The chase course at Leopardstown was soft (heavy in places) and the alternatives Man Utd and Lyon were a class apart winning 4-1 and 3-1 respectively without the problem of obstacles or dodgy ground or falling ( apart from Ronaldo of course)
Market movers - again generally big prices ,some at 12/1 ,some at 14/1 means we can't expect winners regularly. Alexander Severus was a head and neck 3rd in a race he should have won
GEneral Tufto another winner for my price gapper in a class 5/6 0-50 handicap!
155 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Fantasy Ride, 6/1 Catai, Super Sensation, 8/1 York Cliff, 12/1 Border Tale, Corlough Mountain, Ruling Reef, 14/1 Conny Nobel, 16/1 Inn For The Dancer, 20/1 Gratuitous, 25/1 Mega Steps,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Catai should be more at home in this sort of company than in novice hurdles and is respected with Simon Walker on board, but FANTASY RIDE (nap) comes into the race in decent form and a reproduction of his latest Lingfield second would probably suffice.[PSm] |
Another in General Tufto's mould here in a 0-52 - caution - "leading apprentice" bookes.
Super sensation has been nibbled at to close the price gap in the live market 1.33 to place
205 MR
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Glimmer Of Light, Tosula, 5/1 Festival Dreams, 13/2 Bawnafaugh, 8/1 Gobejolly, 10/1 Safin, Zorro De La Vega, 16/1 No Telling, 20/1 Government, 33/1 Winds Supreme, 50/1 Purr.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Tosula is a better horse now then when she was last seen over hurdles and looks a serious contender with Robert Thornton again on board, but GLIMMER OF LIGHT's kinder weight may prove decisive given the conditions and Charlie Huxley is the man to get a tune out of him. Festival Dreams is also respected. |
Safin 4/1 but heavy ground
215 CARLISLE
BETTING FORECAST: 5/1 Babe Heffron, Johns Square, 11/2 Its A Classic, 6/1 Mr Twins, 13/2 Mitchel Henry, 8/1 Seek The Truth, 10/1 Ballynure, Nicozetto, 12/1 Luzenie, 14/1 Gunadoir, 16/1 Jacksonville, 50/1 Tully Hill.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Johns Square is impossible to assess accurately for this chasing debut but could be the one if the market speaks in his favour. Market reference is also required, though, for winning pointer BABE HEFFRON, who should appreciate the switch to fences if fully fit after a lengthy absence.[PJ] |
Ballynure 7/1 - not much of a move and heavy ground
235 MR
BETTING FORECAST: 2/7 Our Hero, 5/1 Callitwhatyalike, 10/1 Briery Star, 25/1 El Chico, Lake Wakatipu, 33/1 Nowzdetime.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: His stable may be enduring a tough season (only three winners since October) but OUR HERO looks a good thing nevertheless, having shaped with so much promise in a strong contest at Newbury |
Our Hero obvious contender BUT for heavy ground 1.11 to place
250 CARLISLE
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hard to look beyond RATE OF KNOTS, who should have a cakewalk on these favourable terms. Tacinja may be best of her rivals.[EMW] |
Another shortie in heavy ground but McCoy on board 1.19 to place
325 CARL
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Le Roi Rouge, 4/1 Norminster, 7/1 Oso Magic, 8/1 Bog Oak, Euro American, 10/1 Hollows Mill, 12/1 Stormy Beech, 14/1 Cantgeton, Et Maintenant, 16/1 Incorporation, 20/1 Anglican.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Ferdy Murphy, in winning form at the weekend, can strike with another mudlark in the shape of LE ROI ROUGE (nap), who should appreciate the drop in both trip and class and the resumption of his partnership with Graham Lee. Norminster, a C&D winner in the mud just before Christmas, may be the one to beat off his feather weight.[PJ] |
Anglican now 14/1 but heavy again
345 MR
BETTING FORECAST: 1/3 Aachen, 6/1 Maidstone Mixture, 13/2 Super Directa, 10/1 Cherokee Star, 25/1 Spume, 50/1 Bright Falcon, 66/1 Nowzdetime, Welcome Cat.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hard to see past AACHEN, who was granted a couple of Cheltenham entries after passing his first test over hurdles with flying colours. Super Directa and Maidstone Mixture can lead the chase.[AWJ] |
Another shortie in heavy - a few Cheltenham likelys getting a run out today 1.08 to place - 3 the place
