Thursday, 26 February 2009

26/2

PLACE ONLY - The Old Pretender 2nd , An Innocent man unplaced (that's maiden hurdles for you!) , Razor Royale 1st 4/6 , Silk Affair 1st 2/13 ( MY ONE A DAY) , IT's all a racket 1st 8/11 , Yungaburra 4th (big drifter and hindsight -poor sprint seller) , 320 BAngor only Gold reef unplaced of the front 3 , Galileo Figaro lost ( on a hatrick and a drifter -as mentioned the market drift was the clue here ) , Ultimate limit 3rd ( one of 3 who were left clear and another ONE A DAY PLACE at a nicer 1.29 ) , I'm the decider wins , DAnte's storm wins , Sherwani Wolf 2nd , Hammersmith wins, Forty Thirty unplaced ( I did mention a horse who has failed to impress, and so he did )
MARKET MOVERS - The Dodgy Carey broke leg when on flat , Royal acclamation non runner , Agglestone Rock 3rd 9/4, Moment present 4/1 2nd in same race , BEarneen Boy 1st 7/2 ( another winner for the sub 5/1 market movers! after 2 yesterday) , Witch of the wave nk nk 4th (so close to placing! ) 9/1 Irish saint unplaced 8/1 , BEst profile unplaced 10/1 , Air Maze 1st 5/4 (early market move proved accurate) , Russian trigger 1st 12/1 (the money must have been down early when I saw the 6/1 and the money proved well placed!) , Dr McFab 11th 7/1 (was an early sub 5/1 mover but drifted over 5/1) , Catalan bay 4th 10/11 and Gunfigheter in the same race refused to race , What de you know Phil unplaced 14/1 , Timeshift 1 1/2 l 2nd 11/2 , Hill of Lujain 6th 8/1 , DAwn wind 3rd 6/1 and Cardinal James unplaced 4/1 , Rio Royale unplaced 5/1 , GAmbling Jack non runner and Countrywide comet unplaced 20/1

AGAIN, let's focus on the sub 5/1 market movers Agglestone rock 3rd 9/4 , Moment present 2nd 4/1 , Bearneen Boy 1st 7/2 , Air maze 1st 5/4 ,Catalan Bay 4th 10/11 , Cardinal James unplaced 4/1
Personally I would not havebet Air MAze and Catalan BAy but instead focussed on the each way(ish) prices including I suppose 9/4 so a 3rd, 2nd, 1st and unplaced

HAving great trouble with PC speed today so this will be brief and bare

300 TAUNTON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Quickbeam, 9/4 Predateur, 5/2 Mark The Book, 8/1 Lancaster Sound, 25/1 Sir Winston, 33/1 Spin The Gin, 50/1 Moon Bear, 100/1 Rock Captain.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With Quickbeam prone to mistakes and Predateur continually falling below expectations, it may pay to go for winning hurdler MARK THE BOOK, who shaped well over fences at Chepstow and, with a recent run to draw upon, can now show his true colours.[BDO]

Straight 8 - 3 over 50/1 - good probability - Sir Winston 12/1 - soft ground the concern

320 LUD
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Patsy Finnegan, 6/1 Ballinderry Park, 7/1 The Randy Bishop, 9/1 Karasakal, 10/1 Balthazar King, Walamo, 14/1 Archie Gunn, Brave Jewel, Rothres, 20/1 Chevy To The Levy, 25/1 Maree Hall.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PATSY FINNEGAN, officially 4lb ahead of the handicapper, has obvious credentials after the way he disposed of the opposition last week but there are plenty of other bang in-form stables with interesting runners, including Tony Carroll's The Randy Bishop, who will appreciate this step back up in trip over hurdles, and Gary Moore's Karasakal, who will appreciate this better ground and less forcing tactics.[PJ]
karasakil and Ballinderry Park possible market movers 4/1 and 11/2 - price gap dimininshed in live market

