Wednesday, 6 August 2008

6/8

Nice to get Feeling Fab beaten by my selection but place only at 1.18 was highly disappointing. Short price fav (relativel speaking in the 300) beaten by 50/1 Spiders star . Odds on lay Royal island won by 8 lengths! doh!

Liverpool won easily and Rangers did get the first goal which was good enough for me -original price shortening enough to trade



230 BRIGHTON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Starry Sky, 9/2 Admiral Sandhoe, Helpmeronda, 11/2 Saharan Royal, 10/1 Perfect Shot, 12/1 Red Reef, 33/1 Kersivay, 66/1 Teneo Vestri .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: STARRY SKY has a decent opportunity to get off the mark and can get back Catterick losses, possibly at the main expense of Admiral Sandhoe

Starry Sky place only again probably at short odds - all horses have had a run in this maiden and the fav looks to be progressing steadily

Irish combos not as successful yesterday but we have Sligo and Gowran Park today. Preference for the each ways

620 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Safari Sundowner, 7/2 Show Winner, 6/1 Resplendent Ace, Shimoni, 8/1 Motarjm, Prime Number, Wind Flow, 16/1 Lisathedaddy ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Show Winner and Resplendent Ace both make some appeal under these conditions, while a market move for Shimoni would look significant on her first run for Gary Moore. SAFARI SUNDOWNER continues to go from strength to strength on the Polytrack though and he can record another success this time.

Fav been very impressive on all weather with 3 from 4 wins - if short enough I will entertain a lay with 6 horses between 7/2 - 8/1 in the betting forecast

820
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Once A Gulch, 5/1 Act Of Diplomacy, 6/1 Blow Hole, 8/1 Pivka, Two Pass, 10/1 Mawatheeq, 12/1 Mazaris, Walhalla, 16/1 Seasonal Cross, 20/1 Hammer, 33/1 Cape Roberto, Gaelic Dancer, 50/1 Mayfair´s Future, Summer Loving .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Jeremy Noseda looks to hold a strong hand here with both Blowhole and Once A Gulch having sound claims. The latter looks the pick of the pair but he has a tricky draw to negotiate and is likely to be short enough with that in mind. There are some fascinating newcomers here, notably Act Of Diplomacy and MAWATHEEQ, and the latter, who makes plenty of appeal on pedigree, is worth chancing this time

Once a Gulch layable here in a maiden with many newcomers - price a little big

210 PONTE
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Holiday Cocktail, 6/1 Artreju, Bavarica, Fort Churchill, Jackie Kiely, Night Orbit, 12/1 Iceman George, 25/1 Cheviot Red, Littleton Telchar, 66/1 Phoenix Nights .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It's hard to be sure what will take them along here and there's always the possibility of a tactical affair. Simon Walker has won this twice in the last five years and has every chance of adding to the tally on Holiday Cocktail, but FORT CHURCHILL has shown signs of being on the way back of late and is preferred. Easing of the ground would suit Night Orbit

Holiday Cocktail keeps winning alternate races - he won last time so will this now be a loss this race to keep the sequence going OR is this sequence going to be ended by the horse stringing 2 wins together. ? Decisions decisions - Hint of a price gap here too but look at the 5 horses at 6/1 beetting forecast price just queuing up.
Amateur riders race and I'll chance a lay of Holiday Cocktail, as long as the price is reasonable

805 YARM
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Askar Tau, 100/30 Sphere, 5/1 Dramatic Solo, 6/1 Irish Quest, 17/2 Naughty Thoughts, 9/1 Given A Choice, 66/1 Peas ´n Beans .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ASKAR TAU (nap) has impressed winning his last two starts and has strong claims of defying a penalty and completing a hat-trick. Sphere produced a personal best last time, could step up again over this longer trip and rates the main danger. Others who could threaten are Irish Quest who hit form at about this time last year, and Dramatic Solo who dominated a tactical affair last time.