400 CARL
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Auroras Encore, 6/4 Psychomodo, 8/1 Storymaker, 14/1 Kempski, 20/1 Pistol Basc, 40/1 Almond Court, Autumngold.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Auroras Encore disappointed in desperate conditions here on his chasing debut, so marginal preference is for PSYCHOMODO even though left for dead by Lightning Strike at Doncaster where he had been preferred in the market to Sue Smith's gelding.[PJ] |
Pistol BAsc 16/1 and Spotlight tells us he does handle heavy ground
410 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Smooth Sovereign, 3/1 Spartan Prince, 8/1 Rosko, 10/1 Ensnare, The Staffy, Tillietudlem, 14/1 Simonside, 16/1 Fire Me Gun, Uncle Bertie, 20/1 Alittlemoreflair, 25/1 Keen As Mustard, Rannoch Rose, 50/1 Fine The World.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Smooth Sovereign just about sets the standard but he has had a year off and it doesn't inspire confidence that he only went through the ring for 800gns. SPARTAN PRINCE has shown a little promise in two runs to date and could be the answer in a weak race.[PSm] |
Simonside 7/2 in places
425 NAVAN
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 An Innocent Man, 11/4 Solstice Knight, 7/1 Porticcio, 10/1 Jamsie Hall, Scolboa Music Man, 12/1 Lord Cebellino, Rudigreen, 14/1 Light Sentence, Pistol Jack, Vincent Pipe, 20/1 Royal Debs, Scenic Rush, 25/1 Amber Knight, Captain Bondi, Dinmont, Mighty Massini, Miss Ali Ann, 33/1 Carrickshock, Domo Arigato, Go On Ya Boyo, No More Prisoners, Sintenis Mac, 50/1 Ethans Rocker, Mooney´s Vic, Woodfield Lord, 66/1 City Of Doral, Cloda´s Choice, Oughterlin, Temple Bay, Western Island.
Solstice Knight now fav but 30 runners!
450 MR
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Lemonade Jack, 9/4 Elsafeer, 3/1 Harellie, 5/1 Louis Ludwig, 33/1 Stanley Hall.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The market will be a crucial tool with one of the newcomers likely to come out on top and, as his stable usually means business when securing the services of Robert Thornton, the suggestion is ELSAFEER. |
Stanley Hall 18/1 in places
ONE A DAY
Likely ,and obvious contenders over the jumps today. Some Cheltenham contenders out today. HEavy ground at all jumps venues sounds a note of caution. At least one of these shorties will win and win well, but which one? Aachen is in a 3 the place race but at 1.08 in heavy ground cannot be entertained.
Rate of Knots last run was most impressive
"Not a strong beginners' chase by any means but it couldn't have been won in more impressive fashion by RATE OF KNOTS, who barely turned a hair and was value for any amount more than the official winning margin.
Ridden confidently just off the pace, her rider was content to let the front pair scrap it out as she cruised around in second gear and eased her way to the front over the last as her rivals toiled, before sauntering clear without being asked for any effort. After a very promising first runover fences earlier in the month, this confirmed she's very much on the upgrade and it's unlikely we've seen the best of her just yet."
McCoy on board today and 1.19 to place. HAs won on heavy but has also been pulled up by same jockey as today on heavy in March
Only alternative is in the first at Wolves and Fantasy Ride fits into the low grade handicap price gapper system which has been pretty much spot on . 1.33 is enticing but we have an apprentice who has never ridden the horse on board today
A good head 2nd last time over the same distance, dare we chance him with the amateur rider?
ALTERNATIVES
The Arse face Cardiff tonight and are 1.44 to prevail (4/9 in old money)
All down to team news this evening but the only real alternative to heavy ground betting. Target profit per dayers could lay Cardiff at 11 for target profit to cover the draw, but Arsenal should win and win well WITH A FIRST CHOICE SIDE
A very tricky day to decide all in all. Nothing stands out as rock solid at all given heavy ground and an apprentice on what would be my pick of the day in Fantasy Ride. I think the latter could be worth chancing today given the price gap and the grade of race
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