6/2

Safebreaker actually won yesterday - to be expected I suppose with 2nd, 3rd, 4th favs non runners. It's easy isn't it - takes no horse racing knowledge - pure logic and common sense!
Similar to Edas's race - a 5 runner race paying 3 the place. Edas was well beaten into 3rd yet still qualified for a place only payout ON BETFAIR ( bookies only 2 the place)
PURE PROBABILITY - no insider knowledge - no exhaustive form analysis- just common sense!

135 FONTWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Shoreacres, 6/4 Ruthenoise, 8/1 Highest Esteem, 33/1 Rockandahardplace, 50/1 Our Fugitive.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Positive market vibes about useful French-import Ruthenoise would be ominous but she'll still have her work cut out to beat the high-class bumper performer SHOREACRES, whose hurdle form stands out in this small field.

2nd fav is a non runner in what was priced up as a 2 horse race - surely ,then, Shoreacres by default? 1.05 to place says it all!



145 BANGOR ON DEE

BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Quartz De Thaix, 7/2 Duke Of Miskin, Strokestown, 11/2 Roganstown, 10/1 Galaxy Rock, 16/1 Reindeer Dippin, 20/1 Cross Kennon, 33/1 Gershwinner, 100/1 Howzat Harry.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: QUARTZ DE THAIX, who holds a couple of major entries, created a good impression when making a successful British debut and can see off the other hurdles winners Duke Of Miskin and Strokestown. Roganstown is a possible improver

9 runners down to 6 runners with only 2 horses under 33/1 in Quartz and Strokestown 1.07 and 1.12 and 3 to be placed

155 STHL

BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Kheskianto, 11/4 La Capriosa, 3/1 Diamond Surprise, 7/2 Gurteen Diamond, 10/1 Floods Of Tears.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: LA CAPRIOSA is the most exposed member of the party but should be all the better for three weeks off and, if granted anything like an easy lead up front, could be tough to reel in. Yesterday's winner Kheskianto is respected

Fav a non runner - one outsider only at 10/1 though and hopefully 3 playing for 2 places

La Capriosa - 1.65
Diamond Surprise -1.31
Gurteen diamond - 2.05
Floods of tears - 5.1

210 FONTWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Gauvain, 11/4 The Package, 3/1 Heathcote, 12/1 Black Beauty, 20/1 Sebastiano.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: HEATHCOTE has translated his considerable ability from hurdles to fences and can draw upon his positive experience round here to get the job done. Gauvain and The Package won't make it easy, though

The package a non runner along with outsider -Gauvain by default? 1.18 to place in a 3 horse race! Heathcote is 1.23

250 BANGOR
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Ping Pong Sivola, 9/2 Tastes Like More, 8/1 Za Beau, 12/1 Catch The Stars, 14/1 Marsh Court.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PING PONG SIVOLA produced a very bold and impressive front-running display at Cheltenham last month and seems unlikely to see another rival again presented with what looks a fairly straightforward opportunity

VEry well fancied last time out, Ping Pong is priced to go in again 1.17 to place

330 STHL

BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Whiskey Creek, 4/1 Godfrey Street, Wotashirtfull, 9/2 Bo McGinty, 6/1 Canadian Danehill, 8/1 First Order, 10/1 The Tatling.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The red-hot Whiskey Creek might just meet his match here in a competitive event. Most of them can be given a squeak but BO McGINTY seems to be running himself into some form and, with a strong pace seemingly assured, this should be run to suit Richard Fahey's old boy

Whiskey got up by a neck yesterday and I think is opposable today. Yes I laid the fecker yesterday and could have traded in running, and expect him to get beat today so will wade in again.

345 FONT
BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 Exmoor Ranger, 5/2 Mount Sandel, 25/1 Monzon, 33/1 Present Oriented.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The classy and improving EXMOOR RANGER has been found an excellent opportunity to bag his third win as a chaser and should go on to better things.[BDO]

2nd fav now clear market leader with Exmoor out Mount Sandel 1.19 to place in a 3 horse race - only 1 to beat to place

425 BANGOR
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Le Duc, 11/4 Limerick Boy, 5/1 Baby Run, 11/2 Brooklyn Breeze, 6/1 Kaldouas, 14/1 Tommy Spar, 20/1 Le Seychellois, 33/1 Gulabill, In Hot Pursuit, 100/1 Triple Seven.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Some high-class handicappers bid to make a successful switch to hunter chasing and the pick of them could be LE DUC, who was in grand form last spring and returns with his top yard firing

