Friday, 24 April 2009

No problems from either Eradicate or Hold em yesterday
1.25 kick off today caght me a little off guard so on with it
125 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Racketeer, 7/2 Thief Of Time, 4/1 Feeling Fab, 7/1 Midnight Cruiser, 8/1 Cruikadyke, 9/1 Sohcahtoa, 10/1 Zaffaan, 12/1 Effort.Thief of Time a strong /4 in the live market in this class 2 handicap.One of only 3 under 14/1 Has been very close in this 3 runs to date - one in handicap company, 2 in maidens. Not run in class
2 though 1.31 to place

200 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Taameer, 5/1 Malibu Bay, 13/2 Saptapadi, 7/1 Mishrif, 8/1 Big Bound, 20/1 Above Average.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: These very lightly raced sorts have to be respected when top trainers pitch them in at Group level so quickly, and it is an eyecatching move with Saptapadi in particular, but TAAMEER (nap) has done easily the most so far and he's had only two races himself. He is very much the type from whom significant progress can be expected as a 3yo.[RA]

First price gapper of the day, but not quite the same price gap in the live market and the reason - well it's Aiden O'Brien and Jonny Murtagh - that's why on MAlibu Bay.Group level, and lighly raced sorts = good horses, BUT price gappers at this level must be respected 1.59 and 1.92 tells you all you need to know about the competitive nature of this race. Those with a glass half full will see these as grea prices

210 PERTH

BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Hazeldene, 7/4 Rouge Et Blanc, 9/1 Prince Tam, 12/1 Special Flight, 14/1 Patriot, 16/1 Give Us A Gander, National Heritage, 20/1 Alan´s Legacy, Miss Toozy Betsy, 25/1 Rolecarr, 50/1 Highland Patriot, 66/1 Auberge, Cabbyl Doo, Solway Blue, 100/1 Amulree, 200/1 Ravensbill.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With Rouge Et Blanc blowing out in the last here yesterday, the way looks open for HAZELDENE to gain an overdue success, unless one of the others steps up on all known form.[JN]

Rouge et blanc is a non runner shich surely makes Hazeldene's job a whole lot easier ,big field and a maiden hurdle 1.23 to place

410 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Almaty Express, 3/1 Wotashirtfull, 9/2 Even Bolder, 6/1 Compton Classic, 7/1 Desperate Dan, 9/1 First Order, 16/1 Woodcote, 25/1 Firenza Bond.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Almaty Express is feared given his overall profile but WOTASHIRTFULL (nap) brings form in better company to the table and gets the nod after his decent effort at Epsom in the week. First Order and Even Bolder should also go well.[GN

Now 6 runners and hopefully still 3 places, Almaty express remains. Are there 3 horses to beat this original favourite? 1.45 to place and perhaps a gamble based on probability?

510 CHEPStoW

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Hell´s Bay, 9/2 Bonikos, Our Hero, 11/2 Adroit Approach, 8/1 Roman Conquest, 33/1 On Oath, 66/1 Eyesrdancing, Norwest, 80/1 Magic Marmalade, Ridiculousdecision, 100/1 Wenruthlyn,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Providing first-time blinkers have a positive effect, the 135-rated HELL'S BAY should be able to take advantage of a drop back in class. Bonikos and Our Hero may prove best of the remainder.[SB]

THe usual Walsh/Nicholls hot pot at the head of the market. Adroit Approach the market mover. of the 12 are 66/1 or bigger and can, hopefully be dismissed.This leaves 6 fighting for 3 places 1.18 to place

535 BANGOR

BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Chord, 3/1 Silver Bank, 8/1 Street Warrior, Thunderwing, 16/1 Pistol Hill, Ras Laffan, Russian Lad, 20/1 Bret Maverick, Suragot, 100/1 Lord Of Dreams, Riccardo.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SILVER BANK and Chord appeal most. Preference goes to the former who handled similar conditions well when scoring in a slightly more competitive race recently.[BDO]

Only 4 under 14/1 1.41 and 1.57 the front 2 but illiqud market means these prices may rise

620 CHEPSTOW

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Natal, 3/1 Andrew Nick, 4/1 Cousin Nicky, 8/1 Turbulance, 12/1 Rash Moment, 20/1 Ben Ryan, 25/1 Arceye, 40/1 Definitely It.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Natal takes a massive drop in class and would take plenty of beating on anything approaching his best form but he's been badly out of sorts since his reappearance and hasn't fully convinced on previous tries at this trip. He's worth taking on with ANDREW NICK, while Cousin Nicky is also respected.[

8 down to 7 runners and 3 horses now 33/1 or bigger which should reduce the competitive field further to 4 - 3 of whom will place.NAtal looks all over the place and it is Andrew Nick's form, at first glance, will appeals most for the place only backer ( assuming of course Betfair still pay 3 the place) 1.25 Andrew Nick to place

630 DUNDALK

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Wrong Answer, 2/1 Bank On Black, 10/1 Bada Bling, 12/1 Cupan Tae, 16/1 Pax A Punch, Porto Banus, 33/1 Cementry Lane, No Acting, 50/1 Lukes Desire, Mirror Perfect.