430 TAUNTON
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Qozak, 7/2 Postmaster, 10/1 Quinz, 14/1 Long Hop, 16/1 Kyoto, Sun Quest, 20/1 Dontsayathing, Paddys Honour, 25/1 Murfreesboro, 50/1 Own Up, Synonymy, 100/1 Awe, The Flying Phenom.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Postmaster is a very useful hurdler but he'll do well to successfully give weight to the classy French-import QOZAK (nap), who shaped really well on his debut for Paul Nicholls and has since impressed round here.[BDO]

Now 2/5 and only 3 sub double figutres
1.09
450 LUD
BETTING FORECAST: 8/15 Bob Hall, 5/1 Alvino, 9/1 Rowdy Yeats, 12/1 Gallik Dawn, 16/1 Enitsag, Super Nomad, 20/1 Milesian King, 33/1 Cassia Heights, Idbury, 50/1 Classic Shot, Give Me Love, 66/1 Howard Howard, Isotop, Verchoyles Lad.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Rowdy Yeats should have something to offer in these races but he wasn't at his best on his recent return and BOB HALL (nap), who ran so well in better company at Sandown recently, makes far more appeal. Alvino is preferred for the forecast.[EMW]

Alvino now 3/1

510 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Shifting Gold, 5/1 Diamond Surprise, Miss Christophene, Trueblue Wizard, 7/1 Hawkspring, 8/1 Mullitovermaurice, 16/1 Lady Salama.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Shifting Gold has done well since fitted with blinkers but one that appeals more is the consistent DIAMOND SURPRISE, who'll gain confidence from a recent course win and ought to benefit from this longer trip.[BDO]

True blue wizard sub 5/1 ( 3/1 at mo) so one for my system if staying below

520 LUD
BETTING FORECAST: 2/7 Eradicate, 6/1 Markila, Samsons Son, 14/1 Thomondgate, 33/1 Marino Prince, Miss Ladybird, Samurai Warrior, 40/1 Wandering Minstral, 50/1 Wahoo Sam, 66/1 Kenai, Missinlucan, Mr Burton, Right You Are, 150/1 Lake Barrine, 200/1 Deano Rosa.

Eradicate obvious1.06

645 NAD
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Presvis, 5/1 Barbaricus, 10/1 Hearthstead Maison, Once More Dubai, 14/1 Halicarnassus, Oracle West, With Interest, World Ruler, 25/1 Bound By Honour, Hello Morning, Yahrab, 33/1 Eddie Jock,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Although the price is going to be prohibitive, PRESVIS (nap) is by far and away the most likely winner after posting a performance that would have seen him hold his own in minor Group company on his UAE debut over C&D in January. He could have been hit harder than the 6lb he went up for that impressive success and this lightly raced sort, who is unbeaten in two starts under Ryan Moore, is capable of further progress. Barbaricus looks the chief danger if settling better than on his UAE debut. [RY]

Presvis01.26

ONE A DAY

Really rushed today as computer was hit by wuauclt and svchost.exe slowing it down making it imptactical to use!
Qozak 1.09 but big move into 2/5
Presvis would be my bigger priced alternative at 1.26 ( illiquid market)

































Now odds on but in a seller





























































MARKET MOVERS

210 FOLK
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Lord Tomnoddy, 5/2 The Old Pretender, 13/2 King Edmund, 12/1 Dorothy´s Friend, 16/1 Costa Courta, Dundry, 20/1 Rear Gunner, The Dodger Carey, 25/1 Prince Zafonic, Pugilist, Rebeccas Choice, 33/1 Maderson Blue, Majic Moments, 80/1 Mr Bojangels, 100/1 Giggles O´Shea,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The Old Pretender is clearly well capable of winning a race like this and conditions will not be nearly so taxing as those with which he blew his chance here last time out, but LORD TOMNODDY (nap) showed comparable form and lots of promise on his debut at Taunton.[RA]

Old Pretender now 7/4 fav
The Dodger Carey 20/1 in betting forecast now 6/1 in places!