On the hatrick and layable with a penalty -Sphere is close as is Dramatic solo in the hope they can edge infront

Change of tack today with some bigger priced lays - ideally confirmation wanted in the early market as to the prices

The Winning Gap is a system I have talked about and I've done a little detective work and it is similar in structure to my price gapper system which seeks to identify big price differentials between the market leader and the rest of the field in the betting forecast - so possible qualifiers today

230 BRIG
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Starry Sky, 9/2 Admiral Sandhoe, Helpmeronda, 11/2 Saharan Royal, 10/1 Perfect Shot, 12/1 Red Reef, 33/1 Kersivay, 66/1 Teneo Vestri .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: STARRY SKY has a decent opportunity to get off the mark and can get back Catterick losses, possibly at the main expense of Admiral Sandhoe.[

BUT maiden race

820 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Once A Gulch, 5/1 Act Of Diplomacy, 6/1 Blow Hole, 8/1 Pivka, Two Pass, 10/1 Mawatheeq, 12/1 Mazaris, Walhalla, 16/1 Seasonal Cross, 20/1 Hammer, 33/1 Cape Roberto, Gaelic Dancer, 50/1 Mayfair´s Future, Summer Loving .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Jeremy Noseda looks to hold a strong hand here with both Blowhole and Once A Gulch having sound claims. The latter looks the pick of the pair but he has a tricky draw to negotiate and is likely to be short enough with that in mind. There are some fascinating newcomers here, notably Act Of Diplomacy and MAWATHEEQ, and the latter, who makes plenty of appeal on pedigree, is worth chancing this time

Race full of debutants and a big field maiden

920 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Vilna, 4/1 Shy, 6/1 Novestar, 8/1 Greek Theatre, 10/1 Bushy Dell, Wise Hawk, 12/1 Loyal Knight, 20/1 Harting Hill .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: VILNA (nap) was impressive here last time and with Shy and Novestar in the line-up, this should be run to suit him. He remains unexposed over this sort of trip and although he may not be entirely straightforward, he is on an upward curv

Price gap here but a "winning gap"? Handicap - last time out winner on all weather

210 PONTE
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Holiday Cocktail, 6/1 Artreju, Bavarica, Fort Churchill, Jackie Kiely, Night Orbit, 12/1 Iceman George, 25/1 Cheviot Red, Littleton Telchar, 66/1 Phoenix Nights .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It's hard to be sure what will take them along here and there's always the possibility of a tactical affair. Simon Walker has won this twice in the last five years and has every chance of adding to the tally on Holiday Cocktail, but FORT CHURCHILL has shown signs of being on the way back of late and is preferred. Easing of the ground would suit Night Orbit

Slight price gap - already mentioned this race

240 PONTE
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Olympic Dream, 7/2 Demand, 7/1 Age Of Magic, Ay Tay Tate, 14/1 Agent Stone, Alexander Gulch, 16/1 Moorhouse Lass, Rising Kheleyf, Sampower Rose, 25/1 Zelos Diktator, 33/1 Veroon, 66/1 Sweet Virginia .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A number of unknown quantities to contend with and the betting should be helpful, but OLYMPIC DREAM may well find this easier than the race in which he was a creditable third at York and he could be the answer

Maiden and "unknown quantities"

310 PONTE
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Thumbs Up, 5/1 Penchesco, 8/1 Admiral Dundas, Welcome Return, 10/1 Eton Fable, 12/1 Island Music, 16/1 Mill Beattie, 20/1 The Twelve Steps, 25/1 Valferno, 50/1 Geordie Girl, Zabougg ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: THUMBS UP (nap) was keen enough off a steady pace after missing the kick last time and a 4lb rise should be managable with improvement left in him. Penchesco would make more appeal than the other last-time-out winners, Admiral Dundas and Eton Fable, if the ground is considered all right

Good price gap here - winner LTO - handicap

805 YARM
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Askar Tau, 100/30 Sphere, 5/1 Dramatic Solo, 6/1 Irish Quest, 17/2 Naughty Thoughts, 9/1 Given A Choice, 66/1 Peas ´n Beans .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ASKAR TAU (nap) has impressed winning his last two starts and has strong claims of defying a penalty and completing a hat-trick. Sphere produced a personal best last time, could step up again over this longer trip and rates the main danger. Others who could threaten are Irish Quest who hit form at about this time last year, and Dramatic Solo who dominated a tactical affair last time.

Already commented on
I am trying to find the missing ingredients but the system definitely involves price gappers but what is the final selection criteria? Spotlight's napped it? Number of tips? RPR? Postdata? Mos recent form?

No comments: