9/4

Live market followers will have seen Filiun's race decimated to ,I think, 4 or 5 runners with still 3 the place, AND I POUNCED ON IT! Superb probability bet.
Green Beret won but I was just worried with the absence. Copenhagen and Celtic won. Market movers heleped by Garstang a 12/1 winner in the evening meetings

May 1st will see the 6 month anniversary of the beginning of the place only blog and in that time I have proved sufficiently that this is workable both as target profit per day, level stakes and 10% of a rolling bank Now if you want this blog to remain free (and remember it's not obligatory on my part) then I would ask each reader to please click on one of the adverts shown in google ads each time they view the blog. This way I can justify the time spent and ensure I continue free for the foreseeable future.
It's a small price to ask, well infact it's still free at your end! Please make this a habit and I will continue to give of my time and expertise freely with both market movers and place only selections.

It takes just ONE click on an ad per day, then press the "back" button and go back to the blog - you don't even have to read the webpages you're directed to.

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Thank you.

140 FOLK
BETTING FORECAST: 100/30 Musiara, 4/1 Monsieur Chevalier, 7/1 Diamond Laura, 8/1 Diamond Affair, 10/1 Papageno, 12/1 Anjomarba, Lady Lion, Little Perc, Safari Camp, 20/1 Ever So Bold, 25/1 Our Georgie Girl, Rufus Roughcut, Saachi´s Vision,

MARKET MOVERS - Diamond affair into 5/2 favouratism and Ever so bold 11/1 in places
A race with many debutants so the usual confidence in market movers is dampened in this case as we have only the possible of a gamble to follow and no collateral form to check

150 WIN
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Weststern, 11/2 Quiny Boy, 15/2 Tenor De Balme, 17/2 Jocheski, Star Tenor, 10/1 Hampton Court, Murphy, 11/1 Gainsborough´s Art, Lepido, 12/1 Grand Article, 14/1 Wujood, 16/1 Lunces Lad, 20/1 High Carol, Nesotho, 25/1 Bid Art, Katalak, Ruby Valentine, 40/1 Zion.

MARKET MOVERS - Lepido into 5/1 , Grand article into 7/1 and High Carol into 11/1
It worked backing multiple movers yesterday in one race with a 1st ,2nd and 4th in a 16+ handicap , the winner coming at 10/1

210 FOLK
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Rare Art, 5/1 Perfect Class, 6/1 Battle, Riflessione, 7/1 Defector, 10/1 Red Rossini, 12/1 Jeremiah, Mr Flannegan, 14/1 White Shift, 16/1 Shadow Bay, The Winged Assasin, 20/1 Amosite.
Red Rossini 6/1 and The Winged Assassin 7/1 MARKET MOVERS

220 WINCANTON
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Wednesday Country, 3/1 Ede´Iff, 6/1 Joe Deane, 8/1 Classic Clover, Dennis The Legend, 12/1 Alcatras, 16/1 Orion Star, 33/1 Maree Hall, Serve Notice, 50/1 And Your Point Is, Lavenoak Lad.

MARKET MOVERS - Lavenoak lad 12/1 ( check ou the betting forecast price above!!) and Orion star 12/1

230 LUDLOW
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Fade To Grey, 3/1 Capo Di Capi, 5/1 Khun John, 7/1 Petrosian, 14/1 Hum The Tune, Shanahan, 20/1 Backlash, 33/1 Southern Bazaar, 66/1 Mac Don, Star Berry,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Victor Dartnall has a strong hand with Fade To Grey and KHUN JOHN and although the latter has yet to run over hurdles and looks the second string on jockey bookings, he's an interesting runner in this grade as a triple Flat winner who has shown he retains plenty of ability after a lengthy break this winter. Capo Di Capi is the other to consider.[RY]

PLACE ONLY - FAde to grey remains strong at 11/10 but a note - he has unseated rider and fallen in 2 of last 3 races.
4 horses are 33/1 or bigger and only 4 under double figure odds. Down in grade but this is a selling hurdle

240 FOLK

BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Artistic License, 5/1 Resplendent Alpha, 6/1 Aye Aye Digby, Rash Judgement, 8/1 We Have A Dream, 12/1 For Life, Hustle, Vhujon, 14/1 Buxton, Credit Swap, Regal Royale, 25/1 Billy Red.