230 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Many Welcomes, 9/2 All You Need, 8/1 Bold Diva, Great Knight, 9/1 Argentine, Imperial Djay, 10/1 Tamino, 12/1 Hunt The Bottle, 16/1 Blakeshall Quest, Piccolo Diamante, Royal Acclamation, 20/1 Kirkie, 25/1 Mr Skipiton.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Recent C&D winners All You Need and Many Welcomes are respected, particularly the latter, but they could be worth taking on with GREAT KNIGHT, who shaped encouragingly in a slightly higher grade here on his first outing for Sylvester Kirk and that form has been boosted since.[SB]

Royal Acclamation 16/1 betting forecast 4/1 in places
2 non runnerswere 8/1 and 12/1 may have impacted the market?

250 BANGOR
BETTING FORECAST: 9/2 Agglestone Rock, Moment Present, 5/1 Loco Grande, 11/2 Sacrilege, 7/1 Red And White, Rory Boy, 8/1 Akarshan, 12/1 Dontpaytheferryman, Karky Schultz.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Several to consider. Moment Present, who is held in some regard at home and looks just the sort for this type of contest, may be able to confirm form with Loco Grande but it could be worth hoping for improvement from RED AND WHITE now she can race on some less demanding going.[PJ]

Slight move the front 2 (11/4 and 5/2 live market) not templated 16/1 system though as per Donald yesterday

310 FOLK
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Wasntme, 11/4 Narlen, 4/1 Anna Panna, 7/1 Riccardo, 10/1 Bearneen Boy, 14/1 Debord, 20/1 Kourosh.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: WASNTME and Narlen are the only ones bringing any kind of momentum into the race and preference is for Colin Tizzard's winning pointer, who should benefit for coming back in distance if connections use the same positive tactics that were adopted at Taunton last week.[AWJ]

Bearneen Boy 9/2 in places

330 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 La Diosa, 5/1 Nicky Nutjob, Strikemaster, 13/2 Kochanski, 8/1 Screaming Brave, 10/1 Key Of Fortune, 12/1 Irish Saint, 14/1 Spring Quartet, 16/1 Saffron´s Son, Witch Of The Wave, 20/1 Kneesy Earsy Nosey, Miss Cracklinrosie.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: La Diosa is 2-2 for her new stable but this is a more open race than a quick glance at the form figures might suggest. Several of these may do better now sent handicapping and/or upped to this trip and the vote goes to KEY OF FORTUNE, whose latest effort has been boosted by all four of those that finished in front of her

Irish Saint and Witch of the wave

350 BANGOR
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Ultimate Limit, 6/1 Ballyvoge, 8/1 Never So Blue, 10/1 Cave Hill, 14/1 Best Profile, Darina´s Boy, Huckleberry, 16/1 Craven, 20/1 Durante, Lost In Normandy, 25/1 Aztec Warrior.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It's hard to look beyond ULTIMATE LIMIT, who's been a revelation since joining Alan Fleming and, off a featherweight, will be tough to beat.[BDO]


BEst profile 10/1

400 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Garra Molly, 9/4 Air Maze, 9/2 Taminas Desert, 8/1 Happy And Glorious, 14/1 Herecomesbella, Wusuul, 25/1 Give, Mill Beattie, 33/1 Thirtyfourthstreet, 50/1 Will Exell.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Garra Molly just about sets the standard on the pick of her turf efforts over further but AIR MAZE, who should be suited by another step up in distance, wouldn't need to improve much further to get off the mark. Support for Taminas Desert would be interesting.[SB]

Air maze now 5/4 in places - and 2 2nds to her name - but a maiden fillies race

410 FOLK
BETTING FORECAST: 9/2 Iwillrememberyou, 6/1 Apatura Dik, 13/2 New Perk, 7/1 Lyes Green, Maletton, The Ring, 9/1 Topless, 10/1 Enroblim Trop, 12/1 Pass Me A Dime, 16/1 Mister Apple´s, Monzon, Russian Trigger, 20/1 Dr Hart, 40/1 Alderbrook Girl.