Murtagh flies back to Sandown to ride in Dundalk - this either says that the horse at Sandown is expected to do something OR he's expecting a couple of good runs at Dundalk - on the 2nd fav here 1.14 and 1.21 he front 2 BUT illiquid market means these are not the realistic prices

630 NA

BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Safari Journey, 7/1 Sweet World, 8/1 Keyneema, 9/1 Ruby Valentine, 12/1 Raise Again, 14/1 Jeffison, 20/1 Skipper´s Lad, 33/1 How Realee, Lets Get Cracking, 40/1 Missie Geore, 50/1 Sally Army.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The Wincanton win of SAFARI JOURNEY suggests he has plenty in hand with no penalty to carry and connections will be keen to strike again before the handicapper has a chance to react. Sweet World heads the dangers.[SR]Price gapper here in a handicap with no penalty 1.13 to place

640 BANGOR

BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Tuskar Rock, 2/1 Vasodilator, 10/1 Molly Rodgers, 12/1 Von Galen, 14/1 Come West, 16/1 Our Ashley, 20/1 Stran Millis, 25/1 Flora Milly, Sleepers Hill, 50/1 Pistol At Dawn, 100/1 Dawn Street, Sawyer´s Gold.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TUSKAR ROCK boasts solid form in stronger races than this and, with conditions to suit, he can deliver an overdue first win. Vasodilator is the obvious danger.[BDO]Maiden hurdle and 2 dominate with only 3 under 10/1 1.17 and 1.3 the front 2 to place

705 NA

BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Hold Em, 5/4 Roby De Cimbre, 12/1 Outside Investor, 100/1 Paul Superstar, Rock Captain, 150/1 Master Rat.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ROBY DE CIMBRE is unlikely to lack much in the way of fitness despite his break and this trip might be marginally more suitable for him than Hold Em, who achieved very little when winning a soft event at Uttoxeter last night.[EMW]

a 3 horse race and Hold em is back again. My concern is yesterday's race - yes he trounced em, but it was 3 miles but it must be said his jumping was superb so anyone considering backing him should have no concerns in that regard2nd fav not run since Sept 2008 1.21 and 1.25 the front 2 to place

755 CHEPSTOW

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Fistral Beach, 13/8 China Gold, 8/1 Stratford Stroller, 12/1 Creagh Bay, 14/1 Gospel Spirit, 25/1 Hi Tide, Spangle Island, 33/1 Jaunty, 66/1 Ray´s Round, 100/1 General Simara.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: FISTRAL BEACH has proved very expensive to follow but he should prove capable of winning a race of this nature and looks worth one more chance. China Gold is his main rival on paper.[

Walsh/Nicholls and Thornton/King on 1st and 2ndFav has placed on all 5 most recent starts and China Gold has 2 2nds.I can't split them and I hope the race is fought out between them. 1.1 and 1.13 the front 2 to place

SHORTLIST
210 Perth Hazeldene is missing joint fav at the head of the market so should be presented with a great opportunity here. now odds on

410 WOLVES - from a purely probablity perspective 6 runners and 3 places and the original betting forecast favourite was obviously originally fancied. 1.45 is a decent gamble price in the hope that 3 horses do NOT beat Almaty Express

510 CHEPSTOWDrop down in class is always good for Hells Bay to see as is Ruby Walsh in the plate. 1.18 is reasonable if we can assume this is a 6 horse race and the outsiders run as such.

620 CHEPSTOWNatal does take an eyecatching drop in class but recent form really is bad. Andrew Nick, on the other hand, has been consistent enough and in this 8 runner race, has 5 to beat to place - 1.25705 NA - 6 runner field and 3 are clear outsiders. One of the remainder is at 12/1 leaving the front 2. Hold Em mighty impressive ( as he should have been at 1/5 under McCoy) yesterday -1.21 and 1.25 the front 2.Will Hold em run as he did yesterday? Will yesterday's race have affected him fitness wise -after all it was 3 miles

755 CHEPSTOWShould concern Fistral BEach and China Gold - unlike Hazeldene's race, the market rivals remain and cannot readily be spearated.Walsh and Thornton my 2 favourite jumps jockeys for the trustworthiness factor, and the hope is they fight out the finish 1.1 and 1.13

ONE A DAY

THe problems with days like today and so many candidates is invariably picking the one who doesn't place in the midst of all the others who place easily! lol

Chance on Hazeldene today for me I think. Jockey is familiar with the horse and now odds on.1.23 to placeThere are many good candidates today. Target profit per dayers might want to inspect the 410 wolves for bigger prices and lower stake outlay for more of a "gamble " betAll jumps candidates today

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