Vhujon 7/1 in places MARKET MOVER

250 WIN
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Earth Dream, 7/1 Major Malarkey, Pourdel, Presentandcorrect, 10/1 Or Sing About, Richard´s Sundance, 14/1 Lordsbridge, Mister Wiseman, Winsley Hill, 25/1 Portland Bill, Wun Chai, 50/1 Prince De Lacour.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Earth Dream is interesting after an improved effort at Kempton last time but, from this 11lb higher mark, he is taken on with the similarly unexposed POURDEL, who turned in his best effort on his handicap debut back on a sound surface last time and shapes as though he'll be suited by the step up to 2m6f. [RY]

Price gapper but unnervingly 11/4 in the live market. Pourdel a market mover into 9/2 along with Portland Bill at 14/1 in places and Lordsbridge 6/1 in places

310 FOLK
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Three Moons, 4/1 Towanda, 7/1 Polly´s Mark, 8/1 Invincible Isle, 12/1 Qelaan, Saa´Ida, Stormy´s Prelude, 16/1 Crag Path, Hold The Star, 33/1 Asakusa, 50/1 Pursuit Of Purpose, 100/1 Mono´s Only, Vita Mia,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Market confidence behind Towanda would be significant but likely otherwise this is a decent opportunity for THREE MOONS (nap) to gain a deserved success over a trip that should suit.[AC]

PLACE ONLY - THree moons now at 4/5 and usually Ryan Moore tends to boot these shorties home, but this is a maiden fillies event and Grag Hill is 10/1 market mover
Price gap enhanced in the live market. Caution - 2nd fav is a debutant and must be interesting if 2nd fav?

330 LUDLOW
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Gee Dee Nen, 4/1 Aqualung, 10/1 Creagh Bay, 12/1 Shenanigan, 14/1 Baddam, Sawpit Solitaire, 100/1 Perryston Prince.

PLACE ONLY - fav now 1/2 and 4/9 in places but looks a difficult race with only 2 places

350 WIN
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Caoba, 5/2 Alflora Dora, 7/2 Lady Hillingdon, 5/1 Rith Bob, 11/1 Palmito, 12/1 Charlottes Webb, 33/1 Chilla Cilla, 50/1 Ecureuille Rouge, Hardly Humble, Meet Me At Dawn, Sally Army, 66/1 Classical Act, Quoin, 100/1 Newnham Flyer.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Only a handful at most look serious win contenders. LADY HILLINGDON's Navan second last time was a decent enough effort to earn her the vote, with the fact that her half-brother Dangerously Good was a decent hurdler at about this trip encouraging with regards her stamina for this longer distance. Caoba may be next best, ahead of Alflora Dora. [MCu]

A race of 2 halves. 6 horses are 100/1 or bigger, one is 33/1 leaving an apparent 6 horse race for 3 places.

400 LUD

BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Supreme Duke, 3/1 Black Hills, 9/2 Fier Normand, 6/1 Sou´Wester, 9/1 Kilrogan, 10/1 Prestbury Knight, 12/1 Dev, 33/1 Bring Me Sunshine, 50/1 Tyup Pompey.

MARKET MOVER - Prestbury Knight 7/1

410 FOLK

BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Shanafarahan, 9/2 Sir Haydn, 5/1 Compton Charlie, 8/1 Barbirolli, 10/1 Calzaghe, 12/1 Itsawindup,  Mixing, 14/1 Lady Hestia,  Thirtyfourthstreet, 16/1 Sand Repeal, 20/1 Summer Bounty, 25/1 Up In Arms, 100/1 Charlie Bear,  Funky Town.

MARKET MOVERS - Lady HEstia 10/1 and Up in arma 14/1

420 WINCANTON

BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Turthen, 11/2 Baodai, 13/2 Get My Drift, 7/1 Who Else Knew, 11/1 The Big Breakfast, 14/1 Trade Off, 25/1 Master John,  Toi Express, 40/1 Shraden Edition, 50/1 Cape Verde Sal.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A race that revolves around TURTHEN, who will win this with something to spare if in the same form as when second at Cheltenham. He did finish tired at the end of a tough race there but has had nearly a month to recover and, all things considered, looks by far the likeliest winner. Who Else Knew may be next best, ahead of Get My Drift and Baodai. [MCu] Price gapper still odds on in this hunters chase over 3 miles + . Lady jockey on board .Been running in class 1,2 and 3 so a potential place only candidate 500 LUDLOW BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Quarl Ego, 5/1 Cootehill, 6/1 Key Cutter, 8/1 Prof De L´Isle, 10/1 Mad Jack Duncan,  Max Bygraves,  Novarra, 14/1 The Composer,  Tootsie Too, 16/1 Cool Cliche,  Farmers Cross, 25/1 Daarth, 33/1 Rothres. SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A tricky affair in which it may pay to give MAX BYGRAVES a chance to atone for his flop last time. Prof De L'Isle could give him plenty to do if there is rain.[FC] Farmers cross 12/1 in places and Prof de lisle 9/2 in places MARKET MOVERS 545 TIPP BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Three Rocks, 6/1 Russian Empress, 8/1 Aleonard,  Crooked Throw,  Patio, 10/1 Croi Mo Ri, 66/1 Flight Dream. SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: THREE ROCKS has been a revelation this term and has the makings of a potential Group-race contender. As a three-year-old last season he failed to build on a debut win at Dundalk, but the manner of his two victories this season has been quite spectaclular. He gave his rivals a start when winning a 6f handicap at the Curragh, and was ridden with terrific confidence from well off the pace when following up over 7f at Leopardstown a week later. An aggregate rise of 21lb for those two wins has elevated him to a level that makes him very hard to oppose now.\n  Ran poorly when last encountering heavy ground, but is the increase in performance going to offset this potential niggle. Only 2 places but clearly a highly respected favourite SHORTLIST

230 LUDLOW - the value of doing it as late as possible - - - FAde to grey a non runner now -Capo de Capi at 13/8 takes over favouratism, but head of market looks tight and I doubt they will finish 1-2-3.  1.43 to place tells us this is no gimme

310 FOLK - Three Moons is 1.21 to place. Can we make a case for a fav in a maiden fillies event with 13 runners and 2nd and 3rd favs debutants?

Well

• has come 2nd 3 times in similar grade. Very consistent. LAst run was in a class 2 so a huge leap and a consequent 8th place
• Ryan Moore booked - one of the more solid flat jockeys
• 5 horses are at 25/1 or bigger reducing the competitive field, it is hoped, to 8, 3 of whom will place
• PRice gap is pronounced in the live market
• 2nd places havebeen in class 4 - this is class 5
• No significant market movers lurking to spoil the party

420 WINCANTON - Turthen is a price gapper in a hunter chase - not ideal races, this 10 runner race sees 4 at 33/1 or bigger reducing the competitive field to 6, 3 of whom will place

1.25 to place

Sharp drop in class to class 6 after placed efforts in better races. 

Jockey has ridden horse before. Female jockey on board a slight negative but not facing professionals like AP McCoy et al

545 TIPP - IT has been wise, in the past, to ignore heavy ground possibles, but a mention for Three Rocks, a potential Group Horse!RAn in a group 3 in heavy and obviously well beaten. 1.12 to place and only 2 places so we really must be confident, and certainly, Spotlight is confident "very hard to oppose now" The niggle of course is the ground

ONE A DAY

A day, again, where I would prefer a footballbet but I'm aware my cautious attitude yesterday was unfounded.

The strongest case today I think is Three Moons. The others are in a selling hurdle, Hunter Chase, and a heavy ground 2 the place race.

Next best would be Turthen to monitor in running

A good football bet as an alternative looks to be Boca Juniors at 1.16 at 115am tomorrow morning.

Football teams at home priced this low usually win by 2 clear goals  or more so a degree of confidence here. I am going purely by price here, so anyone fancying this do a google for Copa Libertadores and just check Boca have been booting home the goals. Previous similarly matched games have seen score lines of 3-0 and 4-1

In conclusion, a maiden fillies race with 13 runners is not my ideal at all (exacerbated by the absence of the fav), but the hope is those previous 2nd places can at least be replicated

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