Russian trigger now 6/1

430 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Safin, 9/2 Ice Bellini, 13/2 Rough Sketch, 7/1 Generous Star, 12/1 Drumhallagh, Josh You Are, 14/1 Cantabilly, Noubian, 16/1 Border Tale, Capitalise, 20/1 King De Lune, Millagros, 25/1 Dr McFab.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A few of these have dropped to handy marks on their best form, while there are also good reasons to consider Ice Bellini and Rough Sketch, but the vote goes to the in-form SAFIN who followed up a recent hurdles success in decent style at Southwell on Friday and is 2-2 under Graham Gibbons.[SB]

Dr McFab 3/1 , 11/4 in places - WHAT A MOVE! Drumhallagh less significant at 8/1

500 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Catalan Bay, 4/1 Caprio, 6/1 Cornus, Mr Macattack, 8/1 Guildenstern, Obezyana, 14/1 Orpen Wide, 20/1 Gunfighter.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A mark of 75 could prove lenient for CATALAN BAY (nap) judged on her Australian form and she can be expected to build on a promising British debut. Caprio and Cornus are feared most.[SB]

Gunfighter 8/1 and Catalan Bay now 5/4 solid at head of market

510 FOLK
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Sherwani Wolf, 7/1 J´Adhere, 8/1 Amber Shell, 12/1 Pretti Woman, 16/1 What De Know Phil, 20/1 Devoran Quay, Joli Al, 33/1 Another Miracle, Justalittlebitmore.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There is very little in the way of racecourse evidence but what there is suggests that SHERWANI WOLF is a useful prospect and likely to set a daunting standard for today's newcomers.[RA]

Slight move for What de Know Phil now 10/1 in places

520 BANGOR
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Edge Of Town, 9/2 Lough Inchiquinn, 11/2 Jubilee Queen, Shannina, 9/1 Marwan, 10/1 Lannacombe Clover, 12/1 Timeshift, 14/1 Maidstone Maresaca, Tough Cookie, 20/1 My Little Goldie, Spring Haze, 25/1 Holy Balloney, 50/1 Torta Nel Cielo, 66/1 Blues Baby Daisey, Mister Rez.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Mick Easterby has been mopping up this type of race recently and has another likely contender in LOUGH INCHIQUINN, who is given a narrow vote over likely improvers Edge Of Town and Shannina.[PJ]


Timeshift 6/1 in places

600 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Giddywell, 7/2 Waldorf, 5/1 Stoic Leader, 6/1 Hurricane Coast, Machinate, 14/1 Speagle, 16/1 Make Amends, 20/1 Hill Of Lujain, 25/1 Berrymead, 33/1 Magical Mimi.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It's still difficult to be sure what WALDORF's optimum trip is likely to be but he looks worth this step back in distance and, the least exposed runner, may be able to make an impact off a modest mark on his handicap debut. Giddywell and Machinate are others for the shortlist.[SB]

Hill of Lujain 12/1 in plac es

720 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Forty Thirty, 6/1 Cardinal James, 8/1 Soul Singer, 12/1 Treasure Islands, 16/1 Dawn Wind, Rossatron, 20/1 Rannoch Rose, 25/1 Double Exposure, 50/1 Wild By Nature.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Forty Thirty sets the standard but he needs to settle better than he did on his reappearance and at the likely prices he could be worth taking on. Soul Singer is capable of better, but CARDINAL JAMES showed a bit of promise in two bumpers and is being introduced in a very winnable event here.[PSm]


