIGGINS a very fair chance on his belated handicap debut and he possibly also has room for further improvement on only his fourth chasing start. Cantgeton is also respected.[SB] |
Another handicap good thing? 13/8 across the board for the Professor. 1.43 to place
Only3 sub 10/1 and Denis O'Regan is reliable enough
340 WOLVES
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ISABELONABICYCLE needs to crack the stalls experience but she has decent claims in a race where only she and El Bravo look to hold any realistic claims.[EMW] |
A middle distance maiden sees 2nd fav who has a problem with the stalls, and a fav now 4/5 but flattered somewhat by last run.
A 9 runner race , one at 100/1 , 1 at 50/1 , 2 33/1 shots , should reduce the competitive field to 5. 1.12 and 1.37 ther front 2. Given the possible stalls problems regarding Isabelonabicycle surely this could afford a better opportunity to back at a higher price in running if there is a stalls incident
430 KELSO
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Luksar, 3/1 Dr Hellier, 6/1 Benny Boy, Devil Water, 10/1 Oca De Thaix, 12/1 Lady Brig, 14/1 Senora Moss, 16/1 Shanteen Lass, 20/1 Hooky´s Quest, 25/1 Hurricane Basil, 33/1 High Expectations, 66/1 Beauchamp Valley, Paddys Unyoke, Teerie Express.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A competitive renewal in which plenty deserve a second look. DR HELLIER is the suggestion having enhanced an already respectable pointing profile by taking a good scalp at Friars Haugh last time. Luksar should get his ground and is a standout threat, while Devil Water is the dark one.[ |
Is Benny Boy's absence going to make life easier for the front 3? Luksar shortened but not seen out on traditional courses since March 2008, BUT recent point to point success.
3 are 66/1 or bigger , 2 are 33/1 or bigger reducing the field a small bit 1.38 to place the fav
445 LIMERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Putapriceonthat, 4/1 Vaticano, 9/2 Haunting Melody, 8/1 Count John, Ghent, 12/1 Long Wait, Valentino Tango, 16/1 Teilionn, 20/1 Billy Liar, Captain Henry, Ned Of The Hill, Shanrod, 25/1 Nicky Coady.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PUTAPRICEONTHAT (nap) will take all the beating providing that he has wintered satisfactorily. |
Fav has Jonny Murtagh on board and is odds on with Vaticano a close 2nd at 9/4 - the only 2 runners sub 10/1
Haunting melody is out making life a little easier 1.16 to place in an illiquid market
500 KELSO
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: DOESLESSTHANME would not have looked out of place in one of the graded heats at Aintree last week and anything but a convincing victory will be disappointing in this company, even with the penalties.[ |
1/7 shot really stand out of course. 2 credictable runs in class 1 but a fall recently in Feb hopefully will not have left any scars.
In the meantime, a winner when in class 4 and 5 last 4 starts in that grade.
Good ground winner. Denis O Regan on board again. A fall seems the only way this one will fail
No market movers amongst the rest of the field, and in a day of poor selections, this looks to be the obvious one 1.18 the win and 1.06 the place
SHORTLIST
340 WOLVES
El BRavo at 1.12 looks to have very real place only chances, if it weren't for the fact this is 1 miles 4 furlongs maiden
445 LIMERICK - reservations about soft ground suiting a horse who's not run since Nov 2008, but Murtagh onboard and 1.16 -but this is an unrealistic price given the actual illiquid market
500 KELSO - Doeslessthanme is 1.06 to place - a little too short but should comfortably oblige bar an accident of course ( we can take nothing for granted over the jumps as Denman showed) 1.18 for the win is tradeable and something I will consider
There has been a word for GAlloping shoe in the 320 WIndsor, but at 13/8 to win, the place only price is out of kilter at 1.62 and suspiciously big ,but a price gapper in the live market, this could be an attractive place only price worthy of risk given that target profit per dayers won't be losing much. Level stakes backers though I would perhaps discourage from this.
ONE A DAY
A day better to leave alone to be honest with you with soft ground, middle distance maidens, handicap apparent good things, whose place price is too high.
I will look again at 340 WOLVES, and if El BRavo remains at the head, I will go for him above Isabelonabicycle in what I hope will be a 2 horse race 1.13 is reasonable enough I suppose. One to very definitely monitor in running and perhaps get out before the race has finished in running, using FAirbot.
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