Again more non runners and if 3 the place, Limerick Boy would be a good place only option taking over favouratism with 2 perceived outsiders 1.27 to place in a 3 the place race - NOTE - hunter chase

435 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Esprit De Midas, 9/2 Dahama, 15/2 My Best Man, 10/1 Dancing Wave, Spinight.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ESPRIT DE MIDAS (nap) didn't look entirely straightforward when making a mockery of his initial handicap mark here last weekend but the money that came for him suggests the victory was very much expected, and he looks a good thing to go in again under a penalty

Not quite fitting into my donkeys system, but this is a 0-70 class 5 handicap with a clear price gapper ( especially so in the live betting market)] 1.13 to place

615 NAD AL SHEEBA
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Devotee, 11/4 Sos Brillante, 7/2 India Tiberina, 7/1 So Shiny, 14/1 Earth Living, Esta Bailando, 20/1 Fire Sale, 25/1 Estrela Boa, 33/1 Purple Sage, 66/1 Ever Loved.

Devotee well fancied with Frankie on board ( THAT Frankie, not Spencer!!) 1.12 to place (market not fully formed)

720 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Riguez Dancer, 7/2 Imperial Harry, 7/1 American Spin, 8/1 Mustajed, 10/1 Leslingtaylor, 14/1 Khun John, 16/1 King Supreme, Top Seed, 20/1 Anfield Road, Morbick, Sheer Fantastic, 33/1 Noubian.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Several interesting performers in opposition here, including easy Kempton winners American Spin and Imperial Harry, but RIGUEZ DANCER has been winning with such authority of late that he is again likely to be tough to beat

A winner the other day and we have another decision to make - will he win again or is he opposable as a multiple handicap winner going up the weights (of course we can leave the race alone) NON RUNNER NOW

750 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Where´s Reiley, 2/1 Speak The Truth, 5/2 Five Gold Rings, 14/1 Cindy Incidentally, Wee Bizzom, 50/1 Poaka Beck, 100/1 Cool Madam,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: In a weak maiden it will be interesting to see if there is confidence behind Where's Reiley or Five Gold Rings, but SPEAK THE TRUTH ran as well as he ever has when second at Lingfield last week and this could be his day

Original 8 runner race down to 6 runners - need to check on Betfair if 3 the place -YES STILL 3 THE PLACE 1.16 / 1.12 / 1.31 but the market really has not formed

920 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 St Moritz, 5/2 Changing The Guard, 7/1 Head Down, 14/1 Grand Honour, Luckydolly.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There was a lot to like about the successful debut of ST MORITZ at Lingfield last month and he is confidently expected to confirm his superiority over the third, Head Down. Changing The Guard is likely to prove a bigger threat

Head down is a non runner which produces an exaggerated price gap between the front 2 and the outsiders - something to exploit for place only purposes?
1.1 and 1.29 - again the markets are not formed at all
ONE A DAY

We must account for heavy ground ,but as I have said before, my over cautious attitude to heavy ground has cost me in the past - can we safely assume that the prices are reflective of ability or otherwise to handle heavy ground?

Shoreacres is obvious -1.22 to win and 1.05 to place. Personally I would back to win and trade out in running

1.07 for Quartz de Thaix again betrays the apparent ease of the task with 4 horses 33/1 or bigger and Strokestown at 1.12 - 3 TO PLACE as well

Gauvain at 1.18 has 1 to beat to place

Ping Pong Sivola is 1.17 to place

345 FONT - Moutn Sandel in the original betting forecast was one of only 2 horses sub 25/1 and is now fav in a 3 horse race at 1.17 - very appealing

750 WOLVES - Speak the truth looks good for a place in a 6 runner race with 2 outsiders and 3 places - has had plenty of runs for a maiden and a good 2nd last time out

CONCLUSION - I will back Shoreacres to win only and trade. Sticking purely to place only betting I would be happy with Shoreacres but at a bigger price I would go for Gauvain. HE only has to NOT FALL and we have an outstanding chance with only 1 to beat.
This is a day where I will place back quite a few horses given the opportunities presented by non runners and small fields creating excellent place only betting opportunities