230 folk
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Shabib, 100/30 Dice, 8/1 Precious Secret, 11/1 Muzmin, 16/1 Love Allowed, The Scorching Wind, 25/1 Cake Stand, Global Village, 40/1 Soldier Soldier, 50/1 Flirty.
Again looking for the obvious, fav is now 2/5 in places and "shouldl be hard to beat" -yes it is a maiden race but the horse has experience and placed form.No market movers lurking so this should be straightforward 1.09 to place and 3 the place
320 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Headline Act, 9/2 Sixties Swinger, 6/1 Dubai Storming, 8/1 Fin Vin De Leu, Moresco, Tinshu, 12/1 Diamond Twister, 20/1 Graycliffe.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With Fin Vin de Leu in the line-up, HEADLINE ACT should get the test of stamina he requires and that should enable him to get off the mark in handicaps. Sixties Swinger is an obvious improver, but perhaps the main danger will come from Dubai Storming who still looks like he has more to offer.[GN] |
The straight 8 and the fav now 11/8 - price gapper of sorts. One concern is that the 2nd outsider is only 12/1, hinting at some compeitiveness 1.34 to place
The live market, however, shows 3 at 16/1 or bigger who, if they run to their prices, shooulld leave the other 5 to fight out for 3 places?
330 FOLKSTONE
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Billy Beetroot, 11/4 Mythical Blue, 13/2 Fangfoss Girls, 9/1 Shadow Bay, 10/1 Louie´s Lad, 12/1 Boundless Applause, 14/1 Ba Globetrotter, Sorrel Ridge, 25/1 Dancing Welcome.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Mythical Blue commands plenty of respect on the form of his two wins in nurseries last summer but he was let go cheaply out of Stuart Williams' stable in the autumn after a couple of tame runs, raising doubts as to what he will now be capable of. Preference is for his former stablemate, BILLY BEETROOT, whose placed form for the Williams yard in better races than this one this spring entitles him to have a major say at this level. [MCu] |
9 runners down to 6 and hopefully still 3 places and the fav remains. BUT a 5 furlong seller - yikes! Still, the fav only has 3 to beat to place, one of whom is at 25/1! 1.17 to place and still 3 the place
440 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Bubses Boy, 11/2 Vita Mia, 13/2 Eightdaysaweek, 7/1 Dubai Diva, 8/1 Mountain Forest, 10/1 Shakin John, 14/1 Suitably Accoutred, Tae Kwon Do, 16/1 Amazing Blue Sky, Telling Stories, 25/1 Berriedale, Fleur De´Lion, Shadows Lengthen, 40/1 Terracotta Warrior.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Dubai Diva, Shakin John and Mountain Forest, to name but three, are open to improvement with the move up in trip for their handicap debuts, while Vita Mia's form last Monday gives her a chance. However, BUBSES BOY did most on the racecourse to prove that he will appreciate the new trip with his third when supported at Folkestone three weeks ago.[RA] |
PRice gapper but Dubai Diva and Shakin John could be significant movers. Jamie Spencer on the fav, and after the ride he gave on Thomas Baines (hmmm, another unplaced odds on shot - fancy that!) I have little or no confidence in him
505 LIMERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Castor, 11/2 La Tizona, 6/1 Captain Henry, 8/1 Conry, 10/1 Someone Praying, 14/1 Gagnant, 25/1 Classic Liberty.
Odds on shots in Ireland are usually there to be taken on, so poor is their general record. Fav now hardened into 1/2 though and well clear of rest on sole recent maiden run, running winner to within a short head.
Only 7 runners though and only 2 places
Soft ground today but fav's last run was in heavy 1.19 to place
530 TOWCESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Soixante, 15/8 Hope Road, 10/1 Man From Highworth, 50/1 Converti.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SOIXANTE boasts the best chase form courtesy of his defeat of Cheltenham/Aintree hero Oh Crick and this trip round here should be fine for him. Hope Road can make it competitive, though.[AWJ] |
I would have had this down as a 2 horse race were it not for Man From Highworth's 11/2 live market price.
One clear outsider. We saw, though, with Or Bleu yesterday, horses proven on soft do not necessarily translate to good ground
Soixante has the Champion jock on board, always a positive, and 4/7 , 4/9 in the live market may reflect his presence rather than the horse's true winning chance 1.17 to place bt a very illiquid market for the others - will need market to settle down
I also generally don't like betting at Towcester, regardless of any perceived good thing. The killer hill at he end can really finish off some horses
SHORTLIST
230 FOLK - Shabib 1.09 to place - 3 places Beaten fav twice now ,albeit short head last time. Price has really shortened in live market
10 runners, 2 at 66/1, 3 at 33/1 and 1 at 25/1 can hopefully al be discounted
The Hills partnership can be trusted
330 FOLK
Billy Beetroot of interest at 1.17 in a probability race. 6 horses now and still 3 places. Will 3 of the 6 beat Billy?
Concern that it is a 5 furlong seller but can we find 3 horses to beat a horse placed already 3 times?
530 TOWCESTER
The champion jockey is no Jamie Spencer and when he's on a fav, he doesn't mess around.Soixante seemingly has 2 to beat to place, 2nd fav is 13lb inferior to him BUT Man from Highworth has halved in odds which puts a spanner in the works somewhat
1/2 in live market and 1.18 to place, of course the only problems with jumps is falling/being pulled up
Towcester itself is not my favourite track given its intricacies
The question remains - how signifcant a market move is the one for the 3rd fav? Will Man from Highworth AND Hope Road beat the McCoy horse?
It all becomes a little less sraightforward than at first it appeared!
ONE A DAY
2 selections at higher odds and a bleedin' obvious one at bleedin' obviously short odds
All have merit I feel, so I will have to take my medicine and go with Shabib at 1.09. There will be other days with better odds.. Just hope he performs and places, and he market move and fact he has placed consistently, AND there are no other market movers at time of writing AND the Hills boys should all enable s to get a good ru for our money!
Football of course offers us better odds
Dinamo Bucharest are 1.26 to win todayI am taken by the 10/1 quoted at Laddies for the opponents- no chance they say!
http://www.betdevil.com/gu_matches.php?m=466891
offers analysis of this game - great home record, won 10, drawn 2, lost 1
Opponents away have lost 7 and drawn 4
Gloria undefeated in last 3 games a slight cause for concern. Recent head to heads have not shown an emphatic Dinamo win - 16 goals in 6 games means they can score - a game to trade perhaps hoping Dinamo score first
Real Maadrid face Getafe and are 1.32 to win. Preference perhaps for the over 1.5 goal market at 1.24 to trade afer a goal
real should score first for traders
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