Cardinal james 3/1 in places and Dawn wind 6/1 in places

820 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Emirates World, 3/1 Markyg, 5/1 Auld Arty, Grand Honour, 8/1 Give Us A Song, 12/1 Rio Royale, 16/1 Asian Tale.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Auld Arty and Grand Honour should both run their race under these conditions and are respected, but MARKYG and Emirates World may be open to more improvement. Preference is for the former, who looks on a very competitive mark on the pick of his juvenile form.[PSm]
Rio Royale 7/1 in places

920 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Kielty´s Folly, 9/2 Inquisitress, 6/1 Amber Moon, 8/1 Flamestone, Kinsman, Whodunit, 10/1 Daggerman, Mr Rev, 16/1 Countrywide Comet, 20/1 Bet Noir, Gambling Jack, 33/1 Flipacoin, 50/1 Where To Now.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Kielty's Folly ran a better race at Wolverhampton and should go well but plenty looks in place for a big run from INQUISITRESS and she can capitalise on her tumbling mark.[PSm]

Countrywide comet now 12/1 in places and Gambling Jack 14/1 in places

ONE A DAY PLACE ONLY BETTING
SHORTLIST
215 DOWN - An innocent man - 3 2nd places and 1.11 to place but this is a maiden hurdle over questionable ground
240 FOLK - Silk affair at 1.07 is in a race with 3 clear outsiders and 3 to place -unlike Song of Songs who only had 2 to place
300 WOLVES - Yungaburra - drop from class 4 to class 6 selling stakes today and a kind of borderline price gapper in a poor handicap ( yes I know this is a seller) Heavy odds on shot now - 2 non runners redce field to straight 8 1.18 to place
Slight concern Robert Winston onboard has not ridden horse before - where's Adam Kirby?
350 BANGOR - very eyecatching price gap here for Ultimate Limit " off a feather weight" - out of the handicap ( not sure what that means!) Cannot ignore this price gap though, BUT 3 miles is a long way 1.29 to place
400 WOLVES - Air maze is of interest having been backed into favouratism 2 2nd places albeit at a furlong less than today , but a progressive enough profile and should come in the first 3 ( backed as if tthat is a definite consideration) 1.19 to place
510 FOLK - Sherwani Wolf a big price gapper but no experience among market rivals means how on earth can we tell how good they are? 1.1 to place

All strong in their own way this lot above. For simplicity sake, Silk affair is the one today at 1.07 with 3 places, and 3 outsiders at 66/1 and one at 40/1 in an 8 runner race!
Yungaburra does appeal with the drop in class but this is a 5 furlong seller but 1.18 bumps the price up a bit
350 BANGOR - Ultimate Limit pushes the prices up further to 1.29 - this I suppose relates to the race distance of 3 miles which is a long way. HE has the profile of a HTB selection (SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It's hard to look beyond ULTIMATE LIMIT, who's been a revelation since joining Alan Fleming and, off a featherweight, will be tough to beat)
"escapes penalty for last week´s easy success for this jockey and conditions suit; hard to beat, even from 3lb out of handicap"

Here's a definition of "out of the handicap"
You often hear about a horse competing in a race from out of the handicap. When this happens, a trainer will appreciate that they're biting off more than they can chew in the hope that their horse has the ability to make up for a deficiency in merit that the handicapper deems the horse to have.
In short, horses that run from out the handicap are runnig with more
weight than they should be (according to their official rating), but
have no choice as the bottom weight is a minimum of 10 stone. The more
weight the top horse carries, more chance the bottom horse will 'stay
in' the handicap.

WHat is the significance of this?

We can chance the big price gap as our pointer to Ultimate Limit as a selection. At 1.29 it is a very appealing price comparitive to Silk affair. I would personally follow this bet in running and react accordingly, my total confidence in the bet dampened by the "out of the hadnicap " thing - I simply don't have a clear grasp of that.
CONCLUSION
Silk affair for me today at a crap price is my rock solid one at 1.07
Ultimate Limit would be my riskier higher priced selection at 1.29

1 comment:

Clive Keeling said...

Jacks lad 400 sthl -0 12/1 betrting forecasyt 4/1 2nd